Chance For Muthama To Make A Comeback

[Nowayhaha]

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We need elections in the following counties
Machakos  & Nairobi

[Nefertiti]

Without Kalonzo or Mutua - Muthama is just another moneybag like Osa Vinya guy Harun Mwau - the PK "Boss" with his mzungu mannerisms. Mwau would lay tarmack in entire Wote, Makueni, Mbooni or wherever - and still get only a handful of votes. Muthama troubles start with his Kamba nationalist anti-Gema bile - it shows up often when he lets loose his forked tongue. Grievance politics and bitterness from such rich guy is bizarre and repulsive. How should jobless youth feel if he is so successful and angry. He is actually more comfy in ODM than Wiper - Kamba tend not to be so aggressive and venomous.

[RV Pundit]

Muthama is legit. He is seen the few or only kamba who can stand up to Kikuyu madharau. Gema really despise Kambas. I don't know where it all emanates -my wife says it witchcraft - but I have seen it in mavoko - for a kikuyu - to be a kanba is almost like to be cursed.

Otherwise the A in GEMA would have been Akamba. Kalonzo has tried to desperately befriend GEMA lakini wapi. GEMA would rather do a deal with anybody than a Mkamba - they claim they are not loyal and I don't know what. Seem like historical beef dating back in Thuraku or Shungwaya.

Without Kalonzo or Mutua - Muthama is just another moneybag like Osa Vinya guy Harun Mwau - the PK "Boss" with his mzungu mannerisms. Mwau would lay tarmack in entire Wote, Makueni, Mbooni or wherever - and still get only a handful of votes. Muthama troubles start with his Kamba nationalist anti-Gema bile - it shows up once in a while. Grievance politics and bitterness from such rich guy is bizarre and repulsive. How should jobless youth feel if he is so successful and angry. He is actually more comfy in ODM than Wiper - Kamba tend not to be so aggressive and venomous.

[Nefertiti]

Well Gema "dharao" everyone - Luo, Kalenjin, Kamba, name it - basically a superiority complex backed up by hot air. For example they believe they are "entrepreneurs" while in truth they are mostly thieves and leeches. But that just tribal stuff and culture not politics proper or merit.

Look: Alfred Ng'ang'a Mutua is well known Kikuyu halfcast - with dazzling Kikuyu wife - but still beat Wiper and Muthamas. 2017 Muthama guy for governor was former DG Ben Kiala - he was distant 3rd after Mutua and Wavinya despite Muthama backing with resources and millions.

Before Wiper fallout - 2013-17 Muthama led anti-Mutua Chap Chap witch-hunt. Despite having 100% Wiper MCAs and MPs - Mutua ran circles around the fool.

Maybe I don't know what "legit" means. There will be no Gema candidate - likely Wiper vs Chap Chap vs Muthama-Kivutha hustler. Obviously like in Msambweni Ruto will be MiA leaving Muthama-Kivutha to square with Wiper and Chap Chap.

[RV Pundit]

Harun Mwau is not legit. Mutua delivered. Kalonzo is useless...just that he is best kambas got. Muthama is legit in kamba nationalism sphere. He has delivered Kalonzo and Ukambani to Raila twice.

You're just unhappy because he is working with Ruto - but Muthama is a force - he has the money and he has message.

Mutua would NEVER had been anything HAD MUTHAMA gone to school. Shida to ni DEGREE hana...coz he is primary school dropout. I think even high school diploma hana. He is a real hustler...

Well Gema "dharao" everyone - Luo, Kalenjin, Kamba, name it - basically a superiority complex backed up by hot air. For example they believe they are "entrepreneurs" while in truth they are mostly thieves and leeches. But that just tribal stuff and culture not politics proper or merit.

Look: Alfred Ng'ang'a Mutua is well known Kikuyu halfcast - with dazzling Kikuyu wife - but still beat Wiper and Muthamas. 2017 Muthama guy for governor was former DG Ben Kiala - he was distant 3rd after Mutua and Wavinya despite Muthama backing with resources and millions.

Before Wiper fallout - 2013-17 Muthama led anti-Mutua Chap Chap witch-hunt. Despite having 100% Wiper MCAs and MPs - Mutua ran circles around the fool.

Maybe I don't know what "legit" means. There will be no Gema candidate - likely Wiper vs Chap Chap vs Muthama-Kivutha hustler. Obviously like in Msambweni Ruto will be MiA leaving Muthama-Kivutha to square with Wiper and Chap Chap.

[Nefertiti]

no I am not "unhappy" with Muthama - anymore than I am happy with Mutua or Kalonzo. I am a dispassionate pundit.

Of course it is nonsense to say Muthama delivered Kalonzo/Kamba to Raila - ha! - what stop him from installing Ben Kiala in Machakos?  He rode Wiper wings to senator - otherwise now he has been replaced with Muthoka. It almost like saying Joho is the ODM power not Raila. Kalonzo is the party and has the people. Swept entire 8% on his own and twice for Raila.

Ohh if only he went to school... lots of ifs and buts and wishes. He can start a party or run on Kivutha Muungano now - or independent hustler - and Kalonzo or Mutua will beat him. Especially if those two partner under Handshake.. Muthama and his hustler voodoo stand no chance. But that is a fat chance.

Muthama Kamba nationalism is DOA - cause Kamba are polite and docile in nature. He basically claim Kibaki-Uhuru betrayed Kalonzo "Judas" Wiper-PNU deal. Of course he was played by Kibaki, Michuki and Karua. Same as Mdvd, Saitoti, etc. Big deal. Then he was played by Raila twice - see it got nothing to do with Kikuyu but hisself. With 8% how does the junior partner bring 40% - he need some national appeal to dream of PORK. Only katikati stroke of luck can make Kalonzo or Mdvd PORK.

Kamba know this and are not even fooled by Mutua delusions of grandeur. For mere VP or PM they will vote Kalonzo in droves. They are not as proud and entitled as Luo or Kikuyu and Kalenjin. All the Kikuyu in Machaa town - not a whiff of clashes. Muthama bile is ineffective and unjustified.

[RV Pundit]

Muthama would be finishing his 2nd term as governor for Machakos - only that he has no papers. The rest of your nonsense is laughable. He went for senate - and couldn't just live with Mutua as Machakos governor. If there is anything he hate - I guess it mising Machakos governorship - and then he has GIGANTIC BEEF WITH KENYATTAS - that started wayback in Taita Taveta gemstone mines as Kenyattas run roughshold and stole from everyone - their minerals. Muthama with help of Americans and foreginers fought the Kenyattas - and made huge fortune- and if there is anybody who doesn't fear kenyattas - it's Muthama. After deciminating elephants of Tsavo to export to China - Mama Ngina - found Muthamas and some foreigners - minning precious metals in low scale - and started grabbing them - first by declaring those foreigners person-non-grata - but unschooled muthama - became their link-man - they coudln't deport Muthama - and then Muthamas employed scorthed earth gangs in the mines - kenyattas eventually backed off and kept to their farms.

no I am not "unhappy" with Muthama - anymore than I am happy with Mutua or Kalonzo. I am a dispassionate pundit.

Of course it is nonsense to say Muthama delivered Kalonzo/Kamba to Raila - ha! - what stop him from installing Ben Kiala in Machakos?  He rode Wiper wings to senator - otherwise now he has been replaced with Muthoka. It almost like saying Joho is the ODM power not Raila. Kalonzo is the party and has the people. Swept entire 8% on his own and twice for Raila.

Ohh if only he went to school... lots of ifs and buts and wishes. He can start a party or run on Kivutha Muungano now - or independent hustler - and Kalonzo or Mutua will beat him. Especially if those two partner under Handshake.. Muthama and his hustler voodoo stand no chance. But that is a fat chance.

Muthama Kamba nationalism is DOA - cause Kamba are polite and docile in nature. He basically claim Kibaki-Uhuru betrayed Kalonzo "Judas" Wiper-PNU deal. Of course he was played by Kibaki, Michuki and Karua. Same as Mdvd, Saitoti, etc. Big deal. Then he was played by Raila twice - see it got nothing to do with Kikuyu but hisself. With 8% how does the junior partner bring 40% - he need some national appeal to dream of PORK. Only katikati stroke of luck can make Kalonzo or Mdvd PORK.

Kamba know this and are not even fooled by Mutua delusions of grandeur. For mere VP or PM they will vote Kalonzo in droves. They are not as proud and entitled as Luo or Kikuyu and Kalenjin. All the Kikuyu in Machaa town - not a whiff of clashes. Muthama bile is ineffective and unjustified.

[Nefertiti]

All those things might be true but they do not compensate for the visionless sour persona. People want vision and hope not grievances ala Ndii or Karua. My own suspicion is Muthama won't run but will back "hustler" candidate against Wiper and Chap Chap. 3-horse. As usual Ruto will poke his nose where it doesn't belong and get walloped. The more he get walloped - the clearer it become that his hustler is voodoo.

[Nefertiti]

We need elections in the following counties
Machakos  & Nairobi

Does an impeached governor qualify for re-election?

[RV Pundit]

It will be 3 horse race like you said - and Raila is not of of those horse - Ruto has an horse everywhere - which why he is the front runner. What you call poking nose - spreading tentacles.

All the rest have to gang up against Ruto to stand a chance....everywhere...Raila play is now restricted to Luo Nyanza, lower western and coastal...elsewhere he is kaput. Ruto is key player everywhere except Luo Nyanza.

All those things might be true but they do not compensate for the visionless sour persona. People want vision and hope not grievances ala Ndii or Karua. My own suspicion is Muthama won't run but will back "hustler" candidate against Wiper and Chap Chap. 3-horse. As usual Ruto will poke his nose where it doesn't belong and get walloped. The more he get walloped - the clearer it become that his hustler is voodoo.

[Nefertiti]

We need elections in the following counties
Machakos  & Nairobi

Does an impeached governor qualify for re-election?

Pundit?

[Nefertiti]

Only a fool like you can say that. I suspect it spin cause you ain't so stupid.

Ukambani is akin to say Central for Raila - if Wamatangi drop dead - Raila would not field a candidate for the same reason Ruto should never have done it in Kibra, Ganda, Msambweni or Ukambani. Noone will remember Mariga or Owallo distant second and third - it just Ruto dog beating that come to mind. Now Msambweni - Boga win will be Raila&BBI win vs Ruto loss.

In Machakos - Raila will keep off as "respect" for Wiper as NASA or BBI partner. Tuju will "consult widely" and Jubilee will equally keep off in Handshake spirit Ruto will back Muthama-Kivutha Muungano or independent candidate. Muthama will be seen as Ruto poodle undermining Kalonzo. Noone will buy "hustler va dynasty" headed by mineral billionaire and helicopter guy. It will be squarely Kalonzo vs Ruto - BBI Yes vs No. Chap Chap will be lost somewhere in the flying cups n pans.

If Sonko get fired in senate - Nairobi and Machakos will hold by elections same day in 2021. BBI will take center stage. I suspect Badi or Sakaja will be BBI candidate in Nairobi. But yea it quite early- look like they might save Sonko if Uhuru let them. Sakaja I suspect wants Sonko to go.

Anyway let see first your 65% hustler in Msambweni. Oops hustler wave end in Tana River - in Machakos you will tell us hustler end in Nairobi. The truth of course is penniless Diani beach boys are not hustler - cause hustler start and end in URP - those are the "tentacles" people will see.

It will be 3 horse race like you said - and Raila is not of of those horse - Ruto has an horse everywhere - which why he is the front runner. What you call poking nose - spreading tentacles.

All the rest have to gang up against Ruto to stand a chance....everywhere...Raila play is now restricted to Luo Nyanza, lower western and coastal...elsewhere he is kaput. Ruto is key player everywhere except Luo Nyanza.

[RV Pundit]

You didn't just type all this nonsense. Like I told you - the time for coalition will come - and it's not now. It the last minute of 2022 - deals are cut in the last minute - based on what you bring to the table. Now it's time to spread as much tentacle as possible. Ruto obviously want to play everywhere including Luo Nyanza. If he comes 2nd in your stronghold - you should be worried - very worried.

As for you - you have already completed coalition agreement btw Raila and pretty much everyone except Ruto . Everyone has agreed that Raila is the candidate - someone else DP - and many non-existent positions. I wonder if all of them will fit in your custom built delusional vehicle.

Meanwhile Ruto is standing alone - not even with Uhuru - and doing pretty well - even when Jubilee is frustrating him. In Jubilee zones like by-election held in say Wajir or Baringo - Raila was no show.

Who won in Kibra? Ruto WON. Who is winning in Msabweni? Ruto. The reason - these are Raila strongholds and Ruto is playing attack - and Raila is defending - if ODM retain their seats - they have WON nothing. It's like a football game - eventually - Ruto will score because he is all over the field. His opponents are parking the bus on their own goal - to defend it.

Ruto strategy will be to as much as possible aim for 40% alone. Then do a coalition with one guy who brings in 10% - and it's gameshot.

Not to enter into a crowded coalition with people who bring 1-2%.

How does Ruto get 40% - it simple - get as much as possible from RV - 25% base. That leave him looking for 25% - if you factor pastoralist somalis-oromos. if Muthama-Kivutha can bring as much as 30% of Ukambani; Coast bring as much as 30%; Luhya's Western bring 30 % ;- that can sum up 10% - taking the tally 35%. If Ruto play even 40% of Nairobi - that takes him close to 40%. You see by time we get to GEMA proper of Central and Eastern - with deal with Kiunjuri group - Ruto doesn't need a whole lot; And we haven't gone for 30% of part of Nyanza.

In simple maths - if Ruto aim for 25% in his home base in RV by taking over all the 14 counties- and then aim30% of the remaining 75 - then we are talking 25%+24%  

And that is why Ruto is odd favourite - and rest have to all gang up - to stand any chance. Let them gang up but there will only be two positions to be shared - PORK and DPORK. I am not sure how 10 or 15 ambitious wannabe will fit into that.

Only a fool like you can say that. I suspect it spin cause you ain't so stupid.

Ukambani is akin to say Central for Raila - if Wamatangi drop dead - Raila would not field a candidate for the same reason Ruto should never have done it in Kibra, Ganda, Msambweni or Ukambani. Noone will remember Mariga or Owallo distant second and third - it just Ruto dog beating that come to mind. Now Msambweni - Boga win will be Raila&BBI win vs Ruto loss.

In Machakos - Raila will keep off as "respect" for Wiper as NASA or BBI partner. Tuju will "consult widely" and Jubilee will equally keep off in Handshake spirit Ruto will back Muthama-Kivutha Muungano or independent candidate. Muthama will be seen as Ruto poodle undermining Kalonzo. Noone will buy "hustler va dynasty" headed by mineral billionaire and helicopter guy. It will be squarely Kalonzo vs Ruto - BBI Yes vs No. Chap Chap will be lost somewhere in the flying cups n pans.

If Sonko get fired in senate - Nairobi and Machakos will hold by elections same day in 2021. BBI will take center stage. I suspect Badi or Sakaja will be BBI candidate in Nairobi. But yea it quite early- look like they might save Sonko if Uhuru let them. Sakaja I suspect wants Sonko to go.

Anyway let see first your 65% hustler in Msambweni. Oops hustler wave end in Tana River - in Machakos you will tell us hustler end in Nairobi. The truth of course is penniless Diani beach boys are not hustler - cause hustler start and end in URP - those are the "tentacles" people will see.

It will be 3 horse race like you said - and Raila is not of of those horse - Ruto has an horse everywhere - which why he is the front runner. What you call poking nose - spreading tentacles.

All the rest have to gang up against Ruto to stand a chance....everywhere...Raila play is now restricted to Luo Nyanza, lower western and coastal...elsewhere he is kaput. Ruto is key player everywhere except Luo Nyanza.

[gout]

Apt. GEMA despite being hodgepodge of all Kenyan tribes stinks of exclusionism.  A scratch you hear the Kiambu buggers despise Murang'a folks. Murang'a folks spite the  Nyandarua people. Crazy shit!

Well Gema "dharao" everyone - Luo, Kalenjin, Kamba, name it - basically a superiority complex backed up by hot air. For example they believe they are "entrepreneurs" while in truth they are mostly thieves and leeches. But that just tribal stuff and culture not politics proper or merit.

Look: Alfred Ng'ang'a Mutua is well known Kikuyu halfcast - with dazzling Kikuyu wife - but still beat Wiper and Muthamas. 2017 Muthama guy for governor was former DG Ben Kiala - he was distant 3rd after Mutua and Wavinya despite Muthama backing with resources and millions.

Before Wiper fallout - 2013-17 Muthama led anti-Mutua Chap Chap witch-hunt. Despite having 100% Wiper MCAs and MPs - Mutua ran circles around the fool.

Maybe I don't know what "legit" means. There will be no Gema candidate - likely Wiper vs Chap Chap vs Muthama-Kivutha hustler. Obviously like in Msambweni Ruto will be MiA leaving Muthama-Kivutha to square with Wiper and Chap Chap.

[Nefertiti]

That funny since BBI buffet is about to be served. The trick is to hold it in 2022 - and Ruto katikati is bizarre strategy. Anything but No is akin to endorsing and accepting to implement Raila manifesto. Of course you can still tell us they are playing Raila... with zero evidence. Uhuru as usual turn every state function into BBI campaign - basically Jamhuri Day and shebang is Raila campaign. Poor Ruto sulked and mumbled something about consensus and leadership sijui unity.

Raila is not stitching a raft or hammering deals - for same reason you don't need a deal with MPs or governors: all those jobs and carrots are in BBI - Mdvd, PK, Johos only need to run for MP and drum BBI to be D/PM or CS. It pure self-interest- Raila doesn't need to offer them anything.

About tentacles or coalitions - tell it to the birds Ruto badly wants but LACKS serious partners. I mean Wiper-ANC-Ford K openly distance themselves despite Raila-Sifuna madharao. It funny really - ODM gets billions party funds courtesy of NASA pool - then shamelessly cheat NASA parties - still noone want alliance with Ruto

Demonstrably it poor strategy to wait for 2022 April to form alliances. Cause optics. 2010-12 PNU-Kanu-Wiper-UDM ganged against ODM in G7 sijui KKK. They won by-election after by-election: Matuga 2010 (PNU Mwakwere vs Mwanyoha ODM); Kamukunji 2011 (PNU Hassan vs Weke ODM); Kitutu Masaba 2011 (PNU Nyambati vs Bosire ODM); Kajiado North 2012 (TNA ole Sakuda vs ole Mositet ODM).

See? ODM shrunk - Loss after loss is very bad optics. Baringo is 99% Kalenjin. Wajir Ruto bought out ODM crew with hard, cold cash. His collection of losers says it all: RUTO LACKS SERIOUS ALLIES. It not strategy but failure and isolation that cause his present lone-ranger watermelon disposition. After Kibra, Ganda now Msambweni dog-beating- he need to reassess the hubris - and maybe let Machakos and Nairobi zikae tu na wenyewe.

That voodoo you are drinking about RV 25% - 14 tribes - with all Tunais, Lenkus, Lonyas in BBI you can dream on. At least you have revised 65% hustler magic number to something more spinnable. I said try show us hustler wave in Msambweni - seem now you are winning by losing

In short my Ruto prognosis is negative: sell that stock. With URP, few Bukusu, Kamba - best case scenario is 2010 No 32%. 1:2 rout.

You didn't just type all this nonsense. Like I told you - the time for coalition will come - and it's not now. It the last minute of 2022 - deals are cut in the last minute - based on what you bring to the table. Now it's time to spread as much tentacle as possible. Ruto obviously want to play everywhere including Luo Nyanza. If he comes 2nd in your stronghold - you should be worried - very worried.

As for you - you have already completed coalition agreement btw Raila and pretty much everyone except Ruto . Everyone has agreed that Raila is the candidate - someone else DP - and many non-existent positions. I wonder if all of them will fit in your custom built delusional vehicle.

Meanwhile Ruto is standing alone - not even with Uhuru - and doing pretty well - even when Jubilee is frustrating him. In Jubilee zones like by-election held in say Wajir or Baringo - Raila was no show.

Who won in Kibra? Ruto WON. Who is winning in Msabweni? Ruto. The reason - these are Raila strongholds and Ruto is playing attack - and Raila is defending - if ODM retain their seats - they have WON nothing. It's like a football game - eventually - Ruto will score because he is all over the field. His opponents are parking the bus on their own goal - to defend it.

Ruto strategy will be to as much as possible aim for 40% alone. Then do a coalition with one guy who brings in 10% - and it's gameshot.

Not to enter into a crowded coalition with people who bring 1-2%.

How does Ruto get 40% - it simple - get as much as possible from RV - 25% base. That leave him looking for 25% - if you factor pastoralist somalis-oromos. if Muthama-Kivutha can bring as much as 30% of Ukambani; Coast bring as much as 30%; Luhya's Western bring 30 % ;- that can sum up 10% - taking the tally 35%. If Ruto play even 40% of Nairobi - that takes him close to 40%. You see by time we get to GEMA proper of Central and Eastern - with deal with Kiunjuri group - Ruto doesn't need a whole lot; And we haven't gone for 30% of part of Nyanza.

In simple maths - if Ruto aim for 25% in his home base in RV by taking over all the 14 counties- and then aim30% of the remaining 75 - then we are talking 25%+24%  

And that is why Ruto is odd favourite - and rest have to all gang up - to stand any chance. Let them gang up but there will only be two positions to be shared - PORK and DPORK. I am not sure how 10 or 15 ambitious wannabe will fit into that.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit so in Msambweni Ruto will "win" by losing to ODM? So what's the target for this win? Ukistaajabu ya Musa

[Nefertiti]

Kindly repost in English. Seriously yours is gibberish huelewi hata shorthand jameni. I can perfectly get Pundit or Njamba broken grammar but not yours. I won't even start on your point-free one-liners.

Apt. GEMA despite being hodgepodge of all Kenyan tribes stinks of exclusionism.  A scratch you hear the Kiambu buggers despise Murang'a folks. Murang'a folks spite the  Nyandarua people. Crazy shit!

Well Gema "dharao" everyone - Luo, Kalenjin, Kamba, name it - basically a superiority complex backed up by hot air. For example they believe they are "entrepreneurs" while in truth they are mostly thieves and leeches. But that just tribal stuff and culture not politics proper or merit.

Look: Alfred Ng'ang'a Mutua is well known Kikuyu halfcast - with dazzling Kikuyu wife - but still beat Wiper and Muthamas. 2017 Muthama guy for governor was former DG Ben Kiala - he was distant 3rd after Mutua and Wavinya despite Muthama backing with resources and millions.

Before Wiper fallout - 2013-17 Muthama led anti-Mutua Chap Chap witch-hunt. Despite having 100% Wiper MCAs and MPs - Mutua ran circles around the fool.

Maybe I don't know what "legit" means. There will be no Gema candidate - likely Wiper vs Chap Chap vs Muthama-Kivutha hustler. Obviously like in Msambweni Ruto will be MiA leaving Muthama-Kivutha to square with Wiper and Chap Chap.

[RV Pundit]

When did BBI crew agree on Raila candidacy. As far as I know Matiangi, Kalonzo, Gideon, MaDVD, PK, etc all think theu will be the compromise candidate. BBI anit-Ruto gang are only united in their delusion. If you're joining Ruto - you joining with certainty that Ruto will be PORK - and Kiunjuri will be DPORK.

In any case, Ruto would love nothing, than Raila candidacy, because he is such a hard sell in GEMA. The Matiangi, Kalonzo and maDVD will give Ruto serious problem in GEMA - gema can take a second look on them - but for Raila - it will cutting their nose to spit at their face.

Second;outside GEMA, I am not sure how many people Kalonzo or maDVD or Gideon will pull if they go for parliamentary seat That will be something. I guess DPORK will be only solid position - if Raila is the candidate - not sure if kalonzo or PK or Matiangi or Gideon will go for it. The rest of 10 candidates will go for MPs - and aim to become BBI's PM and DPM. NOT enough positions. I think we need BBI 5.0 - to add more positions

Now Ruto looks good in RV - 25% - Lenkus/etc - KAMATUSA+Kikuyu diaspora (once we pick Kiunjuri) is done deal - 25%. In Tranzoia - Luhyas will play ball - and Maasai is more than assured. Ruto looks good also in the pastoralist nation - Duale takes care of that. I believe Duale will be PM or Majority leader for Ruto. That should take Ruto to 30%.

Ruto is of course keen to taken huge part of Nairobi, Western, Gusii-Kuria Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani. I believe is on course to take at min 30% of those areas. That should get him past 40% of the Moi.

Now elephant in the room GEMA - Central and Meru+Eastern - let see - if Uhuru/company seriously go rogue - Ruto will aim for 50-50 split - if not - he will take most of it. And that should get him min past 50% - or 65% if he get endorsed by Uhuru.

Remember we don't know if Uhuru will endorse Raila or Ruto or Matiangi or even a new person . Most people like me think Uhuru is playing Raila but we will know as we head to 2022.

But clearly Ruto look likely to win - with or without Uhuru. That is very good.

That is why Ruto will be all over the map - working as solo candidate - against the wish-washy delusional gang united against him.

That funny since BBI buffet is about to be served. The trick is to hold it in 2022 - and Ruto katikati is bizarre strategy. Anything but No is akin to endorsing and accepting to implement Raila manifesto. Of course you can still tell us they are playing Raila... with zero evidence. Uhuru as usual turn every state function into BBI campaign - basically Jamhuri Day and shebang is Raila campaign. Poor Ruto sulked and mumbled something about consensus and leadership sijui unity.

Raila is not stitching a raft or hammering deals - for same reason you don't need a deal with MPs or governors: all those jobs and carrots are in BBI - Mdvd, PK, Johos only need to run for MP and drum BBI to be D/PM or CS. It pure self-interest- Raila doesn't need to offer them anything.

About tentacles or coalitions - tell it to the birds Ruto badly wants but LACKS serious partners. I mean Wiper-ANC-Ford K openly distance themselves despite Raila-Sifuna madharao. It funny really - ODM gets billions party funds courtesy of NASA pool - then shamelessly cheat NASA parties - still noone want alliance with Ruto

Demonstrably it poor strategy to wait for 2022 April to form alliances. Cause optics. 2010-12 PNU-Kanu-Wiper-UDM ganged against ODM in G7 sijui KKK. They won by-election after by-election: Matuga 2010 (PNU Mwakwere vs Mwanyoha ODM); Kamukunji 2011 (PNU Hassan vs Weke ODM); Kitutu Masaba 2011 (PNU Nyambati vs Bosire ODM); Kajiado North 2012 (TNA ole Sakuda vs ole Mositet ODM).

See? ODM shrunk - Loss after loss is very bad optics. Baringo is 99% Kalenjin. Wajir Ruto bought out ODM crew with hard, cold cash. His collection of losers says it all: RUTO LACKS SERIOUS ALLIES. It not strategy but failure and isolation that cause his present lone-ranger watermelon disposition. After Kibra, Ganda now Msambweni dog-beating- he need to reassess the hubris - and maybe let Machakos and Nairobi zikae tu na wenyewe.

That voodoo you are drinking about RV 25% - 14 tribes - with all Tunais, Lenkus, Lonyas in BBI you can dream on. At least you have revised 65% hustler magic number to something more spinnable. I said try show us hustler wave in Msambweni - seem now you are winning by losing

In short my Ruto prognosis is negative: sell that stock. With URP, few Bukusu, Kamba - best case scenario is 2010 No 32%. 1:2 rout.

You didn't just type all this nonsense. Like I told you - the time for coalition will come - and it's not now. It the last minute of 2022 - deals are cut in the last minute - based on what you bring to the table. Now it's time to spread as much tentacle as possible. Ruto obviously want to play everywhere including Luo Nyanza. If he comes 2nd in your stronghold - you should be worried - very worried.

As for you - you have already completed coalition agreement btw Raila and pretty much everyone except Ruto . Everyone has agreed that Raila is the candidate - someone else DP - and many non-existent positions. I wonder if all of them will fit in your custom built delusional vehicle.

Meanwhile Ruto is standing alone - not even with Uhuru - and doing pretty well - even when Jubilee is frustrating him. In Jubilee zones like by-election held in say Wajir or Baringo - Raila was no show.

Who won in Kibra? Ruto WON. Who is winning in Msabweni? Ruto. The reason - these are Raila strongholds and Ruto is playing attack - and Raila is defending - if ODM retain their seats - they have WON nothing. It's like a football game - eventually - Ruto will score because he is all over the field. His opponents are parking the bus on their own goal - to defend it.

Ruto strategy will be to as much as possible aim for 40% alone. Then do a coalition with one guy who brings in 10% - and it's gameshot.

Not to enter into a crowded coalition with people who bring 1-2%.

How does Ruto get 40% - it simple - get as much as possible from RV - 25% base. That leave him looking for 25% - if you factor pastoralist somalis-oromos. if Muthama-Kivutha can bring as much as 30% of Ukambani; Coast bring as much as 30%; Luhya's Western bring 30 % ;- that can sum up 10% - taking the tally 35%. If Ruto play even 40% of Nairobi - that takes him close to 40%. You see by time we get to GEMA proper of Central and Eastern - with deal with Kiunjuri group - Ruto doesn't need a whole lot; And we haven't gone for 30% of part of Nyanza.

In simple maths - if Ruto aim for 25% in his home base in RV by taking over all the 14 counties- and then aim30% of the remaining 75 - then we are talking 25%+24%  

And that is why Ruto is odd favourite - and rest have to all gang up - to stand any chance. Let them gang up but there will only be two positions to be shared - PORK and DPORK. I am not sure how 10 or 15 ambitious wannabe will fit into that.

[Nefertiti]

Raila strategy: we can agree if BBI flop he is DOA. Maybe he can back Mdvd-PK or something. Chance of that is very slim as all eggs are in BBI basket.

BBI works as follows: it must be passed in 2022 without consensus to corner Ruto. Expect ombudsman and "600 MPs" to remain to make it unspinnable for hustler base.

D/PORK are pure executive not MPs. These reserved for Raila and Kalonzo. The 2 amigos are seniormost in NASA and ready to sell their kids for this. Kalonzo crocodile tears about Kitui raw deal in 70 new MPs - as he salivate for VP.

D/PM will be MPs from biggest party/coalition- with some powers ala Matiang'i/Duale. PM is bankable by MOU and party position but mostly pompous KYM at PORK beck n call. Good for loyal loudmouths like Joho or Oparanya but softies like Mdvd and PK will have it rough especially facing off  with Ruto shadow cabinet weekly Q&A. This reserved for PK, Mdvd, Matiang'i. Kalonzo will have no problem bagging Kamba. Matiang'i doubling as DPM/CS will have no problem landing Gusii. Mdvd will have it easy due to lack of competition and being in Raila team. PK of course will be propped by Uhuru and Kiraitus/Kimemias/Gema kahunas.

Ruto will land a few Bukusu, Maa or Pwani mkia - but opposing BBI carrots will be nightmare.

CS/Minister and deputies will be MPs and some non-MPs. This 22 CS all the way to 50 create posts for all Johos, Oparanyas, Wa Irias, Kingis. Joho going for CS and positioning to inherit ODM is easy peasy in Mombasa/Pwani.

How does Robina know all this?

Duhh it all over the wall. Kalonzo is so happy. Hapless PK is in all the right places with top level clearance - SH, governor meetings, Bondo, Kamanda home, Atwoli Ildamat, name it. Mdvd is sour about "demotion" to Kalonzo and PK junior but afraid Oparanya will replace him. Matiang'i is Uhuru blue-eyed boy for long. Easy reads.

You can say BBI still faces some landmines but you can't deny post-BBI lineup exists. Nature of politics. Giddy is needed to assuage Kalenjin with Ruto hanging in the works... otherwise he worth next to nothing in raw numbers with Isaacs. Maybe CS. Isaac will not even win back MP while opposing Ruto - he will be ex-officio CS or NCPB chairman or such.. depending on Raila mood

GEMA: Uhuru long went rogue on Ruto. Raila just like PK has no capacity to string all those Gema by himself. It obviously Uhuru pulling the strings with Kamandas, Kimemias, Waigurus, Kang'atas all singing Baba. Uhuru has denied Ruto chance to market Jubilee with Big 4 or by-elections - you have deputy party leader fielding independent candidates under amorphous hustler umbrella - which is difficult to brand. Ruto need to build a new party thanks to Uhuru. Ruto candidates are opposition candidates- while Handshake is de facto GoK - what do you consider rogue behavior? Sudi claims Uhuru has defected to ODM

So unless Ruto magically forge credible lineup - while opposing BBI - I don't see a path to victory. BBI green wall is solid in Ukambani, Gusii, Luhya, Pwani - and Gema is leaning Baba and unbankable for hustler. Too many cookies for the brats - Lunatic Express Nairobi to Nanyuki is back. Gema are getting a windfall as non-Gema outdo each other.

MOAS:
NASA + TNA = NARC
Jubilee - TNA = URP

2010 redux

When did BBI crew agree on Raila candidacy. As far as I know Matiangi, Kalonzo, Gideon, MaDVD, PK, etc all think theu will be the compromise candidate. BBI anit-Ruto gang are only united in their delusion. If you're joining Ruto - you joining with certainty that Ruto will be PORK - and Kiunjuri will be DPORK.

In any case, Ruto would love nothing, than Raila candidacy, because he is such a hard sell in GEMA. The Matiangi, Kalonzo and maDVD will give Ruto serious problem in GEMA - gema can take a second look on them - but for Raila - it will cutting their nose to spit at their face.

Second;outside GEMA, I am not sure how many people Kalonzo or maDVD or Gideon will pull if they go for parliamentary seat That will be something. I guess DPORK will be only solid position - if Raila is the candidate - not sure if kalonzo or PK or Matiangi or Gideon will go for it. The rest of 10 candidates will go for MPs - and aim to become BBI's PM and DPM. NOT enough positions. I think we need BBI 5.0 - to add more positions

Now Ruto looks good in RV - 25% - Lenkus/etc - KAMATUSA+Kikuyu diaspora (once we pick Kiunjuri) is done deal - 25%. In Tranzoia - Luhyas will play ball - and Maasai is more than assured. Ruto looks good also in the pastoralist nation - Duale takes care of that. I believe Duale will be PM or Majority leader for Ruto. That should take Ruto to 30%.

Ruto is of course keen to taken huge part of Nairobi, Western, Gusii-Kuria Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani. I believe is on course to take at min 30% of those areas. That should get him past 40% of the Moi.

Now elephant in the room GEMA - Central and Meru+Eastern - let see - if Uhuru/company seriously go rogue - Ruto will aim for 50-50 split - if not - he will take most of it. And that should get him min past 50% - or 65% if he get endorsed by Uhuru.

Remember we don't know if Uhuru will endorse Raila or Ruto or Matiangi or even a new person . Most people like me think Uhuru is playing Raila but we will know as we head to 2022.

But clearly Ruto look likely to win - with or without Uhuru. That is very good.

That is why Ruto will be all over the map - working as solo candidate - against the wish-washy delusional gang united against him.

[RV Pundit]

Nice delusional Plan A that has magically rebuilt NASA around Raila and added retiring Uhuru into the mix. I wish you had a Plan B - especially when Uhuru goes MIA on you - and focus on his retirement.

Tell you what Ruto Plan B is already as good as Plan A. Ruto plan has far as I can decipher remain the same - him and Kiunjuri going for it. Ruto ethnic maths look good. Without even GEMA he will likely go as high as Moi's 40%. That is pretty awesome.  If you add GEMA - then numbers rises to 65%.

But maybe btw now and 2022 - GEMA will back Raila - for nothing more than a promise in BBI document from Raila. That GEMA PK with possibly few MPs - maybe his best to score 20mps - will become Raila's PM (his best now is to score 30-40mps) - to be fired and hired anytime by imperial president.

It's funny - NASA lineup with PK - backed by Uhuru ile bhangi unafuta.

Raila strategy: we can agree if BBI flop he is DOA. Maybe he can back Mdvd-PK or something. Chance of that is very slim as all eggs are in BBI basket.

BBI works as follows: it must be passed in 2022 without consensus to corner Ruto. Expect ombudsman and "600 MPs" to remain to make it unspinnable for hustler base.

D/PORK are pure executive not MPs. These reserved for Raila and Kalonzo. The 2 amigos are seniormost in NASA and ready to sell their kids for this. Kalonzo crocodile tears about Kitui raw deal in 70 new MPs - as he salivate for VP.

D/PM will be MPs from biggest party/coalition- with some powers ala Matiang'i/Duale. PM is bankable by MOU and party position but mostly pompous KYM at PORK beck n call. Good for loyal loudmouths like Joho or Oparanya but softies like Mdvd and PK will have it rough especially facing off  with Ruto shadow cabinet weekly Q&A. This reserved for PK, Mdvd, Matiang'i. Kalonzo will have no problem bagging Kamba. Matiang'i doubling as DPM/CS will have no problem landing Gusii. Mdvd will have it easy due to lack of competition and being in Raila team. PK of course will be propped by Uhuru and Kiraitus/Kimemias/Gema kahunas.

Ruto will land a few Bukusu, Maa or Pwani mkia - but opposing BBI carrots will be nightmare.

CS/Minister and deputies will be MPs and some non-MPs. This 22 CS all the way to 50 create posts for all Johos, Oparanyas, Wa Irias. Joho going for CS and positioning to inherit ODM is easy peasy in Mombasa/Pwsni.

How does Robina know all this?

Duhh it all over the wall. Kalonzo is so happy. Hapless PK is in all the right places with top level clearance - SH, governor meetings, Bondo, Kamanda home, Atwoli Ildamat, name it. Mdvd is sour about "demotion" to Kalonzo and PK junior but afraid Oparanya will replace him. Matiang'i is Uhuru blue-eyed boy for long. Easy reads.

You can say BBI still faces some landmines but you can't deny post-BBI lineup exists. Nature of politics. Giddy is needed to assuage Kalenjin with Ruto hanging in the works... otherwise he worth next to nothing in raw numbers with Isaacs. Maybe CS. Isaac will not even win back MP while opposing Ruto - he will be ex-officio CS or NCPB chairman or such.. depending on Raila mood

GEMA: Uhuru has already gone rogue. Raila just like PK has no capacity to string all those Gema by himself. It obviously Uhuru pulling the strings with Kamandas, Kimemias, Waigurus, Kang'atas all singing Baba. Uhuru has denied Ruto to market BBI in by-elections- you have deputy party leader fielding independent candidates under amorphous hustler umbrella - which is difficult to brand. Ruto need to build a new party thanks to Uhuru. Ruto candidates are opposition candidates- while Handshake is de facto GoK - what do you consider rogue behavior? Sudi claims Uhuru has defected to ODM

So unless Ruto magically forge credible lineup - while opposing BBI - I don't see a path to victory. BBI green wall is solid in Ukambani, Gusii, Luhya, Pwani - and Gema is leaning Baba and unbankable gor hustler. Too many cookies for the brats - Lunatic Express Nairobi to Nanyuki is back. Gema are getting a windfall as non-Gema outdo each other.

MOAS:
NASA + TNA = NARC
Jubilee - TNA = URP

2010 redux

When did BBI crew agree on Raila candidacy. As far as I know Matiangi, Kalonzo, Gideon, MaDVD, PK, etc all think theu will be the compromise candidate. BBI anit-Ruto gang are only united in their delusion. If you're joining Ruto - you joining with certainty that Ruto will be PORK - and Kiunjuri will be DPORK.

In any case, Ruto would love nothing, than Raila candidacy, because he is such a hard sell in GEMA. The Matiangi, Kalonzo and maDVD will give Ruto serious problem in GEMA - gema can take a second look on them - but for Raila - it will cutting their nose to spit at their face.

Second;outside GEMA, I am not sure how many people Kalonzo or maDVD or Gideon will pull if they go for parliamentary seat That will be something. I guess DPORK will be only solid position - if Raila is the candidate - not sure if kalonzo or PK or Matiangi or Gideon will go for it. The rest of 10 candidates will go for MPs - and aim to become BBI's PM and DPM. NOT enough positions. I think we need BBI 5.0 - to add more positions

Now Ruto looks good in RV - 25% - Lenkus/etc - KAMATUSA+Kikuyu diaspora (once we pick Kiunjuri) is done deal - 25%. In Tranzoia - Luhyas will play ball - and Maasai is more than assured. Ruto looks good also in the pastoralist nation - Duale takes care of that. I believe Duale will be PM or Majority leader for Ruto. That should take Ruto to 30%.

Ruto is of course keen to taken huge part of Nairobi, Western, Gusii-Kuria Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani. I believe is on course to take at min 30% of those areas. That should get him past 40% of the Moi.

Now elephant in the room GEMA - Central and Meru+Eastern - let see - if Uhuru/company seriously go rogue - Ruto will aim for 50-50 split - if not - he will take most of it. And that should get him min past 50% - or 65% if he get endorsed by Uhuru.

Remember we don't know if Uhuru will endorse Raila or Ruto or Matiangi or even a new person . Most people like me think Uhuru is playing Raila but we will know as we head to 2022.

But clearly Ruto look likely to win - with or without Uhuru. That is very good.

That is why Ruto will be all over the map - working as solo candidate - against the wish-washy delusional gang united against him.