Mt Kenya GEMA - eventually voted Ruto around 80-83% with Raila scoring 15-17%.
As per my scenario - Ruto would have won by 51% if he won GEMA by 80% - he won by I believe 50.5% - exactly 51% I predicted2027 - Ruto if he keeps Mt kenya east - as is likely if he retains DP - he will go down to about 1/3 of Mt kenya - if Ruto was playing at.
He will drop to about 39%.
He will need 11% to bridge the divide.
That 11% he can easily get by improving 1% everywhere in all the areas. Incumbency and little rigging is enough.
That easy scenarios that doenst include merging with Raila's ODM.
If he merges with Raila's ODM without them demanding DPORK - easy win.
The big question of 2022 is undoubtedly how GEMA will register, turn up and vote?
How would Ruto do with 50,60,70,80, 90 percent of GEMA and with a reduced turnout (10 percent) - with few increment in Bomet (Raila had 10 percent), Turkana, Narok,etc.
The Rough MOAS answers below
50 percent - 42%
60 percent - 45%
70 percent - 48%
80 percent - 51%
90 percent - 53%
