Treasury in a desperate move raids parastatals

[Nefertiti]

I don't buy the economy is tanking hullabaloo. Nor that Handshake has caused the economy to stall. It has been obvious that infra bing is gona be costly - cause it is  a big investment. If you have a big mortgage - huge payments - you have to cut down on leisure, etc spend - and kids or spouse will cry about fewer outings or no more holidays. Infrastructure deficit needs to be filled - I think privatisation is OK but can only fix the deficit. The century bond idea is better - cause you need to build good infra. So I agree with Pundit on his solution - the funding part.

But saying the Handshake has stalled the economy is misleading. Nor is Ruto or Rotich corruption the cause. BBI cannot affect the economy unless PEV recurs. Did the economy stall in 2010? 2005? Gossip is BBI has macro- fixes for devolution, GoK accountability and integrity. It addresses medical with NHS. Agric needs some innovations - the 60% ASAL is Kenya's biggest but idle asset. That GoK land need to be dished out free to large-scale irrigation with other incentives. Kiunjuri of course is a zuzu worse than Macharia - at least there is plenty infra to see - you need very good brains at Kilimo House. The Galana experiment can be achieved with better stewardship. Not Kiunjuri and hapless Eugene.

I also don't believe GoK can effectively fix housing - apart from a few slum upgrades. Look at Singapore where a super-rich state is unable to crack it. Growing the pie and equity is the sure way to pull folks out of poverty. Big Two does it for me - food and medical. Manufacturing is old-school approach to development - and very unachievable for Kenya. SEZs, textile and niche value-adds is OK but heavy factory is DOA. Cosmetics, pesticides and such are already successful mhindi industry.

No there is no BBI or Rotich problem. That's incompetent journalism. It is the pinch of the big infra investment. The building should continue - and few years from now the naysayers will be basking in the splendor. Some calibration is needed on the priorities. The sub -optimal SGR may need to be completed else it will be a complete waste. We can argue growth strategy - but you can't have your cake and eat it too. Either you remain 3rd world or invest.

[KenyanPlato]

I don't buy the economy is tanking hullabaloo. Nor that Handshake has caused the economy to stall. It has been obvious that infra bing is gona be costly - cause it is  a big investment. If you have a big mortgage - huge payments - you have to cut down on leisure, etc spend - and kids or spouse will cry about fewer outings or no more holidays. Infrastructure deficit needs to be filled - I think privatisation is OK but can only fix the deficit. The century bond idea is better - cause you need to build good infra. So I agree with Pundit on his solution - the funding part.

But saying the Handshake has stalled the economy is misleading. Nor is Ruto or Rotich corruption the cause. BBI cannot affect the economy unless PEV recurs. Did the economy stall in 2010? 2005? Gossip is BBI has macro- fixes for devolution, GoK accountability and integrity. It addresses medical with NHS. Agric needs some innovations - the 60% ASAL is Kenya's biggest but idle asset. That GoK land need to be dished out free to large-scale irrigation with other incentives. Kiunjuri of course is a zuzu worse than Macharia - at least there is plenty infra to see - you need very good brains at Kilimo House. The Galana experiment can be achieved with better stewardship. Not Kiunjuri and hapless Eugene.

I also don't believe GoK can effectively fix housing - apart from a few slum upgrades. Look at Singapore where a super-rich state is unable to crack it. Growing the pie and equity is the sure way to pull folks out of poverty. Big Two does it for me - food and medical. Manufacturing is old-school approach to development - and very unachievable for Kenya. SEZs, textile and niche value-adds is OK but heavy factory is DOA. Cosmetics, pesticides and such are already successful mhindi industry.

No there is no BBI or Rotich problem. That's incompetent journalism. It is the pinch of the big infra investment. The building should continue - and few years from now the naysayers will be basking in the splendor. Some calibration is needed on the priorities. The sub -optimal SGR may need to be completed else it will be a complete waste. We can argue growth strategy - but you can't have your cake and eat it too. Either you remain 3rd world or invest.

The economy is stalled because of unserviceable debt. That is all. Last time this happened was in 1990s

[KenyanPlato]

Uhuru needs $3 billion to settle or refinance this debt.

[Dear Mami]

The economy is stalled because of unserviceable debt. That is all. Last time this happened was in 1990s

Exactly, KenyanPlato. We have a limited amt to spend in a year, most of it goes to unavoidable expenditure, then we have too little left for 'development' and debt repayment.

This year, we need to start paying the crazy interests in the loan-shark-like debts Uhuru mindlessly acquired. Basically, the debtor is finally knocking and we have no cash. Not only that, we have few options (for getting the cash). If we don't pay, we get downgraded and our interests for any future loan shoots through the roof. Which means forget abt future devlt. Right now, we've borrowed like 6 trillion or so and a huge chunck of it has disappeared in graft.

People are still in wonderland: they have not started realizing just how much s*** Uhuru has dug us into. Things abt to get real tough in that country, as if they not already tough enough as it is. Parlisment approved the new 3 trillion debt to convert our debt from the loan-shark kind to a more manageable kind. Don't know how much it'll improve things.

Worst thing? It'd have taken Jubilee less than 500 billion of all those trillions to completely revitalize agriculture and take care of 70% of the population and end cyclical famine. By modernizing the old rail network and connecting road networks to it from farms, enough modern food storage facilities in all the farming counties etc.

When pple realize what Jubilee has done to the country, they will bay for blood.

[RV Pundit]

Yes most of the it is exaggerated. But definitely we have stopped leveraging (borrowing to invest) and are back to just debt refinancing (borrowing to repay loan). I would hate if GoK was to stop public investment in roads, electricity, rails, dams, irrigation, sewage, aka stopped development because they had to cut budget deficit. My solution is simple....fund public investment by selling a few cash cows...like Kibaki/Kimunya did....and for god sake BUILD MORE ROADS OR GO HOME. A Gov in Africa or Kenya that cannot bridge the huge infrastructure deficit can as well go home.

I don't buy the economy is tanking hullabaloo. Nor that Handshake has caused the economy to stall. It has been obvious that infra bing is gona be costly - cause it is  a big investment. If you have a big mortgage - huge payments - you have to cut down on leisure, etc spend - and kids or spouse will cry about fewer outings or no more holidays. Infrastructure deficit needs to be filled - I think privatisation is OK but can only fix the deficit. The century bond idea is better - cause you need to build good infra. So I agree with Pundit on his solution - the funding part.

But saying the Handshake has stalled the economy is misleading. Nor is Ruto or Rotich corruption the cause. BBI cannot affect the economy unless PEV recurs. Did the economy stall in 2010? 2005? Gossip is BBI has macro- fixes for devolution, GoK accountability and integrity. It addresses medical with NHS. Agric needs some innovations - the 60% ASAL is Kenya's biggest but idle asset. That GoK land need to be dished out free to large-scale irrigation with other incentives. Kiunjuri of course is a zuzu worse than Macharia - at least there is plenty infra to see - you need very good brains at Kilimo House. The Galana experiment can be achieved with better stewardship. Not Kiunjuri and hapless Eugene.

I also don't believe GoK can effectively fix housing - apart from a few slum upgrades. Look at Singapore where a super-rich state is unable to crack it. Growing the pie and equity is the sure way to pull folks out of poverty. Big Two does it for me - food and medical. Manufacturing is old-school approach to development - and very unachievable for Kenya. SEZs, textile and niche value-adds is OK but heavy factory is DOA. Cosmetics, pesticides and such are already successful mhindi industry.

No there is no BBI or Rotich problem. That's incompetent journalism. It is the pinch of the big infra investment. The building should continue - and few years from now the naysayers will be basking in the splendor. Some calibration is needed on the priorities. The sub -optimal SGR may need to be completed else it will be a complete waste. We can argue growth strategy - but you can't have your cake and eat it too. Either you remain 3rd world or invest.

[Nefertiti]

I agree. There are viable options out of this hiccup. I also believe people have lumped economic flux - shifts in industry, finance, digital, Ubers and other models - and their slowness to adapt as a GoK failure. A "crisis". A cashflow problem is painful but is not a dead end. If you restructure, refinance, etc - get the cylinders firing again - the same lazy journalists will say the humming clockwork is a boom.

That's the real Uhuru or Rotich failure - vs Kibaki & Kimunya - fiscal indiscipline or mismanaging cashflow.

Yes most of the it is exaggerated. But definitely we have stopped leveraging (borrowing to invest) and are back to just debt refinancing (borrowing to repay loan). I would hate if GoK was to stop public investment in roads, electricity, rails, dams, irrigation, sewage, aka stopped development because they had to cut budget deficit. My solution is simple....fund public investment by selling a few cash cows...like Kibaki/Kimunya did....and for god sake BUILD MORE ROADS OR GO HOME. A Gov in Africa or Kenya that cannot bridge the huge infrastructure deficit can as well go home.

[Nefertiti]

The economy is stalled because of unserviceable debt. That is all. Last time this happened was in 1990s

You are right. But Uhuru unlike Moi has not been sanctioned or banished from global capital clubs and has more choices. Moi did not build big infra but brutalized the opposition. Credibility vs cashflow. The situation today is significantly different.

[Kadudu]

Another Eurobond?

Uhuru needs $3 billion to settle or refinance this debt.

[KenyanPlato]

The economy is stalled because of unserviceable debt. That is all. Last time this happened was in 1990s

You are right. But Uhuru unlike Moi has not been sanctioned or banished from global capital clubs and has more choices. Moi did not build big infra but brutalized the opposition. Credibility vs cashflow. The situation today is significantly different.

He can't get the money. He has been seeking funding for a while. How much can secure from outside lenders when the country is in debt distress?

[RV Pundit]

I don't see it as failure. I see it as over-leveraging. Kibaki brought debt to gdp from 65% to 40% by increasing tax collections (there was huge room for improvement from KANU) and by selling many kenya cash-cows including Safaricom. Jubilee found debt to gdp at 45% and has taken it to 60% - but to it's credit it has not sold any cash cow. Jubilee have also delivered far more infrastructure than Kibaki did - SGR, more roads and electricity connection than all 50yrs combined, etc etc.

Uhuru has a great legacy - he just need to bring it home. Fix politics by avoid referendum and managing Raila. Hand over to Ruto as promised and for god sake don't start a civil war btw kikuyus and kalenjin again. Improve tax collections by continuing the reforms at KRA. Sell a few cash cows - and nail agenda 4 - and go home to great retirement.

I agree. There are viable options out of this hiccup. I also believe people have lumped economic flux - shifts in industry, finance, digital, Ubers and other models - and their slowness to adapt as a GoK failure. A "crisis". A cashflow problem is painful but is not a dead end. If you restructure, refinance, etc - get the cylinders firing again - the same lazy journalists will say the humming clockwork is a boom.

That's the real Uhuru or Rotich failure - vs Kibaki & Kimunya - fiscal indiscipline or mismanaging cashflow.

Yes most of the it is exaggerated. But definitely we have stopped leveraging (borrowing to invest) and are back to just debt refinancing (borrowing to repay loan). I would hate if GoK was to stop public investment in roads, electricity, rails, dams, irrigation, sewage, aka stopped development because they had to cut budget deficit. My solution is simple....fund public investment by selling a few cash cows...like Kibaki/Kimunya did....and for god sake BUILD MORE ROADS OR GO HOME. A Gov in Africa or Kenya that cannot bridge the huge infrastructure deficit can as well go home.

[RV Pundit]

Right when you get to 60% debt to gdp - nobody is lending. That is why Chinese left the railway in a maize plantation in Narok. Kenya can only get funding from Eurobond, ADB, likes of Japan, France and etc who takes a really long view of lending.

So only option for Uhuru is to either grind development activities to the ground or look for other ways to finance...and that is selling gov assets.

He can't get the money. He has been seeking funding for a while. How much can secure from outside lenders when the country is in debt distress?

[KenyanPlato]

Right when you get to 60% debt to gdp - nobody is lending. That is why Chinese left the railway in a maize plantation in Narok. Kenya can only get funding from Eurobond, ADB, likes of Japan, France and etc who takes a really long view of lending.

So only option for Uhuru is to either grind development activities to the ground or look for other ways to finance...and that is selling gov assets.

He can't get the money. He has been seeking funding for a while. How much can secure from outside lenders when the country is in debt distress?

So if he sells safaricon who would be the strategic buyer and could he float these shares in open market for small investors?  What would he the implication would govt even more stressed from losing cash from such a cash cow. How much dividends does gok get from safaricon?

[RV Pundit]

The propaganda about selling kenya assets will be hard to deal with - otherwise the technical details will left to Wall street wiz kids ( CItibank/JP Morgans) - and they will arrange for their sale - Safaricom, Kengen, Kenya Pipeline, National OIl, KCB, Kenya Ports Authority...just a slice of those....can earn kenya 10B dollars...and then give out sugar industries for free..and add KCC...KMC..ALL THE DEAD WOODS..those will help clean a lot of guaranteed bad debts off Treasury/Public debt books. The same way we did for Webuye PanPaper..give them to Rais..for like 1 dollar if they are willing to take over the debt obligations.

So if he sells safaricon who would be the strategic buyer and could he float these shares in open market for small investors?  What would he the implication would govt even more stressed from losing cash from such a cash cow. How much dividends does gok get from safaricon?

[Dear Mami]

The propaganda about selling kenya assets will be hard to deal with - otherwise the technical details will left to Wall street wiz kids ( CItibank/JP Morgans) - and they will arrange for their sale - Safaricom, Kengen, Kenya Pipeline, National OIl, KCB, Kenya Ports Authority...just a slice of those....can earn kenya 10B dollars...and then give out sugar industries for free..and add KCC...KMC..ALL THE DEAD WOODS..those will help clean a lot of guaranteed bad debts off Treasury/Public debt books. The same way we did for Webuye PanPaper..give them to Rais..for like 1 dollar if they are willing to take over the debt obligations.

So if he sells safaricon who would be the strategic buyer and could he float these shares in open market for small investors?  What would he the implication would govt even more stressed from losing cash from such a cash cow. How much dividends does gok get from safaricon?

So Uhuru messes the economy and is gifted with our assets. How nice for him. One day, the streets will become unsafe places for all top Jubilee echelons because the masses will have finally woken up to their totally avoidable and unnecessary blunders and their costs to them. They could've stolen and still not screwed the economy but even that was too much to expect from them.

[KenyanPlato]

The propaganda about selling kenya assets will be hard to deal with - otherwise the technical details will left to Wall street wiz kids ( CItibank/JP Morgans) - and they will arrange for their sale - Safaricom, Kengen, Kenya Pipeline, National OIl, KCB, Kenya Ports Authority...just a slice of those....can earn kenya 10B dollars...and then give out sugar industries for free..and add KCC...KMC..ALL THE DEAD WOODS..those will help clean a lot of guaranteed bad debts off Treasury/Public debt books. The same way we did for Webuye PanPaper..give them to Rais..for like 1 dollar if they are willing to take over the debt obligations.

So if he sells safaricon who would be the strategic buyer and could he float these shares in open market for small investors?  What would he the implication would govt even more stressed from losing cash from such a cash cow. How much dividends does gok get from safaricon?

But do not you want to make this sale when valuation is high? Anyway screwball shelved that Somali guy commission report on public companies. I cannot remember the name of that politician he is a lightskin abri kadir or something Arabic. Screwball is going to just sit and hope this will blow over. How comes he travels alone for these debt hunts? Who really is the fixer at statehouse for this crackhead?

[Kadudu]

The gluttony that came in 2013 was unprecendented in the history of Kenya. Ndii and John Githongo continously warned Kenyans that this would leed to disaster and many like Pundit here refused to face reality. So now Ruto is busy building and buying hotels, building a over 1B Ksh residency in Sugoi. The Kenyattas busy expanding their banking busisness and buying out rivals. The diary business is now almost a monopoly. The building industry is also sliding slowly into their hands and we Kenyans are busy cheering them on and even talk of Ruto taking over in 2022.

With this hindsight now one sees why Kibaki's men were against the pair running in 2013. Their protectors and financiers against the ICC came back with invoices and now we can see the open mess we have. Uhuru is a captive of his family led by the never satisfied mother and a ruthless brother. The duo will do anything to add more $ to their portfolios.

So Uhuru messes the economy and is gifted with our assets. How nice for him. One day, the streets will become unsafe places for all top Jubilee echelons because the masses will have finally woken up to their totally avoidable and unnecessary blunders and their costs to them. They could've stolen and still not screwed the economy but even that was too much to expect from them.

[Dear Mami]

The gluttony that came in 2013 was unprecendented in the history of Kenya. Ndii and John Githongo continously warned Kenyans that this would leed to disaster and many like Pundit here refused to face reality. So now Ruto is busy building and buying hotels, building a over 1B Ksh residency in Sugoi. The Kenyattas busy expanding their banking busisness and buying out rivals. The diary business is now almost a monopoly. The building industry is also sliding slowly into their hands and we Kenyans are busy cheering them on and even talk of Ruto taking over in 2022.

With this hindsight now one sees why Kibaki's men were against the pair running in 2013. Their protectors and financiers against the ICC came back with invoices and now we can see the open mess we have. Uhuru is a captive of his family led by the never satisfied mother and a ruthless brother. The duo will do anything to add more $ to their portfolios.

So Uhuru messes the economy and is gifted with our assets. How nice for him. One day, the streets will become unsafe places for all top Jubilee echelons because the masses will have finally woken up to their totally avoidable and unnecessary blunders and their costs to them. They could've stolen and still not screwed the economy but even that was too much to expect from them.

Indeed. Now mademoni/dark forces crew is understandable. The way out of this mess is the Saudi solution. We need a Maghufuli. Known thieves washikwe, no jokes, na hakuna due process. They are held until they buy their freedom with a nice check from wherever they're holding the loot. We need 4 trillion returned or we are in a mess. Wailipe. 50 million people are not going to suffer for a few hundred. At least Zim's fall was by mzungu blows; who will we blame? Time to be ruthless.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee has not screwed kenya but overseen the largest public investment in kenya history. Jubilee have build a railway with two dry ports that will be talked about for many years. Jubilee have doubled road they found - they have added nearly 10,000kms of new roads..that is about what Jomo, Moi and Kibaki combined did in 50yrs. Jubilee have trippled Kibaki power connections. Kibaki left kenya when KPLC had like 2M customers or less....now Kenya has about 8M...access has increased from 30% to now nearly 80%...and fast approaching universal access. Jubilee has give us free secondary, private university student get money from treasury like public, TIVETS will be in nearly every const. These things cost money...

But definitely Jubilee were in 2017 more popular than in 2013.

Uhuru has to just be wary about welcome Raila and entertain crazy ideas that can lead to political stability, tribal wars and tank the economy.

Those are the only down-ward risks.

[RV Pundit]

Yes the details of when and where to sell should be left to transaction advisors. We need to start the process. The screwball cannot complete anything without help of say Ruto or Matiangi.

But do not you want to make this sale when valuation is high? Anyway screwball shelved that Somali guy commission report on public companies. I cannot remember the name of that politician he is a lightskin abri kadir or something Arabic. Screwball is going to just sit and hope this will blow over. How comes he travels alone for these debt hunts? Who really is the fixer at statehouse for this crackhead?

[Nefertiti]

You are not bankrupt or in crisis. Say like Greece. That's alot of alarmism and negativity. You got choices. In future you will thank Uhuru not want to lynch him. He has done much more good than bad.

Kenyans are more like a kid wailing for being dragged to school... Kadame how is that analogy