This scenario is new in the world - people were stopped by Moi from holding their own Kamukunjis. Noone had to be kicked out of Moi meetings with nyahunyo. Likes of Karua walked out on Moi. Tangatanga desperation is new phenomenon.
About history - Ruto is not the first nor last VP to be hanged. It a long list - Jaramogi, Murumbi, Kibaki, Karanja, Saitoti, Kalonzo. Even the statistics don't defy your spin. Only smart but humble Moi and Kibaki made it - Ruto is nothing like them hence his dismal chance.
BBI has solidifed non-Gema around Raila. Ruto no longer even bother with Gusii or Pwani after it fizzled out to one Jumwa or Joash Maang'i. BBI double-edged sword will leave him with Kalenjin and in Mt Kenya vs Uhuru. Even with 100% Gema he has tough luck. Now imagine he has to face Uhuru in Mt Kenya. It a redux of Jubilee 2013 without Uhuru. URP.
Kiunjuri is a non-issue. Same as PK or Karua or Waiguru. Kiunjuri need to run for PORK - or PM - and Ruto maybe go slow and give him space. These Kurias and Nyoros should be praising Kiunjuri as great leader
I am surprised am teaching you basics: folks don't follow a follower. He can't follower Ruto all over and attract following. Gema is Uhuru vs Ruto.
You're evidently so young and naive - because there are so many Raila supporters we have seen over the years - but none as young and naive as you're. There are things that are given - stuff we debated and finished in 90s. We are not going to discuss Chiefs and politics now. It ridiculous.
Mt kenya is not a must win for Ruto. It depend on the scenarios. For 50% - yes. For a re-run - NO.
Now talking of Raila.If NASA remain broken - and Raila doesn't manage to re-built it - then he is even bad position.
Mt kenya will not vote for Raila soon.
So Ruto has to know who he is competing with and under what system. If the status quo remain - his best bet is to stick with Kiunjuri - and slice off huge portion of GEMA - and attempt 50% or a re-run.
If we go parliamentary - then game shift to sponsoring as many MPs as possible - and hoping they win - and then entering coalitions with someone with a 20-30mps. Ruto is like a fish under water in getting Mps. Raila is used to big podium politics and has no energy to get mp - you need to identify and sponsor people early enough.