Remove Ruto from the equation. Ruto was as tough as nail during negotiation. Raila messed up.
5yrs later in 2013- Ruto alone would get 50-50 deal with GEMA - this made many of you and his opponents very jealous.
Under Moi - GEMA had been cut to size - by a tugen of not even 100,000 people.
Raila is the problem - he is not strategic nor tactical - otherwise he would long have been PORK.
GEMA versus Kalenjin is good match - both are very tactical and strategic - and treacherous. The Arab slave traders description of Nandi and Kikuyu is so similar - both would make deals they had no intention of honoring - get the goods and kill the arabs or their lackeys.
In politics you have to be that crafty - a Machiavellian.
The same with maDVD/Kalonzo - they don't know how to deal with GEMA - except salivate over the millions of GEMA votes.
The only way to beat GEMA is not through weakness like Railas' fawning handshake/BBI bend overs - or Kalonzo/MaDVD well documented slavery almost to GEMA.
GEMA can only negotiate if you're strong and an equal - or stronger. Ruto is building his strength outside GEMA - and GEMA now will negotiate because either way Ruto is so strong. They are not going to negotiate with weak Raila or even more idiotic maDVD or Kalonzo - except to ask them to back a GEMA guy.
You don't rush to negotiating table when you have no stakes.
This is hardly news: during the 2007-8 PEV ODM ran circles around PNU knuckleheads lead by Uhuru, Kimunya and Kiraitu. Even Karua was just a wildly purring cat. Gema are poor in the streets. However in the boardroom it's a different matter - they are schemers per excellence. The PNU crew played ODMers lead by Mdvd and Ruto like kids... at Serena. It's how you ended up with Raila crying at Sagana as Kibaki handed him junior ministries.
Today, Uhuru is pitting Ruto vs Raila so masterfully it's amazing. The more I think about BBI the more I'm convinced Uhuru and Gema are actually smarter strategists than Ruto, Raila and non-Gema.