You're talking Ruto support 10yrs ago. Ruto since then has not slept like you. Ruto woked Western, Gusii, Coast and Matusa - and Jubilee 5% improvement in 2017 was as result. And he hasn't stopped.
I think we already have Kivutha.
I tell GEMA will come running on their own because already karibu gari tosha.
Ruto need Moi's 40% - by taking ODM back to Luo Nyanza and restoring Moi constituency of small tribes- and he is doing that - and then 10% he can get anywhere
You see Kikuyus should be worried now because Ruto technically can pick anyone including with 10% - and nick it.
At best GEMA are 30% (maybe less if we go by population - now roughly 22%) - and Luos 10% - there is 60% percent out there.
Anyway Ruto is pretty good position now - and looks likely to improve Jubilee 55% to 65%. Raila pretty in bad shape - and now literally depend on Uhuru
- and could well end up 15%.
URP zone - Kalenjin 95%; MATUSA half with serious Maa troubles in Mau - likes of Ole Kina need a boogeman to crown himself as New Ntimama and Kipsigis are handy enemy. NFD half with serious challenges in Mandera, Isiolo, etc - Mandera had en masse defection to BBI under Roba, same as Isiolo under Yattani and Kuti. Duale needs to take the bull by the horns but instead he blow hot and cold over BBI parliamentary. Duale knows pastoralists as most non-Gema back parliamentary for obvious reason.
Now non-Gema - foxy Malala oscillates between ODM and ANC. Won't touch Mobutu without a mask. All Mdvds, Kalonzo, Joho, etc are posturing but STRICTLY IN BBI TENT. Cause that is a big golden parachute to avoid crash-landing. Most kahunas and retiring governors will run for MP and claim to have DPM or CS in the bag. That easy-peasy for Oparanyas, Nanoks, Kingis. But under Mobutu they have nothing to sell - Mdvd or Kalonzo has no option but retire under hustler premise - where they are labeled dinosaur dynasty.
GEMA we know the grind despite all the "ground" theories. That everyone has been intimidated but ground is with Mobutu. Please test the ground first in Msambweni - I already see the tail between the legs You have thud numbers everywhere.