Ruto will win in 2022. Four reasons:
1) Raila is too gullible and never has a real plan. On top of that, he is not really trusted by GEMA.
2) Ruto has no real opposition. Kalonzo, Mudavadi, etc. are flakes with no national support.
3) GEMA would rather go with Ruto as the best of bad alternatives. GEMA and RV will unite and then buy some of the other groups.
4) All current and prospective Big Looters will line up behind Ruto. Small fish not wishing to be left behind will quickly follow.
The only "positive" there is in sight is that after Ruto and his fellow looters really f**k up the country---and, inevitably, they will---Kenyans will, as they did with Moi, wake up (for a really short time) and demand some real changes. Then rinse and repeat.
The only thing Handshake achieved was a neutering of the Opposition, allowing Uhuru to govern without kelele mingi. For once, a smart move by Uhuru.
BBI = Boosting Bullshit Incrementally.