Weta and Mudavadi miss the boat, again!

[GeeMail]

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Kalonzo has smelled the coffee and will remain on the right side of history. His two NASA brothers Weta and Mudavadi have early opposed the proposed changes to the constitution mainly because Raila is behind them. On this, they are easy pickings for Ruto on his escape from State House  They will run away together opposing the constitution and Raila throwing away the baby with the bathwater. We said they should have joined Miguna Miguna at the airport long before Raila appeared there. Now they are stuck in a rut(o) and only Ruto will pull them out.

https://citizentv.co.ke/news/kalonzo-supports-proposals-to-amend-constitution-199153/

[Kichwa]

If Ouru and Raila were to start touring the country together campaigning for the referendum then Weta, Mdvd and Ruto will be in hot shiet.  There hope is that Ouru stays neutral. There is no way Mt. Kenya MP's will go against ouru publicly otherwise their opponents will take advantage and oust them.

Kalonzo has smelled the coffee and will remain on the right side of history. His two NASA brothers Weta and Mudavadi have early opposed the proposed changes to the constitution mainly because Raila is behind them. On this, they are easy pickings for Ruto on his escape from State House  They will run away together opposing the constitution and Raila throwing away the baby with the bathwater. We said they should have joined Miguna Miguna at the airport long before Raila appeared there. Now they are stuck in a rut(o) and only Ruto will pull them out.

https://citizentv.co.ke/news/kalonzo-supports-proposals-to-amend-constitution-199153/

[GeeMail]

It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.

Mudavadi has basically established a track record of dependence.  If he plays his cards right he can make a decent side-kick.  Maybe he winds up becoming first governor of a putative Western super-region  .  If GEMA, Luos and Luhyas want constitutional change, then it will happen.

[Kichwa]

If that is true then that's a smart move for MDVD. Weta can suck up to Ruto but MDVD has been a Deputy president and will look awkward playing manamba to newbee like Ruto. MDVD needs to stick with Raila and may end up Deputy prime minister or Governor.  Ruto still looks out of place outside Kalenjin when without Ouru.  He is not comfortable in the national stage by himself and seems to need to be surrounded by well paid tumbocrats singing his praises and assuring him that he will be president.  He needs to relax some, soften his ubiquitous attack-dog image a little bit, joke some (a few kitendawili and soccer stories may help) but more importantly smile some more. Right now he looks like  Hitler Junior ready to gas his opponents even before he becames president-he is a scary dude. Gidi looked like the grown-up at that funeral even after Ruto let his dogs loose on him all day long.

It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.

[RV Pundit]

That would be the 3rd or 4th time he'd be doing that. MaDVD instead should seize the opportunity of Raila 'betrayal' and take Luhya vote. If they combine with Wetangula - then Bukusu-Maragoli would easily rope other Luhyas. If they can hold onto that large const - then they can leverage for something - otherwise making a deal with Raila or Ruto or Uhuru when you haven't consolidated your base is political stupidity 101.

As regard WSR - ohoo boy - the man has it all locked up - Kalenjin the 99% - KAMATUSA - locked - SOMALIS+Boranas+Northern locked - He is playing in COAST all the way to Taveta -  He has made serious headway in Bukusu+Wanga+Iteso in western. He will just struggle in Gusii only but not for long if Matiangi become the new center of power in Gusiiland like he will!

When Ruto attempted his first national push - in 2010 - he managed to get 33% - now imagine locking all those KANU era tribes - that won moi election twice and kept him power for such long.

Basically going into 2022 - GEMA is top up And that is how you become PORK.  Ruto may well end up with 40% of the vote without GEMA. So he'll just need 15% kind of guy to win it - a Kamba or MaDVD. Of course GEMA will keep their 50% share...and Ruto will win with 60% plus....that is how MOAS is starting to look like. Raila will come second with about 20%. MADVD and Kalonzo will share the 10%.

That is why there is frantic stampede to amend the constitution.

If that is true then that's a smart move for MDVD. Weta can suck up to Ruto but MDVD has been a Deputy president and will look awkward playing manamba to newbee like Ruto. MDVD needs to stick with Raila and may end up Deputy prime minister or Governor.  Ruto still looks out of place outside Kalenjin when without Ouru.  He is not comfortable in the national stage by himself and seems to need to be surrounded by well paid tumbocrats singing his praises and assuring him that he will be president.  He needs to relax some, soften his ubiquitous attack-dog image a little bit, joke some (a few kitendawili and soccer stories may help) but more importantly smile some more. Right now he looks like  Hitler Junior ready to gas his opponents even before he becames president-he is a scary dude. Gidi looked like the grown-up at that funeral even after Ruto let his dogs loose on him all day long.

It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.

[RV Pundit]

You clearly don't understand politics. All small tribes will gang up to oppose those regions. It politics 101. In fact the quickest way to kill Raila's referendum is to propose those 14 regions in the constitution. No way 47 tribes who now have a direct say in devolution - will allow the big 5-7 tribes to dominate them! Now way even sub-tribe within those  big tribes will accept to be dominated.

Somethings are just BLACK n WHite. Engage your thinking caps

Diminishing in any way those 47 counties will take so much force - It aint ever happening. This is not some concept or idea...tribes or sub-tribes have tasted money+power and they aint letting someone in some region stand in their way to Nairobi.

Maybe he winds up becoming first governor of a putative Western super-region  .  If GEMA, Luos and Luhyas want constitutional change, then it will happen.

[Nefertiti]

This is more like it: we need a PORK who is not nusu mkate to implement his 5- 10yrs Marshall Plan. Raila's aim is to scuttle these numbers by claiming Ruto opposes their inclusion in GoK and fair chance at power.

That would be the 3rd or 4th time he'd be doing that. MaDVD instead should seize the opportunity of Raila 'betrayal' and take Luhya vote. If they combine with Wetangula - then Bukusu-Maragoli would easily rope other Luhyas. If they can hold onto that large const - then they can leverage for something - otherwise making a deal with Raila or Ruto or Uhuru when you haven't consolidated your base is political stupidity 101.

As regard WSR - ohoo boy - the man has it all locked up - Kalenjin the 99% - KAMATUSA - locked - SOMALIS+Boranas+Northern locked - He is playing in COAST all the way to Taveta -  He has made serious headway in Bukusu+Wanga+Iteso in western. He will just struggle in Gusii only but not for long if Matiangi become the new center of power in Gusiiland like he will!

When Ruto attempted his first national push - in 2010 - he managed to get 33% - now imagine locking all those KANU era tribes - that won moi election twice and kept him power for such long.

Basically going into 2022 - GEMA is top up And that is how you become PORK.  Ruto may well end up with 40% of the vote without GEMA. So he'll just need 15% kind of guy to win it - a Kamba or MaDVD. Of course GEMA will keep their 50% share...and Ruto will win with 60% plus....that is how MOAS is starting to look like. Raila will come second with about 20%. MADVD and Kalonzo will share the 10%.

That is why there is frantic stampede to amend the constitution.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

You clearly don't understand politics. All small tribes will gang up to oppose those regions. It politics 101. In fact the quickest way to kill Raila's referendum is to propose those 14 regions in the constitution. No way 47 tribes who now have a direct say in devolution - will allow the big 5-7 tribes to dominate them! Now way even sub-tribe within those  big tribes will accept to be dominated.

Somethings are just BLACK n WHite. Engage your thinking caps

Diminishing in any way those 47 counties will take so much force - It aint ever happening. This is not some concept or idea...tribes or sub-tribes have tasted money+power and they aint letting someone in some region stand in their way to Nairobi.

Maybe he winds up becoming first governor of a putative Western super-region  .  If GEMA, Luos and Luhyas want constitutional change, then it will happen.

We don't know what the actual plan is.  You are just as clueless as the hustler right now.  Actually more clueless.  kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants.  Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.

That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario.  There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way.  That's not to say they will turn out that way.  The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.

We are all engaged in guesswork at this point.  Some of us just happen to not realize it.

[RV Pundit]

That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.

Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.

We don't know what the actual plan is.  You are just as clueless as the hustler right now.  Actually more clueless.  kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants.  Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.

That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario.  There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way.  That's not to say they will turn out that way.  The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.

We are all engaged in guesswork at this point.  Some of us just happen to not realize it.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.

Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.

We don't know what the actual plan is.  You are just as clueless as the hustler right now.  Actually more clueless.  kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants.  Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.

That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario.  There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way.  That's not to say they will turn out that way.  The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.

We are all engaged in guesswork at this point.  Some of us just happen to not realize it.

Off the top of my head ...

You predicted a Raila loss in August elections.  Didn't happen. 

MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC  .  You have never grasped that.

Raila is kaput.  And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.

What other punditry did I miss?

[GeeMail]

Actually, the possibility that Ruto will manipulate or somehow mobilize small tribes into opposing constitutional amendments is real. What are the numbers anyway? What is also real is that having shown his trump card so early, some carrots will be dangled for the small tribes also (devolution style, like Turkana hiving off some oil revenue). mark you, there is rumored to be good amounts of oil in Luoland too, so that may also be a game changer. Again, if all else fails, secession is always at the back of the mind. In fact, the spat between Duale and Kipkorir about Somali numbers which Pundit also dances around here with may be a large factor as well. Somalis may just demand their own things which may not necessarily gel with Ruto's plans.
Something else that keeps cropping up is the alleged invincibility of the RV man. Pundit harps it here all day how Ruto this, Ruto that all bagged up. Who has forgotten the vifalangalanga elections where losers were made victors and those with long hands in IEBC got relatives elected on the byte? Ruto has never won an election as a leader (not in 2013 and most of all not even 2017). In fact, if it wasn't for the vifalangalanga one might say he performed worse in 2017, so much so that computers had to be roped in with Cambridge Analytica to prop up the dying brand. Ruto never led the NO faction against the constitution in 2010 either. He just happened to be among the many.

[Nefertiti]

The regional proposal is a slew to make it look like something beyond PM, so the Handshake is perceived as posterity. The plan is to "concede" the regions as part of the negotiations.

[Nefertiti]

That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.

Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.

We don't know what the actual plan is.  You are just as clueless as the hustler right now.  Actually more clueless.  kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants.  Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.

That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario.  There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way.  That's not to say they will turn out that way.  The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.

We are all engaged in guesswork at this point.  Some of us just happen to not realize it.

Off the top of my head ...

You predicted a Raila loss in August elections.  Didn't happen. 

MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC  .  You have never grasped that.

Raila is kaput.  And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.

What other punditry did I miss?

Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.

Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.

We don't know what the actual plan is.  You are just as clueless as the hustler right now.  Actually more clueless.  kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants.  Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.

That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario.  There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way.  That's not to say they will turn out that way.  The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.

We are all engaged in guesswork at this point.  Some of us just happen to not realize it.

Off the top of my head ...

You predicted a Raila loss in August elections.  Didn't happen. 

MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC  .  You have never grasped that.

Raila is kaput.  And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.

What other punditry did I miss?

Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.

Clinton won the popular vote.  Yes, I thought she would win the electoral college too.  And I was wrong.  But I would lean the same way given a similar setup.

[Nefertiti]

That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.

Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.

We don't know what the actual plan is.  You are just as clueless as the hustler right now.  Actually more clueless.  kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants.  Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.

That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario.  There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way.  That's not to say they will turn out that way.  The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.

We are all engaged in guesswork at this point.  Some of us just happen to not realize it.

Off the top of my head ...

You predicted a Raila loss in August elections.  Didn't happen. 

MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC  .  You have never grasped that.

Raila is kaput.  And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.

What other punditry did I miss?

Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.

Clinton won the popular vote.  Yes, I thought she would win the electoral college too.  And I was wrong.  But I would lean the same way given a similar setup.

Ergo, you're a failed pundit.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.

Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.

We don't know what the actual plan is.  You are just as clueless as the hustler right now.  Actually more clueless.  kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants.  Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.

That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario.  There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way.  That's not to say they will turn out that way.  The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.

We are all engaged in guesswork at this point.  Some of us just happen to not realize it.

Off the top of my head ...

You predicted a Raila loss in August elections.  Didn't happen. 

MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC  .  You have never grasped that.

Raila is kaput.  And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.

What other punditry did I miss?

Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.

Clinton won the popular vote.  Yes, I thought she would win the electoral college too.  And I was wrong.  But I would lean the same way given a similar setup.

Ergo, you're a failed pundit.

True.  If my understanding of probability is mistaken.

[RV Pundit]

It got nothing to do with probability but objectivity. You have to divorce yourself from worshipping Raila or Clinton or xyz and dispassionately analyze issues. I can tell you that I started MOAS way back in 2006 - and it's never been wrong -  I predicted 2007 - Raila would win with I think 47-48% against Kibaki 42-44%- Kibaki rigged himself and we ended up with 44-45% or around - and PEV. Then as early as 2008 I predicted UhuRuto would win..and my MOAS for 2010 constitution was spot on 33% versus 67% (while everyone thought NOs would struggle to get 20%)..And 2013 MOAS was spot on - and while pollsters predicted a run off - I predicted UhuRuto would win in first round. The last year MOAS was spot on or near spot on right from PORK to MPS to Governors ---and you'd have to think I was part of the rigging when I predicted Uhuru would win with 52% against Raila 47% -- it ended up being 54% against 46%. I also predicted Uhuru would win the next one with 98% with Raila despite withdrawing beating Akuro Okot . And when it came to Trump...I clearly could see the path to Trump victory...you refused to acknowledge that he was pandering to 70% of the population - the whites and would win in a clearly smart albeit crass strategy. I can tell you going into next election...Trump is very likely to win again.

When it come to Kenya politics..it all about tribes...so if you're going to propose an ammendment that make most tribes unhappy...just to please Raila that is DOA. I think regions are doa for rather obvious reason...they will diminish counties and nobody esp small tribes or sub-tribes want that...people want more counties. Executive PM is also DOA. Parliamentary system is also DOA - kenyans will never allow MPIGS to decide their fate.

What will pass is an executive PORK elected by universal suffrage and a weaken PM & it's deputies who would be nothing more than the majority leader of parliament. Raila can push for that....but anything else is waste of time+energy. Strategy wise...Ruto should oppose any amendment to constitution...a complete turn around btw 2010 and now...when Raila told us constitution was perfect and he was the father...and Ruto wanted some issues ironed out.

True.  If my understanding of probability is mistaken.

[Kichwa]

It got nothing to do with probability but objectivity. You have to divorce yourself from worshipping Raila or Clinton or xyz and dispassionately analyze issues. I can tell you that I started MOAS way back in 2006 - and it's never been wrong -  I predicted 2007 - Raila would win with I think 47-48% against Kibaki 42-44%- Kibaki rigged himself and we ended up with 44-45% or around - and PEV. Then as early as 2008 I predicted UhuRuto would win..and my MOAS for 2010 constitution was spot on 33% versus 67% (while everyone thought NOs would struggle to get 20%)..And 2013 MOAS was spot on - and while pollsters predicted a run off - I predicted UhuRuto would win in first round. The last year MOAS was spot on or near spot on right from PORK to MPS to Governors ---and you'd have to think I was part of the rigging when I predicted Uhuru would win with 52% against Raila 47% -- it ended up being 54% against 46%. I also predicted Uhuru would win the next one with 98% with Raila despite withdrawing beating Akuro Okot . And when it came to Trump...I clearly could see the path to Trump victory...you refused to acknowledge that he was pandering to 70% of the population - the whites and would win in a clearly smart albeit crass strategy. I can tell you going into next election...Trump is very likely to win again.

When it come to Kenya politics..it all about tribes...so if you're going to propose an ammendment that make most tribes unhappy...just to please Raila that is DOA. I think regions are doa for rather obvious reason...they will diminish counties and nobody esp small tribes or sub-tribes want that...people want more counties. Executive PM is also DOA. Parliamentary system is also DOA - kenyans will never allow MPIGS to decide their fate.

What will pass is an executive PORK elected by universal suffrage and a weaken PM & it's deputies who would be nothing more than the majority leader of parliament. Raila can push for that....but anything else is waste of time+energy. Strategy wise...Ruto should oppose any amendment to constitution...a complete turn around btw 2010 and now...when Raila told us constitution was perfect and he was the father...and Ruto wanted some issues ironed out.

True.  If my understanding of probability is mistaken.

[RV Pundit]

You're nearly coming along but you still like to complicate simple stuff - politics - dude is not rocket science. Paradigm shift or interests all will manifest publicly and reading it is so easy. It not like you got some underground movement that we won't pick it up until it's done. Yes things just don't happen but are made to happen. And therefore as we watch Raila or Ruto or Uhuru try to make things happen - there are those we can now and here dismiss as dead on arrival. Regional govs are so dead there is really no point talking about them. Executive PM elected by Mpigs or majority party is also very dead...obviously Uhuru and Raila can salivate about how to extend their stay in politics beyond 2022..but Ruto is the man to beat...and Duale will become the PM