Mt kenya plotting what?

[RV Pundit]

Outgoing Mandera governor dumped Ruto so he can eat in peace and try get something from BBI like Johos and Oparanyas.

When you support Uhuru who is going to retire; then you are saying nothing. We are all supporting Wanjohi to retire in peace.

Let them join ODM and we will know they have indeed defected

As long as we have Duale - we have the pastoral vote.

Let test your theory about ground - Mandera governor, senator, women rep, MPs, MCAs - dumped Ruto few weeks ago. There was a photo op. Doe Ruto have the Mandera people- despite the mass defections- or does that magic only work in GEMA?

[Nefertiti]

Let test your theory about ground - Mandera governor, senator, women rep, MPs, MCAs - dumped Ruto few weeks ago. There was a photo op. Doe Ruto have the Mandera people- despite the mass defections- or does that magic only work in GEMA?

Just a question Roby...how many elected poticians do you think will make it back ?a percentage will do

30% - what's your point?

[Nefertiti]

ANC and Ford K are being destabilized cause Ruto seem onto Luhya plan B. Obviously Raila would be a fool to let go of Western. He has big lead with 2 decades of support 2007-17. Last election was 95% vs Uhuruto. He is keen to install Oparanya and Eugene to checkmate Ruto. GEMA he already stole the Queen, stallions, castles and most pawns - Waigurus and Kiraitus. Without "ground" spin - which crash head-on against kingpins, influencers, etc building blocks of your MOAS pseudoscience- you have no argument. I mean Uhurutopia was brazen spin which imploded right before our eyes. Then parliament numbers - you only conceded once it was impossible to deny the apparent obvious.

Denial is not strategy. So Waruguru wants to go home? What stop the mass defectors in Kirinyaga or Laikipia or Mandera from following "ground"? If a by-election is called in GEMA - you will promptly declare tactical retreat- as your boy kunja mkia.

Why is Corona coalition attacking Ford-K if not for Ruto support? Of all 10 plus elected Mps - only two don't support Ruto. Ford-K crew want to merge with Ruto so they can win Tranzoia governorship and Weta is going for Bungoma governor.

Jubilee mps and senators are just buying time - wait till Uhuru becomes lame-duck.

No mps or leader can risk the ground. In any election year.

Uhuru is confirmed going home. Plan for post-Uhuru life my friend.  Hii sijui Executive PM. Sijui Uhuru stooge.

Ruto GEMA following or "ground" is as real as his parliament or senate numbers. Just like Bukusu where you claim he has following yet noone serious follow him. Same as Pwani, etc.. Anyway all this theories will soon be exposed - we saw parliament and Jubilee  - spin works until it doesn't.

[RV Pundit]

Waiguru and many of those guys have zero ground game. The rest who support Uhuru are neither here or there. Uhuru is going home. We only have one candidate and maybe 2 if you add maDVD. The rest are waiting for tosha from Uhuru - and those are nearly 10 people led by Raila.

Ruto enjoy the support of Jubilee membership - the rest are details.

Uhuru has exactly one year  - before he becomes officially lameduck. Campaigns are going to begin officialy around this time next year.

ANC and Ford K are being destabilized cause Ruto seem onto Luhya plan B. Obviously Raila would be a fool to let go of Western. He has big lead with 2 decades of support 2007-17. Last election was 95% vs Uhuruto. He is keen to install Oparanya and Eugene to checkmate Ruto. GEMA he already stole the Queen, stallions, castles and most pawns - Waigurus and Kiraitus. Without "ground" spin - which crash head-on against kingpins, influencers, etc building blocks of your MOAS pseudoscience- you have no argument. I mean Uhurutopia was brazen spin which imploded right before our eyes. Then parliament numbers - you only conceded once it was impossible to deny the apparent obvious.

Denial is not strategy. So Waruguru wants to go home? What stop the mass defectors in Kirinyaga or Laikipia or Mandera from following "ground"? If a by-election is called in GEMA - you will promptly declare tactical retreat- as your boy kunja mkia.

Why is Corona coalition attacking Ford-K if not for Ruto support? Of all 10 plus elected Mps - only two don't support Ruto. Ford-K crew want to merge with Ruto so they can win Tranzoia governorship and Weta is going for Bungoma governor.

Jubilee mps and senators are just buying time - wait till Uhuru becomes lame-duck.

No mps or leader can risk the ground. In any election year.

Uhuru is confirmed going home. Plan for post-Uhuru life my friend.  Hii sijui Executive PM. Sijui Uhuru stooge.

Ruto GEMA following or "ground" is as real as his parliament or senate numbers. Just like Bukusu where you claim he has following yet noone serious follow him. Same as Pwani, etc.. Anyway all this theories will soon be exposed - we saw parliament and Jubilee  - spin works until it doesn't.

[patel]

Let us wait for Gatundu south by election. This will be the best indicator of 'Takataka' ground game. Hustler non sense is pure garbage built on criminal enterprise. Uhuru has vanquished these guys.

[Pajero]

Pundit,you are still talking of Ruto having support in jubilee yet he has zero control over the party,honestly you are living in denial.

[RV Pundit]

ODM-K Kalonzo-Maanzo took the certificate but did he take the party. No. Raila had the party while Kalonzo had the certificate. Later on Ruto took on ODM - Raila had the party - but Ruto had nearly half of ODM - he took off with it. Tuju-Murathe are not exactly popular anywhere. Uhuru is going home. Jubilee is intact. Wait until mid next year then you'll see who will listen to Uhuru leave alone Murathe or Tuju. By then they cannot do nothing. You cannot expel anybody or punish anybody or whatever. He cannot even appoint anybody "serious" because people will be resigning gov positions to go into politics...officially they need to resign six months to election..but technically because most will resign by dec 31st.

Meanwhile instead of going out there to campaign - you're waiting for Uhuru to finish corona - spending his time and money to back Raila. or anyone else waiting for Uhuru to do the heavy lifting for themselves. Why would Uhuru do that?

It's most inane political strategy I have even seen.

Meanwhile by happenstance - Ruto has been freed to begin his campaign - 2yrs before the election. He is doing the hardwork now - which will pay off late. While Raila will be busy as always cobbling the remnants into some coalition in late 2022.

Pundit,you are still talking of Ruto having support in jubilee yet he has zero control over the party,honestly you are living in denial.

[Pajero]

You need to check into a mental facility

[Nefertiti]

Pundit,you are still talking of Ruto having support in jubilee yet he has zero control over the party,honestly you are living in denial.

Pundit has abandoned his own science. He built a body of knowledge over a decade - MOAS - perfected by tribal numbers. In a given election- he could tell who would win by estimating their following by

1) kingpins - Raila, Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mdvd, etc. top tier politicians
2) influencers - Duale, Oparanya, Nanok, Kiraitu, Joho and such small tribe chiefs
3) MPs - these and MCAs supposedly followed the wind cause all politics is local. So if the region is in ODM, then all incumbent and aspiring MPs would flock to the kingpin's or influencer's party. But today because the bulk of kingpins and influencers starting with PORK are with Raila - these universal laws of politics must be abandoned and a fresh science invented. Now mass defections from Ruto to Raila do not indicate anything because the people are with Ruto. Warugurus, Kimunyas and Kanini Kegas have lost their minds - only Kuria, Nyoro and Wahome are guided by the ground.

Hahaha this is akin to Isaac Newton telling us there is no gravity after all the successful experiments and proofs

[RV Pundit]

I haven't abandoned any of that. My model is well refined. Just wait and see. Your understanding of kenya tribal politics is SIMPLISTIC.

If for example I followed your simplistic model in 2013 -in RV - I would have assigned Raila more than 2% because he had many mps, ministers and name it in Kalenjinland.

In 2017 - I would have assigned Isaac Ruto more than 11% I assigned for his NASA escapadeds.

If my model was simplistic - it won't have captured the 70% of mcas, mps and governors who get floored.

Which is why I don't do MOAS 2yrs to election. It has to be done a few months to election.

This is not the first time I am doing MOAS when my candidate is not clear favourite. I did it in 2010 constitution - predicting 33% versus 67% - it ended up 31% versus 68% - while everyone else was predicting 15-20% to 80%.

Pundit has abandoned his own science. He built a body of knowledge over a decade - MOAS - perfected by tribal numbers. In a given election- he could tell who would win by estimating their following by

1) kingpins - Raila, Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mdvd, etc. top tier politicians
2) influencers - Duale, Oparanya, Nanok, Kiraitu, Joho and such small tribe chiefs
3) MPs - these and MCAs supposedly followed the wind cause all politics is local. So if the region is in ODM, then all incumbent and aspiring MPs would flock to the kingpin's or influencer's party. But today because the bulk of kingpins and influencers starting with PORK are with Raila - these universal laws of politics must be abandoned and a fresh science invented. Now mass defections from Ruto to Raila do not indicate anything because the people are with Ruto. Warugurus, Kimunyas and Kanini Kegas have lost their minds - only Kuria, Nyoro and Wahome are guided by the ground.

Hahaha this is akin to Isaac Newton telling us there is no gravity after all the successful experiments and proofs

[Nefertiti]

Well your model fail to consider machinery - which is weighty factor akin to turnout. If it go to the wire - machinery would bail out Raila their favorite boy. Of course you have new story about Raila being played- which is pure conjecture and hope.

Kibra is a good example of you abandoning MOAS when they disfavored your man - and failing to factor machinery which can break any close tie.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

 

Slow down with the vitriol guys. Pundit is wrong, Gema base will not support the hustler to become PORK nor will Uhuru rig the elections to hand power to Raila. Both are fantasies. However banks on Gema noblesse oblige is a fool. At this rate Ruto will tosha Raila for 1 term because of Gema shenanigans.

Current bitter enemies will be future bosom buddies.

Mark my words.

[Nefertiti]

By the way Pundit how do you measure "ground" tk determine who has it? Njuri and Nowayhaha apply gut feeling - they like Ruto so he must be leading cause everyone thinks like them. Garliv SC claims to be in the know about secret polls and intelligence reports - his buddy NIS director Kameru whisper to him over drinks.

What wand does Pundit use to say Ruto has the "ground" in Mt Kenya, Mandera, etc?

[RV Pundit]

I cannot model rigging. My model predict free and fair election.kibera was faaaaaaaaar from being one - it was complete chaos inspired by ODM that disenfranchised many people.

Well your model fail to consider machinery - which is weighty factor akin to turnout. If it go to the wire - machinery would bail out Raila their favorite boy. Of course you have new story about Raila being played- which is pure conjecture and hope.

Kibra is a good example of you abandoning MOAS when they disfavored your man - and failing to factor machinery which can break any close tie.

[RV Pundit]

I normally average opinion polls - and refine them to take care of all the other factors. Opinion polls do a good job in many places where tribes are uniform. They struggle in multi-ethnic areas and their sampling frame for political correctness never factor TRIBE. In places like RV which I know - I can do that with my eyes closed. If opinion polls split Kenya intro tribes...they will be as good as MOAS. The hard part would then be figuring out how many Luos are say in Nairobi. Otherwise a Luo in Nyanza or Mombasa or Kacheliba will vote one way.

By the way Pundit how do you measure "ground" tk determine who has it? Njuri and Nowayhaha apply gut feeling - they like Ruto so he must be leading cause everyone thinks like them. Garliv SC claims to be in the know about secret polls and intelligence reports - his buddy NIS director Kameru whisper to him over drinks.

What wand does Pundit use to say Ruto has the "ground" in Mt Kenya, Mandera, etc?

[RV Pundit]

And before you accuse me of changing my views....this was my reply to you in July 2017 - plus many others where I explained my MOAS thining

Re: Pundito, this Poll dubbed your MOAS
« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2017, 11:36:19 AM »
QuoteModifyRemoveSplit Topic
You worry about polls.I have my own MOAS - I temper pollsters - where they say 37% in Machakos - I'd take 15% or something like that - based on historical voting trends. I do watch polls for direction - so where I had Machakos & Kitui at 10-15% (which you caused a lot of ruckus) - opinion polls are showing it's even bad for NASA --so maybe I'll do 15-20%. Certainly Kalonzo is panicked - he has spend the last week mostly in Ukambani. Things are thick for NASA - In Kalenjin where I had NASA 10-15% - I am seeing all that evaporating. The tribal bond is strong in kenya.

[Nefertiti]

Let us wait for Gatundu south by election. This will be the best indicator of 'Takataka' ground game. Hustler non sense is pure garbage built on criminal enterprise. Uhuru has vanquished these guys.

Is there a by-election in Gatundu South?

[Nefertiti]

You need to check into a mental facility

haha nobody sees Pundit's "obvious" logic

[Nefertiti]

But you modeled Ruto brazen bribery - laying red carpet for slum dwellers. If you eliminate bribery and intimidation - pure MOAS had Imran at home-run. Instead you claimed Luos would vote Owallo cause he is Luo

I cannot model rigging. My model predict free and fair election.kibera was faaaaaaaaar from being one - it was complete chaos inspired by ODM that disenfranchised many people.

Well your model fail to consider machinery - which is weighty factor akin to turnout. If it go to the wire - machinery would bail out Raila their favorite boy. Of course you have new story about Raila being played- which is pure conjecture and hope.

Kibra is a good example of you abandoning MOAS when they disfavored your man - and failing to factor machinery which can break any close tie.

[Nefertiti]

I mean when you say Mt Kenya or Mandera are with Ruto TODAY - how do you know that?

I normally average opinion polls - and refine them to take care of all the other factors. Opinion polls do a good job in many places where tribes are uniform. They struggle in multi-ethnic areas and their sampling frame for political correctness never factor TRIBE. In places like RV which I know - I can do that with my eyes closed. If opinion polls split Kenya intro tribes...they will be as good as MOAS. The hard part would then be figuring out how many Luos are say in Nairobi. Otherwise a Luo in Nyanza or Mombasa or Kacheliba will vote one way.

By the way Pundit how do you measure "ground" tk determine who has it? Njuri and Nowayhaha apply gut feeling - they like Ruto so he must be leading cause everyone thinks like them. Garliv SC claims to be in the know about secret polls and intelligence reports - his buddy NIS director Kameru whisper to him over drinks.

What wand does Pundit use to say Ruto has the "ground" in Mt Kenya, Mandera, etc?