Weta and Mudavadi miss the boat, again!

[Kichwa]

It simple, you are obsessed with short term predictions and I am into long term change.  I can therefore predict that we will end the Ouruto/tyranny of numbers, Kalenjin/kikuyu run which started in 2013 and was supposed to last 100 years. It is not going to last as long as you earlier predicted.  The rest is a yawn.

You're nearly coming along but you still like to complicate simple stuff - politics - dude is not rocket science. Paradigm shift or interests all will manifest publicly and reading it is so easy. It not like you got some underground movement that we won't pick it up until it's done. Yes things just don't happen but are made to happen. And therefore as we watch Raila or Ruto or Uhuru try to make things happen - there are those we can now and here dismiss as dead on arrival. Regional govs are so dead there is really no point talking about them. Executive PM elected by Mpigs or majority party is also very dead...obviously Uhuru and Raila can salivate about how to extend their stay in politics beyond 2022..but Ruto is the man to beat...and Duale will become the PM

[RV Pundit]

Well 100yrs is a bit of a stretch - but who knows - it's already heading to 60yrs now.

It simple, you are obsessed with short term predictions and I am into long term change.  I can therefore predict that we will end the Ouruto/tyranny of numbers, Kalenjin/kikuyu run which started in 2013 and was supposed to last 100 years. It is not going to last as long as you earlier predicted.  The rest is a yawn.

[Kichwa]

 I guess you are now trying to claim that you predicted the last 60 years. That entire era saw many paradigm shifts and cannot be considered as one.  Uhuru, Ruto and Raila have been in the opposition and in government several times during that time. Please confine your expertise  to the period between 2013 to August 2017 when your smokes and mirrors act was unmasked. The whole rigging machinery and Kalenjin Gema alliance  cannot work without Ouru. Gema is not going to vote lock step for Ruto without Ouru at the top of the ticket. We predicted that a long time ago and that prediction has not been proven wrong yet. You can take that prediction to the Bank.

It simple, you are obsessed with short term predictions and I am into long term change.  I can therefore predict that we will end the Ouruto/tyranny of numbers, Kalenjin/kikuyu run which started in 2013 and was supposed to last 100 years. It is not going to last as long as you earlier predicted.  The rest is a yawn.

You're nearly coming along but you still like to complicate simple stuff - politics - dude is not rocket science. Paradigm shift or interests all will manifest publicly and reading it is so easy. It not like you got some underground movement that we won't pick it up until it's done. Yes things just don't happen but are made to happen. And therefore as we watch Raila or Ruto or Uhuru try to make things happen - there are those we can now and here dismiss as dead on arrival. Regional govs are so dead there is really no point talking about them. Executive PM elected by Mpigs or majority party is also very dead...obviously Uhuru and Raila can salivate about how to extend their stay in politics beyond 2022..but Ruto is the man to beat...and Duale will become the PM

[RV Pundit]

Now Uhuru is yours and is ready to endorse Ida. I think it's bit of a stretch to imagine UhuRuto can rule for 100yrs. I never thought that possible. What is very likely is Ruto will hand over to another GEMA in 2022...because where I sit...DPORK in 2022 will be GEMA.

I guess you are now trying to claim that you predicted the last 60 years. That entire era saw many paradigm shifts and cannot be considered as one.  Uhuru, Ruto and Raila have been in the opposition and in government several times during that time. Please confine your expertise  to the period between 2013 to August 2017 when your smokes and mirrors act was unmasked. The whole rigging machinery and Kalenjin Gema alliance  cannot work without Ouru. Gema is not going to vote lock step for Ruto without Ouru at the top of the ticket. We predicted that a long time ago and that prediction has not been proven wrong yet. You can take that prediction to the Bank.

[Kichwa]

The idea has always been to break the Kikuyu/Kalenjin lock-step voting.  It needed both Ouru and Ruto to work, especially Ouru because it is much harder to hold Gema together than it is to hold Kale's together.  Even without the handshake, it was going to be hard to find a replacement for Ouru that can hold Gema together and even harder when the replacement is to be a DP.  You see, Kiuks have had three presidents now and will not be impressed with a DP. Even harder to find will be a DP that all GEMA will embrace. This is why the whole idea of power shifting from Kalenjin to Kikuyu and then from Kikuyu to Kalenjin was a pipe dream all along. This arrangement was only designed to benefit Ouru and pacify Kalenjin into thinking that they had the presidency locked. Now with the hand shake its even harder.  Some GEMA will stick with Ruto-half at most, but a huge chunk will either have their own candidate or split their vote.  That is the opening that some serious voter may need. The opposition may even endorse a strong GEMA candidate to stop Ruto like Kibaki was used to stop Uhuru in 2002 if it becomes necessary.

Now Uhuru is yours and is ready to endorse Ida. I think it's bit of a stretch to imagine UhuRuto can rule for 100yrs. I never thought that possible. What is very likely is Ruto will hand over to another GEMA in 2022...because where I sit...DPORK in 2022 will be GEMA.

I guess you are now trying to claim that you predicted the last 60 years. That entire era saw many paradigm shifts and cannot be considered as one.  Uhuru, Ruto and Raila have been in the opposition and in government several times during that time. Please confine your expertise  to the period between 2013 to August 2017 when your smokes and mirrors act was unmasked. The whole rigging machinery and Kalenjin Gema alliance  cannot work without Ouru. Gema is not going to vote lock step for Ruto without Ouru at the top of the ticket. We predicted that a long time ago and that prediction has not been proven wrong yet. You can take that prediction to the Bank.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto has a huge following and half GEMA is more than necessary for him to nick it. Raila must work on two fronts to stop Ruto

-Hive off GEMA  - seems to be afoot
-Use Ruto's opposition to "inclusion" to disgruntle smaller tribes against him

Ruto, with the mammoth Jubilee and the bureacracy staffed with his cronies, has the stars lined up. His worst nightmare is a divisive referendum which is unfolding as he watches. He did this to Raila 08-13 and is being served his own concoction.

Politicians are strange. Ruto interfered with GEMA primaries to lock out upstarts kina PK and Munya and is now unhappy the same is applied to him. He is faithless but demands the opposite of everyone.

[RV Pundit]

Relax. The plan is still very much on.Ruto win PORK and GEMA pick DPORK. If they don't want it - they can go for Raila

The idea has always been to break the Kikuyu/Kalenjin lock-step voting.  It needed both Ouru and Ruto to work, especially Ouru because it is much harder to hold Gema together than it is to hold Kale's together.  Even without the handshake, it was going to be hard to find a replacement for Ouru that can hold Gema together and even harder when the replacement is to be a DP.  You see, Kiuks have had three presidents now and will not be impressed with a DP. Even harder to find will be a DP that all GEMA will embrace. This is why the whole idea of power shifting from Kalenjin to Kikuyu and then from Kikuyu to Kalenjin was a pipe dream all along. This arrangement was only designed to benefit Ouru and pacify Kalenjin into thinking that they had the presidency locked. Now with the hand shake its even harder.  Some GEMA will stick with Ruto-half at most, but a huge chunk will either have their own candidate or split their vote.  That is the opening that some serious voter may need. The opposition may even endorse a strong GEMA candidate to stop Ruto like Kibaki was used to stop Uhuru in 2002 if it becomes necessary.

[RV Pundit]

The path to a referendum is long one - Raila tried with Okoa - and it didn't work. Uhuru is not ready for a referendum.

Ruto has a huge following and half GEMA is more than necessary for him to nick it. Raila must work on two fronts to stop Ruto

-Hive off GEMA  - seems to be afoot
-Use Ruto's opposition to "inclusion" to disgruntle smaller tribes against him

Ruto, with the mammoth Jubilee and the bureacracy staffed with his cronies, has the stars lined up. His worst nightmare is a divisive referendum which is unfolding as he watches. He did this to Raila 08-13 and is being served his own concoction.

Politicians are strange. Ruto interfered with GEMA primaries to lock out upstarts kina PK and Munya and is now unhappy the same is applied to him. He is faithless but demands the opposite of everyone.

[Nefertiti]

This is all Raila needs, not necessarily a real one, to fuel Project Stop Ruto.

The path to a referendum is long one - Raila tried with Okoa - and it didn't work. Uhuru is not ready for a referendum.

Ruto has a huge following and half GEMA is more than necessary for him to nick it. Raila must work on two fronts to stop Ruto

-Hive off GEMA  - seems to be afoot
-Use Ruto's opposition to "inclusion" to disgruntle smaller tribes against him

Ruto, with the mammoth Jubilee and the bureacracy staffed with his cronies, has the stars lined up. His worst nightmare is a divisive referendum which is unfolding as he watches. He did this to Raila 08-13 and is being served his own concoction.

Politicians are strange. Ruto interfered with GEMA primaries to lock out upstarts kina PK and Munya and is now unhappy the same is applied to him. He is faithless but demands the opposite of everyone.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto just need to go hardline & public - and Uhuru will be scared to move ahead with any mischief. Ruto just has to drawn the line on the sand. And that will make Uhuru realize he'd be crossing the rubicon.Uhuru has no stomach for a fight - so he'll tell Raila to get busy with other agendas.

 I think so far Ruto has done it successfully - making sure the hand-shake is just that - not anchored in law or in gov.

This is all Raila needs, not necessarily a real one, to fuel Project Stop Ruto.

[Kichwa]

You should take your own advise about being a cold blooded political pundit.  You are too tied emotionally to Ruto to make reasonable observation.  For example, you say talk about WSR being tough on Ouru.  WSR needs Ouru but I do not see how Ouru needs WSR. Therefore why should Ruto go rogue on Ouru publicly.  That may just make Ouru mad and then he may not endorse WSR.  Without Ouru's endorsement, WSR will not get even 50% of GEMA vote.  Even if Ouru endorses WSR, he will not get the same amount of GEMA as ouru got.

Ruto just need to go hardline & public - and Uhuru will be scared to move ahead with any mischief. Ruto just has to drawn the line on the sand. And that will make Uhuru realize he'd be crossing the rubicon.Uhuru has no stomach for a fight - so he'll tell Raila to get busy with other agendas.

 I think so far Ruto has done it successfully - making sure the hand-shake is just that - not anchored in law or in gov.

This is all Raila needs, not necessarily a real one, to fuel Project Stop Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

That probably explain why Raila and rest have not managed to beat GEMA. You don't face gema with weakness and meekness and expect to win.Now Raila is out there cleaning and dinning with Mungiki . Ohoo so Ruto plays nice and Uhuru doesn't get mad. Nope - you have to demonstrate to Uhuru that he doesn't stick to the deal - and it's self-assured destruction. I think Sonko has the playbook for that...and he won Nairobi despite GEMA controlling more than half of Jubilee. Ruto has to make sure Raila get NO space..no peace..no inch..and has to make Uhuru not get too nice or carried away with his peace agenda. That I think he has done successfully so far. Raila has been left to clean Mungiki hands and veteran harambee stars players. He speaks about 2022 - and Jubilee go hammers on him - he had to retract . That is how to play the game. Ruto job is basically to neutralize and sabotage Raila ..because Raila remain his main opponent.

Ruto has to drawn the sand early so those thinking of PM or extending Uhuru term knows they got a big messy fight coming if they insist - and so they'll get discouraged early enough.

You should take your own advise about being a cold blooded political pundit.  You are too tied emotionally to Ruto to make reasonable observation.  For example, you say talk about WSR being tough on Ouru.  WSR needs Ouru but I do not see how Ouru needs WSR. Therefore why should Ruto go rogue on Ouru publicly.  That may just make Ouru mad and then he may not endorse WSR.  Without Ouru's endorsement, WSR will not get even 50% of GEMA vote.  Even if Ouru endorses WSR, he will not get the same amount of GEMA as ouru got.

[Nefertiti]

Is there a Uhuru monument in Kisumu yet?

[Kichwa]

The agenda here is to disrupt the status quo. Its not about love or monuments.

Is there a Uhuru monument in Kisumu yet?

[Nefertiti]

Pundit's suggested it severally, just wondering if something's cropped up somewhere. I misread him perhaps.

The agenda here is to disrupt the status quo. Its not about love or monuments.

Is there a Uhuru monument in Kisumu yet?

[Kichwa]

Ruto has not beaten GEMA or anybody yet.  Its one think to be a king maker and another to be king. A lot will happen between now and 2022 so spare us the worrior bravado and tell Ruto to stop screaming at shadows. He is not scaring anybody but just making himself look scared of his own shadow.

That probably explain why Raila and rest have not managed to beat GEMA. You don't face gema with weakness and meekness and expect to win.Now Raila is out there cleaning and dinning with Mungiki . Ohoo so Ruto plays nice and Uhuru doesn't get mad. Nope - you have to demonstrate to Uhuru that he doesn't stick to the deal - and it's self-assured destruction. I think Sonko has the playbook for that...and he won Nairobi despite GEMA controlling more than half of Jubilee. Ruto has to make sure Raila get NO space..no peace..no inch..and has to make Uhuru not get too nice or carried away with his peace agenda. That I think he has done successfully so far. Raila has been left to clean Mungiki hands and veteran harambee stars players. He speaks about 2022 - and Jubilee go hammers on him - he had to retract . That is how to play the game. Ruto job is basically to neutralize and sabotage Raila ..because Raila remain his main opponent.

Ruto has to drawn the sand early so those thinking of PM or extending Uhuru term knows they got a big messy fight coming if they insist - and so they'll get discouraged early enough.

You should take your own advise about being a cold blooded political pundit.  You are too tied emotionally to Ruto to make reasonable observation.  For example, you say talk about WSR being tough on Ouru.  WSR needs Ouru but I do not see how Ouru needs WSR. Therefore why should Ruto go rogue on Ouru publicly.  That may just make Ouru mad and then he may not endorse WSR.  Without Ouru's endorsement, WSR will not get even 50% of GEMA vote.  Even if Ouru endorses WSR, he will not get the same amount of GEMA as ouru got.

[GeeMail]

Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html

[Nefertiti]

Meaning he is a real threat to the status quo and the dynasties.

Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html

[GeeMail]

Meaning he is a real threat to the status quo and the dynasties.

Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html

Are Weta and Mudavadi also part of the dynasties according to your algorithm?

[Nefertiti]

Meaning he is a real threat to the status quo and the dynasties.

Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html

Are Weta and Mudavadi also part of the dynasties according to your algorithm?

Mdvd is part of the dynasties of course. He's also Raila's sidekick.