This is likely to be like Moi succession. Ruto-Gideon-Uhuur started a whistle campaign on Saitoti-Biwott wamejipanga group and before we know Moi fished a drunkard Youngman Uhuru as PORK candidate leaving Saitoti, Kalonzo, MaDVD, Ngala, Raila and name it. Ruto was chief engineer using Gideon Moi to block likes of Biwott and Saitoti from statehouse - and they were doing their BBI thing inviting Raila for Co-operation and Saitoti was the stumbling block being the heir apparent - while all along the plan was for Uhuru to go for PORK and Gideon to be DPORK.
Now it appears Ruto is now the victim of the whistle-rumour-NSIS-campaign led by many embittered GEMA elite who lost in 2017 - with likes of Mbugua acting as statehouse gatekeeper - and seem they have succeeded in splitting Uhuru-Ruto.
Raila is very much in the same position in 2002 - he is being entertained but he is not part of the grand plans. Raila however much he tries will always be seen as one dangerous man.
Now because Uhuru and his planners are so naive and so 'powerful' they will come to an hairbrained candidates or arrangement that will lead into NARC revolution...this time most likely against dynastic (sons and daughters of big kahunas)
Ruto could as well end up a Saitoti - heir apparent turned chicken - if his hustler revolution doesn't catch and sustain momentum.
It very likely Raila will be the last out of Jubilee - and will have no option than Say Ruto TOSHA. He will be played until the last minute - when he will be offered the PM position. For now, he thinks he is going to be PORK, and someone else PM.
Ruto - Moi comparison misses the fact that senile Kenyatta was not behind the shenanigans as is now clear with rabid Uhuru. At the time of making the braggadocio 'hii mambo ni kujipanga' jest, Ruto seemed also not to have appreciated this fact. Now that he is 'msituni' where he thought Raila was and Raila amejipanga, he has no doubts that he ain't Moi.
There is no Gema elite with a dying economy. Even poster boy Mwangi has had to withhold dividends despite cries from like of Mbaru and the mzungu shareholders. Nyamakima dead! Rents for landlords- uncertain!
Murathe is shallow elite who taught Uhuru to drink Glenfidich.
This is a long drawn unnecessary battle with no template and we will all suffer as we struggle not to wink with corona.
