Raila Devolution Proposal

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

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Has me confused.

He wants 14 new units on top of the counties.  The closest I come to understanding it is, he wants the counties to be contained within these 14 units.  But he says nothing about what happens to county governors etc.

My preference would be, if you devolve into 14 units, let's call them states, they should decide how to partition themselves into smaller units.  In the US, states most often have counties, but these can be parishes in others like Louisiana.  And the Federal government or constitution has no say on how the individual states decide to partition themselves.

I think for devolution to work, real autonomy has to be considered.  People tend to make better decisions when they feel they have some skin in the game.

Raila told the Devolution Conference on Wednesday that Kenya should now adopt three tiers of government, a proposal that was shelved before the 2010 referendum.

"As a matter of lasting solution to the problem posed by sizes of devolved units, we need to bite the bullet and revisit the structure of devolution," Raila said.

"... the Bomas draft divided Kenya into 14 regions, it is time to look at how to recover this original spirit.. my proposal is we adopt a three-tier system of government."

Raila said Kenya should retain the current Counties but establish 14 regional or provincial blocks as units of disbursement of resources and the National government.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/04/25/raila-proposes-three-tier-government-to-enhance-devolution_c1749354

[GeeMail]

It's indeed confusing. Ruto interpreted it in the same way you do. Asking why should we pile more trouble on Kenyans when counties are already in place? Methinks Raila needs to explain it further. I thought he meant 14 regional governments and 47 counties under them. Perhaps then we have 14 governors and 47 counties under them, sort of like districts of them days under a PC. Since financial viability is the big question, it means the issues of revenue collection and allocation then go to the 14 units rather than 47 unmanageable, corrupt and tribal enclaves that we have today. Then administratively, we have a parliamentary system rather than a presidential one. The proposal was mainly on a financial basis, but it seems he's also speaking on the parliamentary system. That is what gets Ruto really worked up. He opposed it last time and succeeded because Kibaki's PNU wanted a strongman for president.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It's indeed confusing. Ruto interpreted it in the same way you do. Asking why should we pile more trouble on Kenyans when counties are already in place? Methinks Raila needs to explain it further. I thought he meant 14 regional governments and 47 counties under them. Perhaps then we have 14 governors and 47 counties under them, sort of like districts of them days under a PC. Since financial viability is the big question, it means the issues of revenue collection and allocation then go to the 14 units rather than 47 unmanageable, corrupt and tribal enclaves that we have today. Then administratively, we have a parliamentary system rather than a presidential one. The proposal was mainly on a financial basis, but it seems he's also speaking on the parliamentary system. That is what gets Ruto really worked up. He opposed it last time and succeeded because Kibaki's PNU wanted a strongman for president.

My preference would be to forego the 47 counties altogether and go with 14 or less regions in real Federal system.  The regions then get to decide their governing structures, how they choose their leadership etc.  Some regions will go with the bloated governments, others might see sense in going leaner.  But it should be left to those levels to make this call.

[RV Pundit]

14 counties - how would you split kenya into arbitrary 14 states?  Big tribes will dominate the 14 States and lord off the small tribes. 47 counties is the magic. It just about 42 tribes - with each county bar a few homegenous - with about 5 city counties that are cosmopolitan.In principal - federalism can be done on the 47 counties - and roughly we are around 50M - so each county is roughly 1M people. That is not a small unit.

What we need is to increasingly add more responsibilities to counties until it become federalism - slowly and responsibly.

We also need to redraw the boundaries after census to make sure each county is at least 1M people.

And 47 counties didn't just come out of nowhere...kenyans were asked by British in 1962..where they wanted to belong..and they chose around 40 district with borders strictly along tribal lines...Moi+Kenyatta added a few...but overally Kenya should be split into 42 tribal regions....at least any tribe that has  500K people deserve a county...and those should eventually become states or federal republic.

My preference would be to forego the 47 counties altogether and go with 14 or less regions in real Federal system.  The regions then get to decide their governing structures, how they choose their leadership etc.  Some regions will go with the bloated governments, others might see sense in going leaner.  But it should be left to those levels to make this call.

[Kichwa]

Good argument for the 47 but I would like to hear more about the 14 and the three tier system.  I think the debate on how we govern ourselves is overdue and should not be stifled.

14 counties - how would you split kenya into arbitrary 14 states?  Big tribes will dominate the 14 States and lord off the small tribes. 47 counties is the magic. It just about 42 tribes - with each county bar a few homegenous - with about 5 city counties that are cosmopolitan.In principal - federalism can be done on the 47 counties - and roughly we are around 50M - so each county is roughly 1M people. That is not a small unit.

What we need is to increasingly add more responsibilities to counties until it become federalism - slowly and responsibly.

We also need to redraw the boundaries after census to make sure each county is at least 1M people.

And 47 counties didn't just come out of nowhere...kenyans were asked by British in 1962..where they wanted to belong..and they chose around 40 district with borders strictly along tribal lines...Moi+Kenyatta added a few...but overally Kenya should be split into 42 tribal regions....at least any tribe that has  500K people deserve a county...and those should eventually become states or federal republic.

My preference would be to forego the 47 counties altogether and go with 14 or less regions in real Federal system.  The regions then get to decide their governing structures, how they choose their leadership etc.  Some regions will go with the bloated governments, others might see sense in going leaner.  But it should be left to those levels to make this call.

[yulemsee]

3 tier system is bullshit, either merge the counties or leave them as is, this just looks like a ploy to create position for the likes of joho so they can continue supporting Raila

[Kichwa]

2 tier system is not a true devolution.  We need bigger self-sustaining units that can then be subdivided into counties or municipalities. Kenya is the size of Texas and yet Kenya has 47 devolved units while Texas is one of 50 states in the USA.  What we really have in Kenya is not devolution but 47 counties under one government. We need to decide whether we want a true devolution or keep the almighty central government.  Ruto's dream is to be Kenya's strong-man and that is why he is opposed to bigger self-sustaining units and a third tier of governance.

3 tier system is bullshit, either merge the counties or leave them as is, this just looks like a ploy to create position for the likes of joho so they can continue supporting Raila

[RV Pundit]

Nobody is going to give up their counties. We had long debate in 2010 and eventually settle at what we have.

2 tier system is not a true devolution.  We need bigger self-sustaining units that can then be subdivided into counties or municipalities. Kenya is the size of Texas and yet Kenya has 47 devolved units while Texas is one of 50 states in the USA.  What we really have in Kenya is not devolution but 47 counties under one government. We need to decide whether we want a true devolution or keep the almighty central government.  Ruto's dream is to be Kenya's strong-man and that is why he is opposed to bigger self-sustaining units and a third tier of governance.

[Kichwa]

Its going to require persuasion with details. Most people wanted to cling to the central government and the old administrative system.  Counties could still remain intact as the first tier of devolution.

Nobody is going to give up their counties. We had long debate in 2010 and eventually settle at what we have.

2 tier system is not a true devolution.  We need bigger self-sustaining units that can then be subdivided into counties or municipalities. Kenya is the size of Texas and yet Kenya has 47 devolved units while Texas is one of 50 states in the USA.  What we really have in Kenya is not devolution but 47 counties under one government. We need to decide whether we want a true devolution or keep the almighty central government.  Ruto's dream is to be Kenya's strong-man and that is why he is opposed to bigger self-sustaining units and a third tier of governance.

[RV Pundit]

Why are large units - more viable. Seem the ant-thesis of devolution. Those 14 counties will only make sense if we are going federal...not devolution. But knowing our tribal tapestry it's going to be hard splitting kenya into 24 units.

Anyway I think both ideas - executive pm elected by PM (parliamentary systems) and 14 counties will fail like it did in 2010!

Its going to require persuasion with details. Most people wanted to cling to the central government and the old administrative system.  Counties could still remain intact as the first tier of devolution.

[Nefertiti]

Kenya is devolved not federal. We copied our "devolution" from the UK which has only 3 devolved units plus a big central English country. Unlike the US or German federalism which is about the economy, the UK is about political accomodation of autonomous tribes. The English majority, the Scots, the Welsh, the Irish.

Kenya's devolution is first about tribalism - due to domination by Kalenjin and GEMA - so in this sense it's better to just shift the Kuria to Kisii, etc.

The regionalism is about economics and should be carefully crafted along these lines. Not the supraethnic "Ukambani" or "Coast" which we scrapped recently. SA has a 3-tier system and parliamentary. How has it worked out? I think it's too early to tell? Also SA and the countries with national-state-municipal layers have much bigger economies than ours.

Personally I support parliamentary with the present counties. But the new system is only 5years old. Give it 20years otherwise on what basis is the debate now?

[Kichwa]

This is not 2010-things have changed.  There will be a compromise but things will have to change.  This is not all about Kalenjins and Ruto.  There are other Kenyans too and the upende usipende Ruto/kalenjin attitude is not going to work any more.

Why are large units - more viable. Seem the ant-thesis of devolution. Those 14 counties will only make sense if we are going federal...not devolution. But knowing our tribal tapestry it's going to be hard splitting kenya into 24 units.

Anyway I think both ideas - executive pm elected by PM (parliamentary systems) and 14 counties will fail like it did in 2010!

Its going to require persuasion with details. Most people wanted to cling to the central government and the old administrative system.  Counties could still remain intact as the first tier of devolution.

[Kichwa]

Kenyans must find what works for them regardless of what other systems have.

Kenya is devolved not federal. We copied our "devolution" from the UK which has only 3 devolved units plus a big central English country. Unlike the US or German federalism which is about the economy, the UK is about political accomodation of autonomous tribes. The English majority, the Scots, the Welsh, the Irish.

Kenya's devolution is first about tribalism - due to domination by Kalenjin and GEMA - so in this sense it's better to just shift the Kuria to Kisii, etc.

The regionalism is about economics and should be carefully crafted along these lines. Not the supraethnic "Ukambani" or "Coast" which we scrapped recently. SA has a 3-tier system and parliamentary. How has it worked out? I think it's too early to tell? Also SA and the countries with national-state-municipal layers have much bigger economies than ours.

Personally I support parliamentary with the present counties. But the new system is only 5years old. Give it 20years otherwise on what basis is the debate now?

[Nefertiti]

I agree yet experiments are costly in time and resources. The 2010 experiment needs time to yield results before we declare it a failure or a success. 5 years is just too short to test a governance system.

Kenyans must find what works for them regardless of what other systems have.

[Kichwa]

When it come constitutions,  everything is an experiment even when it has worked/failed in the neighboring country.  There is therefore no way around experimenting unless you do not want to be better for fear of change.

I agree yet experiments are costly in time and resources. The 2010 experiment needs time to yield results before we declare it a failure or a success. 5 years is just too short to test a governance system.

Kenyans must find what works for them regardless of what other systems have.

[Nefertiti]

I just suggest 20 years for a governance system. It's premature to try 3rd tier when 2-tier outcome is unknown.

When it come constitutions,  everything is an experiment even when it has worked/failed in the neighboring country.  There is therefore no way around experimenting unless you do not want to be better for fear of change.

I agree yet experiments are costly in time and resources. The 2010 experiment needs time to yield results before we declare it a failure or a success. 5 years is just too short to test a governance system.

Kenyans must find what works for them regardless of what other systems have.

[Ole]

Raila's proposal is nothing but a way to create a more bloated system where big tribes will have more say and the largest share of resources. small tribes like mine prefer smaller units like counties where we can manage our own resources. So far devolution is really working except that corruption is still hampering progress; but this is also happening at the national government. What parliament needs to do is establish strong anti corruption network targeting the use of resources in counties. Instead of bigger governance blocks we need to send more power and money to the wards like Ruto is proposing. I may disagree with some of Ruto politics but I am with him on this. We can however have a parliamentary system of government.

[RV Pundit]

Exactly.

Raila's proposal is nothing but a way to create a more bloated system where big tribes will have more say and the largest share of resources. small tribes like mine prefer smaller units like counties where we can manage our own resources. So far devolution is really working except that corruption is still hampering progress; but this is also happening at the national government. What parliament needs to do is establish strong anti corruption network targeting the use of resources in counties. Instead of bigger governance blocks we need to send more power and money to the wards like Ruto is proposing. I may disagree with some of Ruto politics but I am with him on this. We can however have a parliamentary system of government.

[Kichwa]

Its three levels, that means the third level of government will still be controlled by the smaller tribes and enjoy economies of scale at the same time. We should have kept the provinces and maybe split Rift Valley and a few more to get to 14 jimbos.

Exactly.

Raila's proposal is nothing but a way to create a more bloated system where big tribes will have more say and the largest share of resources. small tribes like mine prefer smaller units like counties where we can manage our own resources. So far devolution is really working except that corruption is still hampering progress; but this is also happening at the national government. What parliament needs to do is establish strong anti corruption network targeting the use of resources in counties. Instead of bigger governance blocks we need to send more power and money to the wards like Ruto is proposing. I may disagree with some of Ruto politics but I am with him on this. We can however have a parliamentary system of government.

[Nefertiti]

I trust you don't all believe Raila is genuine in his push for "inclusion" and regional government. This is just a ploy to upstage Ruto's 2022 plans. The small tribes will all line up in Raila's corner as we can already see with Kalonzo. While also regionalism appeals to subpar kingpins Madvds, Weta, Joho, etc. Ruto is being seen as selfish wanting to keep all the power to himself. In case of any negotiations Raila will "compromise" and drop the regions, leaving PM as the red line.

This is just 2022, not reforms or inclusion. Ruto is damned if he does, damned if he does not.