Handshake turned to fist

[RV Pundit]

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Next fistfight as Raila discovers gema elite want to misuse him .Raila welcome to payback 2007 support but of course the gameplan is to get kituyis,johos,mutuals
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/politics/article/2001405473/oburu-says-raila-could-work-with-ruto-in-2022

[Nowayhaha]

These people are trying to neutralize Ruto, as was the case with Mudavadi , Kalonzo and Wentagula attacking Raila.

Ruto should distance himself from this. More is to come. He needs Mt Kenya to become president and they are trying to make him lose that.

[RV Pundit]

You mean ODM folks; yes Ruto has to be careful on this ODM overtures; But clearly handshake end days are nigh!

Post-BBI Raila will be dumped and lineup of MaDVD,Kalonzo, Gideon, Matiangi and yet to be decided GEMA leader will emerge in the "Sacred Alliance". That is so obvious except for Robina.

Raila intention is to cobble a new coalition with likes of Kituyis, Mutuas, Johos, Oparanya in the ODM alliance

Ruto will have his coalition with Kiunjuris and others in the Hustler Nation.

Ruto has to be careful with Raila cry for help - he embraces Raila - and he loses GEMA. But for 2nd round it's good to have a deal with Raila.

Because if it goes for 3 horse race - it will be hard to nick 50% in first round.

These people are trying to neutralize Ruto, as was the case with Mudavadi , Kalonzo and Wentagula attacking Raila.

Ruto should distance himself from this. More is to come. He needs Mt Kenya to become president and they are trying to make him lose that.

[RV Pundit]

Look like Uhuru has managed to fool Raila and buy himself more time; Uhuru just need to pass his final budget; and BBI; and then Raila can go to hell.

As always the naive folks cannot see

[KenyanPlato]

This Dr Kibicho is no joke. He is dawa to these politicians.  He is only one smart enough to know that after august 2022 it will be lights out for kikuyus. Anyway raila cows are crying like teething babies. They were having melt down on social media. Raila is a reckless conman. He been shafted so many times by kikuyus because of impulsive behaviour. It seems he wants his supporters to start another anarchy season. If uhuru shafts raila he has no one to blame but himself

[Nowayhaha]

Uhuru meticulously  calculated and planned this BBI while Raila untactfully played all along in the hope of getting a contest . The way Uhuru has played him is he pushed him to the wall and if Raila opts out or decides to oppose it he will really dent his image in Luo Nyanza .
Raila thought by pushing for BBI II he would push for regional governments , an executive PM and be able to have a say in the constitution of IEBC . Just like the Naivasha talks , he got an egg in the face . So bad it was that his advisors asked him go ahead with referendum as time was running out .
Now the contest he has been yearning for  is about to be watered down by more inclusion and the state machinery he was planning to use will be controlled by from Harambee house .
 David Ndii had warned him of these when he never structured the talks . He has lost in all fronts . He is now shadow fighting Uhuru through Kibicho and this goes to Justify Mt Kenyas electorate and elite fears of him . Big difference with Ruto who has plan A , B , C, D and also Ruto has always thought out his plans which dont confuse his electorate

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-07-why-musalia-gideon-alliance-is-at-the-heart-of-handshake-collapse/

In what is seen as part of the elaborate scheme to have Raila's domineering role in the BBI neutralised, the state operatives secretly moved the BBI secretariat operations to the Office of the President.

The BBI secretariat, the office that has been coordinating the BBI process, was co-chaired by Jubilee's Dennis Waweru and ODM's Junet Mohamed but the latest move has handed Interior PS Karanja Kibicho sweeping roles to run the show.

This, Raila's allies believe, would deny the former prime minister political mileage and whittle down significantly his influence in the whole BBI process despite having played a key role in its approval by county assemblies.

Political analysts have observed that the BBI proposals to amend the Constitution are the ODM boss' moment to reinvent himself after the 2017 loss to Uhuru and catapult himself to the Presidency in 2022.

Raila's allies have protested against the move and warned that they might be forced to abandon BBI if the secretariat will be managed by Kibicho.

“If he must continue meddling in the work of the secretariat; if he must continue dictating how we do the work; if he is that indispensable, we will be left with no choice but to abandon BBI. Mr Kibicho is causing political constipation and we are not afraid of telling him that,” Junet told the Sunday Nation.

In what could further throw the March 2018 handshake into jeopardy, there are reports that the President's allies could be pushing to cut Raila down to size by denying him the much-needed referendum momentum.

There are reports that some state operatives could move to court to have some of the issues in the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2020 and which do not need a referendum isolated after Parliament approves the Bill.

The President and the former prime minister had claimed that the Bill also known as the BBI Bill must be approved or rejected by Kenyans at the referendum as a package.

Look like Uhuru has managed to fool Raila and buy himself more time; Uhuru just need to pass his final budget; and BBI; and then Raila can go to hell.

As always the naive folks cannot see

[Nefertiti]

I see Tangatanga having wet dreams.. Kang'ata has another letter this time about death of Handshake. But these are just usual small punches as Handshake hyenas finish Ruto goat. Same as the flowergirl thing of Kalonzo-Mdvd-Gideon. As I already opined, Raila is no fool and referendum is 2022 combo not before. Such that it can only pass along with Raila swearing as PORK. GEMA are the principal beneficiaries of BBI - 1M1V1S - the rest of the lineup are sharing power as PM and shebang. That why Raila can throw small feats and Uhuru call him at midnight to calm the waters.

The rest are details.

[RV Pundit]

You live in your alternate universe ; which afflict Raila and ODM; it called delusion; That Uhuru is stringing along Raila is too obvious for anyone except delusional ODMers;

Now you're saying BBI will be combined with 2022 election with Raila as the BBI candidate

Raila is down to having only Maina Kamanda - and I think even him he is now out of ODM -

I see Tangatanga having wet dreams.. Kang'ata has another letter this time about death of Handshake. But these are just usual small punches as Handshake hyenas finish Ruto goat. Same as the flowergirl thing of Kalonzo-Mdvd-Gideon. As I already opined, Raila is no fool and referendum is 2022 combo not before. Such that it can only pass along with Raila swearing as PORK. GEMA are the principal beneficiaries of BBI - 1M1V1S - the rest of the lineup are sharing power as PM and shebang. That why Raila can throw small feats and Uhuru call him at midnight to calm the waters.

The rest are details.

[RV Pundit]

Raila think he is smart but he has been outsmarted; He won't get GEMA; he is losing Gusii to Matiangi; Coast is gone with Kingi-Joho; Western is going with MaDVD/Kalonzo; and the Ukambani is with Kaloi. Everywhere else is with Ruto.

Now tell me what kind of threats can Luo LDP issue .

If the trend continues - I see him getting 10-15% of national vote in 2022 - and will come distant third.

The competition in 2022 will be btw Jubilee coalition (KANU, ODM-K and MADVD)  and UDA/TSP/ (Hustler Coalition) - with ODM a donkey - with maybe Kituyis/Oparanyas/Mutua.

Uhuru meticulously  calculated and planned this BBI while Raila untactfully played all along in the hope of getting a contest . The way Uhuru has played him is he pushed him to the wall and if Raila opts out or decides to oppose it he will really dent his image in Luo Nyanza .
Raila thought by pushing for BBI II he would push for regional governments , an executive PM and be able to have a say in the constitution of IEBC . Just like the Naivasha talks , he got an egg in the face . So bad it was that his advisors asked him go ahead with referendum as time was running out .
Now the contest he has been yearning for  is about to be watered down by more inclusion and the state machinery he was planning to use will be controlled by from Harambee house .
 David Ndii had warned him of these when he never structured the talks . He has lost in all fronts . He is now shadow fighting Uhuru through Kibicho and this goes to Justify Mt Kenyas electorate and elite fears of him . Big difference with Ruto who has plan A , B , C, D and also Ruto has always thought out his plans which dont confuse his electorate

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-07-why-musalia-gideon-alliance-is-at-the-heart-of-handshake-collapse/

In what is seen as part of the elaborate scheme to have Raila's domineering role in the BBI neutralised, the state operatives secretly moved the BBI secretariat operations to the Office of the President.

The BBI secretariat, the office that has been coordinating the BBI process, was co-chaired by Jubilee's Dennis Waweru and ODM's Junet Mohamed but the latest move has handed Interior PS Karanja Kibicho sweeping roles to run the show.

This, Raila's allies believe, would deny the former prime minister political mileage and whittle down significantly his influence in the whole BBI process despite having played a key role in its approval by county assemblies.

Political analysts have observed that the BBI proposals to amend the Constitution are the ODM boss' moment to reinvent himself after the 2017 loss to Uhuru and catapult himself to the Presidency in 2022.

Raila's allies have protested against the move and warned that they might be forced to abandon BBI if the secretariat will be managed by Kibicho.

“If he must continue meddling in the work of the secretariat; if he must continue dictating how we do the work; if he is that indispensable, we will be left with no choice but to abandon BBI. Mr Kibicho is causing political constipation and we are not afraid of telling him that,” Junet told the Sunday Nation.

In what could further throw the March 2018 handshake into jeopardy, there are reports that the President's allies could be pushing to cut Raila down to size by denying him the much-needed referendum momentum.

There are reports that some state operatives could move to court to have some of the issues in the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2020 and which do not need a referendum isolated after Parliament approves the Bill.

The President and the former prime minister had claimed that the Bill also known as the BBI Bill must be approved or rejected by Kenyans at the referendum as a package.

Look like Uhuru has managed to fool Raila and buy himself more time; Uhuru just need to pass his final budget; and BBI; and then Raila can go to hell.

As always the naive folks cannot see

[Nefertiti]

Not just now - this has been the plan all along. It why they delayed BBI 1, 2, etc - there was no hurry and they are not time barred as you been dreaming. Ati sijui court will kill BBI. Who really believes referendum can happen in June  - in 3 months. It will be "time-barred" - and Uhuru-Raila will "save" the 14B for youth and women fund and add new ballot in 2022. This is why Ruto is watermelon - the big card is under the table.

Think logically - if you are Raila - BBI is heavily tilted to GEMA advantage so Mijikenda and Nanoks are whining. It literally a trade - Raila and Kalonzos slice PORK - Uhuru get 1M1V1S. Why would Raila agree to pass BBI before getting PORK? Not only Ruto has a brain, ok?

You live in your alternate universe ; which afflict Raila and ODM; it called delusion; That Uhuru is stringing along Raila is too obvious for anyone except delusional ODMers;

Now you're saying BBI will be combined with 2022 election with Raila as the BBI candidate

Raila is down to having only Maina Kamanda - and I think even him he is now out of ODM -

[Nefertiti]

Dream on. MCAs and the byelections just gave you kionjo of tribe vs class.

Raila think he is smart but he has been outsmarted; He won't get GEMA; he is losing Gusii to Matiangi; Coast is gone with Kingi-Joho; Western is going with MaDVD/Kalonzo; and the Ukambani is with Kaloi. Everywhere else is with Ruto.

Now tell me what kind of threats can Luo LDP issue .

If the trend continues - I see him getting 10-15% of national vote in 2022 - and will come distant third.

The competition in 2022 will be btw Jubilee coalition (KANU, ODM-K and MADVD)  and UDA/TSP/ (Hustler Coalition) - with ODM a donkey - with maybe Kituyis/Oparanyas/Mutua.

[RV Pundit]

Hustler nation helped Ruto scores votes all over the country -obviously he has his tribal coalition - and that is what you need to understand.

Dream on. MCAs and the byelections just gave you kionjo of tribe vs class.

[RV Pundit]

BBI now at court - and nobody knows how it will end. It could be declared NULL and VOID. Gov can also be told to start again. So for now - I'd advise you to think about Plan B. As for Raila - he is not thinking that complicated - he really want to have BBI now - and be in charge - so he can use it to endear himself to Mt Kenya. It aint happening. Uhuru has made GIDEO MOI the head of BBI - he is in running the SHOW.

If BBI come in 2022 - election - we will only have two seats to fight for - and promises as always - there has been promises for PM position since 2002

Kibaki promised Raila to be the PM.
Ruto was promised to be PM in 2007 by ODM;
MaDVD was promised to be PM by Raila in 2012.
MADVD again was promised to be PM by Raila in 2017.

I am not sure who is the next fool to be promised - enough to go and run for parliament

Not just now - this has been the plan all along. It why they delayed BBI 1, 2, etc - there was no hurry and they are not time barred as you been dreaming. Ati sijui court will kill BBI. Who really believes referendum can happen in June  - in 3 months. It will be "time-barred" - and Uhuru-Raila will "save" the 14B for youth and women fund and add new ballot in 2022. This is why Ruto is watermelon - the big card is under the table.

Think logically - if you are Raila - BBI is heavily tilted to GEMA advantage so Mijikenda and Nanoks are whining. It literally a trade - Raila and Kalonzos slice PORK - Uhuru get 1M1V1S. Why would Raila agree to pass BBI before getting PORK? Not only Ruto has a brain, ok?

You live in your alternate universe ; which afflict Raila and ODM; it called delusion; That Uhuru is stringing along Raila is too obvious for anyone except delusional ODMers;

Now you're saying BBI will be combined with 2022 election with Raila as the BBI candidate

Raila is down to having only Maina Kamanda - and I think even him he is now out of ODM -

[Nefertiti]

UDA underperformed big - Kang'ata would not be catching a break if they had pulled another Msambweni. Mdvd, Kalonzo, Weta are playing the tribal card to beat hustler. Very successfully. A few weeks ago you were telling us how hustler has infiltrated even Ukambani - now they have scattered already after Kalonzo went full tribal. The native hustler Sonko is in jail - and sick - and Kibwana is with Raila. Not sure where Miguna Muthama is. See?

So who is in Ruto's tribal coalition? Mvurya, Nanok and Duale, MK, Khalwale - 3rd or 4th tier crew. The top-tier remains firmly pro-BBI - obviously Bukusu don't believe Weta will be PORK but know BBI is great power-sharing deal. Kingi and all those governors have tasted power - they WANT BBI to be CS in hybrid and obviously they must position as kingpins. So deserting BBI owner Raila   - for what? - Ruto has nothing to offer them.

Hustler nation helped Ruto scores votes all over the country -obviously he has his tribal coalition - and that is what you need to understand.

Dream on. MCAs and the byelections just gave you kionjo of tribe vs class.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit what does Ruto really have to offer anyone? I mean besides weekly stipend. Raila offers MP/CS to all big fish. I read Ruto is offering Owen Baya and Jumwas UDA sec gen - so as not to join Kadu Asili. But Kamba already have UDA chairman and still deserting him.

[RV Pundit]

Yes by-election showed Hustler Naton narrative will not be enough in light of tribal attack - started by Uhuru himself; Therefore Ruto has to factor that in his plan - and possibility of his opponents splintering the vote so nobody gets 50%.

Anyway once we know how the GEMA vote will split - we will know if Ruto will nick it in first round or not. So far it looks like Ruto has the edge - 70-80% - of GEMA - and has improved in rest of the country - except possibly Gusii - where Matiangi may complicated.

For Ruto - he has to try to return the Jubilee 55% votes -of which roughly 25-30%  came from GEMA - therefore Ruto starts with good bases of about 25-30% without any GEMA votes -and he needs to work on getting 30-35% before any GEMA vote is counted - by increasing his tally in areas like Maasai, Turkana, Luhya, Ukambani and Coast.  GEMA will then deliver victory - even if they were to do 50-50%.


As for BBI - How many position is BBI creating enough for all of them . BBI owner - was yesterday threatening to quit

UDA underperformed big - Kang'ata would not be catching a break if they had pulled another Msambweni. Mdvd, Kalonzo, Weta are playing the tribal card to beat hustler. Very successfully. A few weeks ago you were telling us how hustler has infiltrated even Ukambani - now they have scattered already after Kalonzo went full tribal. The native hustler Sonko is in jail - and sick - and Kibwana is with Raila. Not sure where Miguna Muthama is. See?

So who is in Ruto's tribal coalition? Mvurya, Nanok and Duale, MK, Khalwale - 3rd or 4th tier crew. The top-tier remains firmly pro-BBI - obviously Bukusu don't believe Weta will be PORK but know BBI is great power-sharing deal. Kingi and all those governors have tasted power - they WANT BBI to be CS in hybrid and obviously they must position as kingpins. So deserting BBI owner Raila   - for what? - Ruto has nothing to offer them.

[RV Pundit]

You don't understand politics. YOU DO NOT OFFER WHAT YOU DON"T HAVE. Unless you're saying BBI has hardcoded that President will be Raila . If BBI passes - Ruto will offer BBI positions to those guys around Raila.

What DOES RUTO OFFER - his POPULARITY - and that is what politicians want to ride.

People know Ruto is the MAN to BEAT in 2022 because he has RV nearly totally - that huge 25% - and is very popular in GEMA - I hope you've seen the pictures of Ruto in Meru this week - and has popularity and support across the nation.

Ruto is the new Raila. Raila was STRONG because he was nationally popular.

You sometimes make me doubt you sanity. It's probably bipolar.

What Ruto is offering if opinion polls are done properly is guy at 40% - while Raila is retreating to 15% - and therefore Ruto just need one guy or two - to nick it.

Raila will need even his guys like Kingi, Joho, name all of them to move from 15% to 50%. He is therefore just about as good as dead.

Pundit what does Ruto really have to offer anyone? I mean besides weekly stipend. Raila offers MP/CS to all big fish. I read Ruto is offering Owen Baya and Jumwas UDA sec gen - so as not to join Kadu Asili. But Kamba already have UDA chairman and still deserting him.

[Nefertiti]

Raila is still popular but that never made him PORK. Cause machinery. Going against machinery is tried-&-tested path to failure.

BBI is Raila Manifesto - when you get that your MOAS will suddenly resurrect. While Ruto camp in Mt Kenya - Raila will just cut them BBI-PM cheque - and they vote him. Ditto for Kamba and shebang.

How can Ruto offer anything but DPORK? Please elaborate. Your confusion starts with believing what you read on news - about June referendum bla bla.

Unlike your loong lineup of 5 camps - 2022 is Yes-Raila vs Ruto-No. If you tell us how Ruto will wiggle out of this trojan we are all ears. Watermelon won't cut it as you saw in county landslide.

You don't understand politics. YOU DO NOT OFFER WHAT YOU DON"T HAVE. Unless you're saying BBI has hardcoded that President will be Raila . If BBI passes - Ruto will offer BBI positions to those guys around Raila.

What DOES RUTO OFFER - his POPULARITY - and that is what politicians want to ride.

People know Ruto is the MAN to BEAT in 2022 because he has RV nearly totally - that huge 25% - and is very popular in GEMA - I hope you've seen the pictures of Ruto in Meru this week - and has popularity and support across the nation.

Ruto is the new Raila. Raila was STRONG because he was nationally popular.

You sometimes make me doubt you sanity. It's probably bipolar.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit I can bet you my bitcoins there will be no referendum in June.

[RV Pundit]

What stops Ruto from offering BBI positions?  Just explain to us why BBI is exclusively meant for Raila; it Kenya constitution;

In 2013 - UhuRuto run - but had flower girls and boys -  Balala and Ngilu - who became ministers.

The same will happen in 2022. Ruto will pick a Kikuyu DPORK and share power 50:50; the rest will be offered flower girl position.

As for Raila - my friend - he has gigantic PROBLEMS. First MADVD/KALONZO have refused to be deputize him anymore. It's been 10yrs now.  So forget about them.

They will work in another BBI coalition - of their own.

Raila will have is own BBI coalition.

Ruto will have is own 50:50 deal with GEMA - and the rest will be invited as flower girls; because Ruto will not require BIG BOYS; he will need small guys like Kingis, Wetas.

Hizi PM/DPM ; those are not the real position; PORK remain PORK; and therefore only deal is for power sharing agreement.

Raila is still popular but that never made him PORK. Cause machinery. Going against machinery is tried-&-tested path to failure.

BBI is Raila Manifesto - when you get that your MOAS will suddenly resurrect. While Ruto camp in Mt Kenya - Raila will just cut them BBI-PM cheque - and they vote him. Ditto for Kamba and shebang.

How can Ruto offer anything but DPORK? Please elaborate. Your confusion starts with believing what you read on news - about June referendum bla bla.

Unlike your loong lineup of 5 camps - 2022 is Yes-Raila vs Ruto-No. If you tell us how Ruto will wiggle out of this trojan we are all ears. Watermelon won't cut it as you saw in county landslide.

You don't understand politics. YOU DO NOT OFFER WHAT YOU DON"T HAVE. Unless you're saying BBI has hardcoded that President will be Raila . If BBI passes - Ruto will offer BBI positions to those guys around Raila.

What DOES RUTO OFFER - his POPULARITY - and that is what politicians want to ride.

People know Ruto is the MAN to BEAT in 2022 because he has RV nearly totally - that huge 25% - and is very popular in GEMA - I hope you've seen the pictures of Ruto in Meru this week - and has popularity and support across the nation.

Ruto is the new Raila. Raila was STRONG because he was nationally popular.

You sometimes make me doubt you sanity. It's probably bipolar.