Raila failure is to win is nothing suprising and got nothing to do with System.

[Nefertiti]

You say KANU was anti-GEMA coalition so they rejected Uhuru. But entire Kenya was taught tribalism yet you know say it is about class. Do you not see the contradiction? If Gema will never trust Raila because of Kibaki and Uhuru propaganda - what makes Kenyans reject their tribal leaders and embrace one rich hustler? These are the same Kenyans - they cannot be conservative and reject Raila then be liberal at the same time to enbrace class. There is no basis for your arguments. Tribe is very entrenched.

Narc 2 didn't just happen because you looked for somebody here and there - and make a coalition. NARC started as Non-GEMA revolt against the choice of Uhuru by Moi. Moi had built a coalition of small tribes mostly kamatusa, somalis, coast, ukambani - basically the old ODM minus Luos. He then took in NDP. Naturally this coalition was built around anti-Kikiyuism. When Moi turned 360 and endorsed to endorse GEMA it lead to revolt. That revolt gave the country the momentum to beat Moi.

Now BBI - what will make people vote for such unpopular thing?  Okay let even forget that - let talk tribal cards - who will head the ticket? Raila? GEMA elite cannot trust or sell Raila. Kalonzo will be out of such BBI. maDVD will be out of such BBi.

Tell you what we will have Raila's BBI - like I told you - compete for no 2 with Matiangi-Kagwe-gideon project - they will struggle to get 20%. Raila's BBI will have the usual - Joho, Oparanya, token gema - etc - likes of Gideon Moi and Uhuru are dyed in the wool Raila haters - trust me they will never back Raila.

If Raila really and truly wants to have some competition in 2022 - he should become a kingmaker. He comes with 15% boost for any candidate.

But will Raila at his age accept to be a kingmaker.

Okay I think the answer is clear - Ruto is the NEXT PORK baring a disaster.

5) NARC 2 aka BBI coalition headed by Raila will wipe the floor with Mobutu. Hustler nation is a lie - well except in Tangatanga echo chamber. Poor vs rich has been preached since 1992 - and all rich and poor split perfectly into tribes. This includes 2002 Big 4 tribal coalition against Kalenjin. Sonko is the only example you can tout as cohesive slum poor - but it all smoke - primary was mlolongo ukora. General elections was Jubilee vs NASA tribes. I mean your own MOAS here were "bullseye" on Sonko 53% vs 47% Kidero - based on tribal census.

In short - hustler nation is a novel concept or experiment. But it Mobutu only hope so you are dropping magic numbers 40%, 65%, 50% - without any factual basis. A proper basis would be number of Kenyans under the poverty line - which I think is 70% - and run that experiment in Msambweni.

You see Mobutu - just like his looting "hustles" - cannot make it in any fair match. He brazenly bribed voters in Kibra then cried when the favor was returned. He is now bribing voters and rich vs poor incitement - but he whines all over about police harassment. He is addicted to impunity - sadly his opponents are better equipped in it.

Power as far as we know is taken. It's not given. Only a fool goes around expecting to be given on a silver platter. It's reason Ruto has campaigned non-stop since 1997 when he entered politics.

Raila indeed was rigged out in 2007 but the rest he lost fair and square begin in 1982, 1992, 1997, 2013 and 2017. That ODM guys like you feel cynical and defeated is understandable but watch Ruto beat the so called system at the ballot box. And it won't even be close.What you call system - Ruto has been part of it - in Moi's and Uhuru's -  it's very weaken now - unlike say Moi time - and yet Moi always had to work his butt. Right now judiciary is independent and makes any system move null and void.

2022 if everything is kept constant we will see

1) Ruto - Kiunjuri - Ruto will score more than 60%. Ruto is likely to start with solid 25% in rift valley alone.

2) Raila - Gema poodle - any -  Raila will come 2nd with less than 20%. Most likely someone as desperate as Waiguru. or even PK.

3) Matiangi-Kagwe  (or reverse) - this one will likely be the 'system' project running under Jubilee. I don't belive Raila will be trusted by GEMA elite or can be sold in GEMA (you can see games they are playing with BBI) - this one at very best will struggle to get 15% but may fly at least with some Gusii people...Nyachae got 4% there. so if they really work hard they may get 50% of GEMA - about 13% plus gusii 4% - and but they are confirmed dead elsewhere.

4) Madvd/Mutua/Kalonzo -  They will score btw 2-4%.

Now the only risk I see is all of them merging to stop Ruto - but who will head the ticket. Raila nope. He already messed up with his NASA partners. Matiangi - Kagwe - are going to be arguably the most incompotent hated arrogant bunch with zero political experiences.

As you can clearly see Ruto is destined for PORK. At this point in time Ruto doesn't even need GEMA votes. The Hustler Nation is national.

And tell me how system will rig Ruto out when it's not even close.

The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.

[Nefertiti]

If you want yo talk letter of the law - fundraising is legal yes - but so is public order act. Well Havi might run to court - but the law gives police discretion to assess threat to peace. It all legal. You can keep the meeting cancellations as evidence after Mobutu dog beating if you think police are breaking the law.

Mobutu fundraisers are loot distribution - every fool knows this. Just like we know police are biased. They are both legal - I have no evidence Mobutu stole the money - you have no evidence OCS is biased. The Kenol and Buzeki violence are solid proof hustler meetings are threat to peace.

Whether you argue law or morality or integrity- you will come up short.

Fundraising is allowed until six months to election. Then it become vote bribery. If you see Ruto in 2022 doing fund-raising or giving out wheelbarrow - please keep it as evidence - so you can take it to supreme court.

The abuse of police to stop people from meeting is odius - and will make Uhuru even more unpopular - and will make Ruto movement even more popular.

Pundit and Noway - if you doubt you are delusional - explain again how voter bribery is okay but not abuse of machinery. I forgot the spin. Wheelbarrowism is basically loot distribution program.

[RV Pundit]

I have given you a whole book written by Phds on kenya ethnic politics. It not that stupid. That is why many leaders have been rejected even when offered big post. MaDVD was rejected as Mp while he was Moi Vice President for 3 months. There are many many examples. There is a nexus btw TRIBE AND TRIBAL INTERESTS.  That is why most leaders have to work hard, show some development and generally be on top of community interests. The moment you pursue personal interest that are inimical to community interest - you lose the plot. 

A good example no 1)Uhuru - GEMA have 1M diaspora lifes and properties on cross hair in case of fallout btw Ruto and Uhuru. That is community interest.
Uhuru maybe no longer can tolerate Ruto. That is personal interest.

Uhuru therefore for last 3yrs has really struggle to dislogde Ruto from Mt Kenya hearts and minds. His personal interest is clashing with community interest.

Example no 2) How Moi died a Lonely Man.

Understand what happened to KANU. Moi for many years had built anti-GEMA coalition - who were his main competition. There was agreement that either Kalonzo or Saitoti or Ngala or MaDVD or even Raila would nick it after Kalenjin. This was coalition btw Luhyas, Kalenjin, Kamatusa, coast and Ukambani - including Gusii. Raila came late and I don't think he was acceptable. He would have face the same revolt as Uhuru didi.

Now what Moi did - was to turn 360 and endorse a Kikuyu. That was huge betrayal of all those communities and their hopes.

It akin to what is happening in central - if Uhuru was to turn 360 and endorse Raila. It will lead to a revolt...which is already underway anyway. Uhuru/GEMA have spend a generations building anti-Raila coalition and therefore to turn 360 - and endorse Raila would be seen as ultimate betrayal of the cause.

Kikuyus are wonderng like Kalenjin if Uhuru has been be-witched or got seniled or lost his mind but I think Uhuru is playing a game here. It doesn't make sense to them.

If he insist on Raila - he will end up like Moi - derided even by his own people. Moi spend the last few years wondering what he ever did to Kalenjin for them to hate him - yet to him he had done a lot (true) for the community.

You say KANU was anti-GEMA coalition so they rejected Uhuru. But entire Kenya was taught tribalism yet you know say it is about class. Do you not see the contradiction? If Gema will never trust Raila because of Kibaki and Uhuru propaganda - what makes Kenyans reject their tribal leaders and embrace one rich hustler? These are the same Kenyans - they cannot be conservative and reject Raila then be liberal at the same time to enbrace class. There is no basis for your arguments. Tribe is very entrenched.

[Kichwa]

Pundit is so full of crap.  He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic  populism.  The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.

You say KANU was anti-GEMA coalition so they rejected Uhuru. But entire Kenya was taught tribalism yet you know say it is about class. Do you not see the contradiction? If Gema will never trust Raila because of Kibaki and Uhuru propaganda - what makes Kenyans reject their tribal leaders and embrace one rich hustler? These are the same Kenyans - they cannot be conservative and reject Raila then be liberal at the same time to enbrace class. There is no basis for your arguments. Tribe is very entrenched.

Narc 2 didn't just happen because you looked for somebody here and there - and make a coalition. NARC started as Non-GEMA revolt against the choice of Uhuru by Moi. Moi had built a coalition of small tribes mostly kamatusa, somalis, coast, ukambani - basically the old ODM minus Luos. He then took in NDP. Naturally this coalition was built around anti-Kikiyuism. When Moi turned 360 and endorsed to endorse GEMA it lead to revolt. That revolt gave the country the momentum to beat Moi.

Now BBI - what will make people vote for such unpopular thing?  Okay let even forget that - let talk tribal cards - who will head the ticket? Raila? GEMA elite cannot trust or sell Raila. Kalonzo will be out of such BBI. maDVD will be out of such BBi.

Tell you what we will have Raila's BBI - like I told you - compete for no 2 with Matiangi-Kagwe-gideon project - they will struggle to get 20%. Raila's BBI will have the usual - Joho, Oparanya, token gema - etc - likes of Gideon Moi and Uhuru are dyed in the wool Raila haters - trust me they will never back Raila.

If Raila really and truly wants to have some competition in 2022 - he should become a kingmaker. He comes with 15% boost for any candidate.

But will Raila at his age accept to be a kingmaker.

Okay I think the answer is clear - Ruto is the NEXT PORK baring a disaster.

5) NARC 2 aka BBI coalition headed by Raila will wipe the floor with Mobutu. Hustler nation is a lie - well except in Tangatanga echo chamber. Poor vs rich has been preached since 1992 - and all rich and poor split perfectly into tribes. This includes 2002 Big 4 tribal coalition against Kalenjin. Sonko is the only example you can tout as cohesive slum poor - but it all smoke - primary was mlolongo ukora. General elections was Jubilee vs NASA tribes. I mean your own MOAS here were "bullseye" on Sonko 53% vs 47% Kidero - based on tribal census.

In short - hustler nation is a novel concept or experiment. But it Mobutu only hope so you are dropping magic numbers 40%, 65%, 50% - without any factual basis. A proper basis would be number of Kenyans under the poverty line - which I think is 70% - and run that experiment in Msambweni.

You see Mobutu - just like his looting "hustles" - cannot make it in any fair match. He brazenly bribed voters in Kibra then cried when the favor was returned. He is now bribing voters and rich vs poor incitement - but he whines all over about police harassment. He is addicted to impunity - sadly his opponents are better equipped in it.

Power as far as we know is taken. It's not given. Only a fool goes around expecting to be given on a silver platter. It's reason Ruto has campaigned non-stop since 1997 when he entered politics.

Raila indeed was rigged out in 2007 but the rest he lost fair and square begin in 1982, 1992, 1997, 2013 and 2017. That ODM guys like you feel cynical and defeated is understandable but watch Ruto beat the so called system at the ballot box. And it won't even be close.What you call system - Ruto has been part of it - in Moi's and Uhuru's -  it's very weaken now - unlike say Moi time - and yet Moi always had to work his butt. Right now judiciary is independent and makes any system move null and void.

2022 if everything is kept constant we will see

1) Ruto - Kiunjuri - Ruto will score more than 60%. Ruto is likely to start with solid 25% in rift valley alone.

2) Raila - Gema poodle - any -  Raila will come 2nd with less than 20%. Most likely someone as desperate as Waiguru. or even PK.

3) Matiangi-Kagwe  (or reverse) - this one will likely be the 'system' project running under Jubilee. I don't belive Raila will be trusted by GEMA elite or can be sold in GEMA (you can see games they are playing with BBI) - this one at very best will struggle to get 15% but may fly at least with some Gusii people...Nyachae got 4% there. so if they really work hard they may get 50% of GEMA - about 13% plus gusii 4% - and but they are confirmed dead elsewhere.

4) Madvd/Mutua/Kalonzo -  They will score btw 2-4%.

Now the only risk I see is all of them merging to stop Ruto - but who will head the ticket. Raila nope. He already messed up with his NASA partners. Matiangi - Kagwe - are going to be arguably the most incompotent hated arrogant bunch with zero political experiences.

As you can clearly see Ruto is destined for PORK. At this point in time Ruto doesn't even need GEMA votes. The Hustler Nation is national.

And tell me how system will rig Ruto out when it's not even close.

The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.

[RV Pundit]

Tribal voting is still intact. Thank you. If you were worried. You can almost take this to the bank. Ruto will carry Kalenjin. Raila will carry Luo. You don't see me talk about those. maDVD has an edge in Maragoli. Kalonzo is struggling in Ukambani. Matiangi has an edge in Gusii. Now the big elephant is GEMA/Mt Kenya(25-30% depending on demographic realities). We just don't know how that will pan out. Suffice to say Ruto has serious support there. Uhuru and others are trying to take that support away.What we know for sure Ruto has added lot more small tribes and sub-tribes to his coalition. Raila is losing support. Ruto has found a winning momentum with Hustlers Nation to rally his tribal coalition.

Pundit is so full of crap.  He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic  populism.  The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.

[Nefertiti]

This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig

Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila 

Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.

Pundit is so full of crap.  He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic  populism.  The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.

[RV Pundit]

My record speak for itself. I never delete past posts. You just struggling to accept the reality of incoming PORK.

This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig

Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila 

Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.

Pundit is so full of crap.  He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic  populism.  The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.

[Kichwa]

Ok Pundit, we now get it. Ruto will win elections and Ouru will have no choice but hand over the reigns of power to the son of Surgoi so that Ruto can finish the Kenyattaa dynasty once and for all.  Keep on sucking your thumb.

My record speak for itself. I never delete past posts. You just struggling to accept the reality of incoming PORK.

This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig

Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila 

Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.

Pundit is so full of crap.  He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic  populism.  The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.

[Nowayhaha]

Ok Pundit, we now get it. Ruto will win elections and Ouru will have no choice but hand over the reigns of power to the son of Surgoi so that Ruto can finish the Kenyattaa dynasty once and for all.  Keep on sucking your thumb.

My record speak for itself. I never delete past posts. You just struggling to accept the reality of incoming PORK.

This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig

Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila 

Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.

Pundit is so full of crap.  He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic  populism.  The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.

Uhuru and Ruto have  been in the same camp save for 3 months in 2017.This is a fact
Second fact Uhuru and Ruto fell out because of BBI . Ruto saw it a s calculated move to divide Jubilee and revive Railas 2022 .
Fact number three Uhuru went to negotiations alone same did Raila. If they were unselfish they would have gone with their running mates.
Fact Number 4 , No one apart from Uhuru and Raila knows what was negotiated which leads to fact number 5 the handshake has made the Govnt more corrupt and kenyans much more poorer.
Fact number 6 .Ruto adores Uhuru if it was someone else he would have made Uhurus life difficult
Fact number 7 Ruto is the leading presidential candidate as we speak.
Fact number 8 .Uhuru will handover power to Ruto and Ruto will not go after Kenyattas dynasty , aame as happened with Moi and Kibaki. The rulimg class know how to take care of theirs.