SGR doing so well so far...

[RV Pundit]

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https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Firm-plans-16-more-SGR-cargo-trains/3946234-4626926-133ucj6z/index.html

[hk]

Building is one thing, addressing demand to recoup investment is another.  The SGR was suppose to have 1.5% GDP increment on economy that hasn't materialized yet. Economic growth driven by public investment only always runs to debt headwind or crowding of private sector. Ethiopia is and zambia might be cautionary tale https://www.theeastafricanreview.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/#.Wy6ErwYGVGw.twitter

[RV Pundit]

SGR contributes 1.5% during construction - and that is part of economic growth driven by public investment. Now you have SGR delivering containers to Nairobi at 30K - from high of 100k - on the same day - and this is just phase 1 - so already those efficiency savings will help us. Our situation is far from Ethiopia & Zambia - we inherited a strong private sector from the Brits and have build on it. Where we are struggling in private sector is transition of formal sector to SMES - mostly due to lack of funding for SMEs.

Building is one thing, addressing demand to recoup investment is another.  The SGR was suppose to have 1.5% GDP increment on economy that hasn't materialized yet. Economic growth driven by public investment only always runs to debt headwind or crowding of private sector. Ethiopia is and zambia might be cautionary tale https://www.theeastafricanreview.info/op-eds/2018/06/23/a-question-of-power-why-ethiopias-economic-transformation-is-a-cautionary-african-tale/#.Wy6ErwYGVGw.twitter

[Globalcitizen12]

Pundit,
Can you download Kenya railways balance sheet and may be ask the two thieves to table the loan prospectus from China. Uhuru should make this debt and tendering details public. Where is the 3 percent growth you touted here for 6 years? How has the laptops transformer's education..everyday I am starting to think you have put your decent brain in your arse. A tribalist like you is start to parrot nonssense I would expect from okoth in the other place..

[RV Pundit]

You can argue without being unnecessarily vulgar. Now as far as I know KR - will and ought to repay this loan - public/treasury is only the guarantor to the loan but expectation is the rail will pay for itself - China are running the rail for 5yrs and they are telling us they are hoping to achieve 10M cargo 3yrs ahead of schedule. As far as economic growth from construction phase - there is nothing to argue about - that is simple maths - SGR has added anything 100B annually - since it began construction - and by next year - we should be in Naivasha.That is hardest part of SGR - the next phase to Kisumu & Malaba will be easy stuff and Museveni can get it snaking it's way to Kampala & Rwanda in no time - leading to more integration. That i remind you is OUR GREATEST EVER INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT since the Brits made the gamble with old rail - and that rail has paid off - that rail corridor remain kenya engine of growth.

Once we are done with SGR - we will realize the rail is not enough for the kind of output we will be dealing with - and soon we will have to upgrade the lunatic express line - rebuild all the rail network all over - and eventually get LAPSSET kicking.

As far as Kenya school digital literacy prog - that is on course - they got 12B more this year - and investment in education is long term - we can expect to see the results next generation -15-20yrs from now.Estonia did it in 90s and everyone laughed at them.....but nobody is laughing now...they are skyping using Estonian tech. These kids are going to dominate KONZA TECNO city in 15-20yrs - so that is good long term planning and investment.

Pundit,
Can you download Kenya railways balance sheet and may be ask the two thieves to table the loan prospectus from China. Uhuru should make this debt and tendering details public. Where is the 3 percent growth you touted here for 6 years? How has the laptops transformer's education..everyday I am starting to think you have put your decent brain in your arse. A tribalist like you is start to parrot nonssense I would expect from okoth in the other place..

[Globalcitizen12]

The railway debt in which organizations balance sheet? Where  is the loan prospectus and details? Anyway all you saying above is speculation bullshit that have nothing to do with economic reality ..

[RV Pundit]

The deal is btw kenya Railways and Exim Bank of China. Treasury is the guarantor/arranger. The railway actually exist - it's not speculation - and thanks to China incredible construction machine - it delivered on cost and mostly ahead of schedule. I disagree with HK when it come to infrastructure. He is looking at short term gains - but these are long term projects. If Brits could build a railway in 1900 - when our GDP was probably nothing - then we surely build many now. That old railway paid for itself - because all major towns were built along the railway line. Nairobi itself was a swamp in 1900 and is now one world leading metropolis thanks to that Railway. Machakos lost out thanks to it. The towns along SGR will one day be great industrial cities.

Worldwi/*de - when US's Eisenhowen was build the impressive US inter-state infra - some people were complaining - but see it's impact. The same can be said of Hitler and german infra. The Chinese are now building incredible infra -

Some things are given.  Infrastructure is always a winner. But dumping money say to rescue KQ (now some billions) or Mumias  or Uchumi - we can argue about that - or National Bank - who got 20B cold cash in Kibaki era to clean it's balance sheet.

The railway debt in which organizations balance sheet? Where  is the loan prospectus and details? Anyway all you saying above is speculation bullshit that have nothing to do with economic reality ..

[hk]

Infrastructure development needs to be correlated with private sector growth. SGR while its good and a longterm investment the cargo that's suppose to be handled hasn't increased. And there was hardly the demand to justify $3.5b investment. Anyhow we shall see, Rotich is clearly scrambling looking for more taxes that private sector can't absorb. Its the reason why he cut his budget from $30b to $25b. I heard that in September he'll add VAT on petrol.

[RV Pundit]

SGR is no brainer winner. The loan we will start paying 10yrs - from 2023 till 2063 - that is very very good deal. Our cargo right now is already nearly 30M - SGR to be profitable need to carry max of I think 20M - SGR will hit 20M before we have to start paying for another loan. Chinese are saying we will hit 10M - 3 yrs ahead of schedule.

We need 10 more SGRS - projects that can potentially pay for themselves - our economy now is 88B dollars - so 3.5B is small change.

Infrastructure development needs to be correlated with private sector growth. SGR while its good and a longterm investment the cargo that's suppose to be handled hasn't increased. And there was hardly the demand to justify $3.5b investment. Anyhow we shall see, Rotich is clearly scrambling looking for more taxes that private sector can't absorb. Its the reason why he cut his budget from $30b to $25b. I heard that in September he'll add VAT on petrol.

[Omollo]

The SGR was sold as a commercially viable investment with “high profitability”, healthy cash flows, and short (<20 yr) payback period. However, the feasibility study has no cash flow projections. pic.twitter.com/PbZeLkyYKy

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) June 27, 2018

[Omollo]

[Omollo]

In public economics, we do cost-benefit analysis of all public spending including free education and health care to see whether public is getting value for money. Is subsidizing commercial cargo freight to the tune of Ksh. 80b a year value for public money? That is the question. https://t.co/VmLREfNYac

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) June 27, 2018

Let me put the numbers in perspective
annual cost of running SGR Ksh. 82b
haulage 60k containers.
cost per container Ksh. 1.37m
revenue per container Ksh. 40k
public subsidy per container Ksh. 1.327m.
cheaper to fly containers. https://t.co/hRc5s8s7Z4

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) June 26, 2018

[RV Pundit]

Twitter Economist. He has been invited to argue at UON and he refused. The railway loan will be repaid in 40yrs. NBI-MSA - 350B will be repaid from 2023 to 2062 - so I don't understand where 82B per annum come from...yeah  during construction...we are spending about 82B annually..but to repaid...we will spread it 40yrs...and by China man are projecting we will be 3yrs ahead of schedule to hit 10M metric tonnes.

In public economics, we do cost-benefit analysis of all public spending including free education and health care to see whether public is getting value for money. Is subsidizing commercial cargo freight to the tune of Ksh. 80b a year value for public money? That is the question. https://t.co/VmLREfNYac

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) June 27, 2018

Let me put the numbers in perspective
annual cost of running SGR Ksh. 82b
haulage 60k containers.
cost per container Ksh. 1.37m
revenue per container Ksh. 40k
public subsidy per container Ksh. 1.327m.
cheaper to fly containers. https://t.co/hRc5s8s7Z4

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) June 26, 2018

[hk]

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001287144/the-great-sgr-black-hole  a billion a month for management fee? Another flagship project that's hemorrhaging money. The next one will be big 4.

[RV Pundit]

Not so fast. We have 5yr grace period before we repay the loan and within that period we don't expect to make profit but Chinese are saying we will turn profit in 3yrs. Btw us and China - who should be worried if this didn't turn profit - China - and China are not in business of losing money. This is not TAZARA of communism China. The propaganda by standards are just sour grapes probably for employees fired for incompetence. Without China - Africa continent would still be a huge dump.

I trust the chinese. Now we are doing 7 cargo trains daily...10 by december..while projection was this would be possible in 3yrs.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001287144/the-great-sgr-black-hole  a billion a month for management fee? Another flagship project that's hemorrhaging money. The next one will be big 4.

[hk]

Not so fast. We have 5yr grace period before we repay the loan and within that period we don't expect to make profit but Chinese are saying we will turn profit in 3yrs. Btw us and China - who should be worried if this didn't turn profit - China - and China are not in business of losing money. This is not TAZARA of communism China. The propaganda by standards are just sour grapes probably for employees fired for incompetence. Without China - Africa continent would still be a huge dump.

I trust the chinese. Now we are doing 7 cargo trains daily...10 by december..while projection was this would be possible in 3yrs.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001287144/the-great-sgr-black-hole  a billion a month for management fee? Another flagship project that's hemorrhaging money. The next one will be big 4.

That's well and good but the question is are we paying 1b per month as management fee? If the answer is yes then the only person making money on this is the Chinese even perform we start actually paying for the construction loan.

[RV Pundit]

Watch Ruto in NTV - he accepts - and SGR clearly said 10M tonnes per annum - would be break even - and we will get there before we start repaying the principal in 2020. So yes 120M per annum operation cost if nothing if SGR can haul cargo of say 500-1B dollars transport cost. 10M tonnes can easily rake lots more million dollars.

That's well and good but the question is are we paying 1b per month as management fee? If the answer is yes then the only person making money on this is the Chinese even perform we start actually paying for the construction loan.

[Globalcitizen12]

https://www.mwakilishi.com/article/kenya-news/2018-07-08/exposed-kenyan-sgr-workers-enduring-racism-mistreatment-by-chinese-masters?cid=h

[RV Pundit]

They should report any mistreatment to labour office or industrial court .

https://www.mwakilishi.com/article/kenya-news/2018-07-08/exposed-kenyan-sgr-workers-enduring-racism-mistreatment-by-chinese-masters?cid=h

[Globalcitizen12]

They should .. would action be taken against the new overlords