Yeah ruto can win that way but with a hostile state and big chunk of population he won't easily score. Uhuru know it will be fatal to let ruto win. The only way to power for ruto is by a coup. Democracy he will be cheated.
The premise of you argument is wrong , as you probably witnessed in 2002 and 2013 a hostile state does change once it realizes change is coming. By end 2002 Sally Kosgei had told her team to prepare for transition of power . The powers that be in Cabinet know they will not be part of the next Government , you have Matiangi and Kibichos gunning for politics in 2022 elections .Joseph Kinyua is unlike before delagating most of his duties to Nzioka Waita and Njee Muturi .
A big chuck of population actually supports him . If he didnt have that support ODM wouldnt be throwing mud at him . ask your self why is ODM fascinated with Ruto and not Kalonzo or Mudavadi or Wetangula or Peter Kenneth ?
Ruto grassroots support is superficial. Uhuru is the most moderate president..second to kibaki. Ruto can't take on uhuru because uhuru has refused to engage him. Uhuru has totally subdued ruto. Ruto needs uhuru to fight him for relevance. It is like how kalonzo is trying to engage raila but raila is just serving him cold contempt. Bottomline ruto has to create an euphoria against uhuru..it won't happen. Uhuru cabinet too has adopted a strategy of ignoring Tangatanga. They have decided not respond to them or engage them. So ruto is confused he is trying to go directly to Kikuyus peasants but they do not trust him fully so all they do is eat his money and not do much for him. Ruto is done. The other thing Ruto is unacceptable to the west and may even other EA leaders.
He has no leverage other than his people deciding to kill Kikuyus. However, Kalenjin community may decide that it worthy it to take on Kikuyus.
THE STATE is UNITED TO STOP RUTO. That is all you need to know.
All Uhuru now needs is to start serious out reach in Kalenjin Land. he should appoint, develop and come up with plans that directly target the locals. Once the locals have been appeased ruto won't have leverage. There is also what seems to be mistrust of ruto by young upcoming political elites in RV. They do not want to be out of power again. They did not win because of him they won despite him. Ruto is spending too much of his political capital chasing Central strategy that is an illusion. Raila lost 2013 by betting on Central voters ..Kibaki double crossed him and took the sails out of his candidacy.. Right now Raila is waiting for Uhuru to be become a serious lame-duck and he will disengage with him. You can tell that Raila is keeping his cards close to his chest. He sending everyone on a wild goose chase