Ruto's bloodless coup

[vooke]

• Tweet

Ruto has taken over Central Kenya

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001352485/ruto-stages-a-bloodless-coup-on-jubilee-party

[RV Pundit]

Yeap show of mighty by Ruto & Kiunjuri to summon 57 mps and 97mps in Rift valley and Mt Kenya is pretty much gameshot. The opposing side had 10 Mps in Mt Kenya (already many are falling back because the ground is very hostile) and in RV - there are like 5 mps opposed to Ruto.

Once Ruto & Kiunjuri wrapped up mt kenya and rift valley - then game is over - the rest are essentially tops ups.

[Nefertiti]

This "coup" happened thru mlolongo in Jubilee primaries. I don't see how Ruto has gained cause this was a bad move that rattled Uhuru. He won the pawns and lost the queen, stallions and knights - Uhuru, CS's, governors, senators and Handshake coalition. I warned you it was lethal to pick a fight with PORK and his machinery for 5 years. You saw the rout in Kibra. Now we have BBI 2.0 being refined by CoE - while Ruto minions are demanding quick implementation. Jubilee will not hold a PG, no elections and definitely no primaries without Uhuru. Sorry I don't see what Ruto has gained - solid Jubilee in 2017 to the mayhem now.

[Nefertiti]

Team of experts to chart BBI path
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Team-of-experts-to-chart-BBI-path/1064-5377686-exki5sz/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Pundit & pastor - Ruto has flopped in non-Gema - seem even likes of ole Lenku are now Handshake. I saw Lenku in Kirinyaga with Waiguru and Matiang'i backing Handshake. Luhya is not going well at all - the Mariga "genius move" backfired badly and further exposed Jubilee dirty linen. Pwani wapi. Ukambani nothing. Apart from Kalenjin, Ruto hope is Gema where he is battling with Uhuru. Raila knows this and seduce Uhuru with Exec PM. Very tough luck.

I see Uhuru gameplan has not changed. Going by the BBI 2.0 maneno. Even Moses Kuria believes the report was edited during the 1 month delay. The CoE is a formality to steamroll parliamentary.

Bottomline Ruto path to victory remain a mirage. His goose is cooked.

[vooke]

This "coup" happened thru mlolongo in Jubilee primaries. I don't see how Ruto has gained cause this was a bad move that rattled Uhuru. He won the pawns and lost the queen, stallions and knights - Uhuru, CS's, governors, senators and Handshake coalition. I warned you it was lethal to pick a fight with PORK and his machinery for 5 years. You saw the rout in Kibra. Now we have BBI 2.0 being refined by CoE - while Ruto minions are demanding quick implementation. Jubilee will not hold a PG, no elections and definitely no primaries without Uhuru. Sorry I don't see what Ruto has gained - solid Jubilee in 2017 to the mayhem now.

This is how he has won.

1. He has more Mpigs from Central Kenya on his side

2. He has endorsed BBI as it were contrary to what everyone expected

3. He has succeeded in painting Babu as power hungry who attempted to exploit BBI to sneak into power

Nothing short of his death or accident can stop his ascendancy


https://www.facebook.com/YouthsStandup/videos/488051072060873/

[Nefertiti]

This is how he has won.

1. He has more Mpigs from Central Kenya on his side

2. He has endorsed BBI as it were contrary to what everyone expected

3. He has succeeded in painting Babu as power hungry who attempted to exploit BBI to sneak into power

Nothing short of his death or accident can stop his ascendancy


https://www.facebook.com/YouthsStandup/videos/488051072060873/

This is how he has lost

1. Ruto has Mt Kenya MPs because they think Uhuru is going home. Uhuru is not retiring by many indicators. Unless you buy Pundit's spin. He has since lost the governors, senators and CSs. Waiguru, wa Iria, Kimemia, Muthomi Njuki, Kiraitu have deserted him one by one.

2. BBI is not complete as you can see a CoE is already agreed upon. As usual Ruto is just ignored. Tanga Tanga wants BBI 1.0 implemented asap for fear of BBI 2.0. Muturi has already spoken against them.

3. Ruto plans in Luhya, Maa, Gusii, Pwani, Kamba have flopped. He badly needs Mt Kenya - not an enviable position.

Where's the Ruto victory? Even in Wajir he had to ourightly buy out the ODM guy to eke a win. In Embakasi he "won" thru Wiper guy. He had 100% Jubilee before the Handshake - as the annointed successor and co-president. Now it's hard to put a finger on anything - is there a Jubilee but in name? What's their position on BBI or anything? Recently they staged a soap opera in Kibra.

[vooke]

This is how he has won.

1. He has more Mpigs from Central Kenya on his side

2. He has endorsed BBI as it were contrary to what everyone expected

3. He has succeeded in painting Babu as power hungry who attempted to exploit BBI to sneak into power

Nothing short of his death or accident can stop his ascendancy


https://www.facebook.com/YouthsStandup/videos/488051072060873/

This is how he has lost

1. Ruto has Mt Kenya MPs because they think Uhuru is going home. Uhuru is not retiring by many indicators. Unless you buy Pundit's spin. He has since lost the governors, senators and CSs. Waiguru, wa Iria, Kimemia, Muthomi Njuki, Kiraitu have deserted him one by one.

2. BBI is not complete as you can see a CoE is already agreed upon. As usual Ruto is just ignored. Tanga Tanga wants BBI 1.0 implemented asap for fear of BBI 2.0. Muturi has already spoken against them.

3. Ruto plans in Luhya, Maa, Gusii, Pwani, Kamba have flopped. He badly needs Mt Kenya - not an enviable position.

Where's the Ruto victory? Even in Wajir he had to ourightly buy out the ODM guy to eke a win. In Embakasi he "won" thru Wiper guy. He had 100% Jubilee before the Handshake - as the annointed successor and co-president. Now it's hard to put a finger on anything - is there a Jubilee but in name? What's their position on BBI or anything? Recently they staged a soap opera in Kibra.

Uhuru is not coming back after 2022. Stop dreaming. Uhuru in any office is unsellable and it'll just make Ruto's job easy. The governors mean nothing when you have all the foot soldiers under you. Uhuru's goose is cooked hence the tantrums in Kikuyu. Why couldn't he r at easy after stealing all those governors from Ruto?

BBI is not complete yes, but Ruto has already poisoned Kenyans. First, there is nothing for Raila in it and no amount of public discourse will add to the already nothing that's there for Baba. Ruto has already embraced it. BBI 2,3...10 is dead and inconsequential to Ruto's ambitions and in fact ,it is Babu's side which is jittery. I now subscribe to the conspiracy theories that BBI was meant to finish Babu and it has done just that.

About those communities? Ruto is not yet done and he is gaining by the day. He starts the race with GEMA the crown Jewel. If you think Uhuru can fight Ruto outside Mount Kenya after failing to contain him there you're dreaming.

[Dear Mami]

Uhuru is not coming back after 2022. Stop dreaming. Uhuru in any office is unsellable and it'll just make Ruto's job easy. The governors mean nothing when you have all the foot soldiers under you. Uhuru's goose is cooked hence the tantrums in Kikuyu. Why couldn't he r at easy after stealing all those governors from Ruto?

BBI is not complete yes, but Ruto has already poisoned Kenyans. First, there is nothing for Raila in it and no amount of public discourse will add to the already nothing that's there for Baba. Ruto has already embraced it. BBI 2,3...10 is dead and inconsequential to Ruto's ambitions and in fact ,it is Babu's side which is jittery. I now subscribe to the conspiracy theories that BBI was meant to finish Babu and it has done just that.

About those communities? Ruto is not yet done and he is gaining by the day. He starts the race with GEMA the crown Jewel. If you think Uhuru can fight Ruto outside Mount Kenya after failing to contain him there you're dreaming.

If Uhuru still intends to stay on, I think doing BBI like that was a huge blunder. It now looks like he was trying to stay on as Exec PM and was wezwad by Ruto in Central, so he has kunjad mkia and kapitulated. That's what's giving Ruto power with Central MPs, it looks to them like Uhuru has surrendered or been defeated. That makes Ruto mo powerful than before. If Uhuru wanted to stay on, he should've fronted Exec PM and let chips fall where they may: at least then he would retain a significant portion of Central until the very end. Now he looks mo lame-duck in public eye than be4 they unveiled BBI, and Ruto has gone from looking like a defeated outlier to a very powerful chap. In addition, it looks like Handshake handed nothing to Raila so his supporters too arent enthusiastic. But its early days, 2.5 years to go. Let's see if there was anything mo to this than Uhuru doing a chicken dance.

I disagree with you on the 'outside Gema' contest: Huko, Ruto is not starting with popularity kama Gema. His chief opponent is Raila. What BBI has done is make Raila look weak/defeated to his supporters. If nothing happens to change that, Ruto will bag them easily. Raila's supporters hate Ruto mo than Uhuru. They will join Ruto only if they think Baba is finished. Perhaps that's what BBI 2 is meant to prevent. Still, if this was their plan, I cannot for the life of me fathom why they decided on doing BBI 1 like this. It has given Ruto a bigger gift than anything since Handshake. He has never looked mo powerful (on his own). It looks like he beat the president among his own people, the way Raila beats Madvd among Luhya. That's a crazy PR gift to hand someone, at ur own expense, that you're supposedly fighting.

[RV Pundit]

Hope truly springs eternal. I have seen it with our family with my father battling cancer. After BBI (blunder) - surely you don't expect another COE & referendum to bring back what Raila lost. And in any case any referendum is becoming time-barred.

Ruto is now the heir-apparent - the future - Uhuru is the past. The soon Uhuru accept his fate - the better for Kenya.

Both Raila and Uhuru can make it juicy if they were to propose Matiangi.

[Nefertiti]

Folks - here's the contradiction: has Uhuru been beaten by Ruto or are they in cahoots to trick Raila? Can't have it both ways. Ruto took over Gema thru mlolongo and these alienated Uhuru who swiftly trashed their MOU. It's really far- fetched to spin that these spygames and James Bond twists are to appease Raila. We have seen the brazen intimidation of Waititu who has capitulated and abandoned Ruto. The Kibra soap opera where Waiguru, Shebesh and the "Kibicho" apparatus openly worked for ODM. That the Ruto icy demeanor and fidgeting - those Murkomen tantrums at Bomas - were all staged

I agree with vooke & Kadame's take that Ruto has snatched Mt Kenya pawns from Uhuru. But at a very steep cost not worth it.

Ruto badly rattled Uhuru with the mlolongo swoop and Raila has successfully exploited the suspicions to wedge them with trojan 2.0. I mean at Oct 2017 what did Raila have apart from the failed NASA/CORD and useless Madvd. Now he has a Handshake coalition of Waigurus and Mutuas. What has Ruto gained since the Handshake? He was literally guaranteed 100% Jubilee+GoK but now how is that going? The incumbent without the machinery. The civil war in Jubilee and particularly Mt Kenya has distracted Ruto in non-Gema.

Look: Pundit has fallen out of love with his MOAS for a reason. Out of Mt Kenya and Kalenjin, Ruto has lost the battle to Raila. Where is he doing well - point it out - Coast? Ukambani? Gusii? Luhya? Maa?

Now talk of Mt Kenya: Raila is dangling Exec PM to Uhuru and this makes Ruto's game very complex. He lacks oomph to confront Uhuru for fear it could backfire. Uhuru does not need to sell Raila in Mt Kenya - rather Raila needs to sell him in non-Gema. So long as Gema gets a second bite at the cherry thru Uhuru 2.0 - Ruto will have tough luck bagging that vote. Ruto Mt Kenya chances are same as Raila in Kalenjin pre-2012. Zero difference between Kosgey, Magerer, Frank Bett, Sally, Sirma vs Kuria, Ichung'wa, Ngirici, Nyoro, etc. Raila seems ready to sacrifice his ambition for the parliamentary system - and this is his ace card over Ruto. Because of the Kikuyu-Kalenjin 60 years monopoly of power - Raila beats Ruto in non-Gema by a mile. How do you convince Luhya to wait for 2042 after Kiunjuri At least parliamentary give them a fairer chance.

That's how I read it. BBI is still in the works. Pundit it's laughable that greedy son of Jomo wants to retire as Party Supreme Leader like senile Moi. Or he has lung cancer nonsense. Raila has a solid offer while Ruto has nothing.

[Dear Mami]

I dont believe in the "its an act" theory. If Raila wasnt in on BBI 1.0, he would be on to staging Okoa 2.0 or NRM 2.0 by now. He has also announced we will take 60 days to gather views and eventually head to referendum next year. That itll cost no mo than 2 billion and will be a simple Yes/No. That report also says Uhuru wants Ref much sooner thsn Raila who wants a year to ref. Manyora also thinks they shelved the actual BBI and will unleash after "gathering views" saying its the opinions of Kenyans (I'm assuming Atwoli noises etc). I think it was a big mistake not to unveil the original BBI from the start. It has given Ruto a big PR gift IMO. Let's see if he can retain it through the BBI 2.0 clamour.

[Nefertiti]

Kadame: I agree there was no imperative to shelve the final draft. Parliamentary was reducted to measure the temperature and acclimatize Mt Kenya to change. I see the new choir of Kieleweke and CS's lead by Waiguru and Matiang'i as mandated to sell Uhuru 2.0. Noone outside Kalenjin and Kikuyu needs any convincing on parliamentary vs imperial presidency. Lazy Uhuru insisted on a fresh window to hammer a few more Waititus into form. Raila has already lined up the rest of the country but Arap Jomo's incompetence has let him down.

The definitive here is Raila's readiness to lose the battle for the war. Pundit calls it desperation. I see patriorism. There is ample empirical evidence of the parliamentary model's advantages all over the world.

[Nefertiti]

  BBI 2.0 in the works

https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Raila-Leave-2022-poll-talk-out-of-BBI/3126390-5378610-pboqyf/index.html

[RV Pundit]

Eti BBI 2.0 through a comitte of expert..hope truly springs eternal.Where will it pass..Mt Kenya don't want it.Uhuru knows it. Raila is being taken to cleaners.Sonko now in prison talked himself horse about extending Uhuru term and that didn't help them.Uhuru has disengaged from politics except to manage and contain Raila.They are in cahoots with Ruto.Like BBI 1.0 demonstrated...but now we got a new straw to clutch another committee of experts.

[vooke]

Uhuru is not coming back after 2022. Stop dreaming. Uhuru in any office is unsellable and it'll just make Ruto's job easy. The governors mean nothing when you have all the foot soldiers under you. Uhuru's goose is cooked hence the tantrums in Kikuyu. Why couldn't he r at easy after stealing all those governors from Ruto?

BBI is not complete yes, but Ruto has already poisoned Kenyans. First, there is nothing for Raila in it and no amount of public discourse will add to the already nothing that's there for Baba. Ruto has already embraced it. BBI 2,3...10 is dead and inconsequential to Ruto's ambitions and in fact ,it is Babu's side which is jittery. I now subscribe to the conspiracy theories that BBI was meant to finish Babu and it has done just that.

About those communities? Ruto is not yet done and he is gaining by the day. He starts the race with GEMA the crown Jewel. If you think Uhuru can fight Ruto outside Mount Kenya after failing to contain him there you're dreaming.

If Uhuru still intends to stay on, I think doing BBI like that was a huge blunder. It now looks like he was trying to stay on as Exec PM and was wezwad by Ruto in Central, so he has kunjad mkia and kapitulated. That's what's giving Ruto power with Central MPs, it looks to them like Uhuru has surrendered or been defeated. That makes Ruto mo powerful than before. If Uhuru wanted to stay on, he should've fronted Exec PM and let chips fall where they may: at least then he would retain a significant portion of Central until the very end. Now he looks mo lame-duck in public eye than be4 they unveiled BBI, and Ruto has gone from looking like a defeated outlier to a very powerful chap. In addition, it looks like Handshake handed nothing to Raila so his supporters too arent enthusiastic. But its early days, 2.5 years to go. Let's see if there was anything mo to this than Uhuru doing a chicken dance.

I disagree with you on the 'outside Gema' contest: Huko, Ruto is not starting with popularity kama Gema. His chief opponent is Raila. What BBI has done is make Raila look weak/defeated to his supporters. If nothing happens to change that, Ruto will bag them easily. Raila's supporters hate Ruto mo than Uhuru. They will join Ruto only if they think Baba is finished. Perhaps that's what BBI 2 is meant to prevent. Still, if this was their plan, I cannot for the life of me fathom why they decided on doing BBI 1 like this. It has given Ruto a bigger gift than anything since Handshake. He has never looked mo powerful (on his own). It looks like he beat the president among his own people, the way Raila beats Madvd among Luhya. That's a crazy PR gift to hand someone, at ur own expense, that you're supposedly fighting.

[RV Pundit]

Btw Ruto and Raila outside GEMA - Ruto has huge edge. Don't take Robina word. Where Ruto has struggled lately has been Coast & Gusii but he has made headway in Western (14 mps recently held a meeting to support him), Ruto of course long conguered Matusa+Somali+related. That is like 2/3 of Kenya landmass. In fact I can name in one hand counties Ruto is struggling in - Luo Nyanza 4 + Gusii 2( Matiangi is new hope)+ maybe Busia & Vihiga - plus maybe Mombasa. Otherwise the rest of kenya's nearly 40 counties Ruto has serious play.

That is why opinion poll are showing Ruto with UNPRECEDENTED 40% in opinion polls 2yrs before elections. I don't recall anybody come that close in any opinion polls this early.Everyone can see Ruto is the clear front-runner - and they can see Raila has clearly lost his marble & has no chance -

I won't be suprised if Ruto win by 2/3 (63%) in 2022 ceteris peribus.

[Kichwa]

Keep on dreaming is all I can tell you.

Btw Ruto and Raila outside GEMA - Ruto has huge edge. Don't take Robina word. Where Ruto has struggled lately has been Coast & Gusii but he has made headway in Western (14 mps recently held a meeting to support him), Ruto of course long conguered Matusa+Somali+related. That is like 2/3 of Kenya landmass. In fact I can name in one hand counties Ruto is struggling in - Luo Nyanza 4 + Gusii 2( Matiangi is new hope)+ maybe Busia & Vihiga - plus maybe Mombasa. Otherwise the rest of kenya's nearly 40 counties Ruto has serious play.

That is why opinion poll are showing Ruto with UNPRECEDENTED 40% in opinion polls 2yrs before elections. I don't recall anybody come that close in any opinion polls this early.Everyone can see Ruto is the clear front-runner - and they can see Raila has clearly lost his marble & has no chance -

I won't be suprised if Ruto win by 2/3 (63%) in 2022 ceteris peribus.

[Kadudu]

  He would have to recall Davis Chirchir to cook the figures.

I won't be suprised if Ruto win by 2/3 (63%) in 2022 ceteris peribus.

[Kichwa]

RV pundit is still acting as if presidential elections in Kenya are won at the ballot box. Nobody believes that crap anymore.  Ruto has shown his hands too early and given Ouru enough time to stop him out of his bedroom.  His best bet is to find a way he can get rid of Ouru before 2022 and assume power to control the 2022 ballot.

He would have to recall Davis Chirchir to cook the figures.

I won't be suprised if Ruto win by 2/3 (63%) in 2022 ceteris peribus.