Author Topic: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani  (Read 38510 times)

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2018, 11:14:50 PM »
Omollo-Explain to me how exactly Raila would help Ruto?  MKM do not need Raila to finish Ruto and I do not think it is in Raila's political interest to stand between Ruto and MKM.  My advise to Raila would be to do what most reasonable people do during a gang fight-stay the hell away. After things have settled down, the winner will definitely need Raila to give them some sense of cover or legitimacy and that is when Raila can make his own demands for himself and for the people of Kenya. I would be surprised if RV mafia wins this fight but it does not really matter to me who wins because both of them are bad for this country.


Ruto should be seeking Raila the way a potential victim of two demons (in agreement) seek God.
I agree Raila Kwisha is a sort of emblem - almost an anthem - of his opponents. The man has the nine lives of a cat!

For Kalonzo on the other hand I think it's a fact. Can't seem to excite anyone outside of the shrinking Mkamba base.

He is been finished - since 2013 - the decay continue. Kalonzo is also another kwisha.
Raila is finished
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2018, 10:14:07 AM »
That strategy has failed since 2009 - I mean you didn't expect Kikuyu & Kalenjin to re-unit after PEV - and when oil & water did eventually mixed - you "bet" that like Raila - Ruto would be betrayed in 3 months - now we are onto the 6yr of Jubilee - and here again you're betting on gema/rv FALLOUT. You're praying for some mutually assured destruction so that Raila can rise from the death & finally become PORK.

Well once you wake up from that dream...you'll come realization that nothing just happen. Ruto is busy working very hard and investing...while you're praying for a fall out. You'll note Ruto at this point cannot be stopped even by GEMA upstart...unless they were to back Raila :) - Ruto now controls the entire Rift Valley (including gema there in), Coast, NEP, Upper Eastern, part of Western, and soon larger swatches of Nyanza - and GEMA vote is now top-ups.

Omollo-Explain to me how exactly Raila would help Ruto?  MKM do not need Raila to finish Ruto and I do not think it is in Raila's political interest to stand between Ruto and MKM.  My advise to Raila would be to do what most reasonable people do during a gang fight-stay the hell away. After things have settled down, the winner will definitely need Raila to give them some sense of cover or legitimacy and that is when Raila can make his own demands for himself and for the people of Kenya. I would be surprised if RV mafia wins this fight but it does not really matter to me who wins because both of them are bad for this country.

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2018, 06:03:12 PM »
Pundit.  The prisoner's dilemma theory is very reliable in predicting human behavior in a situation such as this and that is why some of us are very confident that MKM have no choice but to betray Ruto.  However, In the very unlikely event that they fail to do so, then Ruto will definitely do it to them. Either way is fine with us.  If Ouru is stupid, dumb and mokimo head enough to support a Ruto presidency, then I do not think Ruto will be stupid enough not to immediately consolidate his power and get rid of the kikuyus now in charge of the instruments power and replace them with Kalenjins or kikuyus that are loyal to him.  When that happens, the MKM which now enjoys tremendous clout will loose power.  Do you really think they are that stupid. If they are then they deserve to loose everything.

Prisoner's dilemma
The prisoner's dilemma is a standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely "rational" individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. It was originally framed by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND in 1950.
Prisoner's dilemma - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma



That strategy has failed since 2009 - I mean you didn't expect Kikuyu & Kalenjin to re-unit after PEV - and when oil & water did eventually mixed - you "bet" that like Raila - Ruto would be betrayed in 3 months - now we are onto the 6yr of Jubilee - and here again you're betting on gema/rv FALLOUT. You're praying for some mutually assured destruction so that Raila can rise from the death & finally become PORK.

Well once you wake up from that dream...you'll come realization that nothing just happen. Ruto is busy working very hard and investing...while you're praying for a fall out. You'll note Ruto at this point cannot be stopped even by GEMA upstart...unless they were to back Raila :) - Ruto now controls the entire Rift Valley (including gema there in), Coast, NEP, Upper Eastern, part of Western, and soon larger swatches of Nyanza - and GEMA vote is now top-ups.

Omollo-Explain to me how exactly Raila would help Ruto?  MKM do not need Raila to finish Ruto and I do not think it is in Raila's political interest to stand between Ruto and MKM.  My advise to Raila would be to do what most reasonable people do during a gang fight-stay the hell away. After things have settled down, the winner will definitely need Raila to give them some sense of cover or legitimacy and that is when Raila can make his own demands for himself and for the people of Kenya. I would be surprised if RV mafia wins this fight but it does not really matter to me who wins because both of them are bad for this country.
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #23 on: June 10, 2018, 08:34:26 PM »
I think you've not understood the import of 2010 constitution that requires one basically to win with 50% plus one. Coalition are permanent feature of our politics. If it was NARC or Moi era - yes one could afford to easily dismiss an MOU - and rule with a minority. Kenya 50+1 mean Kikuyus and kalenjin plus other tribes require each one. You can get out of Jubilee...only to realize you'll need a coalition. No kenyan tribe or it's grouping can even get to 25-30%. So look at GEMA option - they either continue with 50-50 with Ruto team - or they risk it all - try to gobble another coalition in the last minute with some unknown unpopular candidate or they somehow try to extend Uhuru lead. I think sane option is to continue 50-50 - they get DPORK - and they get 50-50 deal - and after 10yrs (or less if something happen to Ruto) - their DPORK get a shot at PORK. Raila of course can give them  better option ---which I think is what he is trying - either back Uhuru to continue his term thro a constitutional change that make nonsense of term limit or back some upstart gema candidate - all these - just to spite Ruto.

If I was Raila - I'd basically make a deal with UhuRuto - and retire as AU envoy. His handshake with Uhuru is useless until he extend the same to Ruto. Without shaking hands with Ruto - Ruto will continue to fight him!

Pundit.  The prisoner's dilemma theory is very reliable in predicting human behavior in a situation such as this and that is why some of us are very confident that MKM have no choice but to betray Ruto.  However, In the very unlikely event that they fail to do so, then Ruto will definitely do it to them. Either way is fine with us.  If Ouru is stupid, dumb and mokimo head enough to support a Ruto presidency, then I do not think Ruto will be stupid enough not to immediately consolidate his power and get rid of the kikuyus now in charge of the instruments power and replace them with Kalenjins or kikuyus that are loyal to him.  When that happens, the MKM which now enjoys tremendous clout will loose power.  Do you really think they are that stupid. If they are then they deserve to loose everything.

Prisoner's dilemma
The prisoner's dilemma is a standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely "rational" individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. It was originally framed by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND in 1950.
Prisoner's dilemma - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma

Offline Omollo

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2018, 11:30:42 PM »
KM

MKM are cowards. They would prefer to do something and have someone else take the blame. This is what they have done since independence.

When they killed Mboya they sent Moi to try to blame Jaramogi. Kenyatta went ahead to detain Jaramogi after the open provocation in Kisumu and the massacre that followed.

Raila will not help them and they are not that dumb to enlist his help. However they believe that now that Raila is "with them", they can dispose of Ruto. Their calculation is that primitive.

One thing that must be clear: There is no way the MKM would willingly surrender power to a non Kikuyu. They see 1978 in Ruto and they don't like it one bit. No matter what Ruto does - including drinking Kikuyu blood so he can say he has it inside him - the MKM will hunt him until they have him safely six feet under. They want him to die happy and appreciated like the soldier described by Bertolt Brecht:
Quote
Corporal: he shouts for joy) He lets himself be torn to bits for his superior officer, and when he lies dying he takes note that his corporal is nodding approval and that is reward enough,

Ruto's service to MKM ended the day Uhuru got 98% of the vote - not with RV votes but by his own fraud. He is now expected to simply go away.

I just find the NIS mobilization of "support" comical. Reminds me of the days when Moi would organize the likes of Shariff Nassir to say they support him to be "elected" unopposed as if there was any other candidate. Or what I read about Kenyatta being proposed for President for Life - like he had any plans to die or do so out of office!

Omollo-Explain to me how exactly Raila would help Ruto?  MKM do not need Raila to finish Ruto and I do not think it is in Raila's political interest to stand between Ruto and MKM.  My advise to Raila would be to do what most reasonable people do during a gang fight-stay the hell away. After things have settled down, the winner will definitely need Raila to give them some sense of cover or legitimacy and that is when Raila can make his own demands for himself and for the people of Kenya. I would be surprised if RV mafia wins this fight but it does not really matter to me who wins because both of them are bad for this country.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #25 on: June 11, 2018, 05:19:43 AM »
Pundit Puleeez. Spare me the constitutional explanation of how Ruto is going to become president. Kenya is not a democracy. If Kenya were a democracy, Raila would have been been a president in 2007 where he clearly won. If Kenya were a democracy, there would have been a run-off in 2013 because ouru did not win 50 plus one. If Kenya were a democracy, the server would have been opened in 2017. The reason why Ruto will not be president in 2022 has nothing to do with the votes and the constitution and that is why Ouru is making jokes of his randarandaring as if somehow that is how someone becomes president of Kenya. The last time and probably the only time anybody became the president of Kenya by winning votes was in 2002.  Right now I am sure that even if Ouru were to die in office, and it is clear that Ruto should take over, MKM will try to find away to deny Ruto the presidency. That's how bad things are. Forget about the ballot path.

I think you've not understood the import of 2010 constitution that requires one basically to win with 50% plus one. Coalition are permanent feature of our politics. If it was NARC or Moi era - yes one could afford to easily dismiss an MOU - and rule with a minority. Kenya 50+1 mean Kikuyus and kalenjin plus other tribes require each one. You can get out of Jubilee...only to realize you'll need a coalition. No kenyan tribe or it's grouping can even get to 25-30%. So look at GEMA option - they either continue with 50-50 with Ruto team - or they risk it all - try to gobble another coalition in the last minute with some unknown unpopular candidate or they somehow try to extend Uhuru lead. I think sane option is to continue 50-50 - they get DPORK - and they get 50-50 deal - and after 10yrs (or less if something happen to Ruto) - their DPORK get a shot at PORK. Raila of course can give them  better option ---which I think is what he is trying - either back Uhuru to continue his term thro a constitutional change that make nonsense of term limit or back some upstart gema candidate - all these - just to spite Ruto.

If I was Raila - I'd basically make a deal with UhuRuto - and retire as AU envoy. His handshake with Uhuru is useless until he extend the same to Ruto. Without shaking hands with Ruto - Ruto will continue to fight him!

Pundit.  The prisoner's dilemma theory is very reliable in predicting human behavior in a situation such as this and that is why some of us are very confident that MKM have no choice but to betray Ruto.  However, In the very unlikely event that they fail to do so, then Ruto will definitely do it to them. Either way is fine with us.  If Ouru is stupid, dumb and mokimo head enough to support a Ruto presidency, then I do not think Ruto will be stupid enough not to immediately consolidate his power and get rid of the kikuyus now in charge of the instruments power and replace them with Kalenjins or kikuyus that are loyal to him.  When that happens, the MKM which now enjoys tremendous clout will loose power.  Do you really think they are that stupid. If they are then they deserve to loose everything.

Prisoner's dilemma
The prisoner's dilemma is a standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely "rational" individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. It was originally framed by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND in 1950.
Prisoner's dilemma - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #26 on: June 11, 2018, 05:41:19 AM »
Pundit Puleeez. Spare me the constitutional explanation of how Ruto is going to become president. Kenya is not a democracy. If Kenya were a democracy, Raila would have been been a president in 2007 where he clearly won. If Kenya were a democracy, there would have been a run-off in 2013 because ouru did not win 50 plus one. If Kenya were a democracy, the server would have been opened in 2017. The reason why Ruto will not be president in 2022 has nothing to do with the votes and the constitution and that is why Ouru is making jokes of his randarandaring as if somehow that is how someone becomes president of Kenya. The last time and probably the only time anybody became the president of Kenya by winning votes was in 2002.  Right now I am sure that even if Ouru were to die in office, and it is clear that Ruto should take over, MKM will try to find away to deny Ruto the presidency. That's how bad things are. Forget about the ballot path.

It's a sad state of affairs.  On the one hand, it easily lets you know who is out of luck.  On the other, it wastes people's time and energy on sham elections.  Perhaps Pundit would take solace in the early arrival his hoped for benevolent dictatorship :grin: .

If kamwana dies and the kitchen cabinet is opposed to the hustler, they'll probably simply not announce the news until it's convenient.  It's been done before in Naija.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #27 on: June 11, 2018, 08:16:40 AM »
Kenya is a thriving democracy - right from MCA to PORK - we have invested in some most expensive tech that make rigging on any scale very hard if not impossible - I know you guys have yet to accept defeat. If you don't trust IEBC - trust MOASS - our national politics is nothing more than ethnic census. MOASS did predict Uhuru win by 52-54% - I think he won by that margin.
It's a sad state of affairs.  On the one hand, it easily lets you know who is out of luck.  On the other, it wastes people's time and energy on sham elections.  Perhaps Pundit would take solace in the early arrival his hoped for benevolent dictatorship :grin: .

If kamwana dies and the kitchen cabinet is opposed to the hustler, they'll probably simply not announce the news until it's convenient.  It's been done before in Naija.

Offline Pajero

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #28 on: June 11, 2018, 10:23:25 AM »
Uhuru did not win last elections,the outcome was already pre determined and thats why live transmission of results broke down for three hours.The reason why the gap between Uhuru and Raila remained constant by 11% was by design and not default.results were streaming in randomly and there is no way the gap could have remained constant at 11%.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #29 on: June 11, 2018, 11:06:32 AM »
It is a clear NO and do not intimidate Pajero with an appeal to authority fallacy bro.

Actually if you did statitics 101 - that is exactly how results would behave if they randomly stream in. If the results stream in randomly from all corners of kenya - you should be able to know the results after 2,000 polling stations. That is what pollster use - they randomly sample 2,000 kenyans - not 19m adults. Initially as results start to stream - you expect wild swings - but as settle - then the gap will be constant.

Personally I called it for Uhuru just after 2,000 polling station had streamed in - I think Terminator was here - and that is when he started demanding to verify the forms.

Real rigging is 2007 - that is where you have Raila leading by nearly 1M votes today - and tomorrow you wake up & that margin has been wipped out. If Kibaki hadn't rigged himself - by witholding and inflating his strongholds votes - the gap btw Raila & Kibaki would have remained constant - based on the first few reporting const - Raila would have won! - and those results were corroborated by MPS/Councillors elections were ODM wiped the floor with PNU (had mere 40 mps!!!)+affiliates.

Uhuru did not win last elections,the outcome was already pre determined and thats why live transmission of results broke down for three hours.The reason why the gap between Uhuru and Raila remained constant by 11% was by design and not default.results were streaming in randomly and there is no way the gap could have remained constant at 11%.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 01:01:46 PM by Omollo »

Offline RV Pundit

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Offline Omollo

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #31 on: June 11, 2018, 12:58:07 PM »
This random streaming theory of yours was roundly debunked when you first raised it. Please spare us the Goebbelsian tactic of repeating a lie so it can eventually acquire a tincture of truth.

If this were true they wouldn't have gone so far as to hide the logs from the servers or delete forms etc.
 in to serious doubt.
Lastly ( and with all due respect) do a simple thing: check your dictionary for the meaning of random.

That said you must have been asleep when the IEBC and Uhuru stated that the streamed results were mere "statistics" thus avoiding tough questions that would have called the logic
Actually if you did statitics 101 - that is exactly how results would behave if they randomly stream in. If the results stream in randomly from all corners of kenya - you should be able to know the results after 2,000 polling stations. That is what pollster use - they randomly sample 2,000 kenyans - not 19m adults. Initially as results start to stream - you expect wild swings - but as settle - then the gap will be constant.

Personally I called it for Uhuru just after 2,000 polling station had streamed in - I think Terminator was here - and that is when he started demanding to verify the forms.

Real rigging is 2007 - that is where you have Raila leading by nearly 1M votes today - and tomorrow you wake up & that margin has been wipped out. If Kibaki hadn't rigged himself - by witholding and inflating his strongholds votes - the gap btw Raila & Kibaki would have remained constant - based on the first few reporting const - Raila would have won! - and those results were corroborated by MPS/Councillors elections were ODM wiped the floor with PNU (had mere 40 mps!!!)+affiliates.

Uhuru did not win last elections,the outcome was already pre determined and thats why live transmission of results broke down for three hours.The reason why the gap between Uhuru and Raila remained constant by 11% was by design and not default.results were streaming in randomly and there is no way the gap could have remained constant at 11%.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #33 on: June 11, 2018, 01:43:42 PM »
Bla bla de bla. When you're ready to have honest debate - come here - the polling stations randomly reported as soon as they closed and counted - starting with those that had few votes - like prisons - and they were all coming in from different directions - Narok Prison I think was the first to check in with 11 votes - and we only need to get the first 2,000 or so sample of polling stations - to call PORK - and that is what I called for - right here and there.
How random is the release of results from ONLY Jubilee strongholds FIRST.

Offline Kichwa

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #34 on: June 11, 2018, 01:44:55 PM »
Pundito-you really like to insult peoples intelligence. We have watched randomly streamed results for years and do not therefore need lectures. Maybe the MKM should go ahead and shave Ruto without water before reality finally hits you like a mack truck.

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/oped/comment/Elections-results-reporting/434750-4125756-dhi4y7/index.html
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #35 on: June 11, 2018, 01:47:22 PM »
Quote from: Pundit
First you don't need to waste Billions to know what MOAS already knew. UHURU was going to win by 52-54% margin. I wasn't part of any rigging nor am I a magician. You just need to do basic ethnic maths to know how the cookie will crumble.

Seconldy randomness was in the statistics - the assumption being every polling station would report the data as soon as they were done counting - and that is what they did - and once we had first few thousands polling stations - the results were NEVER going to change - that uniformity is RANDOMNESS.

If it was rigged like 2007 - then you don't have uniformity . So you either accept 2007 was rigged because of wild swings or 2013/2017 were rigged because the % never change - because data was being reported randomly from all the many polling stations.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 03:47:53 PM by Omollo »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #36 on: June 11, 2018, 01:49:10 PM »
When did you watch it. Elections in kenya are very hard to steal - they are so many layers of controls & everyone is watching it. You simply didn't have the votes. I did MOAS here without the benefit of any tech or billions or stats - and it mirrored the results.

2007 was rigged and it was obvious....Raila had to get the PM.

Pundito-you really like to insult peoples intelligence. We have watched randomly streamed results for years and do not therefore need lectures. Maybe the MKM should go ahead and shave Ruto without water before reality finally hits you like a mack truck.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #37 on: June 11, 2018, 01:55:13 PM »
http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=4993.msg37315;topicseen#msg37315

That thread is what we commented when it was live. I personally knew as soon as we got the first 50 polling stations - that is was over for raila.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #38 on: June 11, 2018, 02:05:04 PM »
And really if rigging was all one required to win - why would Ruto campaign nonstop btw 2013- 2017 - with UhuRuto holding nearly 600 rallies in last few months. And all that effort saw UhuRuto increase their share of votes in bungoma, gusii, nyamira, tranzoia, narok ,etc...by anything 10-20%. Now Ruto is busy working hard again - so he can further increase  Uhuru's 54% to something like 60%....by working his butt off....few months into 2018..and he made headways in kakamega, bungoma, tranozia, most of coast, turkana , maasailand...in fact he just need to crack Gusii...which as soften from the 2007 PEV feel of injustice.

In meantime lazy Raila lost 2013 by failing to consolidate his 2007 const - he let Kalenjin slip out -- while he could have us his PMship to add more votes from 45% he got in 2007! to make it 50%! All he needed to give Ruto was simple - Deputy PMship - Ruto won't have minded- if the three - Uhuru, MaDVD & him were all Deputy PM. That is ALL RAILA NEEDED TO DO :) Raila would now be serving his final term in office with Ruto looking to inherit him. But of course Raila could not standard somebody as talented as Ruto...he had to kill Ruto ambition without knowing Ruto was his most hardworking & resourceful servant  :D

Come 2017 - the same lazyness - while Jubilee was merging 14 parties --- NASA were out fighting!

Come 2018 - the man just killed NASA -and is now hoping Uhuru will also kill JUBILEE. Talk of the hyena and hare...Hyena eat his mother (NASA) as the hares smiles.

Offline Pajero

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Re: Raila & Joho wanaona moto pwani
« Reply #39 on: June 11, 2018, 02:58:15 PM »
Even after merging 14 parties they still had to rig