Ruto has won all the by-elections he has wanted except for Kibra - where Raila employed violence. He won Baringo and Wajir. These by-elections are not such a big deal. Technically Ruto and Jubilee members will remain in Jubilee until 2022. But they already move out to Hustler Nation movement. These are just the motions of a divorce.
Jubilee was only important to tightly couple with GEMA. It's achieved that objective.
ODM is NDP that tightly coupled with KANU.
Raila lost KANU nomination to Uhuru, quit KANU but he got KANU constituency that he has been bragging all over town with it.
You don't understand POLITICS.
Once you're tightly coupled - it not easy to divorce - and that is the whole idea of Jubilee - GEMA nations have exchanged fluids with Ruto - and will not abandon him for someone like Raila.
It won't be easy to de-couple Ruto from GEMA - GEMA only know about jubilee - hiyo TNA/URP long forgotten.
And it's not a spin - because it was I told you in 2016.
He had full control of URP and Tangatanga would legally field candidates. Now with political parties act it back to UDM troubles. See the conundrum in swing turf like Msambweni where he is testing the waters - backing independent candidate is dicy - cause they are not really a brand. If he backs local party - the owners can later disown him if they become popular. It a nightmare situation - he still clings to Uhurutopia and heap all blame on Murathe or Tuju - with his own upstart he must face Uhuru squarely. This is a scary thought - it easier to spin about massive ground support without any proof. And cry Huduma is for rigging him.