NASA break up near complete

[RV Pundit]

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It appears it will break first into two - ODM and Ford-ANC-WDK - roughly split into half.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/03/16/mudavadi-kalonzo-and-weta-meet-in-karen-as-handshake-events-unfold_c1731185

[Kadudu]

NASA is now past tense. As of the three remaining, they will have no muscle for now and even 2022. How will the three agree on a presidential candidate? Kalonzo has to be on the ballot and Mudavadi too. Weta is a flower girl and he can only live with Mudavadi being on the ballot.

[RV Pundit]

2022 that is what will happen. Kalonzo will ran as Kamba candidate - and most likely MaDVD may convince Wetangula to be on the same seat - or well all of them may ran - I think Wetangula will probably join Ruto - his bukusu are already half way inside Jubilee and he is lonely & broke.

But btw now and 2022 - if they hold together - at about 20% of Kenya (assuming they can hold onto half of NASA) - that good enough leverage - when Jubilee kicks ODM butt out - which will happen sooner than later.

Jubilee basically has two halves of NASA to use to beat NASA  . This capitulation is hilarious. It's gonna be ODM versus NASA for next few years squabbling and fighting - while jubilee will be governing.

NASA is now past tense. As of the three remaining, they will have no muscle for now and even 2022. How will the three agree on a presidential candidate? Kalonzo has to be on the ballot and Mudavadi too. Weta is a flower girl and he can only live with Mudavadi being on the ballot.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto wins in a divided opposition. Unless of course Raila succeds in dividing Jubilee. By inciting a GEMA rebellion.

[RV Pundit]

The elephant in the house is Uhuru. As long as Ruto as Uhuru - 2022 is a walk over. In fact there is no need of holding an election.

Ruto wins in a divided opposition. Unless of course Raila succeds in dividing Jubilee. By inciting a GEMA rebellion.

[Pajero]

The elephant is not Uhuru,its the okuyu nation,Uhuru only has one vote

[RV Pundit]

You know that sound as stupid as saying Raila only has one vote. Ruto can still win without Uhuru - but it won't be easy. I think that the Plan B - for Ruto to build a buffer enough to counter GEMA - and looking at the disarray in NASA and the capitulation of Raila - it possible.

The elephant is not Uhuru,its the okuyu nation,Uhuru only has one vote

[Pajero]

Thats my point Pundito,GEMA are known to preach water at day and drinking wine at night.Ruto should not count on the GEMA votes.Word on the ground is that they will substitute Ruto with Kalonzo and they are home and dry.They already have 6 million votes,add kalonzos 2 million and its game over.Politics is about numbers broda,not settling imaginary political debts.As of the arrow wielding RV worriers,plans are underway to deal with them as of when time arises.They say 2007 they were caught unawares but this tym round,wako chonjo.

[RV Pundit]

If we relied on you "word on the ground" the last 15yrs - we would have got everything right - . I do understand after being unable to beat GEMA - you guys are literally giving up - you said water n oil didn't mix up - said bla bla Ruto will not get 50% share - and now GEMA+Kalenjin are already siring children including from neighbour (ODM and you still think some GEMA upstart - can beat a Jubilee or KANU machinery. Where would one start - and who in GEMA will even attempt to do that? Uhuru yes is looking to continue and I think Ruto still need him - so in my view - the real loser in 2022 is any ambitious politician in GEMA who thought Uhuru will be retiring.

I am seeing Putin-Medvev situation btw Uhuru-Ruto. Otherwise what GEMA or Kalenjin (who are those? ) want is irrevelant when they have appointed Kings like Luo people have done. Watch the real guys (Uhuru, Ruto, Raila, Kalonzo, MaDVD, on that order) - not the fool or folks on ground

The fools on ground will fight & kill their neighbour - while Karen elite will be playing golf.

Uhuru has to be watched keenly because ever since his father Jomo nobody has come close to putting GEMA in his basket like he has done. It's very hard now to find even a Kanjora in entire Kikuyuland who is not Jubilee. There is barely any dissenting voice - maybe a whimper from Karua once in a while -- the man has done to GEMA what Raila did to Luos. Totally subjugated them. Ruto did that long time ago and in 2010 opposed the katiba just to demonstrate his power over the then 5m kalenjin.

Like Raila or Moi or Kagame or Museveni or Zuma or Mugabe before - once you dominate people that way - then naturally you can only think of your daughter or son or wife or even girlfriend as the heir-apparent. In my view Uhuru intends to have another Kenyatta - possibly his son take over. Any resistance will be crushed.

Thats my point Pundito,GEMA are known to preach water at day and drinking wine at night.Ruto should not count on the GEMA votes.Word on the ground is that they will substitute Ruto with Kalonzo and they are home and dry.They already have 6 million votes,add kalonzos 2 million and its game over.Politics is about numbers broda,not settling imaginary political debts.As of the arrow wielding RV worriers,plans are underway to deal with them as of when time arises.They say 2007 they were caught unawares but this tym round,wako chonjo.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The elephant is not Uhuru,its the okuyu nation,Uhuru only has one vote

Then you haven't heard that they will give their votes to avoid IDPs.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Thats my point Pundito,GEMA are known to preach water at day and drinking wine at night.Ruto should not count on the GEMA votes.Word on the ground is that they will substitute Ruto with Kalonzo and they are home and dry.They already have 6 million votes,add kalonzos 2 million and its game over.Politics is about numbers broda,not settling imaginary political debts.As of the arrow wielding RV worriers,plans are underway to deal with them as of when time arises.They say 2007 they were caught unawares but this tym round,wako chonjo.

I think they want GEMA to have options in 2022.  Not to be tied and bound to someone that is probably no longer of value to them.

[hk]

Thats my point Pundito,GEMA are known to preach water at day and drinking wine at night.Ruto should not count on the GEMA votes.Word on the ground is that they will substitute Ruto with Kalonzo and they are home and dry.They already have 6 million votes,add kalonzos 2 million and its game over.Politics is about numbers broda,not settling imaginary political debts.As of the arrow wielding RV worriers,plans are underway to deal with them as of when time arises.They say 2007 they were caught unawares but this tym round,wako chonjo.

There's zero possibility of GEMA supporting Kalonzo. I don't know which ground is this, however Mutua would be more plausible but unlikely candidate who could get GEMA support.

[hk]

If we relied on you "word on the ground" the last 15yrs - we would have got everything right - . I do understand after being unable to beat GEMA - you guys are literally giving up - you said water n oil didn't mix up - said bla bla Ruto will not get 50% share - and now GEMA+Kalenjin are already siring children including from neighbour (ODM and you still think some GEMA upstart - can beat a Jubilee or KANU machinery. Where would one start - and who in GEMA will even attempt to do that? Uhuru yes is looking to continue and I think Ruto still need him - so in my view - the real loser in 2022 is any ambitious politician in GEMA who thought Uhuru will be retiring.

I am seeing Putin-Medvev situation btw Uhuru-Ruto. Otherwise what GEMA or Kalenjin (who are those? ) want is irrevelant when they have appointed Kings like Luo people have done. Watch the real guys (Uhuru, Ruto, Raila, Kalonzo, MaDVD, on that order) - not the fool or folks on ground

The fools on ground will fight & kill their neighbour - while Karen elite will be playing golf.

Uhuru has to be watched keenly because ever since his father Jomo nobody has come close to putting GEMA in his basket like he has done. It's very hard now to find even a Kanjora in entire Kikuyuland who is not Jubilee. There is barely any dissenting voice - maybe a whimper from Karua once in a while -- the man has done to GEMA what Raila did to Luos. Totally subjugated them. Ruto did that long time ago and in 2010 opposed the katiba just to demonstrate his power over the then 5m kalenjin.

Like Raila or Moi or Kagame or Museveni or Zuma or Mugabe before - once you dominate people that way - then naturally you can only think of your daughter or son or wife or even girlfriend as the heir-apparent. In my view Uhuru intends to have another Kenyatta - possibly his son take over. Any resistance will be crushed.

Pundit I think you're taking this joke little too far, ati uhuru's kid? What will undo kenyatta's plan is poor economy(really households and businesses income growth) and lack of major infrastructure development in GEMA region. There are already major grumblings in GEMA regions missing the kibaki's economic stewardship.

[Kadudu]

If we relied on you "word on the ground" the last 15yrs - we would have got everything right - . I do understand after being unable to beat GEMA - you guys are literally giving up - you said water n oil didn't mix up - said bla bla Ruto will not get 50% share - and now GEMA+Kalenjin are already siring children including from neighbour (ODM and you still think some GEMA upstart - can beat a Jubilee or KANU machinery. Where would one start - and who in GEMA will even attempt to do that? Uhuru yes is looking to continue and I think Ruto still need him - so in my view - the real loser in 2022 is any ambitious politician in GEMA who thought Uhuru will be retiring.

I am seeing Putin-Medvev situation btw Uhuru-Ruto. Otherwise what GEMA or Kalenjin (who are those? ) want is irrevelant when they have appointed Kings like Luo people have done. Watch the real guys (Uhuru, Ruto, Raila, Kalonzo, MaDVD, on that order) - not the fool or folks on ground

The fools on ground will fight & kill their neighbour - while Karen elite will be playing golf.

Uhuru has to be watched keenly because ever since his father Jomo nobody has come close to putting GEMA in his basket like he has done. It's very hard now to find even a Kanjora in entire Kikuyuland who is not Jubilee. There is barely any dissenting voice - maybe a whimper from Karua once in a while -- the man has done to GEMA what Raila did to Luos. Totally subjugated them. Ruto did that long time ago and in 2010 opposed the katiba just to demonstrate his power over the then 5m kalenjin.

Like Raila or Moi or Kagame or Museveni or Zuma or Mugabe before - once you dominate people that way - then naturally you can only think of your daughter or son or wife or even girlfriend as the heir-apparent. In my view Uhuru intends to have another Kenyatta - possibly his son take over. :DAny resistance will be crushed.

[RV Pundit]

HK I don't do jokes - I analyze power & it's brokers dispassionately. Show me where a kikuyu anywhere will start his revolution against a Kenyatta. Heck show me even one independent minded outside Ndii & Martha now - the Miguna Migunas of GEMA . Uhuru dominates GEMA (maybe a little of meru is not in kabisa) completely now. I was even half-expecting some noise from Muranga - but it's all quiet there and there is no one inspiring out there who can talk back at Uhuru leave alone challenge the muthamaki. At least Kalenjin are refusing to be totally dominated by Ruto - and there is some robust debate once in a while.

I honestly don't know which economy and indicators you're watching - Kenyan economy is growing at 6% - that is nothing to be sneared at. The economy is generating nearly 5 billion dollars every year of new "money".What made Uhuru so qualified in 2002 when all Kikuyu abandoned Kibaki and rushed to him. And even now what makes him more qualified than say you. It question of money, influence, power and name it. The Kenyattas right now dominate GEMA in ways they last were dominated by Jomo.

Power concede nothing. The way I see 1) Uhuru doesn't intend to retire 2) Raila doesn't intend to retire. Uhuru has 10 yr term limit to contend. Raila has basically ran out of aces! Fidel his heir-apparent overdosed. That leave him with Rosemary the daughter who is also sickly. The other ugly looking son will need some plastic surgery and growth hormones pretty quickly. I think right now Raila is vulnerable - but there is nobody in Luo community who can give it a try. Maybe Orengo can try - but the guy is as old as Raila. But definitely  UhuRuto have him where they want him - it  a question of time before he is pushed off the cliff. He'll have no where to land except the abysss. He has basically destroyed all the fall-backs position he would have gone to.

Just a question of time - and Raila is history. KAPUT.

Pundit I think you're taking this joke little too far, ati uhuru's kid? What will undo kenyatta's plan is poor economy(really households and businesses income growth) and lack of major infrastructure development in GEMA region. There are already major grumblings in GEMA regions missing the kibaki's economic stewardship.

[hk]

HK I don't do jokes - I analyze power & it's brokers dispassionately. Show me where a kikuyu anywhere will start his revolution against a Kenyatta. Heck show me even one independent minded outside Ndii & Martha now - the Miguna Migunas of GEMA . Uhuru dominates GEMA (maybe a little of meru is not in kabisa) completely now. I was even half-expecting some noise from Muranga - but it's all quiet there and there is no one inspiring out there who can talk back at Uhuru leave alone challenge the muthamaki. At least Kalenjin are refusing to be totally dominated by Ruto - and there is some robust debate once in a while.

I honestly don't know which economy and indicators you're watching - Kenyan economy is growing at 6% - that is nothing to be sneared at. The economy is generating nearly 5 billion dollars every year of new "money".What made Uhuru so qualified in 2002 when all Kikuyu abandoned Kibaki and rushed to him. And even now what makes him more qualified than say you. It question of money, influence, power and name it. The Kenyattas right now dominate GEMA in ways they last were dominated by Jomo.

Power concede nothing. The way I see 1) Uhuru doesn't intend to retire 2) Raila doesn't intend to retire. Uhuru has 10 yr term limit to contend. Raila has basically ran out of aces! Fidel his heir-apparent overdosed. That leave him with Rosemary the daughter who is also sickly. The other ugly looking son will need some plastic surgery and growth hormones pretty quickly. I think right now Raila is vulnerable - but there is nobody in Luo community who can give it a try. Maybe Orengo can try - but the guy is as old as Raila. But definitely  UhuRuto have him where they want him - it  a question of time before he is pushed off the cliff. He'll have no where to land except the abysss. He has basically destroyed all the fall-backs position he would have gone to.

There is now no one who can take on uhuru head on but its coming once uhuru retires. You think he has delusions of extending term limits? Or changing  to parliamentary system so that he can remain relevant as an mp? Economy is growing at 5.5% but isn't broad based and its being driven by government spending. As such the kawaida mwaninchi isn't feeling it. Besides kenya has promised to lower budget deficit to 3.3% to get IMF standby loan. This will mean huge cuts on spending and increased taxation(e.g VAT on fuel).
2002 only kiambu voted for uhuru, kibaki swept the rest of GEMA regions including nakuru. The fault-lines will start in either Nyeri,lakipia and Meru. Look out for  Nderitu Mureithi who ran against Jubilee candidate supported by kiunjuri,ruto and uhuru. The old kibaki network support him but maybe he drinks a little too much or Kimemia in Nyandarua. 
On a lighter note, go easy on Raila's son that was brutal.

[RV Pundit]

kibaki arse was saved by Raila tosha otherwise uhuru was winning 2002 and Gideon would in his second term if moi had his way.Kenyatta after pev 2007 bought himself kikuyu nation.Its like jomo and mau mau.You cannot top that.The mois flew to plat polo with kings of brunei and uhuru stuck his neck out...nearly got done by ICC.Now this uhuru is different.Why would he be buying nmg from aghakhan.This guy who made 30b in one deal sgr...wanjigi knows it...we know it...and he aint going to sell stale milk with his young bro at brookside.The man will stick around...and his son is probably taking swa and kikuyu lesson so he can inherit ruto in 2032.Power concede nothing.The naive jaluos who think uhuru is not corrupt cant be helped...who ate SGR..start from there b4 you go for Ruto who  is eating his 10 everywhere else the boss has no interest in.

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru is not special nor even charismatic as Matiba. However he is lucky and entitled with pedigree pouring from the ears. He hasn't worked as hard or smart as Raila, Ruto or Kalonzo. As soon as he steps out of power he will be deposed probably with Ruto's greenlight. Moi was much more entrenched but still lost Kalenjin within 5 years... not even Biwott or Kosgey - leave alone clueless Gideon - could beat Ruto. Same fate awaits Uhuru who unlike Raila has no "hope" or "justice" or "Canaan" carrot to dangle.

[veritas]

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if an Uhuru-Railo alliance emerges. Uhuru is a sentimental chap and probably reflects back to the time of Kenyatta-Jaramogi alliance. I'd welcome an Uhuru-Raila alliance over Ruto or Kalonzo or Mudavadi.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if an Uhuru-Railo alliance emerges. Uhuru is a sentimental chap and probably reflects back to the time of Kenyatta-Jaramogi alliance. I'd welcome an Uhuru-Raila alliance over Ruto or Kalonzo or Mudavadi.

It could be.  The campaign for 2022 is already be on.