Will Uhuru survive GEMA rebellion.

[Nefertiti]

I doubt there is a single Raila supporter here who has decamped to Ruto - 100% contra to your narrative. Who are these folks "tired of losing" who are no longer with Raila? No, Kichwa Mbaya has not dumped Raila and definitely does not support Ruto. Not even Pajero. patel backed Ruto for a second after Handshake... couldn't stand the stench.

[RV Pundit]

Breaking news.NASA is dead.That means the luo..luhya..kamba alliances.That is 35%..Raila got 45%..so at best if he ratains Luos plus all non GEMA he starts at 25%.Realistically 20% because Ruto has adopted nearly half of that.Youre beyond obtuse.MaDVD,Weta and Kalonzo don't see eye to eye with Raila and it's over...not Jubilee shadow boxing.Divorced.Now you want us discuss Raila new partners like Atwoli, Waiguru, Mutual plus Joho ,Oparanya and who..Uhuru..or Matiangi.Some jokes are not even funny

I doubt there is a single Raila supporter here who has decamped to Ruto - 100% contra to your narrative. Who are these folks "tired of losing" who are no longer with Raila? No, Kichwa Mbaya has not dumped Raila and definitely does not support Ruto. Not even Pajero. patel backed Ruto for a second after Handshake... couldn't stand the stench.

[Nefertiti]

Yes - but they are all BBI supporters - exactly which influencer backs Ruto's anti-BBI schemes? Not even Duale. Likes of Kalonzo have deals with Uhuru just like Raila. They will back parliamentary BBI 2.0 in referendum - after that Ruto has to square with Uhuru 2.0. That's unfolding live as we watch.

Here's a small miscalculation on your part - the collapse of NASA is much much less impactful than the Uhuruto divorce. We can debate this if you are game.

Breaking news.NASA is dead.That means the luo..luhya..kamba alliances.Youre beyond obtuse.MaDVD,Weta and Kalonzo don't see eye to eye with Raila and it's over...not Jubilee shadow boxing.Divorced

I doubt there is a single Raila supporter here who has decamped to Ruto - 100% contra to your narrative. Who are these folks "tired of losing" who are no longer with Raila? No, Kichwa Mbaya has not dumped Raila and definitely does not support Ruto. Not even Pajero. patel backed Ruto for a second after Handshake... couldn't stand the stench.

[KenyanPlato]

Ruto can't even get a kaya pombo elder to support him. Uhuru was going to arrest euto by end of this month. Corona has bought this thief time

[RV Pundit]

They are all in BBI for different reasons but basically an expanded executive will see the hopeless ones dreaming of something.They are not backing Raila.Not anymore.So BBI is popular because it's a french la carte menu or American would say build your own sandwich...but we know Utopia town in Greece doesn't really exist..kenyans have huge menus but what is normally available is rice and beans..and beef & ugali and that BBI plus handshake is opposed by 55% of Kenya.. jubilee..bar a few.. jubilee majority in parliamentary, MCAs, Senate and out there will put a spanner because the question of 2022 is long settled..it's Ruto time.The jubilee bulwork long decided kumi Uhuru and Kumi Ruto..and they see BBI as NASA agenda

Yes - but they are all BBI supporters - exactly which influencer backs Ruto's anti-BBI schemes? Not even Duale. Likes of Kalonzo have deals with Uhuru just like Raila. They will back parliamentary BBI 2.0 in referendum - after that Ruto has to square with Uhuru 2.0. That's unfolding live as we watch.

Here's a small miscalculation on your part - the collapse of NASA is much much less impactful than the Uhuruto divorce. We can debate this if you are game.

Breaking news.NASA is dead.That means the luo..luhya..kamba alliances.Youre beyond obtuse.MaDVD,Weta and Kalonzo don't see eye to eye with Raila and it's over...not Jubilee shadow boxing.Divorced

I doubt there is a single Raila supporter here who has decamped to Ruto - 100% contra to your narrative. Who are these folks "tired of losing" who are no longer with Raila? No, Kichwa Mbaya has not dumped Raila and definitely does not support Ruto. Not even Pajero. patel backed Ruto for a second after Handshake... couldn't stand the stench.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit let's talk business...

Jubilee 1.0 - TNA-URP and Ngilu NARC or Balala farasi briefcase - was COALITION - with MOU to safeguard Ruto interest. In Sep 2016 hare-brained Ruto decided to mix the oil and water... we warned him not to do this. Now the chemical reactions are lethal for his career ambition.

CORD and NASA were coalitions not monolithic parties... Raila every cycle rebrand to fool Kalonzo and Luhya,... as he renege on deals. He was to Tosha Kalonzo 2017 but the desperate fool still backed him. Mdvd was "betrayed" in 2012 and quit ODM... was back in Baba bosom as founding member NASA. Now he is out I think. But you see NASA crew - all principals in BBI rallies where Baba speaks last as chief guest. When have you seen ANC or FORD-K or Wiper attacking Raila openly? The way Kamanda or Murathe viciously attack Ruto? You can say they were divided in Kibra but so was Jubilee... but can you compare NASA simple separate campaigns with Jubilee mayhem of Kamandas and Shebesh? The worst part is that Uhuru is PORK - very bad opponent - while Mdvds are clueless and powerless in contrast. Catch Uhuru dead in public with Ruto... last was Ruto escorting him to TZ at Namanga 2 years ago.

NASA divorced amicably - Jubilee is in civil war... one spouse will wind up dead - obviously that's the wife Ruto.

[Kichwa]

Ruto is damaged goods when it comes to electoral politics. If Raila is famous for elections being stolen from him, then  Ruto is known for being the High Priest of  corruption. Ruto would lose a free and fair elections to a lot of presidential candidates if the elections were called for tomorrow. If he is running agains Raila/Ouru, then it cannot even be close. Ouru will take the lion share of Gema vote and Ruto will remain with  handful of them not worth his money and efforts.

We can sample right here. Likes of Njamba, vooke, GeeMail were Uhuru diehards who now vehemently oppose Ruto. I wonder why? Scratch that, even I Robina was once pro-Ruto 2010-13. There have been mass defections - not joiners - from the Ruto bandwagon.

[Nefertiti]

I doubt Ruto - or anyone non-Gema - would get anything against Uhuru in Mt Kenya. It will be the usual 99% Uhuru the rest share the 1%. Please note we are not talking rigging, padding or mlolongo shenanigans here - but good old tried-&-tested tribalism.

Ruto is damaged goods when it comes to electoral politics. If Raila is famous winning elections but losing the swearing in, Ruto is known for being the High Priest of  corruption. Ruto would lose a free and fair elections to a lot of presidential candidates if the elections were called for tomorrow. If he is running agains Raila/Ouru, then it cannot even be close. Ouru will take the lion share of Gema vote and he will remain with something so small it would be negligible.

We can sample right here. Likes of Njamba, vooke, GeeMail were Uhuru diehards who now vehemently oppose Ruto. I wonder why? Scratch that, even I Robina was once pro-Ruto 2010-13. There have been mass defections - not joiners - from the Ruto bandwagon.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto that you understimate has been around and understand this game and made the right decision.TNA and URP was coalition ignore the stupid flower girls on 50-50. Ruto knew his job in first term was to build a war chest aka stash money and also tighly couple GEMA into KANU or ODM movement.So Ruto knew the risk...he would no longer be in coalition with Uhuru but will have trapped GEMA in an embrace they cannot easily untangle.So naturally Uhuru would do as he likes in Jubilee 2.0 but in exchange he won't easily call TNA and call for cancellation of coalition like NASA.You know when you praise Raila going into 8os and ignore 53 political genius Ruto nacheka tu.Its like a girlfriend upgrading to wife with kids.Yes girlfriend have great time with dates & dinners but eventually the wife wins.. because the children will keep the man for the long haul.Jubilee has bored children..and they don't want any seperation

Pundit let's talk business...

Jubilee 1.0 - TNA-URP and Ngilu NARC or Balala farasi briefcase - was COALITION - with MOU to safeguard Ruto interest. In Sep 2016 hare-brained Ruto decided to mix the oil and water... we warned him not to do this. Now the chemical reactions are lethal for his career ambition.

CORD and NASA were coalitions not monolithic parties... Raila every cycle to fool Kalonzo and Luhya,... as he renege on deals. He was to Tosha Kalonzo 2017 but the desperate fool still backed him. Mdvd was "betrayed" in 2012 and quit ODM... was back in Baba bosom as founding member NASA. Now he is out I think. But you see NASA crew - all principals in BBI rallies where Baba speaks last as chief guest. When have you seen ANC or FORD-K or Wiper attacking Raila openly? The way Kamanda or Murathe viciously attack Ruto? You can say they were divided in Kibra but so was Jubilee... but can you compare NASA simple separate campaigns with Jubilee mayhem of Kamandas and Shebesh? The worst part is that Uhuru is PORK - very bad opponent - while Mdvds are clueless and powerless in contrast.

NASA divorced amicably - Jubilee is in civil war... one couple will wind up dead - obviously that's the wife Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit here is one of your 95% Jubilee supporters stuck with Ruto 

Ruto can't even get a kaya pombo elder to support him. Uhuru was going to arrest euto by end of this month. Corona has bought this thief time

[RV Pundit]

Pundit here is one of your 95% Jubilee supporters stuck with Ruto 

Ruto can't even get a kaya pombo elder to support him. Uhuru was going to arrest euto by end of this month. Corona has bought this thief time

lol kenyplato is like a kikuyu luo..he has never supported any kikuyu politician for the 22 yrs I have known him.He is a maumau regenade thanks to his aunt. A rebel without a cause

[Nefertiti]

Well you ate that cake: if NASA principals back BBI for their own selfish reasons - so does Uhuru and Jubilee honchos like Duale. Duale knows poor, disorganized, feuding Somali clans getting real power under presidential is a pipe-dream. So like everyone else in non-Gema he knows what's best for himself and his folks. Mdvd, Kalonzo want to be DPM or CS yes, but additionally know that parliamentary is fairer shake than the obviously abhorrent Kikuyu-Kalenjin monopoly aka presidential. Greedy Uhuru wants to be Exec PM yes - but knows Gema numbers are dwindling fast as literacy and female empowerment take toll. Ruto of course wants to be imperial PORK - but also likes Kalenjin headcount trajectory. See? - all about interests all round.

Those mlolongo MPs worshipping Ruto - who you call 55% of Kenya - are loyal to him cause he rigged them in and bribes them big. The same applies to the Barsitei priest in this thread. It is not a secret Ruto has introduced the forbidden fruit of sleaze into the church all while thumping the bible. Man is to weakness.

It all comes down to why Kenyans vote the way they do - tribalism chaperoned by their leaders. Raila has most influencers and beats Ruto hands-down by this count.

They are all in BBI for different reasons but basically an expanded executive will see the hopeless ones dreaming of something.They are not backing Raila.Not anymore.So BBI is popular because it's a french la carte menu or American would say build your own sandwich...but we know Utopia town in Greece doesn't really exist..kenyans have huge menus but what is normally available is rice and beans..and beef & ugali and that BBI plus handshake is opposed by 55% of Kenya.. jubilee..bar a few.. jubilee majority in parliamentary, MCAs, Senate and out there will put a spanner because the question of 2022 is long settled..it's Ruto time.The jubilee bulwork long decided kumi Uhuru and Kumi Ruto..and they see BBI as NASA agenda

Yes - but they are all BBI supporters - exactly which influencer backs Ruto's anti-BBI schemes? Not even Duale. Likes of Kalonzo have deals with Uhuru just like Raila. They will back parliamentary BBI 2.0 in referendum - after that Ruto has to square with Uhuru 2.0. That's unfolding live as we watch.

Here's a small miscalculation on your part - the collapse of NASA is much much less impactful than the Uhuruto divorce. We can debate this if you are game.

Breaking news.NASA is dead.That means the luo..luhya..kamba alliances.Youre beyond obtuse.MaDVD,Weta and Kalonzo don't see eye to eye with Raila and it's over...not Jubilee shadow boxing.Divorced

I doubt there is a single Raila supporter here who has decamped to Ruto - 100% contra to your narrative. Who are these folks "tired of losing" who are no longer with Raila? No, Kichwa Mbaya has not dumped Raila and definitely does not support Ruto. Not even Pajero. patel backed Ruto for a second after Handshake... couldn't stand the stench.

[Nefertiti]

The reason Pundit you and I differ so sharply - is we are basing 2022 argument from divergence. You assume it will be status quo of Ruto vs Raila for PORK ... I know it will be Uhuru-Raila vs Ruto-Kiunjuri with parliamentary. The rest of the flowergirls will be split between these 2 camps - except a few Aukots and Karuas - with the leading horse bagging most of them.

BBI 2.0 will tell us this soon.

[RV Pundit]

Yours is easy to debunk because BBI will not have a parliamentary system nobody asked for..ignore Duale.The first time I remember the clamour to ammend the Constitution was 1995..I was form 1 kid who liked newspapers.Constitution ammendment that are that fundamental are not easy.Already Corona virus has kicked the can further down n bado...Moi died and we took a month to mourn him.People will wake from the horror of Corona virus on their personal life and economy..and last thing they want to hear is BBI.Uhuru will extend to Dec 2020

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru bosom buddy Muturi asked for Exec PORK to be leader of biggest party/coalition. Same as Wiper, Chap Chap (both want unfirable PM to run cabinet with PORK powerless but respected as English queen) while Nyong'os, etc want pure parliamentary. Same difference - unelected CEO. Only Mdvd wants flowergirl PM. ODM of course did about-turn to appease Gema - sleight of hand poor Pundit cannot decipher now. ODM will not oppose parliamentary Haji report. Governors and CoG care about more devolved %. Expect some Muturi variety of un-elected CEO disguised by directly elected figured.

Constitution was first amended bila makelele in 1964-69 - when Gema PORK and Luo had aligned interests - exactly same as now. That was a bigger wholesome overhaul than 92 multiparty, 97 IPPG and definitely 2010. It about alignment of the stars - as you argue against yourself here - all Kalonzos, Mdvds, Johos, Duales - back BBI for their own selfish reasons. With that coalition BBI will pass easy-peasy. There may be noises and decampings after that as 2022 take clearer shape.

[RV Pundit]

This new constitutional takes away parliament power to ammend katiba - which previously has been misused to make piecemeal ammendment.Tough luck with the new process.Tough luck even more with selling a parliamentary systems that takes away universal suffrage.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit here is one of your 95% Jubilee supporters stuck with Ruto 

Ruto can't even get a kaya pombo elder to support him. Uhuru was going to arrest euto by end of this month. Corona has bought this thief time

lol kenyplato is like a kikuyu luo..he has never supported any kikuyu politician for the 22 yrs I have known him.He is a maumau regenade thanks to his aunt. A rebel without a cause

Plato strikes me as grandkid of Mau Mau sold out by Jomo as he rewarded homeguards. Then Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru equally fuatad nyayo.  So very bitter with everyone.

[RV Pundit]

Plato for a long time went by Njamba - which was Kikuyu nickname for Raila *Plato is pro-Raila normally - a hero of 2002 turned villain - after Raila floored Kibaki in 2005 referendum and of course 2007 PEV. How Raila went from a Njamba to the evil itself is hard to fathom - but Kikuyus thinks he incited anti-kikuyu hatred in Non-GEMA (that Moi's KANU had build before abruptly picking Uhuru). Out of that Anti-Kikuyu hatred - kikuyus were kicked out from all corners of Kenya in 2007 - and that bitterness still live. The epicenter, of course, was Ruto's RV and given 1M plus Kikuyu call RV home, there was incentive to make peace and bury the hatchet. That peace is colloquial called JUBILEE. Anybody threatening Jubilee is threatening the peace pact. Now you know.

For Raila to go back to being Njamba - he first needs to sincerely apologize to GEMA and GEMA needs to also apologize for rigging him out. That is a tough conversation that is being sugar-coated as BBI and handshake.

Plato strikes me as grandkid of Mau Mau sold out by Jomo as he rewarded homeguards. Then Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru equally fuatad nyayo.  So very bitter with everyone.

[Nefertiti]

Jubilee Coalition merger into Jogoo Party was pyrrhic victory 101... very steep cost and not worth it. Now Uhuru has second wife - first wife shows up for tuition and gets teeth knocked out. Everyone knows it a matter of time before first wife is evicted from the mansion.

In your analogy Raila is Mama Ngina type that overshadow the first wives. Noone ever knew Jomo old wives as Mama Ngina steal the show.

Ruto that you understimate has been around and understand this game and made the right decision.TNA and URP was coalition ignore the stupid flower girls on 50-50. Ruto knew his job in first term was to build a war chest aka stash money and also tighly couple GEMA into KANU or ODM movement.So Ruto knew the risk...he would no longer be in coalition with Uhuru but will have trapped GEMA in an embrace they cannot easily untangle.So naturally Uhuru would do as he likes in Jubilee 2.0 but in exchange he won't easily call TNA and call for cancellation of coalition like NASA.You know when you praise Raila going into 8os and ignore 53 political genius Ruto nacheka tu.Its like a girlfriend upgrading to wife with kids.Yes girlfriend have great time with dates & dinners but eventually the wife wins.. because the children will keep the man for the long haul.Jubilee has bored children..and they don't want any seperation

Pundit let's talk business...

Jubilee 1.0 - TNA-URP and Ngilu NARC or Balala farasi briefcase - was COALITION - with MOU to safeguard Ruto interest. In Sep 2016 hare-brained Ruto decided to mix the oil and water... we warned him not to do this. Now the chemical reactions are lethal for his career ambition.

CORD and NASA were coalitions not monolithic parties... Raila every cycle to fool Kalonzo and Luhya,... as he renege on deals. He was to Tosha Kalonzo 2017 but the desperate fool still backed him. Mdvd was "betrayed" in 2012 and quit ODM... was back in Baba bosom as founding member NASA. Now he is out I think. But you see NASA crew - all principals in BBI rallies where Baba speaks last as chief guest. When have you seen ANC or FORD-K or Wiper attacking Raila openly? The way Kamanda or Murathe viciously attack Ruto? You can say they were divided in Kibra but so was Jubilee... but can you compare NASA simple separate campaigns with Jubilee mayhem of Kamandas and Shebesh? The worst part is that Uhuru is PORK - very bad opponent - while Mdvds are clueless and powerless in contrast.

NASA divorced amicably - Jubilee is in civil war... one couple will wind up dead - obviously that's the wife Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Wrong analogy because this a marriage - not baby mama drama - and also the husband here is terminal sick - and will soon go - he has exactly a few months before he will be lame-duck. The wife just has to wait it out - to inherit the kingdom. You see Ruto is looking at 20yrs career - 10 as DPORK and 10 as PORK. Therefore he was prepared to lose a bit now - and gain 10yrs.

Beside if had he chosen to keep URP - he would be a baby mama now dealing with exactly what you describe (nothing guarantee a coalition except goodwill) - but he is officially married to GEMA(property or children) - and all he needs to do keep the wheels spinning for another year - and everyone will focus on 2022 - and Kibicho will discover that politicians listen to the ground first - and everything second.

As regards Raila - everyone knows Uhuru is not taking the cheap slut to his parents (GEMA) - neither is he going to their parent's home(ODM). It's just a flick.

Jubilee Coalition merger into Jogoo Party was pyrrhic victory 101... very steep cost and not worth it. Now Uhuru has second wife - first wife shows up for tuition and gets teeth knocked out. Everyone knows it a matter of time before first wife is evicted from the mansion.

In your analogy Raila is Mama Ngina type that overshadow the first wives. Noone ever knew Jomo old wives as Mama Ngina steal the show.