Hustler: Is This The End of The Road?

[RV Pundit]

Based on today appointments - of CAS, PS and Ambassador - I think even the crumbs are off table. The list seem to have come straight from Ruto 's Harambee Anex. Poor Raila might have fallen for the same trick maDVD fell - hook, line and sinker.

[Nefertiti]

We always saw this coming: the Raila move to break the Ruto-GEMA deal - which will be seen as "personal" just as the new deal. Ruto tried to stymie this by merging Jubilee Party and inducting many non-GEMA. This cost him GEMA trust among Kabogo, PK, etc and earned Munya cheap currency.

The new power play must be Raila incites anti-Ruto rebellion in Jubilee ala Rainbow/LDP. While Ruto stokes anti-Raila rebellion in NASA. Key card: will Raila back a PK against Ruto or go for it again? Don't take it for granted - he could back a GEMA-Kalenjin or GEMA-? ticket. Ruto may be unable to cash his GEMA check afterall - and instead need to pamper them like the spoilt brats they are.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

We always saw this coming: the Raila move to break the Ruto-GEMA deal - which will be seen as "personal" just as the new deal. Ruto tried to stymie this by merging Jubilee Party and inducting many non-GEMA. This cost him GEMA trust among Kabogo, PK, etc and earned Munya cheap currency.

The new power play must be Raila incites anti-Ruto rebellion in Jubilee ala Rainbow/LDP. While Ruto stokes anti-Raila rebellion in NASA. Key card: will Raila back a PK against Ruto or go for it again? Don't take it for granted - he could back a GEMA-Kalenjin or GEMA-? ticket. Ruto may be unable to cash his GEMA check afterall - and instead need to pamper them like the spoilt brats they are.

Reconciliation will be the justification by GEMA for ditching the hustler.  It will be everyone for himself.  The constitution might not even be recognizable then.  Hard to tell these early days.

[RV Pundit]

Tough luck. Why would Uhuru ditch a reliable partner like Ruto for Raila. Somethings can defy logic and yours is certainly one of them. In fact as days go by - this appear like a jail free card for Raila and friends who committed treason - there is basically nothing in there.

Reconciliation will be the justification by GEMA for ditching the hustler.  It will be everyone for himself.  The constitution might not even be recognizable then.  Hard to tell these early days.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Tough luck. Why would Uhuru ditch a reliable partner like Ruto for Raila. Somethings can defy logic and yours is certainly one of them. In fact as days go by - this appear like a jail free card for Raila and friends who committed treason - there is basically nothing in there.

Reconciliation will be the justification by GEMA for ditching the hustler.  It will be everyone for himself.  The constitution might not even be recognizable then.  Hard to tell these early days.

It's arguable that the hustler has morphed from reliable partner to reliable baggage.  Why exactly would Uhuru need him now?

[Nefertiti]

[RV Pundit]

I doubt Uhuru would "hide" such discussion with Ruto. It just probably that Raila insisted on Uhuru being alone. Ruto has been letting Uhuru have all the lime-light he needs because this is his legacy. It been that way post formation of Jubilee. It no longer the URP-TNA coalition days. So Uhuru as PORK of united Jubilee party doesn't need Ruto on his side when announcing cabinet or when receiving Raila & ODM defectors.

It appears all the NASA folks are keen to cross-over and join Jubilee. However the line up is clear. Ruto is deputy and the anointed succesor. That is not up for discussion or debate of any form.

Post 2010 Katiba - no tribe can do it alone - it got to be a coalition of two or three - I don't see how Uhuru will abandon a reliable partner for someone like Raila. That someone has to be smoking something else.

Also I see people talk about GEMA - there is nothing like that - there is Uhuru - the defacto GEMA king. Just like there is nothing like Luo - you're talking Raila. The same with Kalenjin - it just Ruto. Perhaps you can talk about Luhyas - & maybe Kambas - and of course the rest where the folks need to be convinced this way or that way.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee will soon look like this

[Nefertiti]

Pundit

Uhuru is not abandoning Ruto just leveraging the moment. A subtle business move. Don't tell me Ruto wants a 3rd principal in Jubilee. You're right about the solo Jubilee Party Leader.

Of course there is GEMA - the men who would select a new leader behind his back as soon as he left the hill. Wanjui, Kiraitu, Kirubi kind of oligarchs. Ruto too must contend with them. We can argue their influence.

I think it's an excellent time for a new opposition leader to emerge. As the old guard caves in to Jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto knows how to play power - games and soon Raila will be left high n dry. In the first place - he won't be allowed near power --- he seems content to be inside Jubilee tent and that is how it will remain. It amazing how ODM & NASA crumbled. It probably started with boycott of 26th.

There has been no GEMA post -kibaki regime. Uhuru hasn't needed to consult anybody.I believe right now he is in the same position that Raila and Ruto are in with regard to Luo or Kalenjin. It's a question of how they can jump. The very last of that resistance fizzled out last year after the GEMA population routed nearly all independent minded folks. All you have are Uhuru robots. There is barely any leader I know in GEMA land who made it outside Jubilee. I can't put a finger to even 1...maybe independent governor of Laikipia after fall out with Kiunjuri?

I don't see a new opposition emerging - It will still be Raila after he is booted out of Jubilee. The orphans including miguna and civil society have to wait out - nobody except perhaps Ruto - has the money and energy to do opposition work.

Pundit

Uhuru is not abandoning Ruto just leveraging the moment. A subtle business move. Don't tell me Ruto wants a 3rd principal in Jubilee. You're right about the solo Jubilee Party Leader.

Of course there is GEMA - the men who would select a new leader behind his back as soon as he left the hill. Wanjui, Kiraitu, Kirubi kind of oligarchs. Ruto too must contend with them. We can argue their influence.

I think it's an excellent time for a new opposition leader to emerge. As the old guard caves in to Jubilee.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If we give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to fix the country in good faith, it does not bode well for the hustler.  Of course some will say it's just another sign of his genius.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

There is the GEMA element.  Then we have to allow for the possibility that they are trying to end the ethnic mobilization thing, because they realize that sooner or later it will end up in disaster.  If they succeed on some level, that could create a very strange playing field in 2022.

[bryan275]

If we give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to fix the country in good faith, it does not bode well for the hustler.  Of course some will say it's just another sign of his genius.

Hustler ni political genius.  All he has to do is get up on any given day.

I am very skeptical about these moves.  It's probably the haves sensing the moves amongst the people.  This is self preservation.

I think

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If we give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they are trying to fix the country in good faith, it does not bode well for the hustler.  Of course some will say it's just another sign of his genius.

Hustler ni political genius.  All he has to do is get up on any given day.

I am very skeptical about these moves.  It's probably the haves sensing the moves amongst the people.  This is self preservation.

I think

It is indeed preservation.  They will make sure they don't kill the cash cow.  The five year cycle of convulsions is not ultimately sustainable.  That is the long view. 

Short term, I think Raila just wants to get back to comfortable life away from the unwashed masses and tear gas.  Kamwana is probably inundated with "rudisha mkono" reminders on one hand and GEMA demands on the other.  He just wants to retire without hassles to a favorite drinking hole.

[RV Pundit]

It's hilarious reading your half-thought ideas. You see if the choice had was btw appeasing Ruto or Raila - you know what they would do. Raila has shown for 2 elections that he has no leverage over Uhuru or GEMA. Gema understands very clearly from 2007 what a scorn RV or Ruto are capable of doing to their 1m people in diaspora - they send nearly 0.5m of them to IDP camps despite the president being KIbaki and in charge of security agency - that is the leverage Ruto has over GEMA and there is nothing they can do short of moving en-masse out of RV. So stop engaging in wishful thinking. Raila has capitulated.I think he has become as senile as Moi. NASA has crumbled - they just fired Wetangula - and that goes the remaining Bukusu - in Raila camp .

Ruto 2022 seem like a forgone conclusion now. Maybe Raila can offer to extend Uhuru term - by removing the term limit . That is only threat to Ruto now. Not Raila.

There is the GEMA element.  Then we have to allow for the possibility that they are trying to end the ethnic mobilization thing, because they realize that sooner or later it will end up in disaster.  If they succeed on some level, that could create a very strange playing field in 2022.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It's hilarious reading your half-thought ideas. You see if the choice had was btw appeasing Ruto or Raila - you know what they would do. Raila has shown for 2 elections that he has no leverage over Uhuru or GEMA. Gema understands very clearly from 2007 what a scorn RV or Ruto are capable of doing to their 1m people in diaspora - they send nearly 0.5m of them to IDP camps despite the president being KIbaki and in charge of security agency - that is the leverage Ruto has over GEMA and there is nothing they can do short of moving en-masse out of RV. So stop engaging in wishful thinking. Raila has capitulated.I think he has become as senile as Moi. NASA has crumbled - they just fired Wetangula - and that goes the remaining Bukusu - in Raila camp .

Ruto 2022 seem like a forgone conclusion now. Maybe Raila can offer to extend Uhuru term - by removing the term limit . That is only threat to Ruto now. Not Raila.

There is the GEMA element.  Then we have to allow for the possibility that they are trying to end the ethnic mobilization thing, because they realize that sooner or later it will end up in disaster.  If they succeed on some level, that could create a very strange playing field in 2022.

Your faith in Kalenjin violence as being leverage, is exactly what Raila and Uhuru seem to be out to destroy.  Nobody is scared of anyone.  And that is the real problem. 

If they can get everybody on board against overly ethnicized politics, that would leave the hustler with only Kalenjin threat of violence as a selling point.  Not a great place to be.

[RV Pundit]

Okay wake us up when this lofty dream of kicking out ethnicity or tribalism is achieved by UhuRaila . And correction Ruto has more cards or leverage - than just that - obviously making Uhuru pork twice, being loyal and trustworthy count for something - and of course there is that leverage of diaspora kikuyus in RV. Raila brings what to the table -? I don't know - he has no numbers in parliament? He seem to have come minus his other principals -  I am sure we will be at this for quite sometime - but the more the days go by - the more hilarous this gets.

Your faith in Kalenjin violence as being leverage, is exactly what Raila and Uhuru seem to be out to destroy.  Nobody is scared of anyone.  And that is the real problem. 

If they can get everybody on board against overly ethnicized politics, that would leave the hustler with only Kalenjin threat of violence as a selling point.  Not a great place to be.

[gout]

The involvement of Kameru - NIS boss must have been to make it clear that the treason charges were not the Githu Muigai legal comedies was suggesting but some some assault the old man won't have survived. The Raila no conditionality hurried agreement were not about benefits but the threats of obliteration. The harassment of the senile Maina Wanjigi must have been a signal that we know no bounds - we are tired of your shit and we need closure to 2017!! NOW!

[RV Pundit]

That make some sense. The more I look at this the more I see it as "jail free" card. Raila you know after swearing himself in had not slept at home. I mean never seen such capitulation before. The following day Uhuru went ahead to appoint the remaining CAS - now the only positions left are 7 PS, chairmen of parastals and some few ambassadorial positions.

The involvement of Kameru - NIS boss must have been to make it clear that the treason charges were not the Githu Muigai legal comedies was suggesting but some some assault the old man won't have survived. The Raila no conditionality hurried agreement were not about benefits but the threats of obliteration. The harassment of the senile Maina Wanjigi must have been a signal that we know no bounds - we are tired of your shit and we need closure to 2017!! NOW!

[RV Pundit]

Meanwhile Prof Nyongo is with Uhuru in Cuba. Next ODM will be dissolving to join Jubilee soon
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