Kadudu - Look like your majestic people are okay with Daktari

[RV Pundit]

• Tweet

Ruto has carpet bombed Bungoma, Kakamega and TransZoia reminding Luhyas they are his neighbors who stand to benefit - than staking their future on lazy MaDVD and conman Wetangula - who are stuck btw abusive husband Raila or foregoing their ego - and supporting WSR.

I think if he wins OJaamong and Kakamega's Oparanya - it game shot. Ruto may end winning about 40% of vote without a single GEMA support like Moi in 90s.

Right now it appears Rift Valley yote is in - including GEMA diaspora who appear ready to go rogue - so Ruto start with 25% of the vote   The whole NEP & such pastoralist place are also fully in - that is already 30% - before he gets to Western, Gusii-Kuria and Coast(another 10% is possible here -5% out of 13%,2% out of 5%, 4% out of 10% of regionalized national support).

That is already 40% -  He just need 10% to nick it without Mt Kenya support.I think that 10% can be got by giving either Luhya or Kamba DPORK .

Mt Kenya have to jealously guard 50-50 before it's too late. Ruto is already fending for himself and doing great. Ruto is busy assembling Moi like strong 90s coalition of small tribes - that should comfortably set him at 40% - and he has DPORK to auction for Mr 10% kind of guy (Kalonzo can get 8% easily).

https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Governor-Khaemba-trouble-backing-Ruto/1064-5124758-h6jc6r/index.html

[Kadudu]

 
It is too early for Ruto to believe the cloudy skies will bring rain onto his Sugoi farm.
The likes of Bonny Khalwale are hungry and will go anywhere where there is something to eat. Bonny a whole gyneocolgist has forgotten his learned trade and is not even capable of procuring an abortion to make a living on his own, unlike the unlearned Dr. Mugo wa Wairimu of Kayole.

[RV Pundit]

You know Ruto began the prepping in 2013 - Jubilee harvested a lot and he has many Jubilee diehards - Lusakas, the many kakamega and Bungoma politicians who will beat you up if you say something bad about Ruto. So I think this real - Ruto is capable now of taking 50% of luhya vote without giving them DPORK - definitely he is now at 40% of luhya  according to my rough rough moas

That is called leverage. Ruto support there is direct. The places he needs to deal are Kambas and voila ndani ndani with or without Uhuru.

Joke with Phd scientist politician at your own peril.

It is too early for Ruto to believe the cloudy skies will bring rain onto his Sugoi farm.
The likes of Bonny Khalwale are hungry and will go anywhere where there is something to eat. Bonny a whole gyneocolgist has forgotten his learned trade and is not even capable of procuring an abortion to make a living on his own, unlike the unlearned Dr. Mugo wa Wairimu of Kayole.

[Kichwa]

Retail campaigning or door to door campaigning is useless in Kenya if you have not figured out how you are going to "win" the elections.  We have learned since 2007 that elections are not won at the ballot box and I do not think anything has changed. If Ruto cannot get Ouru and the election cheating machinery behind him, he can campaign until cows come home and he will not see the presidency.  MOAS is dead.  What counts is who controls the IEBC and the server. PERIOD. BTW, RVP, are you still making the argument that the break up between Ouru and Ruto is fake and designed to playing Raila or have you come to the realization like many political observers that the break up beween Ouru and WSR is only going to get worse?

You know Ruto began the prepping in 2013 - Jubilee harvested a lot and he has many Jubilee diehards - Lusakas, the many kakamega and Bungoma politicians who will beat you up if you say something bad about Ruto. So I think this real - Ruto is capable now of taking 50% of luhya vote without giving them DPORK - definitely he is now at 40% of luhya  according to my rough rough moas

That is called leverage. Ruto support there is direct. The places he needs to deal are Kambas and voila ndani ndani with or without Uhuru.

Joke with Phd scientist politician at your own peril.

It is too early for Ruto to believe the cloudy skies will bring rain onto his Sugoi farm.
The likes of Bonny Khalwale are hungry and will go anywhere where there is something to eat. Bonny a whole gyneocolgist has forgotten his learned trade and is not even capable of procuring an abortion to make a living on his own, unlike the unlearned Dr. Mugo wa Wairimu of Kayole.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Retail campaigning or door to door campaigning is useless in Kenya if you have not figured out how you are going to "win" the elections. We have learned since 2007 that elections are not won at the ballot box and I do not think anything has changed. If Ruto cannot get Ouru and the election cheating machinery behind him, he can campaign until cows come home and he will not see the presidency.  MOAS is dead.  What counts is who controls the IEBC and the server. PERIOD. BTW, RVP, are you still making the argument that the break up between Ouru and Ruto is fake and designed to playing Raila or have you come to the realization like many political observers that the break up beween Ouru and WSR is only going to get worse?

I share that view.  What we saw 2017, and most like 2013 as well is not fake news.  That said, if kamwana and rigging machinery owners were to side with Raila, against the hustler, they will not need to rig.

[Kadudu]

Even Ruto's latest disciple Bonny Khalwale has said he backs Ruto because he will be declared president even if he looses the election. Khalwale is taking it for granted that Ruto will have the regime apparatus on his side.

Retail campaigning or door to door campaigning is useless in Kenya if you have not figured out how you are going to "win" the elections.  We have learned since 2007 that elections are not won at the ballot box and I do not think anything has changed. If Ruto cannot get Ouru and the election cheating machinery behind him, he can campaign until cows come home and he will not see the presidency.  MOAS is dead. What counts is who controls the IEBC and the server. PERIOD. BTW, RVP, are you still making the argument that the break up between Ouru and Ruto is fake and designed to playing Raila or have you come to the realization like many political observers that the break up beween Ouru and WSR is only going to get worse?

[RV Pundit]

If election were rigged - we would know - like we did in 2007 and we would erupt so badly. Rigging has become increasingly difficult with all the tech deployed. I know you're talking servers - but our election is still paper based - not digital - and to have likes of Terminator basically take leave of all reasoning - and back the rigging theory without evidence - is the how low you guys have sunk.

If election were easy to win - just control IEBC and rig - Ruto won't have been campaigning this hard - elections in kenya are won- the bigger the margins - the harder it is to be rigged. There is the usual rigging from both sides - small % - as you saw the few elections that have been annualed.

That is what Ruto is basically working on - 60% plus support base - and also post election date - you need  huge mandate to govern easily - you need mps, mcas, governors, senators - and whole leadership working with and for you - to really become one powerful LEADER.

Don't expect Ruto to slow down.

As regard to Uhuru - yes I am still of the opinion that Uhuru is playing Raila. This won't be the first time. When time comes for Uhuru to retire - and concentrate on his lung cancer - he will endorse Ruto - and Ruto will win by HUGE MARGIN - possibly even get super-majority (65%) - enough to ammend the constitution.

Retail campaigning or door to door campaigning is useless in Kenya if you have not figured out how you are going to "win" the elections.  We have learned since 2007 that elections are not won at the ballot box and I do not think anything has changed. If Ruto cannot get Ouru and the election cheating machinery behind him, he can campaign until cows come home and he will not see the presidency.  MOAS is dead.  What counts is who controls the IEBC and the server. PERIOD. BTW, RVP, are you still making the argument that the break up between Ouru and Ruto is fake and designed to playing Raila or have you come to the realization like many political observers that the break up beween Ouru and WSR is only going to get worse?

[RV Pundit]

Of course if GEMA back Raila he will be a strong candidate - but why would they do that. There is no rational reason why they will turn 360 and hand over power to Raila.

I share that view.  What we saw 2017, and most like 2013 as well is not fake news.  That said, if kamwana and rigging machinery owners were to side with Raila, against the hustler, they will not need to rig.

[RV Pundit]

Khawale knows Ruto is the only serious candidate out there - and has finally found the right horse to statehouse. Kenya elections are easy. That is why we do MOAS and many others do theirs - and can decide within an hour who will win - based on the who has the largest tribal coalition. The rest are details.

Even Ruto's latest disciple Bonny Khalwale has said he backs Ruto because he will be declared president even if he looses the election. Khalwale is taking it for granted that Ruto will have the regime apparatus on his side.

[vooke]

The reason Ruto is campaigning is not to win outright but to make it easier to rig. Stealing 3% of the votes is not hard but stealing 15% is bound to set the country on fire.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Even Ruto's latest disciple Bonny Khalwale has said he backs Ruto because he will be declared president even if he looses the election. Khalwale is taking it for granted that Ruto will have the regime apparatus on his side.

Retail campaigning or door to door campaigning is useless in Kenya if you have not figured out how you are going to "win" the elections.  We have learned since 2007 that elections are not won at the ballot box and I do not think anything has changed. If Ruto cannot get Ouru and the election cheating machinery behind him, he can campaign until cows come home and he will not see the presidency.  MOAS is dead. What counts is who controls the IEBC and the server. PERIOD. BTW, RVP, are you still making the argument that the break up between Ouru and Ruto is fake and designed to playing Raila or have you come to the realization like many political observers that the break up beween Ouru and WSR is only going to get worse?

Bonny should give the hustler something from Ikolomani.  Something beyond his multiple wives.  Maybe one of his prized fighting bulls.  Since ballot stuffing is allowed, they can even count the chickens.

[RV Pundit]

Ikolomani MP is Jubilee and he is Ruto allie just like Khawale. Nearly all the votes Jubilee got in Western - was thanks to Ruto hard work. You can deride all the hard work he is putting winning the likes of Khawale - but when d-day come - you'll be shouting incoherently like an idiot about servers and rigging in a manual election process.

In Kakamega - Ruto already has nearly everyone inside his tent - apart from maybe Oparanya and Malala. The same is replicated in Bungoma  - where apart from gov & Wamunyinyi who are still ticking with Wetangula everyone else is battling in Ruto corner.

Bonny should give the hustler something from Ikolomani.  Something beyond his multiple wives.  Maybe one of his prized fighting bulls.  Since ballot stuffing is allowed, they can even count the chickens.

[Kadudu]

Jubilee won many seats in Western just because the opposition parties ODM, ANC and Ford-Kenya all fielded candidates for the same seat. Had NASA agreed on one candidate  per constitutuency,Jubillee would have lost big. Even the presidential votes, NASA beat Jubilee hands down. It will not change and Ruto will have it rough winning even 30% of the votes.
Those fellows apparently in Ruto's tent at the moment are out for the cash Ruto is dishing out. The other day Khalwale donated a brand new car to a church. Surely where would a man like Khalwale with no known investments find even Ksh. 1M to donate? Time will tell and alliances in Kenyan elections are built in the last 3 months before the elections. Ruto is counting his chickens much too early.

Ikolomani MP is Jubilee and he is Ruto allie just like Khawale. Nearly all the votes Jubilee got in Western - was thanks to Ruto hard work. You can deride all the hard work he is putting winning the likes of Khawale - but when d-day come - you'll be shouting incoherently like an idiot about servers and rigging in a manual election process.

In Kakamega - Ruto already has nearly everyone inside his tent - apart from maybe Oparanya and Malala. The same is replicated in Bungoma  - where apart from gov & Wamunyinyi who are still ticking with Wetangula everyone else is battling in Ruto corner.

[RV Pundit]

Who will western vote for? Raila again . I think Ruto is making headways. Honestly I don't think western have the same hate on Ruto like they had on Uhuru. And that is what Ruto is working on. He got 8 mps out 33 last time. This time...he may double to 15mps. Obviously a lot of money will be poured...but Ruto doesn't need 100% luhya votes. He just need the 30-40% Moi used to get. He will only want 100% of Luhya - if they were to get DPORK instead of GEMA - .30% seem already doable - considering the ground game Ruto has - and positive vibe - the demoralized luhya votes - and of course - money will be poured - with all the harambees - and investment.

Jubilee won many seats in Western just because the opposition parties ODM, ANC and Ford-Kenya all fielded candidates for the same seat. Had NASA agreed on one candidate  per constitutuency,Jubillee would have lost big. Even the presidential votes, NASA beat Jubilee hands down. It will not change and Ruto will have it rough winning even 30% of the votes.
Those fellows apparently in Ruto's tent at the moment are out for the cash Ruto is dishing out. The other day Khalwale donated a brand new car to a church. Surely where would a man like Khalwale with no known investments find even Ksh. 1M to donate? Time will tell and alliances in Kenyan elections are built in the last 3 months before the elections. Ruto is counting his chickens much too early.