if it goes tribal how will oparanya or joho survive...use your brain.The same with mutua who died in machakos.Kaloi keep 3 counties with Ruto trying to get craps..Of course uhuru is promising them each pork...
It
is going tribal. There will be ODM, ANC, Wiper, coast party, GEMA. etc - under BBI tent. This is deliberate strategy not chaos as you seem to think - before without going full tribal Ruto was eating their lunch with hustler message. Tribe will encroach ODM as well obviously - but so long as Raila has BBI in his firm grasp there is no better offer for Sacred crew. They cannot win PORK without either Raila or Ruto - but Raila has solid power-sharing MOU unlike Ruto.
Oparanya or Kingi have no option but to want a name for themselves - to get MP then at least CS. Joho insist on ODM because he is deputy leader - guarantee himself CS under Raila. Ruto trouble starts with being cornered into No-watemelon - which is tough bind to unstuck himself more than you realize.
No Pundit, there is no magical "realignment" in play except rehashed tribalism to kill any classism. As you can see Barasas are fleeing hustler shadow to tribal cocoon under kingpin - most of the latter whom have no time for Ruto.