Lack Of Leadership in ODM

[Nowayhaha]

• Tweet

https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/politics/sibling-rivalry-odm-1914804

Unbeknown to many, Mr Mohamed had threatened to resign from his position in the party, where he is also the director of elections, to protest against “mistreatment” by some ODM members.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/nairobi/2020-08-08-nairobi-county-assemblys-power-wars-split-railas-odm/

The power wars in the troubled Nairobi City County are now threatening to split former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s ODM party.

The fresh implosion in the Orange party has ODM chairman John Mbadi on one hand and Nairobi County party chairman George Aladwa who is also the Makadara MP on the other hand.

[RV Pundit]

They are well on their way to become NDP - Luo party. The power struggle seem confined there. Coast - mijikenda - look likely to leave Joho - as an empty ODM shell in Mombasa. The formulae was the last straw that broke the camel back. The Oparanya-wamalwa crew maybe ensared by Harambee house for their own projects as always - MaDVD/Wetangula - will make it very hard to sell ODM in Luhyaland.

[Nowayhaha]

They are well on their way to become NDP - Luo party. The power struggle seem confined there. Coast - mijikenda - look likely to leave Joho - as an empty ODM shell in Mombasa. The formulae was the last straw that broke the camel back. The Oparanya-wamalwa crew maybe ensared by Harambee house for their own projects as always - MaDVD/Wetangula - will make it very hard to sell ODM in Luhyaland.

Joho holds no sway on the mijikendas (read Giriama and Digo)  , Taita , Arabs and Pokomo .
To his credit he managed to read Mombasa Politics very well where Luos form around 30 % electorate of Momabasa and Swahilis around 20% now add the changamwe Kambas and you have a winning formula in Mombasa - One of the reason you have Luo MCAs and at one time had a Luo MP .
The number of Kisumu ndogos iin Mombasa is unaccountable .Do you know whenever they are travelling upcountry the new sheng in Mombasa is " tunaenda  Bondo"  Thats how much influence Luo Nyanza has in Mombasa -

Why Jubilee perfomed dismally in 2013 and 2017 elections in Coast is because of Uhuru factor - In Taita Taveta - because of Kenyattas family owning a vast majority of land there . Uhuru did well in Tana River and Lamu . In kwale there was a major improvement in 2017 elections. In Kilifi they hate Uhuru and by extension Mt Kenyans with passion due the land factor and hotels built at the shore lines which they believe are theirs
 
Now with Uhuru out of the picture expect Ruto defeating Raila come 2022 . 

[Njuri Ncheke]

Am wondering would Luos/ODM support a uhuru stooge for pork like matiangi?

[RV Pundit]

Precisely. Joho has symbiotic relationship with ODM. Mombasa like Nairobi Luo-luhyas unite - and are quite powerful. The kambas more often than not - do not know how to project their numbers.

But for Joho - after inhereting Kisauni - the Mijikenda took him like their own.

There is complication though - Kwale and Kilifi - want to chart their own course - with two retiring governors look to be at the national negotiating table

And ODM has treated them rather shabbily.

ODM like Raila are on their way back to 1997 - 10-15% of the total votes - unless Raila get another BBI wave.

Joho holds no sway on the mijikendas (read Giriama and Digo)  , Taita , Arabs and Pokomo .
To his credit he managed to read Mombasa Politics very well where Luos form around 30 % electorate of Momabasa and Swahilis around 20% now add the changamwe Kambas and you have a winning formula in Mombasa - One of the reason you have Luo MCAs and at one time had a Luo MP .
The number of Kisumu ndogos iin Mombasa is unaccountable .Do you know whenever they are travelling upcountry the new sheng in Mombasa is " tunaenda  Bondo"  Thats how much influence Luo Nyanza has in Mombasa -

Why Jubilee perfomed dismally in 2013 and 2017 elections in Coast is because of Uhuru factor - In Taita Taveta - because of Kenyattas family owning a vast majority of land there . Uhuru did well in Tana River and Lamu . In kwale there was a major improvement in 2017 elections. In Kilifi they hate Uhuru and by extension Mt Kenyans with passion due the land factor and hotels built at the shore lines which they believe are theirs
 
Now with Uhuru out of the picture expect Ruto defeating Raila come 2022 . 

[RV Pundit]

Luos are under odinga spell. Whatever Raila can support - they will support.

Am wondering would Luos/ODM support a uhuru stooge for pork like matiangi?

[Njuri Ncheke]

Luos are under odinga spell. Whatever Raila can support - they will support.

Am wondering would Luos/ODM support a uhuru stooge for pork like matiangi?

Well they have lost coast and NEP. That saves Ruto alot of hustles and resources there. 2022 will be like 2002 state machinery and stooge vs the masses. At this rate Ruto can win 1st round kura easily. With mlima, Rv, Nep, coast and part of Western only huduma number will give the stooge a fighting chance but we will never allow that.