That is more likely to happen. System candidate is likely to be Matiangi backed by GEMA DPORK. This will only fly in Gusii. Elsewhere it will be a major flop. So Matingi will end up with 10% maximum. Raila is likely to try to steady ODM ship and cut a deal - with his own GEMA guy - another flop.
Yes we will likely end up with 10 candidates..and a 2nd round is very likely. Most of jokers will run back to be governors - they know PORK sio Mchezo. Governors with term limit are ones who need to decide - run for Senate or run for PORK
Uhuru will determine how RV will react. I get sense the patience there is running thin.
Raira will be back to NDP 2022 as system will likely back matiangi kagwe/Kenneth. Murathe is only one backing baba but for selfish gains as we saw guy stealing left right and center and singing baba songs.
Ruto will run them hard and win first round and likely will go second round. That's where Ruto has to play smart as they will likely gang up against him, here kalenjin have to get their act together and stop being jittery or nervy to cause any loss of votes.