RV PUNDIT - PLEASE ADVICE THE % OF KALENJIN IN NAROK, TRANSZOI & NAKURU COUNTIES

[Nowayhaha]

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Kalenjin form a substantial number of population though in minority in the following counties , NAROK, TRANSZOIA, BUNGOMA & NAKURU what is their population respectively .
Just going through Kalenjin ethnonationalism and trying to figure out how the New Constitution & New politics post 2002-2007 era has impacted it  .

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/31406272_Ethnic_Violence_and_the_Prospects_for_Democracy_in_the_Aftermath_of_the_2007_Kenyan_Elections

The fifth type of conflict in the crisis of the postelection period, and the most ominous for the future  of  Kenya, was marked by a resurgent Kalenjin ethno-nationalism that motivated a renewed campaign of ethnic cleansing of Kikuyus by Kalenjins in the Rift Valley. This violence caused the highest number of deaths and displacements and now poses the greatest long-term risk to the stability of the state. In the Rift Valley, the stolen election  was  a  pretext to drive Kikuyu “settlers”  from areas  of the  Rift Valley deemed  to  belong to “the Kalenjin,” a struggle that has deep historical roots. White farmers in the colonial era typically imported Kikuyu farmworkers, many of whom in the independence era remained (though many were expelled in the Mau Mau Emergency of the 1950s).

In the postindependence era, tens of thousands of  landless Kikuyu were resettled on ex-settler properties in  the Rift Valley.  In 1991, with the  dawn of “multiparty democracy,” Kalenjin politicians in the Rift Valley orchestrated clashes to secure
the power of then president Moi.Supporters of the ruling party, the Kenya Afri-can National  Union  (KANU), led by politicians in Moi’s inner circle, worried that  opposition parties  were  attracting strong  support  from the  Kikuyu. They organized squads  of young men to attack Kikuyu residents in  the Rift Valley, particularly around the towns of Eldoret and Molo, to drive out potential opposi-tion voters and intimidate those who remained. Their strategy, by all accounts supported by the president himself, was successful. Moi won himself ten more years as president by means of “clashes” such as these (though he also bribed vot-ers and officials, repressed dissenters, and rigged his way through elections). At each election since 1992 —1997, 2002, and 2007 — ethnic clashes have occurred in the Rift Valley.11 In each instance the primary perpetrators were people calling themselves “Kalenjin,” and the principal victims were Kikuyu, although many innocent Kalenjin were also targets of retaliatory killings.Yet  while there is a surface similarity to the recurring ethnic conflicts sur-rounding elections  in the Rift Valley, the 2008 conflicts  differed from  earlier clashes in crucial respects. Unlike previous episodes of ethnic violence in the Rift Valley, the mobilization of fighters in 2008 was not organized solely by politi-cal leaders seeking to manipulate the ethnic logic of electoral politics to retain power.

Rather, the emerging Kalenjin political leadership, while perhaps instigat-ing some violent clashes, took advantage of the widespread attacks on Kikuyus in the region, which arose more or less spontaneously with mostly local and unco-ordinated mobilization, and the resulting retaliations against Kalenjin to secure their positions as spokespersons for the Kalenjin.12 The  2007 election marks a changing of the guard in Kalenjin leadersip. Electors comprehensively repudiated former president Moi and his family. Moi had been the central figure in Kalenjin life for more than a half century. Indeed, the very existence of “the Kalenjin” as a plausible ethnic category may owe more to Moi than to anyone else.13 Shortly before the election, Moi  came out in support of Kibaki. The general response among Kalenjin voters, however, was derision.

Many people assumed Moi had made a deal with Kibaki to secure immunity for himself in corruption cases that the opposition might be expected to prosecute if they gained office.In 2007, for the first time since Moi gained the vice presidency after indepen-dence, the Kalenjin as a community entered the elections feeling excluded from the inner sanctums of the state. For some years prior to the elections, Kalenjin nation-alism was marked by a collective ressentiment directed primarily at Kikuyu but expressed in frustration at Moi. During his years in office Moi perfected the prac-tice of patrimonial ethnic politics initiated by his predecessor, Jomo Kenyatta.14 When Moi was forced from office in 2002, however, and his chosen successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, was defeated in the polls, his former supporters began not only to resent being excluded from the main sources of patronage opportunities but also to critically reassess the spoils that they had  received when “Uncle Dan” was in office. A consensus emerged that Moi had dispensed favors primarily to a select group of cronies, while benefiting to an unfair degree the Tugen “subtribe” of the Kalenjin at the expense of other groups, particularly the larger Nandi group. He was also seen to have continued aiding Kikuyus at Kalenjin expense.Rather  than  follow  the instructions  of  their  former leader  and deliver their votes to Kibaki, Kalenjin districts voted overwhelmingly for the opposition.

Two of Moi’s sons were also humiliated in their election attempts. In the postelection violence, locals took the opportunity to burn some of Moi’s properties and those of their impoverished Kikuyu neighbors. The most notable Kalenjin leader is now William Ruto, allied to ODM leader Odinga. Although he is seen in some quar-ters as a violence-inciting warlord, Ruto claims the mantle of Kalenjin leadership because he delivered their votes for the ODM. As the Kalenjin lawyer and colum-nist Donald Kipkorir pronounced in April 2008: “In unanimity, Kalenjins have chosen Mr Ruto their leader, and on their behalf will he sit at the nation-state table to represent their interests.”15 In the negotiations leading to the “grand coalition” government, Ruto was backed by the implicit threat that his community, if left dissatisfied, would resume its violent struggles.In March 2008 I traveled to the Rift Valley district of Nakuru with a colleague to visit my in-laws and to report on the aftermath of the violence.16 On the way to Nakuru we stopped outside Gilgil at the farm of J. M. Kariuki, the socialist politi-cian assassinated in 1975 after falling out with President Kenyatta. Thirty Kalen-jin families, who had lived on the property for generations, since before Kariuki bought it from a white farmer at independence, had been burned out and chased away by Kikuyus in revenge for attacks on Kikuyus farther north.

 The houses had been small structures of mud and thatch. Nothing remained but scorched ground. The locals we met expressed sorrow at the plight of their neighbors and insisted that the perpetrators came from far away. Later that day we toured farms in the Rongai district outside Nakuru where Kikuyu homes had been burned. Some mud walls remained standing; everything that  could be stolen or  burned was gone. Thousands of Kikuyu had also been displaced from their homes in the surround-ing countryside and  were  living in  refugee camps  in the  Nakuru Agricultural Showgrounds and the stadium.None of the Kalenjins we spoke with in the Rift Valley evinced any sympathy for his or her missing neighbors. During my previous visit, in the northern sum-mer of 2007, relations between  the two groups in the  district  had not seemed particularly  troubled. 

Indeed, my  Kalenjin  in-laws  were not  alone  in  having close friends, lovers, and co-parents from the Kikuyu community. On my visit in March, however, I found the ruined houses of people I had thought of as family friends along with those of many other neighbors. The consensus after the 2007 election was that Kikuyu did not belong in this part of the world. “This is Kalenjin territory,” was a steady refrain. One woman insisted to us that the Kikuyu actu-ally belonged in Congo, whence they had been imported by white farmers in the days of colonialism

[RV Pundit]

That is tragic - One woman insisted to us that the Kikuyu actu-ally belonged in Congo, whence they had been imported by white farmers in the days of colonialism

[RV Pundit]

For tribal census as of 2009 look at MOASS.

[Nowayhaha]

For tribal census as of 2009 look at MOASS.

Share the 2019 Upadated one  , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available 

[RV Pundit]

Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.

Share the 2019 Upadated one  , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available 

[Nowayhaha]

Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.

Share the 2019 Upadated one  , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available 

From 2009 Census with the data yoiu have provided  , with old politics and old constitution ,  They formed
TransNzoia  - 30%
Narok  -35%
Nakuru  -37 %
Bungoma  12%
 
Im surprised that In Uasin Ngishu they formed  58 %

It would be really interesting to see how it looks like now 10 years later .

[Njuri Ncheke]

Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.

Share the 2019 Upadated one  , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available 

So those are your figures where are the KNBS figures?

[RV Pundit]

If you check those figures are precise - I did a lot of research - most of them are accurate. Which one do you dispute.

So those are your figures where are the KNBS figures?

[RV Pundit]

Kalenjin are settled in nearly all RV counties save for 3 - Samburu and Turkana - well Kajiado and Nairobi - And Machakos - some of us represent in Mavoko - plus Bungoma.

So it's no longer the small tribe you thought - 6.5m people.

Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.

Share the 2019 Upadated one  , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available 

From 2009 Census with the data yoiu have provided  , with old politics and old constitution ,  They formed
TransNzoia  - 30%
Narok  -35%
Nakuru  -37 %
Bungoma  12%
 
Im surprised that In Uasin Ngishu they formed  58 %

It would be really interesting to see how it looks like now 10 years later .

[Kadudu]

So what do you want us to conclude? Even Somalis are found everywhere in Kenya today.

Kalenjin are settled in nearly all RV counties save for 3 - Samburu and Turkana - well Kajiado and Nairobi - And Machakos - some of us represent in Mavoko - plus Bungoma.

So it's no longer the small tribe you thought - 6.5m people.

[Nowayhaha]

Kalenjin are settled in nearly all RV counties save for 3 - Samburu and Turkana - well Kajiado and Nairobi - And Machakos - some of us represent in Mavoko - plus Bungoma.

So it's no longer the small tribe you thought - 6.5m people.

Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.

Share the 2019 Upadated one  , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available 

From 2009 Census with the data yoiu have provided  , with old politics and old constitution ,  They formed
TransNzoia  - 30%
Narok  -35%
Nakuru  -37 %
Bungoma  12%
 
Im surprised that In Uasin Ngishu they formed  58 %

It would be really interesting to see how it looks like now 10 years later .

Exactly my point when provinces as defined in the precious constituion mattered Kalenjins appeared a force to reckon and used the province as a the basis of ethnonationalism.
With the introduction of the new constitution, its very evident that Kalenjin are only a majority in the following counties 5 only
Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet,,Nandi, Bomet ans Kericho
They are a minority on Uasin Ngishu,Nakuru, Narok and Transnzoia
Insignificant numbers in kajiado , Samaburu  Turkana and Laikipia
Do pokots even regard themselves as Kalenjin ?

Now with the new constitution and Gorvernors office holding alot of sway in matrers counties any war will lead to the minority tribe getting affected  from resource wise , mobilization and organization, logistics etc

It just baffles me why you think a war will give you an advantage in matters politcs

The battle ground is different now in comparison to 2007.
If a war was to erupt now God forbid, all communities in former  Rift Valley will be affected but Kalenjin will be the most affected

[RV Pundit]

Kalenjin dominate in 7 counties.
They are major players in 3 more  - Nakuru, Tranzoia and Narok.
They are some little force in Bungoma - and have insignificant numbers elsewhere.

Now why would Kalenjin fight. LAND LAND LAND. There is already serious population explosion and youth unemployment.

Kalenjin lay an historical claim to land from Tranzoia to Naviasha.

Any war provide them opportunity to kick out "foreigners" - and occupy the land.

The foreigners after being kicked will come back and  sell their land cheaply - if they ever comeback.

So there is incentive for those in Tranzoia and sorrounding counties to star war there - for those in Uasing Gishu and sorrounding - and for those in Nakuru and areas.

So beyond the politics - the foreigners owning land in RV is seen as another Mau - a frontier for the landless.

Even in places where land was sold genuinely like in Sondu or Nandi - Kalenjin will stick kick out foreigners on any pretext.

They are just waiting for opportunity. You give them the opportunity - and they do it.

Exactly my point when provinces as defined in the precious constituion mattered Kalenjins appeared a force to reckon and used the province as a the basis of ethnonationalism.
With the introduction of the new constitution, its very evident that Kalenjin are only a majority in the following counties 5 only
Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet,,Nandi, Bomet ans Kericho
They are a minority on Uasin Ngishu,Nakuru, Narok and Transnzoia
Insignificant numbers in kajiado , Samaburu  Turkana and Laikipia
Do pokots even regard themselves as Kalenjin ?

Now with the new constitution and Gorvernors office holding alot of sway in matrers counties any war will lead to the minority tribe getting affected  from resource wise , mobilization and organization, logistics etc

It just baffles me why you think a war will give you an advantage in matters politcs

The battle ground is different now in comparison to 2007.
If a war was to erupt now God forbid, all communities in former  Rift Valley will be affected but Kalenjin will be the most affected

[Kadudu]

Chunga sana. The "foreigners" will also reclaim Weston Hotel. 

Strange reasoning that hinges on desperation and ignorance.
Kalenjin dominate in 7 counties.
They are major players in 3 more  - Nakuru, Tranzoia and Narok.
They are some little force in Bungoma - and have insignificant numbers elsewhere.

Now why would Kalenjin fight. LAND LAND LAND. There is already serious population explosion and youth unemployment.

Kalenjin lay an historical claim to land from Tranzoia to Naviasha.

Any war provide them opportunity to kick out "foreigners" - and occupy the land.

The foreigners after being kicked will come back and  sell their land cheaply - if they ever comeback.

So there is incentive for those in Tranzoia and sorrounding counties to star war there - for those in Uasing Gishu and sorrounding - and for those in Nakuru and areas.

So beyond the politics - the foreigners owning land in RV is seen as another Mau - a frontier for the landless.

Even in places where land was sold genuinely like in Sondu or Nandi - Kalenjin will stick kick out foreigners on any pretext.

They are just waiting for opportunity. You give them the opportunity - and they do it.

[RV Pundit]

Yes some of us will suffer - the revenge attacks. I have stopped investing in Mavoko. If Uhuru light the fire - it will consume many people - because Kalenjin are waiting for an opportunity - I don't think they have accepted or welcomed any "foreigner" in their land. Don't invest in many parts of RV - unless you're risking.

Chunga sana. The "foreigners" will also reclaim Weston Hotel. 

[Njuri Ncheke]

If you check those figures are precise - I did a lot of research - most of them are accurate. Which one do you dispute.

So those are your figures where are the KNBS figures?

Pundit take a break, do you know what precise means? You are suffering from strong hold mentality which is very lethal.

[Nowayhaha]

Kalenjin dominate in 7 counties.
They are major players in 3 more  - Nakuru, Tranzoia and Narok.
They are some little force in Bungoma - and have insignificant numbers elsewhere.

Now why would Kalenjin fight. LAND LAND LAND. There is already serious population explosion and youth unemployment.

Kalenjin lay an historical claim to land from Tranzoia to Naviasha.

Any war provide them opportunity to kick out "foreigners" - and occupy the land.

The foreigners after being kicked will come back and  sell their land cheaply - if they ever comeback.

So there is incentive for those in Tranzoia and sorrounding counties to star war there - for those in Uasing Gishu and sorrounding - and for those in Nakuru and areas.

So beyond the politics - the foreigners owning land in RV is seen as another Mau - a frontier for the landless.

Even in places where land was sold genuinely like in Sondu or Nandi - Kalenjin will stick kick out foreigners on any pretext.

They are just waiting for opportunity. You give them the opportunity - and they do it.

Exactly my point when provinces as defined in the precious constituion mattered Kalenjins appeared a force to reckon and used the province as a the basis of ethnonationalism.
With the introduction of the new constitution, its very evident that Kalenjin are only a majority in the following counties 5 only
Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet,,Nandi, Bomet ans Kericho
They are a minority on Uasin Ngishu,Nakuru, Narok and Transnzoia
Insignificant numbers in kajiado , Samaburu  Turkana and Laikipia
Do pokots even regard themselves as Kalenjin ?

Now with the new constitution and Gorvernors office holding alot of sway in matrers counties any war will lead to the minority tribe getting affected  from resource wise , mobilization and organization, logistics etc

It just baffles me why you think a war will give you an advantage in matters politcs

The battle ground is different now in comparison to 2007.
If a war was to erupt now God forbid, all communities in former  Rift Valley will be affected but Kalenjin will be the most affected

RV, your mindset is so in the 90s and have refused adapt to the new dispenstation.
First what make you think population outburst and land issue has only affected Kalenjins.
Secondly what makes you think Kalenjins hold monopoly to violence.
Furrhermore as indicated earlier politcs are different now in comparison to  90s and 2007 when Maasais and Luhyas the other players were on the same poltical formation with Kalenjin

From the data you provided (still looking for the most current and correct ) , you are in the 30% in Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia thats a minority and can be equated to what you are calling "Foreigners"
A war always affects the minorities more than anyone else  , you seem not to see this , your analysis on Naivasha and TransNzoia is Misguided.

[RV Pundit]

I put in a lot of reasearch - and use this on MOASS - it was so accurate Patel accuses me of being part of the DEEP STATE

Pundit take a break, do you know what precise means? You are suffering from strong hold mentality which is very lethal.

[RV Pundit]

Don't personalize. I don't agree with majority of Kalenjin mindset. 
But i am being dissapasionate and telling you the truth like I have always done.
Kalenjin minority in Narok are already getting kicked - I and many predicted this would happen.
This is just the nature of the beast.
Maasai are in position where they are getting alarmed - so Narok just prepare for many wars and bloodsheed.
When I predict something - It's based on my knolwedge and anlysis  - it's not what I think.
If I was thinking like that - I wouldn't have married a GEMA woman and got kids with.

Let hope for the best - but definitely Uhuru-Ruto fallout is VERY BAD NEWS.
Kalenjin are almost fanatically backing Ruto -
If they miss PORK - they will not miss "land grievances" after "rigging allegation"
They will not take betrayal by GEMA lightly.

That I know because I know their thinking.

It's like predicting how Luos will react.

The problem I see with our people now is youth unemployment, their inability to do usual urban migration like western kenya ( I read some statistics that had 40% of Bungoma men out of county). In 1992 - maybe you needed to import warriors - now - everywhere in RV - kalenjin have so many idle youths - you can eaisly get a million fighting force.

Now add that youth unemployment to Ruto politics- and you wake up the land grievance monster of Jomo Kenyatta - and you have a civil war in your hand.

Uhuru has to understand this very very clearly - and they need to know if they go man to man with Ruto - it will be tragic. A lot of people will die. Millions more will suffer.

This is MAD - both sides will lose heavily - there will  be no winner.

RV, your mindset is so in the 90s and have refused adapt to the new dispenstation.
First what make you think population outburst and land issue has only affected Kalenjins.
Secondly what makes you think Kalenjins hold monopoly to violence.
Furrhermore as indicated earlier politcs are different now in comparison to  90s and 2007 when Maasais and Luhyas the other players were on the same poltical formation with Kalenjin

From the data you provided (still looking for the most current and correct ) , you are in the 30% in Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia thats a minority and can be equated to what you are calling "Foreigners"
A war always affects the minorities more than anyone else  , you seem not to see this , your analysis on Naivasha and TransNzoia is Misguided.

[KenyanPlato]

Kalenjins even if ruto becomes presiddnt have deep societal issues that no one but themselves can address. They think that the days of moi absolute power will return. They won't and the more they make rv unattractive from investors the more they will suffer. In 30 years kalenjins will be back to storage era like those Marsabit terrorists. Those marsabit terrorists target any non Muslim teaching there and then complain that they have no teachers. I know a lot of highly skilled guys who used to work there but have left. I see kalenjins suffering the same fate. May be pokots will finally decide to drive you out of kenya

[RV Pundit]

Kalenjins even if ruto becomes presiddnt have deep societal issues that no one but themselves can address. They think that the days of moi absolute power will return. They won't and the more they make rv unattractive from investors the more they will suffer. In 30 years kalenjins will be back to storage era like those Marsabit terrorists. Those marsabit terrorists target any non Muslim teaching there and then complain that they have no teachers. I know a lot of highly skilled guys who used to work there but have left. I see kalenjins suffering the same fate. May be pokots will finally decide to drive you out of kenya

That you know is nonsense. THIS IS LEADERSHIP FAILURE. FAILURE TO MANAGE POLITICS. Kalenjin are very progressive, good farmers, investing in education n name it.The problem is uhuru  like it was Kibaki in 2007.You need to understand Kenyans and their issues..and manage it.You reopened old wounds and engage in ego fight,  provoke a civil war like most of Africa then blame others.The problem is leadership.Uhuru n Ruto should now let Raila run the Kenya shop before they set us back to mayhem .The more they fight the more they set the country ablaze...Uhuru should have known he was signing a pact with a devil and he should see it through..then retire to Gatundu or at least pretend like cares.Otherwise unless Raila wins...it may be an epic fight..and if our army split...we are kaput.The police cannot control million angry people. MOST COUNTRIES THAT WENT SOUTH STARTED FROM LEADERSHIP WRANGLE FUELED BY GIGANTIC EGOS and slowly sucked everyone in.