Uhuru is livid

[Omollo]

They made a deal so why can't they just keep to it? This habit and history of reneging on promises is annoying

1. MoU with Raila
2. MoU with Ngilu and Wamalwa
3. MoU with Kalonzo
4. MoU with Awori
5. MoU with Ruto

The list is long and all ends in deception. Someone should hold them to account

[Dear Mami]

It given there will be tribal clashes btw kikuyu and Kalenjin if Uhuru was to sabotage Ruto 2022 plan. There is really no need to incite anybody. It is the question of what will trigger the violence. And perhaps when - and I don't see it being resolved easily - it will be another long period before trust can be re-built - so those areas of rift valley which are cosmopolitan will be facing long periods of tensions, fighting and tribal re-alignments. I believe both sides knows this. Uhuru himself will be to blame. Not sudi.

What about non-Kikuyus in RV? If I were a non Kalenjin resident here, Gema or not, Id seriously consider relocating. I had relatives of mine affected in 2007. They left Kericho and Eldoret and Kitale. Those in Eldoret and Kitale it was just a short thing they soon returned but the ones in Kericho moved permanently to Kisii and Nairobi and have never returned. I hope this PEV stuff is just bluff. People start things like this thinking they can control how it develops but you never know what will happen. Remember Syra just began as some protest that was violently crushed. Now its hell on earth.

[RV Pundit]

I think you and many others don't understand the underlying issues. Imagine if Mzungu had grabbed Kisii land, displaced people living there, and when they left, the new leader a Kalenjin, resettle Kalenjin in Kisii and other tribes.  The people of Kisii do not need to be incited. It's questions of an opportunity presenting himself. That is what RV & Coast people see the new settlers - about 1M new people moved to rift valley in 1960s - they see them more as occupiers.

Politics is an excuse. As a dispassionate pundit, let me help you with what will happen, if UhuRuto disagree, Kikuyus & Kalenjin will disagree, Kalenjin will start harrasing kikuyus in RV, it will simmer for sometime, until a trigger (say Uhuru fires a Kalenjin minister) or say Jubilee split or say Uhuru arrest Sudi or something like that, then it will escalates, and the big one is of course in 2022 - if there will be rigging or such games - then it will be huge fires.

2007 - I was there - it wasn't "serious" - Kalenjin were mostly responding to help Luos - who were getting massacred - and secondly eviction was the main target  - that is why you had 1K dead ad 600K evicted - it wasn't about killing because Kibaki had not killed Kalenjin. I think it became about Killing when Kericho MP was killed..but generally it was mostly to evict kikuyus.

On day 2 in most places - after evicting kikuyus - there was nothing to do and people started going for gusiis. I'd say Kalenjin will evict everyone on "their" land if there was to be war unless they were fighting on the same war. Gusii are un-luckly because the are neither here or there.

What about non-Kikuyus in RV? If I were a non Kalenjin resident here, Gema or not, Id seriously consider relocating. I had relatives of mine affected in 2007. They left Kericho and Eldoret and Kitale. Those in Eldoret and Kitale it was just a short thing they soon returned but the ones in Kericho moved permanently to Kisii and Nairobi and have never returned. I hope this PEV stuff is just bluff. People start things like this thinking they can control how it develops but you never know what will happen. Remember Syra just began as some protest that was violently crushed. Now its hell on earth.

[Omollo]

Kenyatta seized the land belong to mau mau supporters and those who had been evicted by Mzungu. He refused to restore the land to them but offered to "settle" them in Rift Valley on land that the Mzungu had stolen from the Maa, Nandi, Kipsigis and Pokot (etc)

Most of the theft, especially of Kipsigis and nandi land is well documented through public notices and deceptive "treaties".

It is an issue that Uhuru was charged to stop when he came to power. The Kenyatta family is the genesis of the land clashes and other problems in the Rift Valley. Their greed for land has led to the demographic alteration of some parts of Kenya. For example Mpeketoni is an overture to the eventual "annexation" of Lamu. We have Rongai and Kajiado now completely take over.

So these grievances are genuine and deep. They are widespread.

[RV Pundit]

But people prefer to look for "inciter" to blame..there is really no need to incite ..it more of what will trigger...and fallout like UhuRuto knowing the context...would be seen as ultimate betrayal of Kalenjin by another Kenyatta..and would results in a backlash..that will be blame on Sudis.

Kenyatta seized the land belong to mau mau supporters and those who had been evicted by Mzungu. He refused to restore the land to them but offered to "settle" them in Rift Valley on land that the Mzungu had stolen from the Maa, Nandi, Kipsigis and Pokot (etc)

Most of the theft, especially of Kipsigis and nandi land is well documented through public notices and deceptive "treaties".

It is an issue that Uhuru was charged to stop when he came to power. The Kenyatta family is the genesis of the land clashes and other problems in the Rift Valley. Their greed for land has led to the demographic alteration of some parts of Kenya. For example Mpeketoni is an overture to the eventual "annexation" of Lamu. We have Rongai and Kajiado now completely take over.

So these grievances are genuine and deep. They are widespread.

[Omollo]

But people prefer to look for "inciter" to blame..there is really no need to incite ..it more of what will trigger...and fallout like UhuRuto knowing the context...would be seen as ultimate betrayal of Kalenjin by another Kenyatta..and would results in a backlash..that will be blame on Sudis.

First let's get one thing clear: There is a fallout. Like I predicted a few days ago, RV MPs met and after a marathon 5 hours released a statement saying they support the government in which they are. That is telling.

My count shows that Ruto has enough MPs to amend those parts of the constitution that require no referendum. He has as of now checkmated Uhuru Kenyatta.
 
On the Inciters issue:

I would agree with you and say there is no need to "incite". The anger against GEMA is barely under the surface and it is simmering. The best analogy I use when asked about it is "covering hot magma with banana leaves" and thinking all is well. Let me give you a brief overview:

Rift Valley is Hawaiian molten rock which has been suppressed under GEMA and successive governments' banana leaves for too long.

The discontent and anger against GEMA is national.

In terms of land, we have issues at the coast from Kwale to Tana River. I recently discovered that most of NEP land is "owned" by Kikuyus who obtained title deeds in the 60s. That has rendered 80% of NEP citizens landless.

The targeted killings in Nyanza and Western have lost GEMA any sympathies.

I mean now that they have alienated the only group of people that was willing to sympathize with them at least out of selfish political interests, GEMA has really no refuge.

[Nefertiti]

Omollo your deep hatred for the Kikuyu is back. Like you advised hk,  perhaps you should stick to your group's corner. Raila is really smiling as the trojan works wonders. I think he's waiting for the competing offers but is presently with GEMA. Should he join the Non-GEMA "comrade" who's raided his constituency or stick with the treacherous group?

[Omollo]

Omollo your deep hatred for the Kikuyu is back. Like you advised hk,  perhaps you should stick to your group's corner. Raila is really smiling as the trojan works wonders. I think he's waiting for the competing offers but is presently with GEMA. Should he join the Non-GEMA "comrade" who's raided his constituency or stick with the treacherous group?

Robina

I have no hatred for Kikuyus. My position is no different that of many liberal Kikuyus and man Kalenjins. In fact my position has widespread support in Kenya.

You are the people who will always lag behind. I respect Pundit for one thing: He is not shy to call a spade what it is.

Years ago, it was even a crime to mention the word Kikuyu or Luo or any tribe by name. Moi's propaganda machinery which was a continuation of the Kenyatta Draconian Regime had indoctrinated many of you to fear your heritage. You ignored the fact that the Kibaki government was based on tribalism and all decision it took were in the interests of Kikuyus. Later PEV would prove that the ordinary man of the street agreed more with me (and Pundit) than your fine wine drinking types speaking dead language.

I am glad we managed to get the truth out and mainstreamed it. Nowadays I can read on Twitter many of the things I suffered suspensions and expulsions from different fora for simply exercising my freedom of speech / expression.

About Raila: I think he really has no clue what is going on. He is determined to alter Kenya and to that end he has abandoned politics. It is after all true that age changes people. He has become a Mandela like figure. Being nice to everybody. We are waiting for the Hollywood types to turn up and take photos with him.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It given there will be tribal clashes btw kikuyu and Kalenjin if Uhuru was to sabotage Ruto 2022 plan. There is really no need to incite anybody. It is the question of what will trigger the violence. And perhaps when - and I don't see it being resolved easily - it will be another long period before trust can be re-built - so those areas of rift valley which are cosmopolitan will be facing long periods of tensions, fighting and tribal re-alignments. I believe both sides knows this. Uhuru himself will be to blame. Not sudi.

Uhuru will get the blame for triggering it and for not doing enough to protect lives & property of people. If he plans to disagree with Ruto (and Kalenjin by extension); then he ought to put in place very robust measures that can mitigate that inevietable violence.

Kalenjin blames his father for re-settling "foreigners" in their land - a resettlement they opposed ab-initio - and here will be another Kenyatta giving them a middle finger after they voted for him 3 times. Ohoo boy that will be a huge disaster for many years.

I don't buy the notion that Kalenjin are like some wild animal that operates on raw instincts.  There is always someone responsible.  People are moved and transported to scenes of crimes by the agency of those with the means to do so.

[RV Pundit]

Kibaki had his people on ground - NIS/CID/DCS/name them - people mostly walk to the "war" zone and they use crude weapons. I don't know what mobilization is required to make people to walk and carry bows & arrows. Yes there are few politicians and rich people who will lessen the pain of walking by offering their lorries - when proper "war" begin - but their role is not critical - people who arrive at war scene - will generally walk and carry crude weapon. The majority are unschooled and unwashed - just getting an opportunity to practise what they learn in circumcision training and mostly to steal.

I don't buy the notion that Kalenjin are like some wild animal that operates on raw instincts.  There is always someone responsible.  People are moved and transported to scenes of crimes by the agency of those with the means to do so.

[Omollo]

There is nothing genius here Termie:

Do not underestimate the anger against Uhuru and his people. I however do not by the sponteinty line. I think there are people like Mandago and Sudi who will give a signal and deny it.

Will people be killed? Probably later. I think Ruto's aim would be to pile pressure on Uhuru by forcing him to cater for millions of his own people displaced in RV. It will be very easy to do it actually. As it is there is not a single Kikuyu in RV who isn't counting down to that day when he would have to flee.

People stay where they live when assured of security. Remove that and replace it with an uncertain threat and they can no longer take chances. Leaflets alone have been known to move people. During elections Luhyas and Luos desert Nairobi, Mombasa and so on (where they have registered to vote!).

What Pundit is telling you is simple enough: You remove security guarantees and you wont have enough policemen to guard every home or escort kids to schools.

When it comes to real war - i.e. the exchange of fire with armed loyal troops, you get a completely new dynamic. Kenya does not have a national force. It is an losely amalgamated mix of tribesmen. Would Uhuru send Kikuyu policemen / GSU to RV to kill or would he send Kalenjin soldiers? Who is loyal to what?

I believe Ruto has virtually compromised the entire NIS and Provincial Administration in many parts of the county. If Njonjo could do it without money, how about Ruto who knows everyone's price.
 

[Nefertiti]

PEV is a good card - a strong bluff but just that. It's like threatening your debtor. If well played he pays. If you kill him,  you lose the money and face possible legal and other consequences.

I didn't mean Omollo should not debate the national Kikuyuphobia. Just avoid Punditesque irrationale when it comes to Ruto. It's a plain fact the Kikuyu diaspora would suffer in any clashes. 92, 97, 07/8. What's less obvious is the outcome. What did the last PEV do to Uhuru, Ruto and Raila's alliances and careers? 2007 Kibaki fool brazenly cheated - what do you tell mzungu now? They're unlikely to support our man in 2022 so we kill them? Unless you mean Uhuru/GEMA will need to rig in 2022 which is a B-I-G likely wrong assumption.

Any number of scenarios could play out by 2022. Pundit may find himself yet again praising "Gentleman Uhuru" [sic].

About Kikuyuphobia and politics, recall 2002 and 2013. See you in 2022.

[RV Pundit]

Why can't you argue your case without always seeking to pyscho-analyse me?

PEV is a good card - a strong bluff but just that. It's like threatening your debtor. If well played he pays. If you kill him,  you lose the money and face possible legal and other consequences.

I didn't mean Omollo should not debate the national Kikuyuphobia. Just avoid Punditesque irrationale when it comes to Ruto. It's a plain fact the Kikuyu diaspora would suffer in any clashes. 92, 97, 07/8. What's less obvious is the outcome. What did the last PEV do to Uhuru, Ruto and Raila's alliances and careers? 2007 Kibaki fool brazenly cheated - what do you tell mzungu now? They're unlikely to support our man in 2022 so we kill them? Unless you mean Uhuru/GEMA will need to rig in 2022 which is a B-I-G likely wrong assumption.

Any number of scenarios could play out by 2022. Pundit may find himself yet again praising "Gentleman Uhuru" [sic].

About Kikuyuphobia and politics, recall 2002 and 2013. See you in 2022.

[Omollo]

Robina

When you end up having all the names of places in Siaya changed to New Kiambu and you fail to buy sugar in your local market unless you ask for it in Gikuyu, you will have some understanding for the Kalenjin.

Migration within the country should be free for all not one-sided. We had Kenyatta ignore the fact that RV land was stolen from Kalenjins by Mzungu. He settled Kikuyus on that land in large numbers to the extent of permanently altering the demographic structure of the Rift Valley.

His son has refused to implement the constitution which should recognize and restore ancestral land to the rightful communities. He has used the occasion to expand his family land holdings by buying off more mzungus in RV.

This has happened while Central has been SEALED by hook and crook to all settlement.

I have great sympathy for the Maa and Nandi - two groups that lost most of their land to chauvinistic ethnic Kikuyu expansionism led by Paramount Chief Jomo Kenyatta.