Maybe 2019 growth will ease but if we are talking 2018 - we are already on last Q technically - and so far I think Q1, Q2 and even Q3 data are solid and above 5% of 2017. Most counties have gone slow but majority have dealt with huge pending bills which last governors had accrued. Yes manufacturing is in trouble - and so is real estate - but I think for both it's a lull before the BIG 4 storm. Real estate will pick up next year once this budget is passed and gov begin on massive housing construction.
I think for now the gov has basically hit the tax limit. It need to re-start privatization and that start with replacing Rotich with someone like Kimunya who knows how to sell stuff. The next budget should be heavy on gov selling National Oil, Safaricom and many of big shares that can generate serious cash for development.
For a long time our private sector has been the only engine for growth - we cannot extinguish the public sector investment now - we need both moving - and as far as private sector goes - credit squeeze is the mainly problem that gov has to figure out.
With all the headwinds the economy will grow by 6%? How'll government spend more when clearly most of gov. revenue is being scooped up by debt repayment and recurrent expenses? Development budget is being slashed https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/counties-hit-hard-by-Sh55bn-budget-cut/3946234-4766302-cpbhg0z/index.html . Agriculture will marginally expand but can't make up for manufacturing,real estate, trade and services downturns. Tourism will do well due to increased security and cheap KES. To get about 6% growth the PMI index should be about 60 not 55 https://tradingeconomics.com/kenya/manufacturing-pmi . I'll bet next PMI will be lower than 55.
Topic: Economy Watch - NSE, public expenditure cuts (Read 2283 times)