Pundit by the time Wanjohi is done with your boy he wil

[Nefertiti]

Pundit if Ruto ships to a new party - Tangatanga would crumble. Half the MPs in Mt Kenya would not go with him. Forget other Western and such places. Uhuru has too many levers to mess him and help Raila.

[RV Pundit]

What is the war about. The war is about Uhuru using Raila to torpedo 50-50 with Ruto and to rule unilaterally - without party - without basically anybody accountability. I think Ruto long conceded that - he is looking at 10yrs - and doesn't mind losing 5yrs.

If you think Uhuruto or Jubilee is intact you are the delusional one. Ruto needs a new party - and attempt to herd massive Jubilee coalition there - very tough luck. Uhuru does not need all the big conspiracies and rungus to manage Ruto. The war is real.

[RV Pundit]

What would make half the mps go with Ruto? And half to remain with Raila? The thing is GEMA will not board Raila - they will board Uhuru or another GEMA if there was case to be made. But Uhuru is not going to manage to remove term limits.

Ruto right now can move with 90% of GEMA - but that is too early in the game. You cannot move because of Murathe or Tuju.

Ruto will only move when difference with Uhuru boils over publicly....not through proxies and shadowy characters....Uhuru has to come and say in black and white...he is joining ODM

Pundit if Ruto ships to a new party - Tangatanga would crumble. Half the MPs in Mt Kenya would not go with him. Forget other Western and such places. Uhuru has too many levers to mess him and help Raila.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Robina kweli you are difficult. Am. On record saying that Uhunye can muster 20-25% Max for rao, and without uhunye support rao will max at usual 2% uhuru has to break the central bank of kenya to buy entire mt. Kenya, but without that and Ceteris paribus, this will be another of those usual rao circus and vitendawili

[KenyanPlato]

Robina kweli you are difficult. Am. On record saying that Uhunye can muster 20-25% Max for rao, and without uhunye support rao will max at usual 2% uhuru has to break the central bank of kenya to buy entire mt. Kenya, but without that and Ceteris paribus, this will be another of those usual rao circus and vitendawili

If Raila keeps original Nasa support he just needs 12% of central vote and he will win clearly with no rigging needed

[RV Pundit]

Robina is as obtuse as Raila. First, they lied to him about BBI - and when Raila started to realizes it and put - June 2020 deadline for the constitution to be changed (that changed to Sept 2020) - and now with COVID - unknown future data - I see Uhuru through Murathe have started throwing wild oats to Raila - about Jubilee, ODM and KANU merging.

Uhuru is playing high-level politics....and after stashing his bank account...he will leave many high and dry...as he retires to build himself Northland city...while smoking weed.

Uhuru main motivation is to grow his own personal pie. The rest about legacy are secondary. Obviously he is not interested in messy wars that could get him back in ICC.

Robina kweli you are difficult. Am. On record saying that Uhunye can muster 20-25% Max for rao, and without uhunye support rao will max at usual 2% uhuru has to break the central bank of kenya to buy entire mt. Kenya, but without that and Ceteris paribus, this will be another of those usual rao circus and vitendawili

[KenyanPlato]

What Uhuru needs is to offer Kikuyu another candidate or find a way to deny ruto all Kalenjin votes and Somali votes .. most pro ruto fellas will never vote for Raila

[RV Pundit]

I think anybody who think GEMA - including Uhuru - want Raila to win - is smoking something very novel like the CORONA virus. Raila is too mercurial and too dangerous for all the elites. They simply cannot trust him or his Luo folks.

Ruto motivation is no 1) to steal and become as rich as MOi and kenyatta and 2) maybe to leave a legacy.

Raila main motivation is revenge...to right historical wrongs. He has no major interest to make money like Uhuru or Ruto or the rest.

If Raila keeps original Nasa support he just needs 12% of central vote and he will win clearly with no rigging needed

[Njuri Ncheke]

Robina is this the guy you counting on?
https://www.pulselive.co.ke/news/president-uhuru-kenyattas-gift-to-uk-patients-and-medics-causes-uproar-in-kenya/73j1qt4?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=pulse%20live%20kenya&utm_content=stories

[KenyanPlato]

I think anybody who think GEMA - including Uhuru - want Raila to win - is smoking something very novel like the CORONA virus. Raila is too mercurial and too dangerous for all the elites. They simply cannot trust him or his Luo folks.

If Raila keeps original Nasa support he just needs 12% of central vote and he will win clearly with no rigging needed

I believe that. Raila is too unfocused and it makes him dangerous for a country like Kenya. He suffers from ADHD. Guys is all over the place like a hyper kid

[RV Pundit]

If Uhuru and his system endorse Raila - I think we all should vote for him. That would be EPIC! Ruto should just re-join ODM and sit back. Some things are just impossible.

I believe that. Raila is too unfocused and it makes him dangerous for a country like Kenya. He suffers from ADHD. Guys is all over the place like a hyper kid

[Njuri Ncheke]

What Uhuru needs is to offer Kikuyu another candidate or find a way to deny ruto all Kalenjin votes and Somali votes .. most pro ruto fellas will never vote for Raila

Now this i agree would be decisive, thats why they are trying to bring in Gideon to divide kalenjin votes, they know very well how the situation is, you cant beat ruto without diving kalenjin votes, thats why the needa to change katiba maybe Gideon for pork raira prime Minister i guess.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Raila is the only one who can just call for mass action and the economy grinds to a halt. Uhuru does not need to call for any mass action just ask Kibicho and Kameru to prep for the warriors. Ruto cannot successfully hold GoK at ransom without landing back into ICC fangs. His warriors have only one leverage - genocide. Now of course any threats or actual PEV on Kiluyu is political suicide - cause that’s the only card he has on Raila.

Who loses what? The status quo benefits Ruto - Raila and Uhuru want to change katiba, kill Jubilee, rig Ruto out  - ergo Ruto has the most to lose. So long as Raila has Uhuru Ruto remains disadvantaged. Body blows with hands tied in the back. The person with no other chance is Raila - who thus has the least to lose.

Ruto has the wind behind him as Njuri and Pundit have stated. Raila has tarnished his image beyond repair, Uhuru is a lame duck. Ruto is the man to beat, elites are working overtime to get him but he is a smart chap and he should endure a few humiliations. The big prize is his for the taking. I hate the dynasty more than Ruto, my ideal is to fagia wote but realistically he is the only that can stop Uhuru. God forbid he comes back the dog eaters will take over this country tukiwa macho.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Robina kweli you are difficult. Am. On record saying that Uhunye can muster 20-25% Max for rao, and without uhunye support rao will max at usual 2% uhuru has to break the central bank of kenya to buy entire mt. Kenya, but without that and Ceteris paribus, this will be another of those usual rao circus and vitendawili

If Raila keeps original Nasa support he just needs 12% of central vote and he will win clearly with no rigging needed

Baba won without that 12% in the first election of 2017.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Pundit if Ruto ships to a new party - Tangatanga would crumble. Half the MPs in Mt Kenya would not go with him. Forget other Western and such places. Uhuru has too many levers to mess him and help Raila.

Hustler is a proven running mate.  Great at bringing the Kalenjin on board.  But we are yet to see if he can convince other big tribes to line up behind him.  Raila is an old hand at that.  And yeah, his party homelessness coupled with covid-19 is going to hurt.  Because covid-19 is forcing boardroom intrigues to play a bigger role than reaching out to mwananchi.

[RV Pundit]

Raila has won through the non-gema route but it really didn't count - 1) the margin of victory was not rig-proof and 2) you have to force Gema to see the sense of transferring power. Ruto understood that in 2017. Therefore I think Ruto will probably deliver it - otherwise, Raila 5th or 6th run (if you could the re-run) will be more of the same.

So just has to do all he can to avoid losing GEMA...and he has PORK. Raila has to do the near-impossible of winning GEMA over.

Hustler is a proven running mate.  Great at bringing the Kalenjin on board.  But we are yet to see if he can convince other big tribes to line up behind him.  Raila is an old hand at that.  And yeah, his party homelessness coupled with covid-19 is going to hurt.  Because covid-19 is forcing boardroom intrigues to play a bigger role than reaching out to mwananchi.

[gout]

The county governments are doing well building the rural roads from basic grading now means with a motor bike, proboxes or a government 4WD you can easily get to the farthest corner. You will find the legendary probox beasts loading muguka in far end interiors at dawn. The miraa harvesters earn 1k before dawn - it iis making it impossible to keep boys in school with these easy money.

Jubilee was doing well with the roads - there are new sparkling roads in Embu and Tharaka. Siakago-Kiritiri is perfect.

Muguka grew well around Siakago. Siakago was high up so the elevation favored them. it also grew in Upper mbeere Gachoka. The guy in Gachoka were well up and Siakago too due to school and availability of water were well to do. Eastlands was full of Mbeere guys who had come there as colonial casual workers. My girlfriend was in Siakago Girls. She lived in Jericho. I went to her house and found her mum and Mukurino reading the bible. That is the last time I saw the girl as I was to relocate out of Kenya a few years later.

It appears you are very conversant with that area. I just know the area from just transiting. The tarmack road was built by Kibaki from ena to kanyuambora siakago ishiara cutting through tharaka and ending at meru town has also transformed that area very much you would be shocked if you came back. Kibaki uplifted all neglected GEMA area tharaka tigania/igembe mbeere soo much, the infrastructure was laid during his reign(we need tribute thread for Kibaki) Wanjohi has done nothing Kibaki legacy is super strong he is almost a deity  were it not him the areas would still be remote, Moi the chief goat herder had forgotten they exist.

[Nefertiti]

Your logic is rich: Ruto worked hard on GEMA - thru mlolongo, mchangos and endless tours. But he has no solid grasp cause he is non-GEMA with a horror history of PEV. Being kicked out of Jubilee is as bad as BBI succeeding - because there is no "we are together with Uhuru" in a new URP. Without the Jubilee coalition he is basically back to URP - 20% - his real worth. Just as Raila ODM without the NASA coalition. Ruto presently hides behind Jubilee behemoth to create unbeatable facade. Very easy for Uhuru to scuttle that facade by choke-holding the party. This is live right now.

Ruto starts from a very bad place. Raila has used BBI to rally the majority of non-GEMA - which makes GEMA a must-win for Ruto. So these Jubilee "shadow-boxing" - is the ball is bouncing back n forth firmly in his danger zone. He has shed support in Mt Kenya - all Waigurus governors, senators and other Mt Kenya crème. Kiraitus, Kang'atas, Ephraims and Kagwes actually represent their folks - they are not suicidal or delusional. The Imenti will not leave Kiraitu and Munya for Ruto and Linturi - nor Tharaka leave Muthomi Njuki for Ruto and Kareke Mbiuki. So it obvious just spin that GEMA will not leave Ruto - he only has them through Jubilee aka Uhuruto - which is going up in smoke as we watch.

I see no difference between Ruto today and Raila 2009-2017 - enemy of the state with a slim chance of success. You give him way too much unearned credit.

What would make half the mps go with Ruto? And half to remain with Raila? The thing is GEMA will not board Raila - they will board Uhuru or another GEMA if there was case to be made. But Uhuru is not going to manage to remove term limits.

Ruto right now can move with 90% of GEMA - but that is too early in the game. You cannot move because of Murathe or Tuju.

Ruto will only move when difference with Uhuru boils over publicly....not through proxies and shadowy characters....Uhuru has to come and say in black and white...he is joining ODM

[Nefertiti]

Robina kweli you are difficult. Am. On record saying that Uhunye can muster 20-25% Max for rao, and without uhunye support rao will max at usual 2% uhuru has to break the central bank of kenya to buy entire mt. Kenya, but without that and Ceteris paribus, this will be another of those usual rao circus and vitendawili

If Raila keeps original Nasa support he just needs 12% of central vote and he will win clearly with no rigging needed

This a small fact Pundit ignores. There a very critical reason Ruto sings Uhuru Nyayo despite being spat on hadharani. He NEEDS Uhuru to firm his dicy hold on the mountain. He has no direct support unlike the lies peddled here.

[Nefertiti]

When did you run this assessment? Ruto without Uhuru ans Jubilee machine can only muster that 20-25% in Mt Kenya. The propaganda has not even started on Ruto - PEV videos will tear him to pieces.

Robina kweli you are difficult. Am. On record saying that Uhunye can muster 20-25% Max for rao, and without uhunye support rao will max at usual 2% uhuru has to break the central bank of kenya to buy entire mt. Kenya, but without that and Ceteris paribus, this will be another of those usual rao circus and vitendawili