Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster

[RV Pundit]

CBK or Central Bankers regulations are key. No tech. Banking is easy - you can write the whole tech one afternoon.

Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.

[Nefertiti]

Satellite is the tech not apps. Uber, Netflix, AWS have not been banned and only physical masts and agents stop them from venturing into payments. Once FB or Google simcard become available on cheap phone - CBK will not ban them - cause besides that being good for development there WTO or whatever rules. Cabs and cable guys - gray city cabs, Citizens or DSTVs - have been crying after they were caught napping by Netflix and Uber. Matiang'i had to drag them by the hair to digital. Mpesa was first-to-market - luck - and need another MJ now to duplicate the magic. Opening Safcom Addis Ababa is DUMB cause there is no big banking gap to fill as in Kenya early 2000s. That an old idea in sunset years. The new opportunities need new solutions.

CBK or Central Bankers regulations are key. No tech. Banking is easy - you can write the whole tech one afternoon.

Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.

[RV Pundit]

Infrastructure is not Tech. It's more engineering. And there isn't so much iteration you can do there. Satellite tech is older than your grand parents.

MPESA strength lies in soft aspect - BEHAVIORAL DATA - is a goldmine.

That is why they released Fuliza - and they have loaned out more money in one year that Chinese loaned Kenya gov in many years. I believe they fulizaed more than 300B - and everday now they loan our more than 1-2B kshs - you get 4% of that - alot of money.

That is innovation you don;'t see.

Fuliza will make Safaricom tonnes of free money.

Google and Facebook strength is in the behavioral data they have on everyone - that is what they sell to advertizers - and make tonnes of money.

Not tech.

I use to think you're politically incompetent but I am beginning to understand it's more than that

Satellite is the tech not apps. Uber, Netflix, AWS have not been banned and only physical masts and agents stop them from venturing into payments. Once FB or Google simcard become available on cheap phone - CBK will not ban them - cause besides that being good for development there WTO or whatever rules. Cabs and cable guys - gray city cabs, Citizens or DSTVs - have been crying after they were caught napping by Netflix and Uber. Matiang'i had to drag them by the hair to digital. Mpesa was first-to-market - luck - and need another MJ now to duplicate the magic. Opening Safcom Addis Ababa is DUMB cause there is no big banking gap to fill as in Kenya early 2000s. That an old idea in sunset years. The new opportunities need new solutions.

CBK or Central Bankers regulations are key. No tech. Banking is easy - you can write the whole tech one afternoon.

Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.

[Nefertiti]

Google, FB, Uber strength is innovation - which create all tech hard or soft. Data is standard commodity in digital economy - not a differentiator. Safaricom has gazillion exabytes of data so what stop Masoko, Little Cab,  or Safcom Cloud, BIG-box TV from going ubiquitous ala Mpesa? Cause they lack innovative ideas to beat Bolt or Google. Safcom stuff is "ubiquitous" - 90% penetration - only within Kenyan borders where MNC are held back by hard infra of masts and agents. In TZ or DRC or RSA or anywhere else Mpesa flop big against Eco-cash (Yu ) - Airtel Money - whatnot. First-to-market advantage. Any sector without hard infra barrier - streaming, cabs, housing, ecommerce - they trip over themselves and quickly get their lunch eaten. They are only good enough to beat Telkoms and KCB not Netflix or Jumia.

Now if you check closely and see that Fuliza or Mshwari shylock is just another till number - one-dimensional growth of same old Mpesa. No new product for years which leave them as sitting ducks waiting to be swallowed by FBs. FB or Google is not worth 800B usd cause of 1B customers - but innovation - which create 00's of products that net 1B customers and 100B usd revenues. I opined a while ago about the one-dimensional growth - organic - is good yet entirely sub-optimal. Cause Safcom remain vertical business offering single product - Mpesa. They need to transform into tech - platform or horizontal business - which is simple but not easy. Tusker dwarf talks good game - of going tech - but must play bigger by laying down the innovation fabric - organizational, process, manpower, budget, autonomy, xyz. The window is so narrow today.

So yes satellite is as old as mankind - but has galloped over the decades into consumer commodity here in Bay Area or Shenzhen - soon on feature phone it go ubiquitous and disrupt telco mast. Only the primed will rip from it. Safcom lacks the focus to see around such small corners until they happen. That innovation day job - ready for disruptions and nail opportunities with new products.

Now what exactly is Safcom exporting to Addis Ababa? Mpesa? Internet? If you think Safcom has no innovation problem

Infrastructure is not Tech. It's more engineering. And there isn't so much iteration you can do there. Satellite tech is older than your grand parents.

MPESA strength lies in soft aspect - BEHAVIORAL DATA - is a goldmine.

That is why they released Fuliza - and they have loaned out more money in one year that Chinese loaned Kenya gov in many years. I believe they fulizaed more than 300B - and everday now they loan our more than 1-2B kshs - you get 4% of that - alot of money.

That is innovation you don;'t see.

Fuliza will make Safaricom tonnes of free money.

Google and Facebook strength is in the behavioral data they have on everyone - that is what they sell to advertizers - and make tonnes of money.

Not tech.

I use to think you're politically incompetent but I am beginning to understand it's more than that

[Nefertiti]

Po-tay-toe po-ter-teu .. I only tolerate you cause you're the top of the retard class.

Infrastructure is not Tech. It's more engineering. And there isn't so much iteration you can do there.

I use to think you're politically incompetent but I am beginning to understand it's more than that

[RV Pundit]

Satellite - how do you solve rain and clouds   The future is fiber; and Safaricom is working to own that too.

Or Google baloons that Telkom brought from Palbo Alto that are crashing in Congo while they are suppose to be in Kenya

Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.

[Nefertiti]

If you tell us why Safcom own nothing outside simcard - as cabs, e-commerce, cloud storage, streaming get cornered by MNC - you will see only state capture can save them. Otherwise satellite will kill them starting with internet then payments. Satellite phones are expensive but will drop precipitously as it go global. Cellular is akin to old landlines - antiquated solution in sunset days.

Data is definitely not the key driver but a small cog in innovation. Otherwise Safcom with 20 years of all local data already getting its butt kicked like kids by Uber and Netflix.

Satellite - how do you solve rain and clouds   The future is fiber; and Safaricom is working to own that too.

Or Google baloons that Telkom brought from Palbo Alto that are crashing in Congo while they are suppose to be in Kenya

Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit if you are really Mpesa admin along with 10 more Joes - and not mere tree farmer - i get why Safcom remain tiny SMB with gazillion till numbers and tariffs. Did you realize since FULIZA 300B miracle last few years the ticker is stuck at 13B usd or shrunk - as AirBnBs skyrocket despite minting losses. Why do you think that is? Cleaning mountain of logs and switching servers cannot attract investors

[RV Pundit]

Telkom is regulated;You cannot just dish satellite phones;
Banking is regulated; you cannot just unleash facebook money;

As for sat technology - that is clearly the past - nobody want an internet that is moody with weather - Africa kind of storm rains and cloudy cover will make nonsense of that.

Safaricom is doing great - only constrained by Vodafone/Vodacom parent company.

They should do more fuliza type of innovation - to build around their ecosystem.

If you tell us why Safcom own nothing outside simcard - as cabs, e-commerce, cloud storage, streaming get cornered by MNC - you will see only state capture can save them. Otherwise satellite will kill them starting with internet then payments. Satellite phones are expensive but will drop precipitously as it go global. Cellular is akin to old landlines - antiquated solution in sunset days.

Data is definitely not the key driver but a small cog in innovation. Otherwise Safcom with 20 years of all local data already getting its butt kicked like kids by Uber and Netflix.

Satellite - how do you solve rain and clouds   The future is fiber; and Safaricom is working to own that too.

Or Google baloons that Telkom brought from Palbo Alto that are crashing in Congo while they are suppose to be in Kenya

Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.

[RV Pundit]

Kenya company. Global companies. Don't compare the two. Many kenyans don't have global ambition. Just regional. And there in lies our problem.  And running mpesa is not a joke - that is one world busiest system - with minimal downtime.

Mpesa handles more than 1 transaction every milisecond.

Pundit if you are really Mpesa admin along with 10 more Joes - and not mere tree farmer - i get why Safcom remain tiny SMB with gazillion till numbers and tariffs. Did you realize since FULIZA 300B miracle last few years the ticker is stuck at 13B usd or shrunk - as AirBnBs skyrocket despite minting losses. Why do you think that is? Cleaning mountain of logs and switching servers cannot attract investors

[gout]

It is not ambition - it is mainly colonial boundaries constraints.  Lack of ambition is colonial imperialistic language conditioning. Kambas were doing cross border trade before IBEA evil empire.

Safaricom cannot penetrate Tanzania due to Magufool pettiness. We welcome Googles, Huawei, Vodacom, Coca Cola to  Africa as they are able to pay huge bribes to presidents and government officials. We kill Softa, Keroche and then claim mwafrika is not ambitious.

[RV Pundit]

I still think it's mentality; American have a global mentality because once they conquer the US; they know they can conquer anything. Kenya have that mentality for east africa. But beyond that - they get scared. So something like MPESA has to be globalized by others.

It is not ambition - it is mainly colonial boundaries constraints.  Lack of ambition is colonial imperialistic language conditioning. Kambas were doing cross border trade before IBEA evil empire.

Safaricom cannot penetrate Tanzania due to Magufool pettiness. We welcome Googles, Huawei, Vodacom, Coca Cola to  Africa as they are able to pay huge bribes to presidents and government officials. We kill Softa, Keroche and then claim mwafrika is not ambitious.

[gout]

Once we invited Vodacom it means it is the one that dictates where mpesa can go. Parasitic leaders once the get the easy money cannot push for real work. You can see the way Huawei is being propped by the Chinese Govt. The retaliation on Google/Facebook in China. Global trade is geopolitical. Government has to have a vision other than land grabbing, Brookside money laundering and kickbacks in Jersey Islands.

I still think it's mentality; American have a global mentality because once they conquer the US; they know they can conquer anything. Kenya have that mentality for east africa. But beyond that - they get scared. So something like MPESA has to be globalized by others.

It is not ambition - it is mainly colonial boundaries constraints.  Lack of ambition is colonial imperialistic language conditioning. Kambas were doing cross border trade before IBEA evil empire.

Safaricom cannot penetrate Tanzania due to Magufool pettiness. We welcome Googles, Huawei, Vodacom, Coca Cola to  Africa as they are able to pay huge bribes to presidents and government officials. We kill Softa, Keroche and then claim mwafrika is not ambitious.

[hk]

In my humble non-tech opinion is that Mpesa might become relegated to feeding(loading) and liquidating (withdraw) to a superior fintech app that sits on top of Mpesa. In this scenario bulk of Mpesa transactions would evaporate. The same way that provision of fibre is good but the bulk of the value chain goes internet companies that utilize internet as infrastructure.

[RV Pundit]

SportPesa was doing exactly that -

In my humble non-tech opinion is that Mpesa might become relegated to feeding(loading) and liquidating (withdraw) to a superior fintech app that sits on top of Mpesa. In this scenario bulk of Mpesa transactions would evaporate. The same way that provision of fibre is good but the bulk of the value chain goes internet companies that utilize internet as infrastructure.

[hk]

SportPesa was doing exactly that -

In my humble non-tech opinion is that Mpesa might become relegated to feeding(loading) and liquidating (withdraw) to a superior fintech app that sits on top of Mpesa. In this scenario bulk of Mpesa transactions would evaporate. The same way that provision of fibre is good but the bulk of the value chain goes internet companies that utilize internet as infrastructure.

I get your point about sportpesa. But I meant something like pesapal, jumiapay or eazzy pay or even paypal, once the money is loaded to this apps, Mpesa is out of the loop. Those apps can be used  to make peer to peer payments or to businesses. Mpesa would be starved of all those transactions outside their platform only cash in on loading and withdraw. That's what I meant by being commoditized. Obviously the apps would have to offer something more compelling than just payments platform just like Mpesa.

[KenyanPlato]

Someone who wants to invest can come in and dethrone MPESA. It will be hard but it is doerable. There is nothing insanely unique about Mpesa in this era