Shitstorm in Punditville

[Nefertiti]

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https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/leaders-unite-tame-ruto-in-battle-for-2022-3333622

In Mt Kenya, Nation has learnt that the DP’s foot soldiers are reluctant to join UDA for fear of facing a backlash from the voters.

Despite backing the DP’s candidature for 2022 and his “Hustler Nation” campaign mantra, his lieutenants in the region are said to be unenthusiastic about associating with UDA and prefer fringe parties in the region.

Those in the know say it’s the reason the DP withdrew from the Juja Parliamentary mini-poll slated for May 18.

However, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro insists UDA remains the party of choice in the region.

[RV Pundit]

Uda will give way to hustler nation party..uhuru is working hard to undo but time is his biggest enemy and COVID..so Ruto should just wait it out like last year and come next year everyone for himself

[Nefertiti]

2 months old UDA is in disarray as 0-EQ Muthama repel everyone. Once again Ruto incompetence in running a national party is blatantly obvious.

Uda will give way to hustler nation party..uhuru is working hard to undo but time is his biggest enemy and COVID..so Ruto should just wait it out like last year and come next year everyone for himself

[Nefertiti]

Pundit this BBI line-up loading... tribe is eating hustler lunch bila huruma

Uhuru holds talks with coast governors Joho, Kingi and Mvurya

[Njuri Ncheke]

Robina do you believe Baba will fit in this BBI equation?

[Nefertiti]

Robina do you believe Baba will fit in this BBI equation?

Yup. Uhuru is promoting tribal kings as chess pieces in NARC 2. Ruto is still reeling from the round 1 dog-beating. Even Pundit here sounds docile.. the bravado and hubris are gone 

[Njuri Ncheke]

Robina do you believe Baba will fit in this BBI equation?

Yup. Uhuru is promoting tribal kings as chess pieces in NARC 2. Ruto is still reeling from the round 1 dog-beating. Even Pundit here sounds docile.. the bravado and hubris are gone 

So baba will be the BBI dynasty presidential candidate?

[Nefertiti]

Robina do you believe Baba will fit in this BBI equation?

Yup. Uhuru is promoting tribal kings as chess pieces in NARC 2. Ruto is still reeling from the round 1 dog-beating. Even Pundit here sounds docile.. the bravado and hubris are gone 

So baba will be the BBI dynasty presidential candidate?

Yes, Baba is the BBI candidate. For one if they were to betray him - they are smart enough not to do it before BBI crosses the Rubicon. This latest move is decisively going to rout Ruto in Mt Kenya. Now Baba really needs Uhuru, and the Sacred crew are more secure in system grasp. The real person being played is William Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Robina we will back if we survive Korona..I think we are in checkmate position between Raila,Ruto and Uhuru.Uhuru strength has been to play both Baba and Ruto.As 2022 approaches he cannot do that.Obviously everyone knows except insane Robina think Raila is an option in uhuru game..never ever..Ruto can reconcile with uhuru easily coz there is not ideological..just you outstole me jealousy..but Raila is feared for lack of word..see Magufuli or Idi kind of mercurial nature of leader...feared.Uhuru wants the prince Gideon.The tricky part remain GEMA people are still protecting king Ruto..checkmatjng Uhuru...so Uhuru has gone to Raila corner and takes his pawns and pieces....made them all little princes...Odinga now very lonely and is threatening to join Ruto corner.Gema people in Ruto are saying go to hell.Uhuru is waiting for entry point to gema hearts...Raila working with Ruto..is golden chance...but Ruto is aware..so I think Rarua cerelac alliance will be underground .Bbi imekunywa maji coz odm want to vote it down to force referendum while uhuru does not want referendum but gains immediately

[Nefertiti]

Pundit I agree on a few points but not all...

Uhuru has/is weakening Raila - true. Uhuru has installed tribal kings and this makes him more powerful while they all need him.

Uhuru has/is betraying Raila - doubtful. One Kenya cannot win PORK on their own, therefore this is unlikely. Weakening Raila makes it easier to strike a deal under BBI lineup. None of the Sacred flowergirls feels entitled to PORK like Raila & Ruto so it easy to manage them as pawns.

BBI is dead - nope. Tribal gods need BBI like air - it guarantees power-sharing and hybrid which allow them to run for MP without losing face then possibly land CS. This why Kingi-Mvurya want local party for bargaining and ready to dump Raila-Ruto for pocket change. There will be squabbles in JLAC committee but Speakers Muturi and Lusaka will rule BBI bill cannot be amended. Orengo noise and plenary numbers don't matter cause only referendum will decide popular initiative. Now, Raila cannot oppose referendum after singing BBI for 3 years without serious PR/credibility nightmare. Ruto equally cannot oppose without totally losing few remaining Mt Kenya disciples like Ndindi Nyoro. Already literally all Gema MPs in Kieleweke and Tangatanga have ganged up against any amendments that dilute 1M1V1S. Raila at worst is likely to go watermelon with Ruto - but more likely go Yes hypocritically (shingo upande) like 2010.

I agree Uhuru-Raila-Ruto have struck checkmate. Obviously Uhuru is the kingmaker. Once judiciary 7-cases combo get dispensed - it back to business - there is nothing that even remotely indicates Uhuru prefers Ruto over Raila. Ruto-Raila alliance of course faces the lineup conundrum as neither can step down for the other. Also Raila seems to think joining Ruto will further dilute his reformer image. But never say never in politics.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit - Ruto might need to step down for ODM in Bonchari as show of good faith. UDA is a knock-off version of URP It been downhill for Ruto to see him courting Raila on air.

[RV Pundit]

Gema are king maker.Uhuru is using gov largese n deep states.uhuru has lost gema including kikuyu core..he has only won hell gates n ruiru thanks to industrial odm workers..otherwise huruma Rv ward again too many Luos in langas and no need to reopen kiambaa in same ward so uda stood down otherwise uda and kuria has beat jubilee.  Watch gema.Raila is skunk cannot be sold in gema and has cost uhuru heavily.Uhuru want to dump him and Ruto should not pick him.Wacha akule ujeuri.Uhuru believe dumping Raila gives him an earing...that why in my Kenya bbi has been divorced from him.The battle is on gema..largest tribal solid reliable block of nearly 30%.Uhuru  want to regain it then barter it to non Raila..likely gideon or fellow kikuyu...double trouble. RAILA MAMBO YAKE KWISHA.Kisii sioni jubilee wacha...odm has zero mp and it's not there zone.Odm governor are with Matiangi. Matiangi ni jubilee. SO RAILA WILL BE TAMED IN LUO NYANZA.

[RV Pundit]

Pundit - Ruto might need to step down for ODM in Bonchari as show of good faith. UDA is a knock-off version of URP It been downhill for Ruto to see him courting Raila on air.

why would he endanger gema support by doing that..Raila and Uhuru waendelee kusalamiani

[RV Pundit]

Pundit I agree on a few points but not all...

Uhuru has/is weakening Raila - true. Uhuru has installed tribal kings and this makes him more powerful while they all need him.

Uhuru has/is betraying Raila - doubtful. One Kenya cannot win PORK on their own, therefore this is unlikely. Weakening Raila makes it easier to strike a deal under BBI lineup. None of the Sacred flowergirls feels entitled to PORK like Raila & Ruto so it easy to manage them as pawns.

BBI is dead - nope. Tribal gods need BBI like air - it guarantees power-sharing and hybrid which allow them to run for MP without losing face then possibly land CS. This why Kingi-Mvurya want local party for bargaining and ready to dump Raila-Ruto for pocket change. There will be squabbles in JLAC committee but Speakers Muturi and Lusaka will rule BBI bill cannot be amended. Orengo noise and plenary numbers don't matter cause only referendum will decide popular initiative. Now, Raila cannot oppose referendum after singing BBI for 3 years without serious PR/credibility nightmare. Ruto equally cannot oppose without totally losing few remaining Mt Kenya disciples like Ndindi Nyoro. Already literally all Gema MPs in Kieleweke and Tangatanga have ganged up against any amendments that dilute 1M1V1S. Raila at worst is likely to go watermelon with Ruto - but more likely go Yes hypocritically (shingo upande) like 2010.

I agree Uhuru-Raila-Ruto have struck checkmate. Obviously Uhuru is the kingmaker. Once judiciary 7-cases combo get dispensed - it back to business - there is nothing that even remotely indicates Uhuru prefers Ruto over Raila. Ruto-Raila alliance of course faces the lineup conundrum as neither can step down for the other. Also Raila seems to think joining Ruto will further dilute his reformer image. But never say never in politics.

Raila want referendum so prepare for defeat of BBI in senate forcing a referendum using WIn WIn.Ruto will work with Raila on that .Uhuru role in BBI will then to provide Money or not when court cases are done.Iebc are injuncted until cases heard n determined

[Nefertiti]

Gema are king maker.Uhuru is using gov largese n deep states.uhuru has lost gema including kikuyu core..he has only won hell gates n ruiru thanks to industrial odm workers..otherwise huruma Rv ward again too many Luos in langas and no need to reopen kiambaa in same ward so uda stood down otherwise uda and kuria has beat jubilee.  Watch gema.Raila is skunk cannot be sold in gema and has cost uhuru heavily.Uhuru want to dump him and Ruto should not pick him.Wacha akule ujeuri.Uhuru believe dumping Raila gives him an earing...that why in my Kenya bbi has been divorced from him.The battle is on gema..largest tribal solid reliable block of nearly 30%.Uhuru  want to regain it then barter it to non Raila..likely gideon or fellow kikuyu...double trouble. RAILA MAMBO YAKE KWISHA.Kisii sioni jubilee wacha...odm has zero mp and it's not there zone.Odm governor are with Matiangi. Matiangi ni jubilee. SO RAILA WILL BE TAMED IN LUO NYANZA.

Hell's Gate margin shows Kikuyu split 50-50 with Luo flower-pickers giving Jubilee the edge. Anyway Juja tells us the true status of UDA in Gema: if Ruto backing was solid he would be dying to scorn Uhuru and Murathes. Now he is hiding behind Moses Kuria's PEP  should shit hit the fan. Bonchari don't be so sure UDA might face worse embarassment than ODM.  UDA so far lacks national traction and momentum after string of losses with no win in horizon. One Kenya is leading the pack.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit I agree on a few points but not all...

Uhuru has/is weakening Raila - true. Uhuru has installed tribal kings and this makes him more powerful while they all need him.

Uhuru has/is betraying Raila - doubtful. One Kenya cannot win PORK on their own, therefore this is unlikely. Weakening Raila makes it easier to strike a deal under BBI lineup. None of the Sacred flowergirls feels entitled to PORK like Raila & Ruto so it easy to manage them as pawns.

BBI is dead - nope. Tribal gods need BBI like air - it guarantees power-sharing and hybrid which allow them to run for MP without losing face then possibly land CS. This why Kingi-Mvurya want local party for bargaining and ready to dump Raila-Ruto for pocket change. There will be squabbles in JLAC committee but Speakers Muturi and Lusaka will rule BBI bill cannot be amended. Orengo noise and plenary numbers don't matter cause only referendum will decide popular initiative. Now, Raila cannot oppose referendum after singing BBI for 3 years without serious PR/credibility nightmare. Ruto equally cannot oppose without totally losing few remaining Mt Kenya disciples like Ndindi Nyoro. Already literally all Gema MPs in Kieleweke and Tangatanga have ganged up against any amendments that dilute 1M1V1S. Raila at worst is likely to go watermelon with Ruto - but more likely go Yes hypocritically (shingo upande) like 2010.

I agree Uhuru-Raila-Ruto have struck checkmate. Obviously Uhuru is the kingmaker. Once judiciary 7-cases combo get dispensed - it back to business - there is nothing that even remotely indicates Uhuru prefers Ruto over Raila. Ruto-Raila alliance of course faces the lineup conundrum as neither can step down for the other. Also Raila seems to think joining Ruto will further dilute his reformer image. But never say never in politics.

Raila want referendum so prepare for defeat of BBI in senate forcing a referendum using WIn WIn.Ruto will work with Raila on that .Uhuru role in BBI will then to provide Money or not when court cases are done.Iebc are injuncted until cases heard n determined

I doubt Raila wants to share BBI glory with Ruto... who remains his biggest rival. What you don't get - Uhuru and One Kenya are more likely to partner with the weaker of Ruto and Raila... rather obvious. Hii story yako ati "trust" is faulty. That's hardly a factor in politic. Being "unsellable" in Gema makes Raila a better partner than Ruto in Uhuru's eyes. Plus age, etc. Ruto is abhorrent skunk on so many levels.

[RV Pundit]

How did you get Phd or your head got permentantly damaged in the process.
I mean people when work together - each is working for their own interest.
If Raila passes - BBI in parliament - Uhuru will be done with him - Uhuru will ask AG to remove sections that touches the referendum - and sent it to IEBC - and the rest will be deemed ammended. He will implement BBI - by copting cerelac babies to gov as PM/DPMs - meanwhile Raila will be waiting to unveil BBI Lineup in 2022 - while Uhuru is ready to unveil today.

So Raila need Ruto to temporarly kill BBI in parliament - so referendum becomes a MUST - please read KANSTITUTION - although I don't see how after referendum high - he will stop Uhuru from using Imperial BBI powers in 2022 to push Giddy Man.

That is how BBI is playing out in the near term.  Uhuru definitely not keen for referendum where his weak gema base will be exposed. Raila is almost obsessed with referendum where he becomes father of constitution again and again.

Ruto is obsessed with 2022 PORK - he knows everything else will be easy from there.

Now as for GEMA  - the battle is btw a retiring unpopular hated Uhuru - and Ruto.  Raila is impossible sell - in Mt kenya - that one has been abandoned - you just didn't get the memo - even lone Kamanda has given up.

Now for Uhuru - it's Cereleac coalition gameplan - and the thorny issue of who takes care of GEMA interests; Shida tupu.

In meantime I'd advise Ruto to avoid Raila like a skunk - because GEMA hates the man - to the bone - and Uhuru is in trouble for that reason.

Anyway wacha Korona kwanza itufanya next 3 months.

Kortini iko na kesi nane - Sijui BBI itatoboa yote?

You and Raila need plan B. Uhuru has hitched into regional tribal tapestry -  tribal divide and rule. Ruto is struggling to steady the hustler boat after taking water.

Raila is confused - can't believe he been left in middle of river jordan again - neither in Egypt - nor Canaan.

I doubt Raila wants to share BBI glory with Ruto... who remains his biggest rival. What you don't get - Uhuru and One Kenya are more likely to partner with the weaker of Ruto and Raila... rather obvious. Hii story yako ati "trust" is faulty. That's hardly a factor in politic. Whereas Raila being "unsellable" in Gema makes him a better partner than Ruto in Uhuru's eyes.

[RV Pundit]

Juja iko nairobi metro; not ideal kikuyu or gema const; but still good test; UDA out of respect for wife; won't participate; just like Huruma ward; Bonchari - Gusii - maybe the Slim Shaddy Matiangi will finally PLEASE STAND UP PLEASE STAND UP! I don't see lazy boy doing it; ODM could take it;

But it also revelation time for ODM ; let see if Ongwaes- Ongeris will back Jubilee or ODM; Shida tupu; they are hidding under baba - but singing Mataingi;

UDA ambition in Gusii is to play 30% - not to win.

Hell's Gate margin shows Kikuyu split 50-50 with Luo flower-pickers giving Jubilee the edge. Anyway Juja tells us the true status of UDA in Gema: if Ruto backing was solid he would be dying to scorn Uhuru and Murathes. Now he is hiding behind Moses Kuria's PEP  should shit hit the fan. Bonchari don't be so sure UDA might face worse embarassment than ODM.  UDA so far lacks national traction and momentum after string of losses with no win in horizon. One Kenya is leading the pack.

[audacityofhope]

Gema are king maker.Uhuru is using gov largese n deep states.uhuru has lost gema including kikuyu core..he has only won hell gates n ruiru thanks to industrial odm workers..otherwise huruma Rv ward again too many Luos in langas and no need to reopen kiambaa in same ward so uda stood down otherwise uda and kuria has beat jubilee.  Watch gema.Raila is skunk cannot be sold in gema and has cost uhuru heavily.Uhuru want to dump him and Ruto should not pick him.Wacha akule ujeuri.Uhuru believe dumping Raila gives him an earing...that why in my Kenya bbi has been divorced from him.The battle is on gema..largest tribal solid reliable block of nearly 30%.Uhuru  want to regain it then barter it to non Raila..likely gideon or fellow kikuyu...double trouble. RAILA MAMBO YAKE KWISHA.Kisii sioni jubilee wacha...odm has zero mp and it's not there zone.Odm governor are with Matiangi. Matiangi ni jubilee. SO RAILA WILL BE TAMED IN LUO NYANZA.

Pundit you been to school done statistics and estimates and you still believe that in a Kenya of 43 or 44 communities, which single tribe has 30% population? Have you even ever been in Central? Not just Kiambu but Nyeri and Muranga and seen how sparsely populated those places are as in they are no different - population-wise - as other parts of Kenya that are agri-based? There are large tracks of land under tea and coffee meaning land where people would be living if they were that many, is under crop instead. Census has been politically abused. Kikuyu have remained 22% at best since Independence, if not gone down. During Moi time, he let them drink local brew silly as a tool to fight their opposition to him. And because they felt persecuted then, many left for abroad - hence no contest that Kikuyu tribe the largest kenyan tribe outside Kenya.

Turning to RV and Kalenjin, they are not that many Kalenjins. Moi and Jubilee upped their numbers for election purposes. On their own UDA-a Kalenjin party has no numbers - Kalenjin not even a tribe - coined by Moi pre-independence. I asked you this question you skirted around it.

As usual misinformation is your hallmark but Nipateans on this forum have the likes of @AudacityOfHope to fix and correct that:

Acccording to the official 2019 population census figures this is the list of most populous counties in Kenya:

1. Nairobi (4.3 million)
2. Kiambu (2.4 million),
3. Nakuru (2.1million),
4. Kakamega (1.8 million) and 
5. Bungoma (1.6 million).

BTW why is there no Kalenjin county on this list? Mmezoea kuiba kura since days of Moi; 2022 mtajua hanna numbers kabisa!!

Most populated counties in Kenya | Nation

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-11-04-census-list-of-most-populous-counties-in-kenya/

Lastly Pundit, get well soon. Many a classmate of mine have been felled by Covid-19 (some in very short periods) in recent days so we know it can be serious, serious enough for me to have taken my jab.

[Nefertiti]

Lol what a troll. What is Ruto, Raila, Uhuru position on 1)BBI in parliament? 2)BBI in referendum?

My take:
Ruto wants BBI to pass in parliament but fail in referendum.
Raila wants BBI to fail in parliament but pass in referendum.
Uhuru wants BBI to fail in parliament but pass in referendum. This is where we differ.

Why? There are 2 main items in BBI: hybrid needs referendum (roles of parliament duhh). 1M1V1S does not need referendum. If 1M1V1S passes in parliament, Uhuru cannot use referendum to kick Ruto out of Gema. For Ruto it's the opposite.

1M1V1S is Uhuru thing to get back Gema. Hybrid is Raila thing to string coalition after playing all the flowergirls. Ruto wants none of these. So you see Raila-Uhuru remain aligned against Ruto despite your wishful thinking. The mistrust has been caused by the One Kenya shenanigans. I see nothing big to break Handshake right now. Of course for you Pundit Uhuru has no real beef with Ruto therefore wants to betray Raila by pocketing 1M1V1S then tanking rest of BBI. To I Robina Uhuru wants hybrid to uproot Ruto from Gema. Even if Uhuru was to shortchange Raila for One Kenya - he would still need hybrid to cobble Sacred coalition so he needs referendum to pass. Uhuru therefore cannot pocket the goodies in parliament and make No possible to win.

Kwesson: have you heard anyone in ODM asking Raila to join Ruto? I mean besides the gossip. But Ruto has been on air claiming to have common ground with Raila - some mumbo jumbo about national parties.

Please be coherent in your rebuttal. I hope you have shaken covid... it affects the brain bad.

How did you get Phd or your head got permentantly damaged in the process.
I mean people when work together - each is working for their own interest.
If Raila passes - BBI in parliament - Uhuru will be done with him - Uhuru will ask AG to remove sections that touches the referendum - and sent it to IEBC - and the rest will be deemed ammended. He will implement BBI - by copting cerelac babies to gov as PM/DPMs - meanwhile Raila will be waiting to unveil BBI Lineup in 2022 - while Uhuru is ready to unveil today.

So Raila need Ruto to temporarly kill BBI in parliament - so referendum becomes a MUST - please read KANSTITUTION - although I don't see how after referendum high - he will stop Uhuru from using Imperial BBI powers in 2022 to push Giddy Man.

That is how BBI is playing out in the near term.  Uhuru definitely not keen for referendum where his weak gema base will be exposed. Raila is almost obsessed with referendum where he becomes father of constitution again and again.

Ruto is obsessed with 2022 PORK - he knows everything else will be easy from there.

Now as for GEMA  - the battle is btw a retiring unpopular hated Uhuru - and Ruto.  Raila is impossible sell - in Mt kenya - that one has been abandoned - you just didn't get the memo - even lone Kamanda has given up.

Now for Uhuru - it's Cereleac coalition gameplan - and the thorny issue of who takes care of GEMA interests; Shida tupu.

In meantime I'd advise Ruto to avoid Raila like a skunk - because GEMA hates the man - to the bone - and Uhuru is in trouble for that reason.

Anyway wacha Korona kwanza itufanya next 3 months.

Kortini iko na kesi nane - Sijui BBI itatoboa yote?

You and Raila need plan B. Uhuru has hitched into regional tribal tapestry -  tribal divide and rule. Ruto is struggling to steady the hustler boat after taking water.

Raila is confused - can't believe he been left in middle of river jordan again - neither in Egypt - nor Canaan.