Ruto Escapes Demonetization Dragnet

[vooke]

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One of the most futile exercises ever undertaken by Uhuru to crush Ruto

In value terms, the CBK said 58 per cent of all the money exchanged by September 1 was less than Sh500,000, while 75 per cent was less than Sh1 million.

https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Where-did-billions-go--CBK-falls-short-of-demonetisation-target/1056-5291422-utlv13/index.html

[Nefertiti]

I don't follow your logic.

a. If out of the 217B expected say only 70% is returned - it means the 30% is
1. expired by the deadline - a big loss to the thieves but unlikely
2. Used to buy goods - very likely. Part of the loot is lost in the exchange
3. FOREXed outside the country. Because if forexed locally CBK would know. This is likely the case at least for -part of the loot

b. If most of the 70% returned is in batches of less than 1m - breaking loot into such tiny amounts and getting multiple couriers to do the exchange - would leak half the loot through the cracks. No honor among thieves.

However you look at it the looters have lost some good money.

[RV Pundit]

Cleaning money in Kenya is easy

[vooke]

I don't follow your logic.

a. If out of the 217B expected say only 70% is returned - it means the 30% is
1. expired by the deadline - a big loss to the thieves but unlikely
2. Used to buy goods - very likely. Part of the loot is lost in the exchange
3. FOREXed outside the country. Because if forexed locally CBK would know. This is likely the case at least for -part of the loot

b. If most of the 70% returned is in batches of less than 1m - breaking loot into such tiny amounts and getting multiple couriers to do the exchange - would leak half the loot through the cracks. No honor among thieves.

However you look at it the looters have lost some good money.

I was being sarcastic.

Every note not returned (minus the few soiled ones, minus the very few in safes with dead wazees ) is money lost to the thieves. Being exchanged in forex transactions is still unhelpful as anyone holding it will lose.  Unless you say the thieves somewhat managed to find bigger fools willing to hold their old 1K notes in exchange for clean Benjamins.. doubtful
But after this they will resume stealing.

[Dear Mami]

I'm so behind news. I heard people here announce that diasporans with Kenyan money should give it to those travelling back home to be exchanged. Never followed those convos coz I hardly ever have notes, even Euros. You mean this entire thing was aimed at Ruto? Kenya kweli. What about the one about creating passport deadlines instead of just issuing new passports upon expiration of old ones like literally every other country on the planet? It's incredibly silly so there must be some other hidden political reason behind it too. Do you guys know what it is?

[Nefertiti]

I don't follow your logic.

a. If out of the 217B expected say only 70% is returned - it means the 30% is
1. expired by the deadline - a big loss to the thieves but unlikely
2. Used to buy goods - very likely. Part of the loot is lost in the exchange
3. FOREXed outside the country. Because if forexed locally CBK would know. This is likely the case at least for -part of the loot

b. If most of the 70% returned is in batches of less than 1m - breaking loot into such tiny amounts and getting multiple couriers to do the exchange - would leak half the loot through the cracks. No honor among thieves.

However you look at it the looters have lost some good money.

I was being sarcastic.

Every note not returned (minus the few soiled ones, minus the very few in safes with dead wazees ) is money lost to the thieves. Being exchanged in forex transactions is still unhelpful as anyone holding it will lose.  Unless you say the thieves somewhat managed to find bigger fools willing to hold their old 1K notes in exchange for clean Benjamins.. doubtful
But after this they will resume stealing.

On forexing the KSh - i see your point: it is practically impossible to forex the old notes. CBK formally asked foreign central banks to freeze KSh forexing from Jun 1st.

I don't think Ruto is the only target - he is only among the biggest. Too many drug dealers, wash-wash counterfeiters and tax evaders out there. Corrupt moneybags must have purchased lots of assets in the 3-month window at huge windfalls to the sellers. Either way they lose a major part of the loot in the short laundering period. I don't think Ruto will be "crushed" but this a heavy blow in the war of attrition.

[RV Pundit]

I don't think anybody in kenya has stash of cash because they cannot wash it. Going by Kaburas and all those who've been arrested - & pursued - by Asset recovery - most of the money is immediately converted into Prados, Lands, Rental, Hotels and such business.The big drug dealing boys like Kariuki and Mwao who deal with drugs - basically own banks (see charter house) or bribe bankers - to clean the money for them.

Now top political dogs like Ruto, Uhuru and Raila...basically have two types of corruption...they receive cash directly from bahindis and locals....those I think are ones that are dished out...or re-invested back in politics. For the big deals..like 30B SGR money Uhuru....the top dogs..basically use the Mauritius and British isles or other tax haven....to  keep the money and launder the money.

I think Mauritius has been the main place for Kibaki era thieves....this is when you start seeing Mauritius Equity funds...starting to invest in Kenya. You'll read about a Mauritius Equity fund investing say 2B in some company or buying shares. Others are invested outside kenya - because politicians - always want to have Plan B - incase they have to escape kenya.

The money is reflected as FDI - but I bet half of our FDIS - are our corruption money being brought back home.

So two main means...bribe or own a bank or a sacco & launder money for local small deals. For 10% of International Contracts - Keep the loot in tax havens, register an equity fund or venture capital - and comeback - and buy kenya companies or assets.

The idea that Ruto has 10B or so Kshs in cash is insane. Who'd risk that - what happens if it's get stolen or the house catch fire

On forexing the KSh - i see your point: it is practically impossible to forex the old notes. CBK formally asked foreign central banks to freeze KSh forexing from Jun 1st.

I don't think Ruto is the only target - he is only among the biggest. Too many drug dealers, wash-wash counterfeiters and tax evaders out there. Corrupt moneybags must have purchased lots of assets in the 3-month window at huge windfalls to the sellers. Either way they lose a major part of the loot in the short laundering period. I don't think Ruto will be "crushed" but this a heavy blow in the war of attrition.

[Nefertiti]

All that may be true... but NIS must have smelt some dosh. This can't be all about counterfeits. Ruto would have KSh cash in a bank safe for the same reason he has it in US$ or assets or even gold in Cayman: hedging. The "FDI" and such ukora happen because GoK looks the other way... but with Uhuru and NIS breathing on his neck - some handy B's would be in KSh for all the retinue of harlots and Judases he has on retainer. The wheat bonanza in Narok is obviously last-minute laundry rush. It's not a lethal blow but a blow nonetheless.

[RV Pundit]

Btw nobody ever said Ruto was the target. This was just online propaganda. What I believe was the main target is counterfeit - wash wash money - that West Africans were producing. I first heard about 5yrs ago that likes of Charles Keter were involved in the wash-wash with some cameronians. The main target of fake money is 1000Kshs. CBK has delayed releasing new generation notes with better security because of the 10yr kick-back battle to renew or not renew De-LaRue contract - eventually ending in CBK getting shares in DelaRue.

The old notes were easy to fake - CBK was aware that Kenya had become the HQ of fake 1Kshs.

All that may be true... but NIS must have smelt some dosh. This can't be all about counterfeits. Ruto would have KSh cash in a bank safe for the same reason he has it in US$ or assets or even gold in Cayman: hedging. The "FDI" and such ukora happen because GoK looks the other way... but with Uhuru and NIS breathing on his neck - some handy B's would be in KSh for all the retinue of harlots and Judases he has on retainer. The wheat bonanza in Narok is obviously last-minute laundry rush. It's not a lethal blow but a blow nonetheless.

[Nefertiti]

Wash wash is as old as paper money - only new variable is Ruto. Like of Ndii have no particular axe to grind with Ruto - but they fingered him as the slimiest sleazebag of our time. Mwaus and Sonkos or Kariukis have been laundering bloodmoney for decades. Everywhere including India, UK and such - the bigger motivation for new currency is corruption - moneybags, drug lords, tax evaders. I imagine there is already fake new notes in Nairobi - so it foolhardy to mint new stuff simply for that.

Btw nobody ever said Ruto was the target. This was just online propaganda. What I believe was the main target is counterfeit - wash wash money - that West Africans were producing. I first heard about 5yrs ago that likes of Charles Keter were involved in the wash-wash with some cameronians. The main target of fake money is 1000Kshs. CBK has delayed releasing new generation notes with better security because of the 10yr kick-back battle to renew or not renew De-LaRue contract - eventually ending in CBK getting shares in DelaRue.

The old notes were easy to fake - CBK was aware that Kenya had become the HQ of fake 1Kshs.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto this ruto that. Yes dirty money was the target - but it game of counterfeit - it's a battle to stay on top. Kenya has not updated it's notes for a long time. The new currency are more secure and harder to counterfeit - just like say new generation of dollars.

Otherwise if you're waiting for someone to be unable to clean up his money in kenya then you're more than a moron. That is why only 24 people in entire republic ever turned up with 2M plus cash the last few months.

Heck how do you even target somebody like Ruto who owns half the gov - meaning half the gov intelligence work for him. The other half are willing to sell information to somebody as generous as Ruto.It's moronic. You can bet even right there at CBK top board room - Ruto has his eyes and ears.

Wash wash is as old as paper money - only new variable is Ruto. Like of Ndii have no particular axe to grind with Ruto - but they fingered him as the slimiest sleazebag of our time. Mwaus and Sonkos or Kariukis have been laundering bloodmoney for decades. Everywhere including India, UK and such - the bigger motivation for new currency is corruption - moneybags, drug lords, tax evaders. I imagine there is already fake new notes in Nairobi - so it foolhardy to mint new stuff simply for that.

[Nefertiti]

The Almighty Ruto again.. with his own parallel NIS He's a mere mortal and it highly probable he has stashes in safes and deposit boxes. Dirty money is not only counterfeit - it include proceeds of crime such as loot, drug money, bribes, etc. I mean CBK itself said mopping up dirty money out of people basements was an objective.

Ruto this ruto that. Yes dirty money was the target - but it game of counterfeit - it's a battle to stay on top. Kenya has not updated it's notes for a long time. The new currency are more secure and harder to counterfeit - just like say new generation of dollars.

Otherwise if you're waiting for someone to be unable to clean up his money in kenya then you're more than a moron. That is why only 24 people in entire republic ever turned up with 2M plus cash the last few months.

Heck how do you even target somebody like Ruto who owns half the gov - meaning half the gov intelligence work for him. The other half are willing to sell information to somebody as generous as Ruto.It's moronic. You can bet even right there at CBK top board room - Ruto has his eyes and ears.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto was once co-president. Now he is a mere Saitoti with security of tenure and big mansion. Can he save his midgets - Waititus - from being kicked like burukenge.

[RV Pundit]

The Almighty Ruto again.. with his own parallel NIS He's a mere mortal and it highly probable he has stashes in safes and deposit boxes. Dirty money is not only counterfeit - it include proceeds of crime such as loot, drug money, bribes, etc. I mean CBK itself said mopping up dirty money out of people basements was an objective.

Ruto this ruto that. Yes dirty money was the target - but it game of counterfeit - it's a battle to stay on top. Kenya has not updated it's notes for a long time. The new currency are more secure and harder to counterfeit - just like say new generation of dollars.

Otherwise if you're waiting for someone to be unable to clean up his money in kenya then you're more than a moron. That is why only 24 people in entire republic ever turned up with 2M plus cash the last few months.

Heck how do you even target somebody like Ruto who owns half the gov - meaning half the gov intelligence work for him. The other half are willing to sell information to somebody as generous as Ruto.It's moronic. You can bet even right there at CBK top board room - Ruto has his eyes and ears.

yes Ruto money is now rotting in some safe house. we will see his political activities and fundraising grinding to a halt.Ruto understand power games including intelligence.He learnt all that under Moi.Raila is baby in such stuff.How do you think Ruto was able to out loot Uhuru and GEMA if not thro such intelligence gathering.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto was once co-president. Now he is a mere Saitoti with security of tenure and big mansion. Can he save his midgets - Waititus - from being kicked like burukenge.

He was actually the president.. because Uhuru was mostly drunk and dealing with hangover..I have heard Ruto bragging in kalenjin that he run the gov.In fact I heard him in 2002 personally alluding to fact that Uhuru had been selected because he will run the gov given the man is a drunkard.Now is when Ruto is co president...he has his half doing his bidding.

[vooke]

Pundito,
How would you explain the 100B hole the government has just burned?

They released 218B and only exchanged 118B?

Where is the 100B?

[Nefertiti]

Well, when Uhuru stop kicking Nyoro like a dog - Rotich fired, canceled Kimwarer and all the witch-hunts - Ruto imaginary power might seem real.

[RV Pundit]

Pundito,
How would you explain the 100B hole the government has just burned?

They released 218B and only exchanged 118B?

Where is the 100B?

That was as of end of July.Recheck your data

[RV Pundit]

Well, when Uhuru stop kicking Nyoro like a dog - Rotich fired, canceled Kimwarer and all the witch-hunts - Ruto imaginary power might seem real.

Rotich made 5b from that dam.Power is wielded by intelligent hardworking folks.Uhuru has surrendered to Kibicho and Matiangi his share.Uhuru just pick the big projects and then zone out to drugs.The other ministries don't listen to Matiangi.They listen to Ruto who appointed them.Dont think PS or CS or Parastal head or ambassador appointed by Ruto will suddenly switch sides.This is why Matiangi experiment failed.The rest simply told him off.He has no political gravitas.Now as you sleep, Ruto is working with Duale& parliament budget head, Kikuyu MP, Kimani Ichungwa, to fund projects they will follow and take their cut .Real power includes controlling parliament, having NIS or parallel intelligence gathering, media, judiciary, all those make you powerful.And of course being mostly awake to wield power...Uhuru ia hand off dude...which is why Ruto loves the guy.

[Nefertiti]

That's ok - you can have your fantasy and we can still have our reality. I told you Ruto crew will be kicked out one by one. Echesa. Boinett. Rotich. All Ruto crooks in KPLC, KPC and name it. Whic judiciary does Ruto control - the one that suspend his choirboy Waititu. When Maraga invite everyone but Ruto invite get lost in the mail