Yes we do not need the blood IMF standby facility and their stupid conditions.

[RV Pundit]

You just latched onto something you never knew before today. Go back to 2016 and see who hawked what. This facility is nice-to-have if we have to deal with exogenous risk (US treasury messing up everyone) but we have not needed it. We have not borrowed the money. IMF hawked this facilty to us and now they are demanding impossible conditions to keep it. Typical IMF. I say we tell them to f.off with their standby facility.

Pundit will blame the ethnicity of the author, not on the stubbornness of the facts. Who is the hawker and the borrower in this Nation story?

IMF gives Kenya 6-month standby loan extension
THURSDAY MARCH 15 2018
By NEVILLE OTUKI
More by this Author
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved Kenya made a request for extension of the loan to IMF officials who came visiting in Nairobi early this month.

IMF approved the $1.5 billion credit line on March 14, 2016 for a period of 24 months, as precautionary facility that Kenya could draw should the economy be in distress.

[RV Pundit]

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=584030442&Country=Kenya&topic=Economy&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=External+sector&u=1&pid=621583646&oid=621583646

[gout]

Seems the amnesty on stolen money which had been stashed abroad is working. When Uhuru friends at State House start speaking cockily, they are likely talking of Eurbond dollars.

[MOON Ki]

The likes of South Korea grew by doing the opposite of whatever IMF & WB prescribed.

You might want to do a bit more homework on South Korea's economic history and the country's relationships with the IMF and World Bank.   In fact, just two decades ago, South Korea was bailed out by the very type of Standby Credit Facility that we are discussing here and had to swallow plenty of bitter medicine from the IMF.    The accompanying reforms, many quite deep-reaching, were exactly what the country needed and they have worked.   
And the World Bank joined the IMF in pouring down the medicine.

Start here on the homework:   http://www.koreanlii.or.kr/w/index.php/IMF_Crisis?ckattempt=1

[patel]

Thanks Moon Ki  for schooling resident Baghdad  bob.....its always refreshing  to read inputs from people who have deep insight and understanding of issues.

[RV Pundit]

Youre talking the period korea was already developed and could entertain imf nonsense.Asian tigers grew in 60s,70s,80s and 90s by doing opposite of nearly every imf recommendation.Imf ideas are relecant to korea now not kenya.Policy experimentation like mpesa is what we need to pursue..not listen to old theories from imf.Imf $ wb are evil institution controlled by usa and eu..they will not allow reforms or change in shareholding..more like the un..and all they do is throw the ladder that us and eu used down.Do the opposite of what they say.If they say open up the market..close it.if they say raise fuel taxes..lower it.if they say remove rate cap..cap it more.economics like any social science is doggy science..you need to experiment and see it what works for you.its not natural science. If certain policy fails in 5yrs..drop it and try something else.Dont listen to imf smart alec who told us to drop social services,fire civil servants and all nonsense.

The likes of South Korea grew by doing the opposite of whatever IMF & WB prescribed.

You might want to do a bit more homework on South Korea's economic history and the country's relationships with the IMF and World Bank.   In fact, just two decades ago, South Korea was bailed out by the very type of Standby Credit Facility that we are discussing here and had to swallow plenty of bitter medicine from the IMF.    The accompanying reforms, many quite deep-reaching, were exactly what the country needed and they have worked.   
And the World Bank joined the IMF in pouring down the medicine.

Start here on the homework:   http://www.koreanlii.or.kr/w/index.php/IMF_Crisis?ckattempt=1

[RV Pundit]

Imf not ngeny fired you from telkoms.They hired leakey to fire civil servants across board to save cost.A moronic idea

Thanks Moon Ki  for schooling resident Baghdad  bob.....its always refreshing  to read inputs from people who have deep insight and understanding of issues.

[patel]

Watch your tone...only stated facts
Tells us again how kenya debt/GDP ratio is better than  Japan or USA? why we need to borrow more and invest in SGR? Debts have to be paid...upende usipende

Imf not ngeny fired you from telkoms.They hired leakey to fire civil servants across board to save cost.A moronic idea

Thanks Moon Ki  for schooling resident Baghdad  bob.....its always refreshing  to read inputs from people who have deep insight and understanding of issues.

[MOON Ki]

Youre talking the period korea was already developed and could entertain imf nonsense.Asian tigers grew in 60s,70s,80s and 90s by doing opposite of nearly every imf recommendation.Imf ideas are relecant to korea now not kenya.

I was actually living in South Korea at the time, and my recollection of the economic situation at the time and what preceded it are somewhat different from yours.    And I had good reason to have a keen understanding of such things: my livelihood depended on it.

I just asked one of my Korean colleagues how he would respond to your statement that "korea was already developed and could entertain imf nonsense".  His response was that if you said that to him, and he'd had a few drinks, he'd probably punch you in the face.    If that seems like an extreme response, perhaps the following will give you some idea of what happened in the "developed country" that was willing to "entertain IMF nonsense":

https://www.koreaexpose.com/imf-economy-south-korea-asian-financial-crisis/

The article is from last year; it is still a sore and painful part of South Korean history.   And I can't imagine any Korean who lived through it blithely saying "we got where we are/were by ignoring advice from the IMF and World Bank".   In fact, the matter is very much alive right now: Moon, in his first budget referred to the period as "the dark days ... that upended the lives of all Koreans".  And he wants to do something about it .... oh, one his pet peeves is the sort of inequality that even Kenya has more of than South Korea. 

Of course, it is entirely possible that you have a better understanding of what happened ...  how the country's economy developed, what advice should have been taken, etc. etc. etc.   But those of us who lived through it, reflected on how things got there and still constantly reflect on that with a view to the future ... well, we take a somewhat different view.  Perhaps you, with your expertise on such matters, have some good advice for Moon?

Still, if the path forward for Kenya is to ignore IMF and World Bank "nonsense", then why not.   I won't argue with you over that.  But I am not the person who needs to hear it; try Rotich, Patrick Njoroge, et al.  Maybe they will see your point: why have car insurance, or health insurance, or home insurance, or any kind of insurance if things are just fine.   Right?

But even if your "theory" is correct---and the thing to do is to ignore "IMF and World Bank nonsense"---there are other things that matter.   Strategy, planning, and, most important [/b] execution[/b].  And leadership.

Kenya could start by having the ability to consistently feed itself without begging; that requires leadership and execution that would do away with jokes like the "Galana 1-million-acres".   (To the rest of the world, it seems might peculiar that people who can barely feed themselves should also insist on "we know how .... ")  After that, it could then get to the Lego-Land "Silicon Savanah"  and that sort of stuff.   Speaking of which ... do you know how long it would take---and would have taken even, say, 40 years ago---for South Koreans to put up that sort of thing?  .pdf files on tablets as fuel for the next generation of tech-savvy Kenyans!  Manufacturing to go from 9.2% of GDP to 22% in just 4 years!    Kalongolongo Big 4 time.
 

[RV Pundit]

Long diatribe. US just had one of the worst economic crisis recently that had ripple effect globally.US was and is still a developed country. Asian financial crisis affected the asian tigers when they had developed. That sort of "correction" happened after four decades of growth. When did South Korea grow - 60s,70s,80s, 90s and when did the Asian Financial Crisis happened the end of that period. How did South Korea and Asian tigers grow by doing the opposite of whatever IMF & WB was recommending. When they told them to open their markets for competition - they double down protectionism. When they told them to focus on import-substitution - they focused instead on export driven manufacturing. When they told them to cut down on social spending - including for education - they went ahead to increase social spending - like universal schooling and health care. When IMF told them cut debts & public investment in infrastructure - they increase took more debts and financed their infrastructure.

Kenya has been doing the last 15yrs by mostly ignoring IMF. Kibaki ignored IMF and started free primary education. IMF said we couldn't finance it. They don't like us taking more chinese debts - so they gave us a trojan horse in a standby facility - and now they are back - trying to control our economics.Kenya is doing well - like South Korea that grew at 7% in 60-90s - we are consistently now growing at nearly 6% - and we just need to continue public investment to make it 7% and grow it consistently for another 20 years - and we will get where South Korea got - we are investing hugely in social spending, infrastructure and building institutions...and we are seeing poverty dropping from highs of 60s to 30s (%)..

Why has IMF gotten it so wrong so many times yet it hires the best brains? You've got to understand IMF & WB for what they are. US and Western Europe tools. Tools to control and dominate the world post WW2. US and Western Europe refuses reforms at UN, IMF & WB - they refuse to expand shareholding - they refuse to allow injection of new capital - and the smart fellows like China & BRICS have gone ahead to form their own banks. Asia has done their own Asia Dev Bank. Africa has it's Africa Dev Bank which is kicking arse and financing huge projects around.

I say we do not need US puppets with little money telling us shiet. They can take their 1.5B standby dollars and shove it up trump arse. We should not add VAT on fuel or cut back on our spending or remove rate capping just to please IMF.

Youre talking the period korea was already developed and could entertain imf nonsense.Asian tigers grew in 60s,70s,80s and 90s by doing opposite of nearly every imf recommendation.Imf ideas are relecant to korea now not kenya.

I was actually living in South Korea at the time, and my recollection of the economic situation at the time and what preceded it are somewhat different from yours.    And I had good reason to have a keen understanding of such things: my livelihood depended on it.

I just asked one of my Korean colleagues how he would respond to your statement that "korea was already developed and could entertain imf nonsense".  His response was that if you said that to him, and he'd had a few drinks, he'd probably punch you in the face.    If that seems like an extreme response, perhaps the following will give you some idea of what happened in the "developed country" that was willing to "entertain IMF nonsense":

https://www.koreaexpose.com/imf-economy-south-korea-asian-financial-crisis/

The article is from last year; it is still a sore and painful part of South Korean history.   And I can't imagine any Korean who lived through it blithely saying "we got where we are/were by ignoring advice from the IMF and World Bank".   In fact, the matter is very much alive right now: Moon, in his first budget referred to the period as "the dark days ... that upended the lives of all Koreans".  And he wants to do something about it .... oh, one his pet peeves is the sort of inequality that even Kenya has more of than South Korea. 

Of course, it is entirely possible that you have a better understanding of what happened ...  how the country's economy developed, what advice should have been taken, etc. etc. etc.   But those of us who lived through it, reflected on how things got there and still constantly reflect on that with a view to the future ... well, we take a somewhat different view.  Perhaps you, with your expertise on such matters, have some good advice for Moon?

Still, if the path forward for Kenya is to ignore IMF and World Bank "nonsense", then why not.   I won't argue with you over that.  But I am not the person who needs to hear it; try Rotich, Patrick Njoroge, et al.  Maybe they will see your point: why have car insurance, or health insurance, or home insurance, or any kind of insurance if things are just fine.   Right?

But even if your "theory" is correct---and the thing to do is to ignore "IMF and World Bank nonsense"---there are other things that matter.   Strategy, planning, and, most important [/b] execution[/b].  And leadership.

Kenya could start by having the ability to consistently feed itself without begging; that requires leadership and execution that would do away with jokes like the "Galana 1-million-acres".   (To the rest of the world, it seems might peculiar that people who can barely feed themselves should also insist on "we know how .... ")  After that, it could then get to the Lego-Land "Silicon Savanah"  and that sort of stuff.   Speaking of which ... do you know how long it would take---and would have taken even, say, 40 years ago---for South Koreans to put up that sort of thing?  .pdf files on tablets as fuel for the next generation of tech-savvy Kenyans!  Manufacturing to go from 9.2% of GDP to 22% in just 4 years!    Kalongolongo Big 4 time.
 

[MOON Ki]

I know it's Mission Impossible with you, so I will stick to a few words. 

Long diatribe. US just had one of the worst economic crisis recently that had ripple effect globally.US was and is still a developed country. Asian financial crisis affected the asian tigers when they had developed.

So?  Who said that a crisis, of any sort, can't occur after a country is developed?   What I really picked up on at the start was this: "korea was already developed and could entertain imf nonsense".   Is it your belief that at the time Korea was "developed" and "could entertain .."?   As much as we here respect your expertise, I'll go with the Korean opinions on that one.   

Most of what you reproduce is a matter of interpretation by those who want to see things as they wish they were, rather than as they actually are.   A little, but not uncommon, story:

Doctor:   Slow down there, buddy.  You could ruin your health.  STDs etc.
Guy:  I'm on a roll, Doc.   Later for you!

..... <much later> ....

Guy: Doc! Doc!  My thing is falling off!
Doctor:  No kidding.   Well, that was the whole point about the meds and so on.
Pundit: Yes, his dick fell off.  And, yes, he is permanently traumatized.   But think of how many good fucks he had before that!

When did South Korea grow - 60s,70s,80s, 90s and when did the Asian Financial Crisis happened the end of that period.

I'm unclear as to what you mean by "when did South Korea grow?".   Perhaps you could give me your views on its growth before the crisis and after the crisis, by way of specifying the "when"?

How did South Korea and Asian tigers grow by doing the opposite of whatever IMF & WB was recommending. When they told them to open their markets for competition - they double down protectionism. When they told them to focus on import-substitution - they focused instead on export driven manufacturing. When they told them to cut down on social spending - including for education - they went ahead to increase social spending - like universal schooling and health care. When IMF told them cut debts & public investment in infrastructure - they increase took more debts and financed their infrastructure.

You are painting a blanket picture of a whole bunch of advice given to a fairly broad region.  As I see it, from the Seoul point of view, some of that advice---whatever it was, should have been taken--and that debate has just been revived.   But we need not dwell on that right now.  Perhaps we can take it small-small.  Home-style.   How about we do it one small question at a time?

Small Question #1: Yes, the Asian Tigers have done very well from export-driven manufacturing.  So has places like China.   My first question is this: how is Kenya doing in any kind of manufacturing, let alone export-driven manufacturing, and what are the prospects for change?  Kenya's current grand plan is that manufacturing will be 20% of GDP y 2020?  How? No. it won;t do to just say "look over there!. they did x, y, and z in Asia!

We'll proceed once some of these Grand Plans are clear.  Ignore the Nasty Outsiders, pick any one of the BIG 4, and tell us about Milk & Honey.

[gout]

Treasury benefiting from the interest rates cap. Why should it want otherwise?

Commercial banks say they will continue lending to the government at the expense of businesses and individuals if legislators make good their threat to shoot down the proposed removal of interest caps, bosses of two leading lenders have warned.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Banks-play-hardball-in-push-against-rate-cap/4003102-4715830-13gkac8z/index.html

[vooke]

Treasury benefiting from the interest rates cap. Why should it want otherwise?

Commercial banks say they will continue lending to the government at the expense of businesses and individuals if legislators make good their threat to shoot down the proposed removal of interest caps, bosses of two leading lenders have warned.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Banks-play-hardball-in-push-against-rate-cap/4003102-4715830-13gkac8z/index.html

My theory was that the capping was Jubilee managing their interest expenses by forcing Banks to lend to them dirt cheap.

[hk]

Treasury benefiting from the interest rates cap. Why should it want otherwise?

Commercial banks say they will continue lending to the government at the expense of businesses and individuals if legislators make good their threat to shoot down the proposed removal of interest caps, bosses of two leading lenders have warned.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Banks-play-hardball-in-push-against-rate-cap/4003102-4715830-13gkac8z/index.html

My theory was that the capping was Jubilee managing their interest expenses by forcing Banks to lend to them dirt cheap.

That's the unintended consequences of capping the rates. There are some projections that government rates on Tbills would have already escalated to 20% forcing the government to stop borrowing. So the banks are making easy money from lending to government at the expense of the private sector.   

[RV Pundit]

First we are not in any financial crisis to require IMF intervention. We just need some standby facility although we have twice the forex we need and IMF are using this as an excuse to push really unworkable ideas like cutting deficit, allowing banks free reign and finally adding VAT to fuel. Trust me none of Asian tigers would have accepted these conditions - banks have to be heavily regulated, we cannot talk deficit (small budget) when we should be ambitiously spending, we cannot add make our fuel any more expensive.  Therefore in my view this opportunity to tell IMF to go f. themselves.

Now that is done and settled. Let talks of Big 4. In my view the 2 of big 4 are achievable. Universal health care - meaning everyone getting covered by NHIF is the lowest hanging fruit. Housing - building 0.5M cheap housing unit is something chinese can do for us in a yr...we just need to sign along the dotted the lines.

The difficult ones are manufacturing and food security. Kulana despite the best Isreali tech simply doesn't have water needed for irrigation. Kenya generally lies on water deficit region and we will always struggle to feed ourselves....only 20% of kenya is arable..with about 10% being high potential. The food insecurity in ASAL region is going to be hard to tackle...countries like Uganda or TZ have easy task here.

Manufacturing - tough one for everyone - with Chinas's industrial overcapacity - but we can borrow lessons from Ethiopia.

I know it's Mission Impossible with you, so I will stick to a few words. 

Long diatribe. US just had one of the worst economic crisis recently that had ripple effect globally.US was and is still a developed country. Asian financial crisis affected the asian tigers when they had developed.

So?  Who said that a crisis, of any sort, can't occur after a country is developed?   What I really picked up on at the start was this: "korea was already developed and could entertain imf nonsense".   Is it your belief that at the time Korea was "developed" and "could entertain .."?   As much as we here respect your expertise, I'll go with the Korean opinions on that one.   

Most of what you reproduce is a matter of interpretation by those who want to see things as they wish they were, rather than as they actually are.   A little, but not uncommon, story:

Doctor:   Slow down there, buddy.  You could ruin your health.  STDs etc.
Guy:  I'm on a roll, Doc.   Later for you!

..... <much later> ....

Guy: Doc! Doc!  My thing is falling off!
Doctor:  No kidding.   Well, that was the whole point about the meds and so on.
Pundit: Yes, his dick fell off.  And, yes, he is permanently traumatized.   But think of how many good fucks he had before that!

When did South Korea grow - 60s,70s,80s, 90s and when did the Asian Financial Crisis happened the end of that period.

I'm unclear as to what you mean by "when did South Korea grow?".   Perhaps you could give me your views on its growth before the crisis and after the crisis, by way of specifying the "when"?

How did South Korea and Asian tigers grow by doing the opposite of whatever IMF & WB was recommending. When they told them to open their markets for competition - they double down protectionism. When they told them to focus on import-substitution - they focused instead on export driven manufacturing. When they told them to cut down on social spending - including for education - they went ahead to increase social spending - like universal schooling and health care. When IMF told them cut debts & public investment in infrastructure - they increase took more debts and financed their infrastructure.

You are painting a blanket picture of a whole bunch of advice given to a fairly broad region.  As I see it, from the Seoul point of view, some of that advice---whatever it was, should have been taken--and that debate has just been revived.   But we need not dwell on that right now.  Perhaps we can take it small-small.  Home-style.   How about we do it one small question at a time?

Small Question #1: Yes, the Asian Tigers have done very well from export-driven manufacturing.  So has places like China.   My first question is this: how is Kenya doing in any kind of manufacturing, let alone export-driven manufacturing, and what are the prospects for change?  Kenya's current grand plan is that manufacturing will be 20% of GDP y 2020?  How? No. it won;t do to just say "look over there!. they did x, y, and z in Asia!

We'll proceed once some of these Grand Plans are clear.  Ignore the Nasty Outsiders, pick any one of the BIG 4, and tell us about Milk & Honey.

[vooke]