Ok let's try Coast. The top influencers are governors - 5 of 6 back Raila. Top honchos are Joho and Kingi - Jumwa and Jicho Pevu are flowergirls. Raila has a grip on Coast since 2005 referendum. He scored 85% against Uhuru in 2013 and -17. Msambweni by-election will be another Kibra dogbeating for Ruto... if he is naive enough to take on Raila for Dori seat. We will see.
Maa - haha with Mau I doubt Ruto will even get a drop. Heavy hitters Tunai, Lenku, ole Kina, Tobiko are in Raila BBI. Where exactly is the confusion?
Gusii - both governors, senators, most MPs and of course Matiang'i are BBI damu. Only Joash Maang'i Kisii DG and 1MP is pro-Ruto. Onyonka was with Ruto but has since defected. Gusii actually back Matiang'i who is loyal Uhuru dog.
Luhya - Mdvd, Weta, all 5 governors, all 5 senators, most MPs are pro-BBI. Ruto big fish is hapless Lusaka who is a lazy coward and hide in Nairobi. So Ruto instead deploys Echesa, Washiali, Barasa and Khalwale. A handful of omena mostly Bukusu.
NFD - Isiolo is definitely gone with Uhuru boy Yatani. I can provide minutes of the night oath to back Raila himself on top of BBI. All governors are BBI. Likes of Haji is BBI chairman. Somali in principle back parliamentary so Duale has become wishy-washy in backing Ruto anti-BBI. The last by-election in Wajir Ruto had to buy everyone from ODM so his boy was unopposed - which tells us nothing about the ground.
Kamba - Kalonzo has made up with Mutua to back BBI. Ngilu, Kibwana, etc are BBI. Kalonzo still control Kamba and he seems to have a deal with Uhuru to back BBI as his henchmen and -girls get parastatal or CAS appointments. Ruto has Machakos MP Munyaka and loudmouth Muthama - the latter has gone dormant. The other day Ruto gate-crushed Wiper get-together and pretended to seal a deal with Kalonzo which didn't last a week as Kalonzo tag Raila to BBI in Mombasa, Kitui, Meru. But Kalonzo is still a watermelon and kati kati guy so we can only judge his present actions not the future. In Kibra the joke backed 3 horses.
Reliably Raila has the 3 Ukambani governors in his corner who helped him big in Kibra.
There - not sure I spot any confusion - regionally speaking - except in Mt Kenya. The ball is being played hard there - Ruto's big disadvantage is Raila trojan stole his Queen Uhuru. Now Raila is using GoK goodies and Uhuru 2.0 as a carrot to sideline Ruto. Everyone there was Ruto on March 8th 2018 - now all governors, half senators, some MPs, entire Gema elite backs BBI. I see Pundit wondering how Haji will work BBI magic report in June. Well the magic is already happening - it was unimaginable before for Raila to be chief guest in Meru hosted by all Gema governors, elders, etc.
The story that Ruto has the ground in Gema is just that - a pure white lie. Same as the propaganda about chiefs vetting raia - that incredible script was copy-cutted word for word on all gutter blogs. No single video amazingly. There was an "opinion poll" recently from a never-heard-of agency that said Ruto has Gema. BS. Let have Ipsos or Infotrak with some credibility do it. We had Ipsos poll 2 years ago before Uhuru said he is going for PM. Ruto and Raila were tied nationally. Ruto would score half of Raila now.
Wacheni uwongo - iko upungufu ya watu wa kudanganywa. Ruto is under siege in Gema - his only hope to nick the presidency.
FYI most of Non-Gema are as confused with this BBI animal as Gema. Claims Raila has non-Gema under lock and key is purely speculative. And no, Ruto beats Raila in NFD and Coast by a mile. Even Maa aren't sure what this BBI is supposed to do to them.
Western is a mixture. Not a given that Raila will take even 60%.
You overestimate.
While Ruto was organizing demo in his bedroom.. demonizing Baringo Women Rep who is Handshake - Raila was meeting trade unions in Nairobi. He has literally tied a noose around Ruto neck - as your boy camp in Mt Kenya desperate trying to stop avalanche of mass defections from the mountain.
You can't sustain defence when the ball is strictly in your penalty zone. Sooner than later a shot will hit the net.
