Author Topic: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.  (Read 51161 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #40 on: August 23, 2021, 01:17:31 PM »
For all what is worth

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #41 on: August 23, 2021, 01:19:29 PM »
Interesting breakdown - appear Coast Raila has lost - and Ruto lead western :) :) - what is going on there?

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #42 on: August 29, 2021, 03:39:15 PM »
Some demographic data I found on facebook - that explain why Mt Gema registers 60 percent of their population while everyone else struggle at 40 percent.

Gema have 65 percent of their population aged above 18 - Homabay (Luo Nyanza) - 47 percent

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #43 on: August 29, 2021, 03:46:10 PM »
Other good data from this guy

The election year is here with us, the countdown has begun and less than 350 days to go! The rush for the numbers is nigh and who has what numbers and where is soon becoming the hymn! The tyranny of number
IEBC is likely to be conducting the mass voter registration soon, and as usual, I have tried to estimate where the new numbers will be.
The table below has the estimated numbers by county and this is based on the project population for 2022 and the estimated voting population (18 years +)
Based on my estimations, Nairobi is expected to have the highest number of new voters followed by Kiambu, Nakuru, Kajiado and Machakos.
These 5 counties are home to almost 2.2 Million who will be over 18 years by end of the yet, yet are unregistered, which is nearly a third of all eligible voters
By region, the 10 pastoralist counties have a potential of 1.6 Million new voters making it the richest basket. Nairobi comes second with a potential of 788k new voters.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2021, 05:15:23 PM »
Nyakera has is own poll in Muranga - Look like Ruto sweeping the floor

Offline RV Pundit

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Offline RV Pundit

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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #47 on: September 08, 2021, 08:01:02 AM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #48 on: September 08, 2021, 08:02:25 AM »
Ukambani forum - look like 2022 presidential poll is a mere formality. Ruto running alone as only serious candidate - Raila has clearly lost his mojo and his gone with BBI - and OKA jokers are dead on arrival.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #49 on: September 09, 2021, 01:26:15 PM »
Without opinion polls; all we have to do with; are online polls

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #50 on: September 12, 2021, 01:06:13 AM »
Some combination

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #51 on: September 14, 2021, 01:55:46 PM »
Mass vote registration - parties need to concentrate here because election is half-won here. Mt kenya have registered 60 percent of their population. The rest of the country doing 40 - some even 30 percent. Part of it is the structure of the population but also political unawareness


Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #52 on: September 14, 2021, 03:50:20 PM »
One big factor is people from Western and Nyanza who reside in Nairobi and Mombasa during census want to be counted as from origin counties then during electioneering period register in Nairobi and Mombasa but when it comes to Election all flee Nairobi on fear of Violence hence not voting at all.
2017 a week to election all higways yo Nyanza and Western were full with PSVs and Private vehicles. A big factor why Kidero ans Sifuna Lost Governor and Senator posts respectively.




 https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/kenya-s-capital-faces-exodus-over-fears-of-widespread-electoral-violence/50000262-3344343
In response to these population movements, Raila Odinga _ the leader of both the main opposition platform, the National Super Alliance _ and the Orange Democratic Movement(ODM) asked his followers to "remain where they are registered as voters and vote."




Mass vote registration - parties need to concentrate here because election is half-won here. Mt kenya have registered 60 percent of their population. The rest of the country doing 40 - some even 30 percent. Part of it is the structure of the population but also political unawareness



Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #53 on: September 14, 2021, 05:41:10 PM »
Maybe during old Dec election. August specifically deal with that problem where urban voters would be split btw going to christmas or voting. This was Moi igneious way to disenfranchise urban voters who would not voter for him...something Museveni need to borrow.

The big factor is demographic structure - Mt kenya are transitioning into more adults than kids - which is very nice economic wise - it mean more people working feeding less people - it mean less kids in schools - so rather than building new schools or dispenaries - their CDFS and counties are focused on improving quality of the existing ones.

I think on average - 65 percent of Mt kenya are adults - above 18s.

The rest of the country are doing 50% under 18s - and even lower in semi-arid regions - who are seeing baby boom.

But in the future - the rest of country will catch up with Mt kenya - and that demographic advantage will disappear.

For now Mt kenya despite being about 22-23 percent of population - have 28-30 percent of registered votes.

One big factor is people from Western and Nyanza who reside in Nairobi and Mombasa during census want to be counted as from origin counties then during electioneering period register in Nairobi and Mombasa but when it comes to Election all flee Nairobi on fear of Violence hence not voting at all.
2017 a week to election all higways yo Nyanza and Western were full with PSVs and Private vehicles. A big factor why Kidero ans Sifuna Lost Governor and Senator posts respectively.




 https://www.efe.com/efe/english/world/kenya-s-capital-faces-exodus-over-fears-of-widespread-electoral-violence/50000262-3344343
In response to these population movements, Raila Odinga _ the leader of both the main opposition platform, the National Super Alliance _ and the Orange Democratic Movement(ODM) asked his followers to "remain where they are registered as voters and vote."




Mass vote registration - parties need to concentrate here because election is half-won here. Mt kenya have registered 60 percent of their population. The rest of the country doing 40 - some even 30 percent. Part of it is the structure of the population but also political unawareness



Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #54 on: September 15, 2021, 05:33:07 PM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #55 on: September 29, 2021, 04:29:06 PM »
Ndii own simulation
/photo/1

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #56 on: September 30, 2021, 07:24:22 AM »
Radio Africa (Star) - Muranga Poll

Kangata looks likely to win - followed by Jamleck Kamau.
Ruto enjoys 50 percent support - followed by undecided at almost 20 percent - Wa Iria with 8 percent - Raila 5 percent - PK 5 percent.
Jubilee suprisingly still is popular with 35 percent - followed by UDA.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2021, 06:04:25 PM »
Rough MOASS - October 2021.

I have added Raila (his candidature firming up) - and lumped all the OKA (I still doubt they will all run - I see them collapsing by mid-march except maybe maDVD who can be stubborn and seem to pretend to campaign - weta and kalonzo are broke - Gideon hate wasting money - so wont run just for it's sake).

GEMA - Ruto I believe has about 75 percent of GEMA; I generously given Raila 20 percent

I believe OKA - combined will score 17 percent - mostly from Vihiga, Kitui, Makueni, Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Nairobi, Mombasa, Baringo - were mostly kambas, maragoli, bukusu and few tugen-pokots.

The results as of now
Ruto still win round 1 - with 51 percent.
Raila follows with 33 percent - Note increasing GEMA votes by 5 percent to 25 - gives him 1 percent increase to 34 percent.
Oka - 17 percent.

Ruto looks to nick this in first round - without even talking to any of the OKA principles - and this early.

They are still few Key Variables/Events to watch for.
1) Voter Registration - will affect the numbers - and possibly gives us clues of the expected turnout (voter enthusiasm)
2) More realignment - Coast/Northern Kenya is very unstable now - GEMA is going through a storm - I still believe many governors are still fearful of CID - while others in gov - are busy eating money until Feb 10th when they have to resign.
3) (OKA) Coalition agreement - This will be left to May- to the deadline- so the stakes are high and the money the likes of Weta and Kalonzo will ask will be a billion plus.
4) Uhuru byzantine moves - is he really for Raila? Will he come out gun blazing or will he stay on the background.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #58 on: October 25, 2021, 11:31:59 AM »
My first MOAS on 2022 - some counties - aspirant who are not named here need not bother

COUNTY   Governor
Nyeri   Kahiga
Kirinyaga   Too close to call - Martha versus  Ngirici
Murang'a   Senator Irungu  v Jamleck
Nyandarua   Too close to call -  Faith Versus Kimemia
Embu   Cecil Mbarire
TharakaNithi   Too close
ElgeyoMarakw   Too close
Kericho   Charles Keter
Baringo   Stanley Kiptis
Kiambu   Wainaina Jungle
Bomet   Hillary Barchok
Meru   Too close to call
WestPokot   Prof Lonyangapuo
Mandera   Too close
Laikipia   Joshua Irungu
Nandi   Too close - Koskey Alex versus Stephen Sang
Nakuru   Susan Kihika
Marsabit   Too close - Ukuru  Yatani versus Mohammed Ali
UasinGishu   Too close -Bitok versus  Buzeki
Isiolo   Too close
TanaRiver   Too close
Garissa   Too close
Lamu   Too close
Samburu   Too close
Narok   Patrick Ntutu
Kajiado   Too close - Ole Metito on lead
Nairobi   Too close
TransNzoia   Dr Chris Wamalwa
Wajir   Too close
Turkana   Too close
TaitaTaveta   John Muruti
Kwale   Deputy Governor Acheni
Kisii   Prof Ongeri
Nyamira   Too close
Kilifi   Too close - Mungaro versus Aisha Jumwa
Mombasa   Too close - Nassir versus Suleiman versus Hassan
Bungoma   Ken Lusaka
Machakos   Too close - Muthama versus Ndeti
Kitui   Too close - Charity versus Wambua
Makueni   Kilonzo Jnr
Migori   Ochilo  Ayacko
Kakamega   Too close - Malala versus Khawale
Busia   Too close
Vihiga   Too close
Kisumu   Too close
Siaya   James Orengo
HomaBay   Evans Kidero

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #59 on: October 29, 2021, 08:58:34 AM »