Odm desperate for referendum soon..

[RV Pundit]

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It's just not possible https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Inside-Raila-plan-for-a-referendum--/1064-5482636-wpx27l/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Ruto is very scared of disruptive referendum that could leave him isolated. The closer to the elections the worse the fallout can be for him. Buckle up.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto is very scared of disruptive referendum that could leave him isolated. The closer to the elections the worse the fallout can be for him. Buckle up.

At this point it is Uhuru who seem at greater risk of becoming a moi..a political reject.Mt Kenya have simply refused to board.He went to Nyeri market and people told him to great Ruto for them.Matatus there are bring branded in Ruto images.BBI train was ignored and had to be taken to Meru..and despite heavy funding of the crowd..they walked away.As we approach 2022, Uhuru become more lameduck as those with eye for political future listen to GEMA masses.Even the intimidated governors will not want to be a Waiguru..whose is already out of kirinyaga race.

[RV Pundit]

Technically speaking unless you're Orengo a referendum this year is impossible. So I hear BBI will complete public hearing soon then retreat to write their final report.I guess they trying to beat June 1st deadline. Do we get another report or this time we get constitutional ammendment bi ready for signature collections or for presentation to parliament. From there they will need 1m signatures.Then IEBC will need do the verification.Then 24 county assemblies need to submit their input after public participation. Then IEBC submit the draft to both house. That process at minimum will require 6 months including 3 months of public participation.Then iebc would require at least 4-6 months to organize a referendum...after getting funded of course.And you're looking into 2022.I didn't factor any judicial intervention or games

[Nefertiti]

Pundit when are the Jubilee elections? We are in March with no whiff of a meeting let alone such big events.

[RV Pundit]

Tuju went broke -.16B hell-hole- and attempted to commit suicide (I am liberally quoting the work of Sigmund Freud on the unconscious mind). You missed the news. That meant Jubilee party had to post-phoned PG -after Moi died- and elections don't look likely to happen. Uhuru is afraid to call for one. I guess without elections or NEC being called to extend Tuju term...Jubilee goes into abeyance of their law.


In the meantime Kiunjuri has gone to The Service Party of Kenya. He is not a member of Jubilee - so is free bird unlike the rest - who are stuck with Jubilee till 2022.

Pundit when are the Jubilee elections? We are in March with no whiff of a meeting let alone such big events.

[Nefertiti]

So now his flock coalesce in which party - the amorphous Tangatanga? Ruto has many big problems not just Raila or Orengo. Uhuru, Kibicho, Kinoti/Haji, IEBC. This last one as the opposition candidate he needs to start worrying about seriously. He will be demanding servers be opened as Raila is being sworn in.

[RV Pundit]

Parties are dime a dozen. Jubilee is united. Splitting it is hard. We will have a case of Mugambi Imanyara running around with party documents

So now his flock coalesce in which party - the amorphous Tangatanga? Ruto has many big problems not just Raila or Orengo. Uhuru, Kibicho, Kinoti/Haji, IEBC. This last one as the opposition candidate he needs to start worrying about seriously. He will be demanding servers be opened as Raila is being sworn in.

[Nefertiti]

I don't see an easy path to snatch Jubilee from Uhuru. Maybe he can buy a party - but Raila opponent was hapless Kalonzo not entire state machine. Ruto has formidable opponents - organizing a new party on the clock can be a real problem.

Parties are dime a dozen. Jubilee is united. Splitting it is hard. We will have a case of Mugambi Imanyara running around with party documents

So now his flock coalesce in which party - the amorphous Tangatanga? Ruto has many big problems not just Raila or Orengo. Uhuru, Kibicho, Kinoti/Haji, IEBC. This last one as the opposition candidate he needs to start worrying about seriously. He will be demanding servers be opened as Raila is being sworn in.

[RV Pundit]

The price is GEMA...the rest are details..including party. If today GEMA are with Ruto..they can join Jubilee Original or even Serice Party or even Hustlers Party of Kenya.

I don't see an easy path to snatch Jubilee from Uhuru. Maybe he can buy a party - but Raila opponent was hapless Kalonzo not entire state machine. Ruto has formidable opponents - organizing a new party on the clock can be a real problem.

[Nefertiti]

I been telling you you're dreaming but you don't get it. GEMA will shock you as they stampede back to Uhuru corner. Form a new party.... and the first problem is when only loudmouth  Nyoro, Ichung'wa, Alice join - while all the "neutral" Mt Kenya MPs who are the majority dither. Non-Gema flatly refuse to join including Jumwa. Raila 2007 had regional big kahuna but Kalonzo - Ruto, Mdvd, Balala. Ruto has strategic disadvantage. Even Duale wants parliamentary and won't join.

The price is GEMA...the rest are details..including party. If today GEMA are with Ruto..they can join Jubilee Original or even Serice Party or even Hustlers Party of Kenya.

I don't see an easy path to snatch Jubilee from Uhuru. Maybe he can buy a party - but Raila opponent was hapless Kalonzo not entire state machine. Ruto has formidable opponents - organizing a new party on the clock can be a real problem.

[RV Pundit]

Back to Uhuru to do what? Uhuru is going home. Unless he amend the katiba and remove the term limits. Politician follows the GROUND. Not the other way round. Supporting Uhuru right now is surest way to lose popularity in central. As long as Uhuru is with Raila - Mt Kenya are not touching him - even with 10 foot pole.

I been telling you you're dreaming but you don't get it. GEMA will shock you as they stampede back to Uhuru corner. Form a new party.... and the first problem is when only loudmouth  Nyoro, Ichung'wa, Alice join - while all the "neutral" Mt Kenya MPs who are the majority dither. Non-Gema flatly refuse to join including Jumwa. Raila 2007 had regional big kahuna but Kalonzo - Ruto, Mdvd, Balala. Ruto has strategic disadvantage. Even Duale wants parliamentary and won't join.

[Nefertiti]

I see we still diverge over BBI 2. Live presentations are ongoing. Wa Njambi is delusional as you and buys they are playing Raila faux pas.

Ruto has BIG hurdles - Kichwa calls them moving parts. BBI first resets the deck. Uhuru refuses to hand over Jubilee papers. Ruto buys Kiunjuri briefcase or forms new party - but finds Uhuru has new PM currency. So most Gema won't ship from JP so fast. Raila has cornered most non-Gema so Ruto wind up with Kalenjin and a few Gema and topups. He can't even get rickety URP back.

It easy to cause trouble - or play kingmaker - but attaining victory is hard. See how equally Raila couldn't win but can sabotage Ruto almost effortlessly. For the two non-Gema archrivals insular Gema is the safer bet and will continue to sneak through. Raila on the clock is ready to beat it as ceremonial president. His BBI ushers in parliamentary and he retires as the greatest reformer. Locking out Ruto is a bonus.

Back to Uhuru to do what? Uhuru is going home. Unless he amend the katiba and remove the term limits. Politician follows the GROUND. Not the other way round. Supporting Uhuru right now is surest way to lose popularity in central. As long as Uhuru is with Raila - Mt Kenya are not touching him - even with 10 foot pole.

I been telling you you're dreaming but you don't get it. GEMA will shock you as they stampede back to Uhuru corner. Form a new party.... and the first problem is when only loudmouth  Nyoro, Ichung'wa, Alice join - while all the "neutral" Mt Kenya MPs who are the majority dither. Non-Gema flatly refuse to join including Jumwa. Raila 2007 had regional big kahuna but Kalonzo - Ruto, Mdvd, Balala. Ruto has strategic disadvantage. Even Duale wants parliamentary and won't join.

[RV Pundit]

Who in non-gema mind will support Raila who absconded election last time  . And to top it up has failed so many times. NASA is dead. Jubilee could die..but NASA is dead. When you say Non-GEMA - what tribes do you imagine will back Raila? Luhyas? Kambas? or who? Mijikendas or Maasai. You see BBI is everything to everyone. It an easy sale...except come june when impossible has to be done..there will be mass disappointment.

Whoever has a edge btw Ruto and Raila going into 2022...will win both GEMA and Non-GEMA. It obvious so far Ruto has the edge. Opinion polls have him nearly 3 times Raila.

Raila game starts and ends with Uhuru. I am not sure whether to cry or laugh.

The real Raila supporters are demoralized. They know what is coming. They know Raila is yet again making big mistake and this time round - even the Luos are so tired. You can start from this forum. Completely demoralized.

All Ruto competitors are banding together because he is clearly the man to beat..but who will bell the gate? Raila? Kalonzo? MaDVD? or even Gideon.

Well Uhuru?

I see we still diverge over BBI 2. Live presentations are ongoing. Wa Njambi is delusional as you and buys they are playing Raila faux pas.

Ruto has BIG hurdles - Kichwa calls them moving parts. BBI first resets the deck. Uhuru refuses to hand over Jubilee papers. Ruto buys Kiunjuri briefcase or forms new party - but finds Uhuru has new PM currency. So most Gema won't ship from JP so fast. Raila has cornered most non-Gema so Ruto wind up with Kalenjin and a few Gema and topups. He can't even get rickety URP back.

It easy to cause trouble - or play kingmaker - but attaining victory is hard. See how equally Raila couldn't win but can sabotage Ruto almost effortlessly. For the two non-Gema archrivals insular Gema is the safer bet and will continue to sneak through. Raila on the clock is ready to beat it as ceremonial president. His BBI ushers in parliamentary and he retires as the greatest reformer. Locking out Ruto is a bonus.

Back to Uhuru to do what? Uhuru is going home. Unless he amend the katiba and remove the term limits. Politician follows the GROUND. Not the other way round. Supporting Uhuru right now is surest way to lose popularity in central. As long as Uhuru is with Raila - Mt Kenya are not touching him - even with 10 foot pole.

I been telling you you're dreaming but you don't get it. GEMA will shock you as they stampede back to Uhuru corner. Form a new party.... and the first problem is when only loudmouth  Nyoro, Ichung'wa, Alice join - while all the "neutral" Mt Kenya MPs who are the majority dither. Non-Gema flatly refuse to join including Jumwa. Raila 2007 had regional big kahuna but Kalonzo - Ruto, Mdvd, Balala. Ruto has strategic disadvantage. Even Duale wants parliamentary and won't join.

[Nefertiti]

All big kahuna are in Raila corner - and regions Luhya, Gusii, Mijikenda, Maa. Not sure how you deduce that as a Ruto strength. Raila was front-runner 2008-12 and lost. Coalitions win in Kenya obviously. Raila lost NASA but has ODM intact. He stole Ruto Queen. Ruto has what again? Kiunjuri briefcase? It not clear what party he will run on. Uhuru has iron grip on Jubilee and muscle to lock out Ruto.

And which Raila supporters are demoralized? Robina? Kichwa? patel? bitmask? Kadame? You are the sole surviving Ruto supporter. Wishy-washy GeeMail and vooke are MIA - show up at random to find you and Ruto have made zero traction as haemorrhage continues. The list of defectors and deserters is very long.

[Nefertiti]

BBI trick is easy to decipher :

Non-Gema get parliamentary so fairer shake. More devolution

Gema get more MPs and yet another bite at the apple Uhuru 2.0

Women get DG. Youth get a bunch of goodies - stolen from Ruto lips. Something for everyone.

Ruto of course can lead No and lose. Or surrender and still lose.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto right hand man Murconman can't even reign his own county





https://www.the-star.co.ke/amp/news/2020-03-10-uhuru-meets-rift-governors-ahead-of-nakuru-bbi-rally/

[RV Pundit]

You're getting ahead of yourself as always. At least now you're clear about being Raila person..rather than hiding behind parliamentary system

All big kahuna are in Raila corner - and regions Luhya, Gusii, Mijikenda, Maa. Not sure how you deduce that as a Ruto strength. Raila was front-runner 2008-12 and lost. Coalitions win in Kenya obviously. Raila lost NASA but has ODM intact. He stole Ruto Queen. Ruto has what again? Kiunjuri briefcase? It not clear what party he will run on. Uhuru has iron grip on Jubilee and muscle to lock out Ruto.

And which Raila supporters are demoralized? Robina? Kichwa? patel? bitmask? Kadame? You are the sole surviving Ruto supporter. Wishy-washy GeeMail and vooke are MIA - show up at random to find you and Ruto have made zero traction as haemorrhage continues. The list of defectors and deserters is very long.

[RV Pundit]

Where is Raila in that picture?

Ruto right hand man Murconman can't even reign his own county





https://www.the-star.co.ke/amp/news/2020-03-10-uhuru-meets-rift-governors-ahead-of-nakuru-bbi-rally/

[RV Pundit]

Trying to make everyone happy? That sound like an impossible task. Good luck. I still don't see the constitution being amended. Hii in entertainment to keep some of you busy.  Constitution requires serious negotiation. I am not seeing any. This is more like commission of inquiry - wiki, akiwumi, tjrc, name all of them...destined for dustbin.

BBI trick is easy to decipher :

Non-Gema get parliamentary so fairer shake. More devolution

Gema get more MPs and yet another bite at the apple Uhuru 2.0

Women get DG. Youth get a bunch of goodies - stolen from Ruto lips. Something for everyone.

Ruto of course can lead No and lose. Or surrender and still lose.