A economic avalanche is coming

[KenyanPlato]

The land trust me is gone. Even amongst Kalenjin. The land price in my shags are now as competitive as 40kms from Nairobi - land now sold in points - now 200K per point or plot - 30kms from Kericho town. My wife recently bought at 280K - in Malaa kamulu - that is 40kms from Nairobi...nearly same prize with my shags.

Most people in my place now own 1/4 or less than acre of land. Those luckly actually inherit 2-3 acres of land. Majority now inherit an acre or less of land. Their parents on average owned 10-20 acres - but gave birth to 10 kids.

Remember the arable land in kenya is just 11 percent - and most of it has been subdivided into tiny unproductive portions. Therefore you have kalenjin men flocking to be watchmen in Nairobi and many women now flocking into house girls.

Flower farms, sweat jobs and mass employers is only hope.

Yeah, Kenyans are a hard lot to understand through most of the economic models.
It is said that Kenyans are choosy even when unemployed. Many will reject a job and leave you bewildered, then you find them after an year and they are just doing somewhat 'fine'.

The issue is having a fall back position in land and shags home where you won't lack a house and food. Our peasantry land ownership makes nonsense of the grand scale wage based economic disruption. The hustle culture has also made Kenyan youths cocky sure that siwezi kosa kitu ya kufanya.


You cannot uproot the Kalenjin youths to Lamu even for jobs. They only want to join jeshi, police or funny NYS to march with spades 

The lot am finding ambitious is the single mothers and young women going to the gulf for house jobs.

Once we sort productivity bottlenecks in the hustles, incomes will rise. More investment into innovations, scaling up/expansion, more stock, improvements.

A hawker uses half day running from kanjo; only sells for an hour or two; 2-5 days earnings to bribe kanjo.  There was a story of a woman forced to close a pub in Kitengela. A simple pub employs 2-3 permanent wait; 2 more temps; a mutura/soup guy outside and still gives good money to the owner. One OCS and fellow buggers takes all the margins to go splash on malaya or build desolate house at home to be occupied once an year.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work

The problem is even without land the young can still generate income in the informal sector. Until kenyan markets are formalized fully you won't have kenyans in sweat shops. Which is a great thing for human dignity and quality of life. Even in poor populous countries like India there they won't embrace the American level of sweatshops in large scale. China was able to do it due to authoritarianism. They are having a hard time to keep it going

[RV Pundit]

The current state of play is worse in recent memory
USD is now 115 kshs to a dollar
Debt has increased by 500B kshs due to Kshs depreciation
Bitting fuel shortage
Inflation.

[gout]

Even the crazy electricity price cuts have crippled Kenya Power. Power outages are taking weeks to fix.

It is a 100 days of serious hopelessness.

[gout]

Sri Lanka has gone bust. Tamil Tigers civil war beckoning. These things once mismanaged have predictable outcomes.

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-protests-mk-stalin-tamil-refugees-7847136/lite/

The chronology shows it ain't different from ours.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/explaining-sri-lankas-economic-crisis/article65275579.ece/amp/

[gout]

Seems the plan was to hold on to shit till August but it is hitting the fan earlier.

https://www.facebook.com/nation/posts/10160407736459497

[RV Pundit]

Yes kenya is going srilank way unless something is done

[gout]

Even BBI's Ben Sihanya led KIPPRA approves the lords of poverty have messed up

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/-kenyans-worse-off-under-uhuruto-report--3772824

[RV Pundit]

Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru last budget on the background of collapsed economy. Ruto gov will throw this budget through the window and make radical suplimentary budget. Borana should concentrate on Upya party

LIVE | Analysis of #Budget2022KE https://t.co/VpftReDpRf

— NTV Kenya (@ntvkenya) April 7, 2022

[Georgesoros]

Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal

Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................

[RV Pundit]

Okay - re-assuring.

Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................

[gout]

We are talking of government created shortages not inflation. Shortages!

Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal

Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................

[Georgesoros]

We are talking of government created shortages not inflation. Shortages!

Shortage of nearly everything and prizes have doubled..dollar approaching 120..it's surreal

Did you just wake up from loong slumber.???
In case you were not aware, inflation is all over the world. Developed countries worse.
My gasoline budget tripled. Food budget - i only eat once. Buying anything is on HOLD till................

How can a govt create a shortage?

[RV Pundit]

Jesus - one would think you studied at least basic of market economy - market inefficiencies like fuel subsibdy where gov owes petrol
companies 30B - and therefore they cannot continue in business.

How comes you call yourself georgesoros? When you dont understand market failures like we've got going on in kenya now - where desperate gov trying to remain popular - has interfered and cannot meet it's end of the bargain.

How can a govt create a shortage?

[RV Pundit]

Nationwide fuel shortage continues. This will shave some points from the economy.

[hk]

Debt is choking the economy, government doesn't have money to maintain fuel subsidy which was a dumb idea. Inflation coupled with failed rains it means the economy is in severe recession. The prudent thing would be to slash the budget, raise the interest rates to choke off inflation, liberalize the economy(especially the energy sector). Budget deficit has to be brought down to 4%. To enact this the consequences would be rough but the economy needs a shock therapy to stabilize and recover.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru and his finance wariah are busy campaigning. Until after august - we are on autopilot. Things will continue to get worse.

Debt is choking the economy, government doesn't have money to maintain fuel subsidy which was a dumb idea. Inflation coupled with failed rains it means the economy is in severe recession. The prudent thing would be to slash the budget, raise the interest rates to choke off inflation, liberalize the economy(especially the energy sector). Budget deficit has to be brought down to 4%. To enact this the consequences would be rough but the economy needs a shock therapy to stabilize and recover.

[gout]

Subsidising the rich as you introduce VAT on food for the poor crying for lower food prices. My car owners and matatu owners are well off. Boda bodas? There is a ceiling where the fares cannot go past given already over 30% walk to work.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-09/kenya-s-fuel-subsidy-regressive-and-inefficient-imf-says

Seems the plan is to illegally make the Finance Bill 2022 effective asap and siphon the taxes for campaigns.
https://kenyanwallstreet.com/government-to-impose-16-vat-on-flour-in-proposed-bill/

https://www.citizen.digital/news/tougher-times-ahead-as-govt-seeks-slap-flour-alcohol-beauty-products-with-more-tax-n296153

No VAT on unga is more equitable. As with other licences hurting micro and small business in favour of giants, the pro rata basis can help. How can we subsidise matatus and boda bodas? Smart cards, maybe- exemption on some licences??

KRA already squeezing millers of double cess.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/news/counties/millers-up-in-arms-over-new-nairobi-cereal-cess-3747924

[Georgesoros]

OMG!!! You mean they can do that?
https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/74759-epra-punishes-oil-marketers-over-fuel-shortage

[gout]

Deportation papers for Rubis MD signed. Must have incited others to play hard ball - let the money hit our accounts.
It is profits stupid. Even if it is ufool's mama, she won't supply cang'aa at a loss.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/fuel-shortage-kenya-deports-rubis-ceo-3781470