Ruto formed Jubilee precisely for this.

[Nefertiti]

If Ruto got Nancy fired in first term how is she able to call the shots now? Getting Uhuru to recant the MOU and reform cabinet reporting structure - basically recant 50-50 too - sound like a victory to me. Ruto lost 50-50 to NARAesque quarter mkeka - of course Uhuru can't just fire his guys but has to manage it thro anti-graft witchhunt. As Rotich, Chelugui, etc get shown the door like Echesa - all Ruto boys one by one - it will become clearer about Uhuru stand. Poor Kiunjuri will be sacrificial lamb to maintain the charade it's a genuine fight. I believe Ruto is losing - no, he did not chose to "respect" Uhuru by giving up co-presidency after working superhard to ensure Uhuru win - that's a cheap one.

Sonko capitulated to Uhuru - by stopping his pro-Ruto rants. Have you heard him mention "GEMA are betraying Ruto" since? He of course kept deputy vacant so GEMA+ODM MCAs don't fire him. He is smart to know Ruto has no power to protect him.

Eti Green Movement ? I thought Prof Maathai is dead. Jubilee party - of more than 250 mps and senators - nearly 30 governors and thousands of MCAS - is not going to be easy to dismantle.

Let me help you. In any gov - there is always power struggle - people get hired and fired everyday - to survive you've to be adept. You make one wrong move like Murathe - and you're out.

It cutthroat competition for power and money. Uhuru is at mercy of such competing forces. Each side feed Uhuru with their fitinas and ultimately somebody has to lose.

Ruto has PHD in this - having mastered the game under Moi.

Ruto is facing an resurgence of attack from the same Nancy Gitau-Op - he faced during his first term - and eventually had most of them fired - Nancy and Iringo. Now this new attack from Gitau, Kibicho and his br's Muhoho - Gigiri grp. Their main arsenal is Raila & of course ropping in Uhuru trusted bro - plus interior ministry. Those are pretty powerful tools to have...and Ruto has to contend with that..and I think he has done incredibly well to survive their attacks and turn it around. It helps that Ruto runs a parrellel NIS and the other group are political neophytes. They already failed with Sonko who is playing jujistu moves never seen in Africa - yet to appoint a Deputy Governor. You got to respect Sonko.

Anyway this war will continue and eventually whoever loses - will get buried. I know Nancy-Gitau- have already lost. Jubilee doesn't want their nonsense. GEMA leaders and people don't understand their game.

Yes Ruto may have been damaged by his graft fightback like during the 'local tribunal' but sometimes you don't have any option. Ruto has very good intelligence networks. He knew they were laying a trap for him - just like Raila had laid the waki tribunal trap - and there only way to survive there is to fightback and PR baadaye.  You can always turn the story around like ICC thing.

In short Ruto will emerge the winner because he is political adept, is 10 steps ahead of them with his paralleled intelligence and experience - and has prepared "all" his life for this.

[RV Pundit]

Nancy-Muhoho delivered Raila on the silver platter and got back into the sanctum of power. She made herself useful as Raila-Uhuru go between. Obviously Raila is trojan horse who brought himself in after running out of aces. Ruto didn't see that coming - he probably had called off his people watching nancy after she gave in - and he has had to fight it back from a point of weakness. I don't think Ruto really care about power or money in this period - he knows he is just few steps from PORK - and is super-focussed on that. He will give Uhuru free pass as long as he doesn't move 2022 pieces. Ruto knows once he is PORK - he will pretty much have everything.

Sonko faced a lot of the same - Uhuru and his people - trying to wrestle control from him - and he went rogue. He fired their DG alley, send their statehouse advisor packing and has refused to appoint a replacement. Obviously he might have tried to get Ruto help - only to be told - Ruto was also dealing with same forces - and he figured out rightly - he had to fight it alone. Sonko is in unique position - Raila has lots of support in Nairobi - Uhuru has lots of support in Nairobi - Ruto is really jogoo ya shamba  - except for our small Kalenjin enclave in Highrise Kibera - so I wont blame him.

At end of the day - this is game of wits - btw uber-talented Ruto - and Gigiri group. You know how this will end. Kibicho get fired or transferred - Nancy back to retirement -Muhoho back to running the family business and leaving politics to politicians - Raila back to his ODM - and UhuRuto in 2022 romping home.

If Ruto got Nancy fired in first term how is she able to call the shots now? Getting Uhuru to recant the MOU and reform cabinet reporting structure - basically recant 50-50 too - sound like a victory to me. Ruto lost 50-50 to NARAesque quarter mkeka - of course Uhuru can't just fire his guys but has to manage it thro anti-graft witchhunt. As Rotich, Chelugui, etc get shown the door like Echesa - all Ruto boys one by one - it will become clearer about Uhuru stand. Poor Kiunjuri will be sacrificial lamb to maintain the charade it's a genuine fight. I believe Ruto is losing - no, he did not chose to "respect" Uhuru by giving up co-presidency after working superhard to ensure Uhuru win - that's a cheap one.

Sonko capitulated to Uhuru - by stopping his pro-Ruto rants. Have you heard him mention "GEMA are betraying Ruto" since? He of course kept deputy vacant so GEMA+ODM MCAs don't fire him. He is smart to know Ruto has no power to protect him.

[Nefertiti]

Nancy-Muhoho delivered Raila on the silver platter and gotback into the sanctum of power. She made herself useful.

i.e. she outfoxed Ruto - while you hold she's a political neophyte. She's Uhuru's errand girl and not on her own. No there is no neutral Uhuru surrounded by drama - that's a smart-ish Ruto narrative  - Uhuru is calling all the shots.

Obviously Raila is trojan horse who brought himself in after running out of aces. Ruto didn't see that coming and he has had to fight it back from a point of weakness.

Took you a year to admit this... you really overestimate Ruto and dismiss Raila. The trojan has been very successful - Raila v Ruto ground evened in the blink of an eye. Uhuru-Raila made a pact as far as we can see and hear from Orengos - in another year you can save face and own up again.

I don't think Ruto really care about power or money in this period - he knows he is just few steps from PORK - and is super-focussed on that. He will give Uhuru free pass as long as he doesn't move 2022 pieces. Ruto knows once he is PORK - he will pretty much have everything.

Wrong. Power concede nothing - Ruto just has no choice but to accept that Uhuru has thrown 2022 & 50-50 into the bin with Raila's help. Ruto overplayed his hand during the VAT bill and his weakness in Parliament showed. He is hesitant to go nuclear on graft for the same reason - he will lose badly - Uhuru has all the power and with NASA core has parliament too.

Sonko faced a lot of the same - Uhuru and his people - trying to wrestle control from him - and he went rogue. He fired their DPORK and has refused to appoint a replacement. Obviously he might have tried to get Ruto help - only to be told - Ruto was also dealing with same forces - and he figured out rightly - he had to fight it alone. Sonko is in unique position - Raila has lots of support in Nairobi - Uhuru has lots of support in Nairobi - Ruto is really jogoo ya shamba  - except for our small Kalenjin enclave in Highrise Kibera - so I wont blame him.

I agree Sonko cleverly got away with firing Igathe with impunity.

At end of the day - this is game of wits - btw uber-talented Ruto - and Gigiri group. You know how this will end. Kibicho get fired or transferred - Nancy back to retirement -Muhoho back to running the family business and leaving politics to politicians - Raila back to his ODM - and UhuRuto in 2022 romping home.

This is our main point of departure - Uhuru's intentions - or who between Ruto and Raila is being played. Uhuru is going for Exec PM with Raila as ceremonial 7yr PORK and portraits and bank notes. You can always mock my record. Of course I don't care about Uhuru I just think parliamentary and federal is better for Kenya. Scorning corrupt Ruto is just a bonus.

[RV Pundit]

Explain to me how Raila's Ceremonial PORK and Uhuru's Mtu wa Mkono executive PM in parliament will work. How exactly will that work. You turn from President and Commander in Chief - into Duale? Executive PM under MPs beck and call - doing the donkey work - for the president - who can probably fire the entire government.

Sounds like a joke to me. Uhuru just appointed Matiangi to such position. He has no time or energy to supervise cabinet and respond to abuses from MPs. That is clearly beneath him as former PORK.

Ruto offer to Uhuru - is for him to continue being influential Jubilee Party Leader - who can even sit on cabinet - and for him to pick the DPORK - from his GEMA people - and retire to enjoy life. If he badly wants that Executive PM - I am sure Jubilee will find him something to do - that is not very exacting

[KenyanPlato]

Explain to me how Raila's Ceremonial PORK and Uhuru's Mtu wa Mkono executive PM in parliament will work. How exactly will that work. You turn from President and Commander in Chief - into Duale? Executive PM under MPs beck and call - doing the donkey work - for the president - who can probably fire the entire government.

Sounds like a joke to me. Uhuru just appointed Matiangi to such position. He has no time or energy to supervise cabinet and respond to abuses from MPs. That is clearly beneath him as former PORK.

Ruto offer to Uhuru - is for him to continue being influential Jubilee Party Leader - who can even sit on cabinet - and for him to pick the DPORK - from his GEMA people - and retire to enjoy life. If he badly wants that Executive PM - I am sure Jubilee will find him something to do - that is not very exacting

Kikuyus are looking for a nonkikuyu pork and dpork. Ruto is now what they are looking for. Ruto should work hard to win NASA constituents because he won't get kikuyus

[KenyanPlato]

Kikuyus right now hate uhuru to death. He is in the same category as moi. So ruto clinging on Uhuru will never help his case.

[Nefertiti]

Look at Ethiopia - you are always touting Zenawi here. Do you know their president's name? Federal + parliamentary.

In any event I don't see referendum succeeding - as you said MPs and MCAs won't agree to be sliced. It is a useful tool to consolidate anti-Ruto forces - Raila will have the last laugh - he will promise to fulfill the reforms - fewer MPs, more devolution, gender parity, etc - once Ruto scuttles them. There are no shadowy OP operatives coercing Uhuru to fight Ruto - he has a brain and real interests your boy has threatened. As I noted before there is nothing in the past to indicate that Ruto is trustworthy. He has never wielded power.

Explain to me how Raila's Ceremonial PORK and Uhuru's Mtu wa Mkono executive PM in parliament will work. How exactly will that work. You turn from President and Commander in Chief - into Duale? Executive PM under MPs beck and call - doing the donkey work - for the president - who can probably fire the entire government.

Sounds like a joke to me. Uhuru just appointed Matiangi to such position. He has no time or energy to supervise cabinet and respond to abuses from MPs. That is clearly beneath him as former PORK.

Ruto offer to Uhuru - is for him to continue being influential Jubilee Party Leader - who can even sit on cabinet - and for him to pick the DPORK - from his GEMA people - and retire to enjoy life. If he badly wants that Executive PM - I am sure Jubilee will find him something to do - that is not very exacting

[RV Pundit]

You like jumping all over like a yello that can't be pinned.

It's not rational that Uhuru will accept to undo all his work in jubilee, become Raila's Matiangi just so he can extend power. Uhuru has always been very reluctant - he doesn't need the money and power - this has always been something to keep him busy, sane and avoid drug overdose if you ask me. Leadership is a toy mama ngina bought him.

The reality is whether Uhuru likes it or not - HE IS NOT GOING TO BECOME PORK - again. It over. He has had two terms limits.

He can stick to Jubilee while he still loved and referred  - agree with Ruto on way forward - organize GEMA to pick DPORK and secure their interest -50-50 arrangment - and retain Party Leader - with Ruto as deputy- or go kiss the frog (Raila) where he is loathed.

All it boils down really is who will he trust more. With Ruto - he can be assured of being Influential Party Leader.

With Raila - who knows - last time Ruto made him PM - he immediately conspired to send Ruto to ICC.

As for the referendum - all that is tied - If Uhuru doesn't like the embarrasing PMship under Raila  - it will be stillborn. It will be another OKOA .

If Uhuru wants the referendum - then obviously he will have declared war - and we shall see Ruto response. It won't be good for Uhuru ailing lungs - trust me.

Ruto will probably sponsor a counter-referendum  - and find ideas that will be popular - nobody wants counties touched (MCAs & small tribes will say BIG NO to anyone messing with it) - they simply want money - raised from 15% to say 45%.Transition from presidential "one man suffrage" to parliamentary systems is also near impossible - kenyans will refuse to hand over their power however illusionary to MPs.

PMship and more deputies is quite popular - expanding executive - can be argued - because kenyans wants everyone to feel party of gov.

Look at Ethiopia - you are always touting Zenawi here. Do you know their president's name? Federal + parliamentary.

In any event I don't see referendum succeeding - as you said MPs and MCAs won't agree to be sliced. It is a useful tool to consolidate anti-Ruto forces - Raila will have the last laugh - he will promise to fulfill the reforms - fewer MPs, more devolution, gender parity, etc - once Ruto scuttles them. There are no shadowy OP operatives coercing Uhuru to fight Ruto - he has a brain and real interests your boy has threatened. As I noted before there is nothing in the past to indicate that Ruto is trustworthy. He has never wielded power.

Explain to me how Raila's Ceremonial PORK and Uhuru's Mtu wa Mkono executive PM in parliament will work. How exactly will that work. You turn from President and Commander in Chief - into Duale? Executive PM under MPs beck and call - doing the donkey work - for the president - who can probably fire the entire government.

Sounds like a joke to me. Uhuru just appointed Matiangi to such position. He has no time or energy to supervise cabinet and respond to abuses from MPs. That is clearly beneath him as former PORK.

Ruto offer to Uhuru - is for him to continue being influential Jubilee Party Leader - who can even sit on cabinet - and for him to pick the DPORK - from his GEMA people - and retire to enjoy life. If he badly wants that Executive PM - I am sure Jubilee will find him something to do - that is not very exacting