Not sharing GoK is chess move by Raila:
1) avoids conflict with greedy Kenyatta and GEMA. You Pundit speculate the Uhuruto fallout was sparked by graft envy where harebrained Mobutu outlooted the boss. There is no reason for any UhuRao fallout.
2) avoid incumbency mess which is stenchy skunk - especially 11th hour looting by Murathes. Now Tangatanga are making fools of themselves to tie Raila to Kagwe or Murathe covid mess. This of course deny Mobutu outsider/underdog advantage which would be slumdunk if Otienos and Onyangos were running Treasury or MoH.
3) deny Mobutu anti-Kikuyu sentiment leverage he need to carry non-Gema. I have been reading Pundit's vain struggles to position Mobutu as the new non-Gema king.. ha! Raila doesn't need direct Gema control - he learnt painful lesson with Kalenjin. Instead just let Uhuru and his lurkies do the work. Mobutu mlolongo blunder of killing the upstarts now leave him at Uhuru mercy. Gema will vote where Uhuru tell them - I mean even before formal endorsement PK is already routing MKs. The sentiment on the ground is we'd want to repay Mobutu but Uhuru will rig him so it pointless. The low morale already paved way for surrender. Commonsense tell you - if Mobutu is so popular his boy MK would be running circles around hapless PK, no? About non-Gema - Mobutu 1M1S betrayal was risking Gema 2 birds in hand for Mijikenda 1 skinny sparrow in the bush. Very foolish. Can you tell us now- who is Mobutu dog in Msambweni? Of course you can't place the bet because the odds are so stark it a joke to claim Mobutu has Mijikenda.
So again, main point. Mobutu is shackled to GoK - but without the machinery. He claim Huduma is for rigging- he is told he launched it. He cry MoH theft - we are reminded of his endless harambees. He can't resign because he needs to play victim - but he won't be fired or impeached - so he will push Msambweni by remote control. Jubilee is intact he merely can't bank on it - he can take collective responsibility after Tuju press release. You see amorphous hustler nation is not a strategy - he rares to go full steam but is caged. Mobutu can't resign - he fear Raila will be sworn in as DP then Uhuru resign
- so basically Raila has machinery without incumbent burden.
Now Mobutu is opposing BBI but it literally Maraga- sanctioned. No sane Kenyan wants a crisis or election on top of covid. BBI is guaranteed sure next parliament meet gender quota.
GEMA will never vote Raila... what for? They will just vote PK.
GEMA will never back Raila for PORK. My exactly 30yrs of punditry tells me NO.
Find something else. Remember in 2010 - they used Raila to pass constitution
Anyway if GEMA wants BBI - Raila is not part of the equation. It's Raila to take PM if he wants...not the other way round. Assuming GEMA elite will manage to handle the hustler nation.
This is so easy predict - it's like 2002 - you just knew MOI WOULD NEVER EVER TRUST RAILA - yes occasionally he'd deal with him
But like now - Uhuru - it's always with 10 feet pole.
I don't know if it's naivety or desperation - but Luos are funny breed of people. They cannot see what is there in the open.
If somebody loves you - why not share gov now? Why are you a mpango wa kando?
GEMA prince Uhuru already took Raila to Mama Ngina - that the bullseye shot. There is no Raila ogre outside of the Tangatanga echo chamber - that Luo-can't-win anthem died in 07. RV-GEMA oil&water happened 2013. Luo-GEMA we thought referendum would reshuffle the deck but mere trojan already did it. Now it solid NASA parties vs partitioned Jubilee - the internal beef so sour - it akin to the Berlin Wall. None of the other parties back Ruto - not even Narc K - maybe PDP? So you now have amorphous hustler nation - a slogan - but you are discussing ODM It not even known who is your hustler dog in Msambweni.