A economic avalanche is coming

[RV Pundit]

This is serious...

rumor mills has it that devki and simba cement is among the defaulters. Maybe thats the reason they sold their geothermal company. Inflation is crushing the economy and there's no reprieve in sight.

[gout]

AAR's Peter Nduati hit by the avalanche or bailed out another ponzi scheme.

Peter Nduati's Resolution Health bites the dust. Auctioneers cleaned them well today. pic.twitter.com/nNtdKQx6nQ

— Donald Omoro (@DonaldKOmoro1) March 31, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Not AAR but resolution health

[gout]

It is a depressing job being a prophet of doom in a ship you are in. No matter how hard you shout the drunk sailors just enjoying themselves being urged on by equally drunk or just suicidal crew.

Several scenarios:
At times you are near a lifeboat or have your safe jacket in time. Still, these can take you just a safety distance either to the nearby shore and a rescue ship passing by. More probable is hypothermia, sharks and all vagaries of a turbulent sea. Recovery is dim

Or else the drunk sailor dies naturally or is killed and the ship is steadied. Worse still, it can still be rockier . 

It is comforting to the very least you ain't taken by surprise by any of the doom scenarios. You have played them in your head and developed shock absorbers.

This thread is another prophetic analysis in current economics and drought,its great to see nipate has geniuses,well done Gout, it's spot on years later.

Prophets of doom. 
As Europe and USA readjusts we are soon going to see severe recession. Be ready to buy cheap assets.

[gout]

My bad. It will be interesting to see how medical insurers are faring after they refused to pay for Covid expenses and reported profits in 2021.

Not AAR but resolution health

[Georgesoros]

The big boys are defaulting.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/16-accounts-hit-banks-with-sh40bn-defaults-3766006

rumor mills has it that devki and simba cement is among the defaulters. Maybe thats the reason they sold their geothermal company. Inflation is crushing the economy and there's no reprieve in sight.

The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

[sema]

The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.

[Georgesoros]

The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.

BEST thing going now is industries are sick of China and its policies and they are moving OUT. Right policies will attract these businesses instead of going to India.
1. Kenya has political stability vs India's Hindu nationalism.

[sema]

BEST thing going now is industries are sick of China and its policies and they are moving OUT. Right policies will attract these businesses instead of going to India.
1. Kenya has political stability vs India's Hindu nationalism.

Huh? You don't just de-couple from China (that process will take decades and the biggest beneficiary will be Vietnam) Not some far off African country, but do not assume that companies can just shut down factories and production lines with the snap of their fingers and set up other factories elsewhere again with the snap of their fingers. 

[gout]

The DCI page is proof ufool has killed any hope. The couple killings are everywhere 25-60 men have gone bonkers due to the economic hopelessness.

https://www.facebook.com/UpeleleziKenya/posts/339092204920358

https://www.facebook.com/UpeleleziKenya

[gout]

Bottom up has it easy peasy. Pundit and I have been breaking it down but you people are looking for Chinese big factories, sijui kazi ya ofisi ya serikali nonsense.

Most do not require a shilling - just presidential directives and follow up calls.

First is the decriminalization of hustles/enterprise - matatus, bodas, hawking, micro manufacturing - just a call to IG to stop traffic police; Governor to rein on kanjo and allow vertical model hawking structures structures; KEBS/KRA dogs of war to be reined.

Ufool using KRA has killed businesses all over -big, medium and small; thousands of direct jobs and hundred thousands more lost over unfathomable madness. This is part of breaking dynasty hold on economy/crony capitalism- policy here and there.

Secondly mandatory vocational training - Short courses for out of school young and old on enterprise - KIRDI should be devolved asap/ Polytechnics

Open up local large buyers markets- hospitals, schools - instead of kids scrambling for mandazi we can have milk ATMs in all schools where they buy milk in Kshs. 10, 20,
Others given bodas courier services, incorporate into a revamped postal corporation.

On investments- For now Ndii is talking about 100 billion only for an year. This is what is being sucked into dead KQ year in year out.

Agriculture - merry go round fertilizer using KTDA/coffee societies model; - farmers use paltry 6 billion fertilizer; agro-processing - a litre of yoghurt is currently at Ksh. 200 as milk retails at 30-35 farm gate.

Gazette 50,000 acres of useless Nairobi National Park and even karura for serious affordable housing - a million houses- this gives 2-3 million watu wa mjengo 2-5 years of saving to invest in their hustles.  Same across every count and subcounty headquarters. Let Chinese came in not this expressways. Cheap housing with proper infrastructure solves so many social economic problems. Allows urban poor to save and have dignified living. 

The opportunities are boundless - just name any sector - th
 

The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.

[RV Pundit]

I wish I could frame this - this exactly what is required in kenya - like Ruto said - it's pure common sense - it doesnt require a lot of complex thinking - pure old common sense

Bottom up has it easy peasy. Pundit and I have been breaking it down but you people are looking for Chinese big factories, sijui kazi ya ofisi ya serikali nonsense.

Most do not require a shilling - just presidential directives and follow up calls.

First is the decriminalization of hustles/enterprise - matatus, bodas, hawking, micro manufacturing - just a call to IG to stop traffic police; Governor to rein on kanjo and allow vertical model hawking structures structures; KEBS/KRA dogs of war to be reined.

Ufool using KRA has killed businesses all over -big, medium and small; thousands of direct jobs and hundred thousands more lost over unfathomable madness. This is part of breaking dynasty hold on economy/crony capitalism- policy here and there.

Secondly mandatory vocational training - Short courses for out of school young and old on enterprise - KIRDI should be devolved asap/ Polytechnics

Open up local large buyers markets- hospitals, schools - instead of kids scrambling for mandazi we can have milk ATMs in all schools where they buy milk in Kshs. 10, 20,
Others given bodas courier services, incorporate into a revamped postal corporation.

On investments- For now Ndii is talking about 100 billion only for an year. This is what is being sucked into dead KQ year in year out.

Agriculture - merry go round fertilizer using KTDA/coffee societies model; - farmers use paltry 6 billion fertilizer; agro-processing - a litre of yoghurt is currently at Ksh. 200 as milk retails at 30-35 farm gate.

Gazette 50,000 acres of useless Nairobi National Park and even karura for serious affordable housing - a million houses- this gives 2-3 million watu wa mjengo 2-5 years of saving to invest in their hustles.  Same across every count and subcounty headquarters. Let Chinese came in not this expressways. Cheap housing with proper infrastructure solves so many social economic problems. Allows urban poor to save and have dignified living. 

The opportunities are boundless - just name any sector - th
 

The biggest problem coming is UNEMPLOYMENT.
Uhuru needed to address this yesterday, not tomorrow.

How will anyone address this issue? People think jobs are dropped down from heaven or that the government can just snap it's fingers and create jobs.  Jobs come from production.  You have to produce things that people want or need and you have to export them (this is what gives countries their competitive advantage) -- What is Kenya's competitive advantage right now? or any African country for that matter? They are importing cars, heavy machinery, tools, everything and in exchange for this they can coffee beans and flowers are going to pay for all these imports?

They're going to have to figure out what their competitive advantage is otherwise, who will they ever compete globally?

Wasn't Nduati fired from his old job for corruption? looks like he just run this to the ground and took people's money with it.

[RV Pundit]

Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.

[KenyanPlato]

BEST thing going now is industries are sick of China and its policies and they are moving OUT. Right policies will attract these businesses instead of going to India.
1. Kenya has political stability vs India's Hindu nationalism.

Huh? You don't just de-couple from China (that process will take decades and the biggest beneficiary will be Vietnam) Not some far off African country, but do not assume that companies can just shut down factories and production lines with the snap of their fingers and set up other factories elsewhere again with the snap of their fingers. 

Man you got your geopolitics right. Vietnam is taking Chinese jobs and India will eventually get some. African  needs to find a way to increase intraafrica trading. Lay the network now for future. Otherwise we will continue being the bottom of the barrel

[gout]

The easiest markets to capture are DRC, Burundi and South Sudan. We can to lock these markets for 10 -15 years with milk, meat, leather and garments. Industrial Area is also doing well with plastics. This makes Naivasha most ideal. I don't know about availability of land in Lake Victoria Basin. If available, this would solve the exclusion issue among the Luos. 

Turkana can also act as our entry into Sudan and the now fragile Ethiopia.

Logistic wise, Lamu makes no sense- except make it serious meat auction sort of for the Gulf. Lamu security concerns means a serious investment makes so many people sitting ducks as long as Somali/Indian Ocean is lawless. 
 

Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.

[RV Pundit]

I think the problem here is about 10-15 million jobless youths. That is immediate problem. What we need is think global. We need to create a "country" in Lamu - that can compete with China or Veitnam or Dubai - for export oriented manufacturing - we have huge opportunity in AGOA - that allows duty free access to American Market - for almost 1,000 types of good. No africa country has taken advantage of it with any seriousness.

For me I see LAMU as ideal because it's remote - it low population - it has huge land - it has deep sea port - it can easily get power generate through solar - river tana is not far off - it's near the coast (you cannot do serious manufacturing inland - impossible) - and with AGOA - we can pull Chinese manufacturers - who will supply US market.

Kenya benefit will be forex+jobs - we can have at least 2-3 million of people flocking LAMU. The terror can be stopped easily once we put in serious investment - we can flood the police and army in Boni forest.

If we concentrated on Lamu and Dongo Kundu free port - we can easily create mega cities in our coastal region - that will employ millions of jobless youths.

The easiest markets to capture are DRC, Burundi and South Sudan. We can to lock these markets for 10 -15 years with milk, meat, leather and garments. Industrial Area is also doing well with plastics. This makes Naivasha most ideal. I don't know about availability of land in Lake Victoria Basin. If available, this would solve the exclusion issue among the Luos. 

Turkana can also act as our entry into Sudan and the now fragile Ethiopia.

Logistic wise, Lamu makes no sense- except make it serious meat auction sort of for the Gulf. Lamu security concerns means a serious investment makes so many people sitting ducks as long as Somali/Indian Ocean is lawless. 
 

Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.

[KenyanPlato]

I think the problem here is about 10-15 million jobless youths. That is immediate problem. What we need is think global. We need to create a "country" in Lamu - that can compete with China or Veitnam or Dubai - for export oriented manufacturing - we have huge opportunity in AGOA - that allows duty free access to American Market - for almost 1,000 types of good. No africa country has taken advantage of it with any seriousness.

For me I see LAMU as ideal because it's remote - it low population - it has huge land - it has deep sea port - it can easily get power generate through solar - river tana is not far off - it's near the coast (you cannot do serious manufacturing inland - impossible) - and with AGOA - we can pull Chinese manufacturers - who will supply US market.

Kenya benefit will be forex+jobs - we can have at least 2-3 million of people flocking LAMU. The terror can be stopped easily once we put in serious investment - we can flood the police and army in Boni forest.

If we concentrated on Lamu and Dongo Kundu free port - we can easily create mega cities in our coastal region - that will employ millions of jobless youths.

The easiest markets to capture are DRC, Burundi and South Sudan. We can to lock these markets for 10 -15 years with milk, meat, leather and garments. Industrial Area is also doing well with plastics. This makes Naivasha most ideal. I don't know about availability of land in Lake Victoria Basin. If available, this would solve the exclusion issue among the Luos. 

Turkana can also act as our entry into Sudan and the now fragile Ethiopia.

Logistic wise, Lamu makes no sense- except make it serious meat auction sort of for the Gulf. Lamu security concerns means a serious investment makes so many people sitting ducks as long as Somali/Indian Ocean is lawless. 
 

Gout - what do you think about serious EPZ type manufacturing in Lamu (Now we have idle free port) - and Mombasa Dongo Kundu.

The way I see - real export oriented manufacturing to provide jobs and forex can only happen near large port.

If I was PORK -
1) I would hive off say 50,000 acres of LAMU - create special economic zone - which is outside the realm of KRA/Union/Kenya police - this will be almost diplomatic blue zones - duty free - zero rate - same thing China did with Shenzen - Dubai did. Fence it off - divide it into 5-10 acres plot - build roads & sewage & water - and give the land for free to certified manufactures.
2) I would make Lamu port - free port - and privatize it.
3) Allow solar companies to go to Lamu and set up power plants - the coal plant is dead.

Once you give big manufacturers - free land, cheap solar power, free port, special economic zones with almost diplmatic status, plus you throw in our world class beaches and resorts for a weekend on fun - they will come rushing.

All we would require is for them to employ millions of kenyans...zero taxes - just employ millions of jobless youths - and also do not allow them to sell their cheap goods to kenya - let it be EPZ connected to LAMU free port - exclusive zone just to generate jobs and forex.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work

[RV Pundit]

My friend people employ house girls for 3,000-5000kshs. They are million of desperate jobless youths who will take sweat jobs that pays 100usd per month.

I think the estimate is 15 million jobless folks in Juakali sector. We need to get at least half of them moving from agri to manufacturing. there is no other way. Agri should remain for old and uneducated.

Organic manufacturing is great....but we have huge problem that require a huge solution - quickly. So of 15 million - get 2-4 million into housing and infrastructure (construction), get 2-4 million into export oriented manufacturing, then get rest into SME sector (agri, manufacturing, transport (boda boda), financial, hotels).

We already have foothold in US apparel sector - we just need to grab more piece of the piece -  get chinese manufacturers moving to vietnam - consider moving to Lamu and Mombasa. This trick that has seen Veitnam export rise from nothing to more than it's GDP - bicyles alone bring in 12 billion dollars. Kenyans can surely assemble bicyles.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work

[gout]

Yeah, Kenyans are a hard lot to understand through most of the economic models.
It is said that Kenyans are choosy even when unemployed. Many will reject a job and leave you bewildered, then you find them after an year and they are just doing somewhat 'fine'.

The issue is having a fall back position in land and shags home where you won't lack a house and food. Our peasantry land ownership makes nonsense of the grand scale wage based economic disruption. The hustle culture has also made Kenyan youths cocky sure that siwezi kosa kitu ya kufanya.


You cannot uproot the Kalenjin youths to Lamu even for jobs. They only want to join jeshi, police or funny NYS to march with spades 

The lot am finding ambitious is the single mothers and young women going to the gulf for house jobs.

Once we sort productivity bottlenecks in the hustles, incomes will rise. More investment into innovations, scaling up/expansion, more stock, improvements.

A hawker uses half day running from kanjo; only sells for an hour or two; 2-5 days earnings to bribe kanjo.  There was a story of a woman forced to close a pub in Kitengela. A simple pub employs 2-3 permanent wait; 2 more temps; a mutura/soup guy outside and still gives good money to the owner. One OCS and fellow buggers takes all the margins to go splash on malaya or build desolate house at home to be occupied once an year.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work

[RV Pundit]

The land trust me is gone. Even amongst Kalenjin. The land price in my shags are now as competitive as 40kms from Nairobi - land now sold in points - now 200K per point or plot - 30kms from Kericho town. My wife recently bought at 280K - in Malaa kamulu - that is 40kms from Nairobi...nearly same prize with my shags.

Most people in my place now own 1/4 or less than acre of land. Those luckly actually inherit 2-3 acres of land. Majority now inherit an acre or less of land. Their parents on average owned 10-20 acres - but gave birth to 10 kids.

Remember the arable land in kenya is just 11 percent - and most of it has been subdivided into tiny unproductive portions. Therefore you have kalenjin men flocking to be watchmen in Nairobi and many women now flocking into house girls.

Flower farms, sweat jobs and mass employers is only hope.

Yeah, Kenyans are a hard lot to understand through most of the economic models.
It is said that Kenyans are choosy even when unemployed. Many will reject a job and leave you bewildered, then you find them after an year and they are just doing somewhat 'fine'.

The issue is having a fall back position in land and shags home where you won't lack a house and food. Our peasantry land ownership makes nonsense of the grand scale wage based economic disruption. The hustle culture has also made Kenyan youths cocky sure that siwezi kosa kitu ya kufanya.


You cannot uproot the Kalenjin youths to Lamu even for jobs. They only want to join jeshi, police or funny NYS to march with spades 

The lot am finding ambitious is the single mothers and young women going to the gulf for house jobs.

Once we sort productivity bottlenecks in the hustles, incomes will rise. More investment into innovations, scaling up/expansion, more stock, improvements.

A hawker uses half day running from kanjo; only sells for an hour or two; 2-5 days earnings to bribe kanjo.  There was a story of a woman forced to close a pub in Kitengela. A simple pub employs 2-3 permanent wait; 2 more temps; a mutura/soup guy outside and still gives good money to the owner. One OCS and fellow buggers takes all the margins to go splash on malaya or build desolate house at home to be occupied once an year.

Kenyans are not unemployed. They have an income problem. You can't solve income problem with sweat shops. Due to land rights and literary levels kenyans won't take sweat shop jobs. So gout model is the only one that can work