Before 2021- Uhuru struggling in homeground

[RV Pundit]

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It appears pro-Ruto groups are still on it - it quite easy when you're with the ground. Now as we approach 2022 - the Uhuru harambee houses boys - will realize how powerless they are! and will begin to loot in mega style in the wee hours of 2022 before they get orphaned.

https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Jubilee-faction-leaders-in-counties-emerge-ahead-of-polls/1064-5499890-14m0mkp/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Ruto snared Mt Kenya in April 2017 thru mlolongo backstabbing... at 8th March 2018 he had 100% Gema. The war of attrition has seen him lose BIG: Uhuru + GoK machinery, governors, half senators, a growing lineup of MPs, the entire non-political elite. Ruto has also been edged out of most non-Gema.... this scenario makes Mt Kenya a MUST-WIN for Ruto. William Ruto is in a very bad place right now.

Contra to Pundit's willful ignorance, the trend shows Mt Kenya will increasingly tilt into Uhuru's grip towards 2022. Once it becomes clear Uhuru is going nowhere Ruto is dead as dodo.

[RV Pundit]

Let me help you. GEMA and Non-GEMA.
GEMA - Ruto the favourite - enjoying direct support - as GEMA are keen to pay their political debt. Raila ZERO
Non-GEMA. - from largest to smallest (1m plus)
Kalenjin - Kalenjin officially 1m more than Luos. Combined with 100% of GEMA - came short
Luo - zero
Kamba - zero
Mijikenda - Ruto has some play
Gusii - Ruto has some play
Bukusu - Ruto has some play
Maragoli - zero
Somalis - Ruto enjoy fanatical support
Maa - Ruto has a huge play
Turkana - Ruto has a huge play
Other Luhyas - Ruto has some play

The rest are too small -

As you can see Ruto is your next PORK ceteris paribus.

If Uhuru who only had some play in Gusii outside won - what about Ruto with huge play across Non-GEMA and GEMA.

Ruto will be the first leader to unite GEMA and Non-GEMA except maybe Luos, Kambas and some Luhyas.

Heck outside Luo Nyanza - Ruto is not hated anywhere else. He already paid his penance to the GEMA who use to hate him. Ruto will get votes everywhere except 3 counties of Siaya, Kisumu and Homabay. Migori he might score 30%.

Ruto snared Mt Kenya in April 2017 thru mlolongo backstabbing... at 8th March 2018 he had 100% Gema. The war of attrition has seen him lose BIG: Uhuru + GoK machinery, governors, half senators, a growing lineup of MPs, the entire non-political elite. Ruto has also been edged out of most non-Gema.... this scenario makes Mt Kenya a MUST-WIN for Ruto. William Ruto is in a very bad place right now.

Contra to Pundit's willful ignorance, the trend shows Mt Kenya will increasingly tilt into Uhuru's grip towards 2022. Once it becomes clear Uhuru is going nowhere Ruto is dead as dodo.

[Pajero]

Boyo,go slow on what you are smoking,let history guide you.bye

[Garliv]

This is what Uhuru group has been trying to sell... That Ruto "stole" Uhuru's Gema support. And each time they are asked; 1. Where we you? And 2. Kwani Gema ni ng'ombe za Kenyatta ati Ruto stole?

Yaani, you seriously believe Ruto could somehow secretly "steal" Gema support without them knowing or wanting to support him? Explain how this is possible.

Ruto snared Mt Kenya in April 2017 thru mlolongo backstabbing... at 8th March 2018 he had 100% Gema. The war of attrition has seen him lose BIG: Uhuru + GoK machinery, governors, half senators, a growing lineup of MPs, the entire non-political elite. Ruto has also been edged out of most non-Gema.... this scenario makes Mt Kenya a MUST-WIN for Ruto. William Ruto is in a very bad place right now.

Contra to Pundit's willful ignorance, the trend shows Mt Kenya will increasingly tilt into Uhuru's grip towards 2022. Once it becomes clear Uhuru is going nowhere Ruto is dead as dodo.

[Nefertiti]

Well, if you answer us why Ruto who has support of the Gema masses grovels at Uhuru feet as the blows rain I will oblige.

This is what Uhuru group has been trying to sell... That Ruto "stole" Uhuru's Gema support. And each time they are asked; 1. Where we you? And 2. Kwani Gema ni ng'ombe za Kenyatta ati Ruto stole?

Yaani, you seriously believe Ruto could somehow secretly "steal" Gema support without them knowing or wanting to support him? Explain how this is possible.

Ruto snared Mt Kenya in April 2017 thru mlolongo backstabbing... at 8th March 2018 he had 100% Gema. The war of attrition has seen him lose BIG: Uhuru + GoK machinery, governors, half senators, a growing lineup of MPs, the entire non-political elite. Ruto has also been edged out of most non-Gema.... this scenario makes Mt Kenya a MUST-WIN for Ruto. William Ruto is in a very bad place right now.

Contra to Pundit's willful ignorance, the trend shows Mt Kenya will increasingly tilt into Uhuru's grip towards 2022. Once it becomes clear Uhuru is going nowhere Ruto is dead as dodo.

[Nefertiti]

You are delusional. At this point Pajero and patel make much more sense than you. Now Ruto has 30% of Migori

Stick to logic, OK? If majority Gema MPs backing Ruto reflects the ground, then so does majority non-Gema leaders - not just MPs - backing Raila. The rest is "up is down" theory aka spin. Donge?

Let me help you. GEMA and Non-GEMA.
GEMA - Ruto the favourite - enjoying direct support - as GEMA are keen to pay their political debt. Raila ZERO
Non-GEMA. - from largest to smallest (1m plus)
Kalenjin - Kalenjin officially 1m more than Luos. Combined with 100% of GEMA - came short
Luo - zero
Kamba - zero
Mijikenda - Ruto has some play
Gusii - Ruto has some play
Bukusu - Ruto has some play
Maragoli - zero
Somalis - Ruto enjoy fanatical support
Maa - Ruto has a huge play
Turkana - Ruto has a huge play
Other Luhyas - Ruto has some play

The rest are too small -

As you can see Ruto is your next PORK ceteris paribus.

If Uhuru who only had some play in Gusii outside won - what about Ruto with huge play across Non-GEMA and GEMA.

Ruto will be the first leader to unite GEMA and Non-GEMA except maybe Luos, Kambas and some Luhyas.

Heck outside Luo Nyanza - Ruto is not hated anywhere else. He already paid his penance to the GEMA who use to hate him. Ruto will get votes everywhere except 3 counties of Siaya, Kisumu and Homabay. Migori he might score 30%.

Ruto snared Mt Kenya in April 2017 thru mlolongo backstabbing... at 8th March 2018 he had 100% Gema. The war of attrition has seen him lose BIG: Uhuru + GoK machinery, governors, half senators, a growing lineup of MPs, the entire non-political elite. Ruto has also been edged out of most non-Gema.... this scenario makes Mt Kenya a MUST-WIN for Ruto. William Ruto is in a very bad place right now.

Contra to Pundit's willful ignorance, the trend shows Mt Kenya will increasingly tilt into Uhuru's grip towards 2022. Once it becomes clear Uhuru is going nowhere Ruto is dead as dodo.

[Nefertiti]

Boyo,go slow on what you are smoking,let history guide you.bye

Only Pundit and Garliv are intricately aware of Ruto's massive following across the country. Pundit's evidence is one opinion poll from an ad agency noone has ever heard of.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit let us just agree Ruto is the clear Gema favorite - while Raila is the clear non-Gema favorite. All factors remaining constant. We can slice & dice but it is a 2-horse race ultimately. Brazen lies like Ruto's "fanatical following" in Somali won't help you. Where is the evidence for that? No, Ruto has no play at all in Mijikenda and Gusii. Raila has massive support there - Ruto is actually very hated by Gusii.

Gema of course remain a big factor - and a MUST-WIN for Ruto. Considering the forces lined up against him there - by the man supposed to be his chief campaigner  - Ruto is at a weak position. Raila also remains with the BBI card while Ruto has nothing.

[RV Pundit]

You have PhD in stupidity and I earned one in Kenya tribal politics. Migori is about 40-60% kuria and Luos/subas. Ruto has enjoyed support of Kurias for a long time. I think URP had two Kuria mps in 2013 and even know. The issues Kuria want address - Raila has no time for - because they are small community. They need their own county or to be aligned with Gusii - Nyamira and Kissii boundaries - NOBODY is talking about SUCH REAL ISSUES in BBI.

You are delusional. At this point Pajero and patel make much more sense than you. Now Ruto has 30% of Migori

Stick to logic, OK? If majority Gema MPs backing Ruto reflects the ground, then so does majority non-Gema leaders - not just MPs - backing Raila. The rest is "up is down" theory aka spin. Donge?

[RV Pundit]

Biggest Non-gema voting block is Kalenjin.Ruto has 99% support there. Both Raila and Ruto will struggle in Ukambani and part of Luhyaland because those communities are keen to present their own candidates. And Raila while he was busy attempting to kill JUBILEE killed NASA.

As regard to coast & gusii - yes Raila (if Matiangi doesn't play) has edge over Ruto - but Ruto has huge edge in 20 plus pastoral counties including Matusa+oromo+somalis. So when all is said and done - Ruto wins Non-GEMA battle.

But Ruto is keen to put GeMA as DPORK - so if Raila was smart and had no such bad history - he could pull another NASA - by luring kambas and luhyas - again - for another 3rd time loss - but they are VERY TIRED - and this time round will do it on their own.

So as you can see Ruto is the man to beat -  actually it not even close. My prediction now Ruto will win by 55-60%. Raila will follow with 20-30%. Kalonzo and rest will share 10-15%.

Obviously because you;'re that desperate - everyone loves Raila and hates Ruto

Pundit let us just agree Ruto is the clear Gema favorite - while Raila is the clear non-Gema favorite. All factors remaining constant. We can slice & dice but it is a 2-horse race ultimately. Brazen lies like Ruto's "fanatical following" in Somali won't help you. Where is the evidence for that? No, Ruto has no play at all in Mijikenda and Gusii. Raila has massive support there - Ruto is actually very hated by Gusii.

Gema of course remain a big factor - and a MUST-WIN for Ruto. Considering the forces lined up against him there - by the man supposed to be his chief campaigner  - Ruto is at a weak position. Raila also remains with the BBI card while Ruto has nothing.

[Nefertiti]

Kuria are a MINORITY and obviously cannot be 40-60%. Ruto has no direct support of Kuria and his catch depends on influencers. Said Kuria influencers went to Nyanza BBI meeting recently in Kisii and pledged support for Handshake and BBI. Marwa Kitayama was there - and despite being booed for backing Ruto - praised BBI 2 for capturing Kuria issues. Past support for Ruto/URP is similar to Busia Iteso - fluke caused by NASA/ODM disorganisation.

Kuria may be close to Gusii - who are lead by Matiang'i and hate Kalenjin - but so what? Ruto backed Punguza which was a very bad deal for Kuria and has no solution for them. In fact he opposes any and all reforms.

Of course it is a bad idea to merge Kuria with Gusii - they should get own county or remain in Migori. Even Kuria leaders themselves don't propose to join Gusii. That just transfers the problem and once again exposes how hare-brained you really are.

By the way MOAS don't measure up to Phd thesis standard. Maybe diploma in guesswork  - it is proving to be pure junk and spin everyday.

You have PhD in stupidity and I earned one in Kenya tribal politics. Migori is about 40-60% kuria and Luos/subas. Ruto has enjoyed support of Kurias for a long time. I think URP had two Kuria mps in 2013 and even know. The issues Kuria want address - Raila has no time for - because they are small community. They need their own county or to be aligned with Gusii - Nyamira and Kissii boundaries - NOBODY is talking about SUCH REAL ISSUES in BBI.

You are delusional. At this point Pajero and patel make much more sense than you. Now Ruto has 30% of Migori

Stick to logic, OK? If majority Gema MPs backing Ruto reflects the ground, then so does majority non-Gema leaders - not just MPs - backing Raila. The rest is "up is down" theory aka spin. Donge?

[Nefertiti]

Kuria are 28% of Migori by 2019 census ... Pundit as always spins this as 40-60% to inflate his ego

Kuria West 101,090 (Male) 107,417 (Female) 6 (Intersex) Total= 208,513     
Nyatike 83,989 (Male) 92,164 (Female) 9 (Intersex) Total= 176,162   
Uriri 68,127 (Male)  73,318 (Female) 3 (Intersex) Total= 141,448
Suna West 61,430 (Male) 67,459 (Female) 1 (Intersex) Total= 128,890 
Rongo 59,257 (Male) 65,329 (Female) 1 (Intersex) Total= 124,587
Suna East 58,977 (Male)  63,694 (Female) 3 (Intersex) Total= 122,674
Awendo 56,348 (Male)  60,939 (Female) (Intersex)        Total= 117,290
Kuria East 46,969 (Male) 49,894 (Female) 9 (Intersex) Total= 96,872

The dynamics of the day aren't good for Ruto - Kuria are Handshake - both Jubilee MPs .

Tangatanga leaders from Gusii, Kuria throw weight behind BBI report
07 December 2019 - 19:01

Tangatanga allied political leaders from Gusii and Kuria regions have thrown their weight behind the Building Bridges Initiative report.

They however called for the creation of two additional counties, one in Kisii (Gucha) and and the other, Kuria in Migori.

...

Among those present were Kisii Deputy Governor Joash Maangi, MPs Joash Nyamoko ( North Mugurango),Silvanus Osoro ( South Mugirango), Alfa Miruka ( Bomachoge Chache ), Shadrach Mose ( Kitutu Masaba) and Innocent Obiri (Bobasi).

Others were Kuria MP's Mathis Robi ( Kuria West,) and Marua Kitayama ( Kuria East).

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-07-tangatanga-leaders-from-gusii-kuria-throw-weight-behind-bbi-report/

[RV Pundit]

Let not start MOAS. MOAS obviously has scored to near dot many elections - and would have saved Kenya a lot of billions - if we didn't have idiots like you - arguing with me and losing and losing again.

Ruto will sweep Gusiia and Kuria - once Gusii realize Matiangi is going nowhere except home. Matiangi who was aiming for Nyamira governors is getting played 10-nil.

Kuria are a MINORITY and obviously cannot be 40-60%. Ruto has no direct support of Kuria and his catch depends on influencers. Said Kuria influencers went to Nyanza BBI meeting recently in Kisii and pledged support for Handshake and BBI. Marwa Kitayama was there - and despite being booed for backing Ruto - praised BBI 2 for capturing Kuria issues. Past support for Ruto/URP is similar to Busia Iteso - fluke caused by NASA/ODM disorganisation.

Kuria may be close to Gusii - who are lead by Matiang'i and hate Kalenjin - but so what? Ruto backed Punguza which was a very bad deal for Kuria and has no solution for them. In fact he opposes any and all reforms.

Of course it is a bad idea to merge Kuria with Gusii - they should get own county or remain in Migori. Even Kuria leaders themselves don't propose to join Gusii. That just transfers the problem and once again exposes how hare-brained you really are.

By the way MOAS don't measure up to Phd thesis standard. Maybe diploma in guesswork  - it is proving to be pure junk and spin everyday.

[RV Pundit]

Too early to do this. I remember in my final final MOAS I gave Uhuru 15% of Migori. Kurias were like 37% against 60% Luos with 3% others.
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=4910.0

Kuria are 28% of Migori by 2019 census ... Pundit as always spins this as 40-60% to inflate his ego

Kuria West 101,090 (Male) 107,417 (Female) 6 (Intersex) Total= 208,513     
Nyatike 83,989 (Male) 92,164 (Female) 9 (Intersex) Total= 176,162   
Uriri 68,127 (Male)  73,318 (Female) 3 (Intersex) Total= 141,448
Suna West 61,430 (Male) 67,459 (Female) 1 (Intersex) Total= 128,890 
Rongo 59,257 (Male) 65,329 (Female) 1 (Intersex) Total= 124,587
Suna East 58,977 (Male)  63,694 (Female) 3 (Intersex) Total= 122,674
Awendo 56,348 (Male)  60,939 (Female) (Intersex)        Total= 117,290
Kuria East 46,969 (Male) 49,894 (Female) 9 (Intersex) Total= 96,872

[Nefertiti]

Who exactly backs Ruto in Gusii? - last I checked he had only Kisii DG Joash Maang'i and maybe 1 MP - as Onyonkas and shebang openly back Handshake. Influencers the key cog of your MOAS once again get ignored... ati now Gusii will ignore Matiang'i and back Ruto. Hehe reality reality - Uhuru used to campaign alone in Gusii cause Ruto is DOA. Ruto in Gusii is much worse than Raila in Gema.

Let not start MOAS. MOAS obviously has scored to near dot many elections - and would have saved Kenya a lot of billions - if we didn't have idiots like you - arguing with me and losing and losing again.

Ruto will sweep Gusiia and Kuria - once Gusii realize Matiangi is going nowhere except home. Matiangi who was aiming for Nyamira governors is getting played 10-nil.

[Nefertiti]

Maybe ballot stuffing.

Too early to do this. I remember in my final final MOAS I gave Uhuru 15% of Migori. Kurias were like 37% against 60% Luos with 3% others.
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=4910.0

Kuria are 28% of Migori by 2019 census ... Pundit as always spins this as 40-60% to inflate his ego

Kuria West 101,090 (Male) 107,417 (Female) 6 (Intersex) Total= 208,513     
Nyatike 83,989 (Male) 92,164 (Female) 9 (Intersex) Total= 176,162   
Uriri 68,127 (Male)  73,318 (Female) 3 (Intersex) Total= 141,448
Suna West 61,430 (Male) 67,459 (Female) 1 (Intersex) Total= 128,890 
Rongo 59,257 (Male) 65,329 (Female) 1 (Intersex) Total= 124,587
Suna East 58,977 (Male)  63,694 (Female) 3 (Intersex) Total= 122,674
Awendo 56,348 (Male)  60,939 (Female) (Intersex)        Total= 117,290
Kuria East 46,969 (Male) 49,894 (Female) 9 (Intersex) Total= 96,872

[RV Pundit]

Onyonka is lying to Matiangi - so he can have free run as Kisii governor. Matiangi and Gusii will soon realize they are going nowhere. I doubt he will even let go his job - until Ruto replaces him - in 2022. Raila huff and puff - about controlling Gusii vote - but Jubilee got the majority - and ODM have ZERO gusii Mp. Not even a SINGLE. Zero. T

Who exactly backs Ruto in Gusii? - last I checked he had only Kisii DG Joash Maang'i and maybe 1 MP - as Onyonkas and shebang openly back Handshake. Influencers the key cog of your MOAS once again get ignored... ati now Gusii will ignore Matiang'i and back Ruto. Hehe reality reality - Uhuru used to campaign alone in Gusii cause Ruto is DOA. Ruto in Gusii is much worse than Raila in Gema.

Let not start MOAS. MOAS obviously has scored to near dot many elections - and would have saved Kenya a lot of billions - if we didn't have idiots like you - arguing with me and losing and losing again.

Ruto will sweep Gusiia and Kuria - once Gusii realize Matiangi is going nowhere except home. Matiangi who was aiming for Nyamira governors is getting played 10-nil.