What Will Happen if Raila Does NOT Run

[vooke]

It would depend on how "Raila does NOT run"

1) He writes to IEBC to withdraw his candidature - Uhuru is declared automatic winner like Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung'wa
2) He asks his supporters to boycot the elections - Uhuru wins by a very big margin

Either scenario could be peaceful or violent. Kibe's take - that the 2013 decision on re-run candidates was non-binding - can only be sanctioned by the same SCOK. What became of Ekuru's case - will it be decided tomorrow as well?

What would be Raila's motivation here? The IEBC would conduct the elections regardless of who the candidates are. More reforms? Or NASA can front Madvd-Kalonzo - in fresh nominations - this I would like to see

There's a pet theory being peddled that any candidate pulling out of the race means no elections and no elections means constitutional crisis and constitutional crisis means 'caretaker government'.

It follows that Jubilee must prostrate itself before Babu and lick his rear lest he is tempted to reduce Uhunye from a temporary incumbent to a raia by just pulling out.

[Omollo]

Let me help Pundit and his Mistress:

[Omollo]

Read my last post for answers or find PETITION NO. 5 OF 2013, RAILA ODINGA vs THE INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL AND BOUNDARIES COMMISSION and others. Scroll to 285 -294 and when you are done you will know why I call Githu Muigai Consigliere!

It would depend on how "Raila does NOT run"

1) He writes to IEBC to withdraw his candidature - Uhuru is declared automatic winner like Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung'wa
2) He asks his supporters to boycot the elections - Uhuru wins by a very big margin

Either scenario could be peaceful or violent. Kibe's take - that the 2013 decision on re-run candidates was non-binding - can only be sanctioned by the same SCOK. What became of Ekuru's case - will it be decided tomorrow as well?

What would be Raila's motivation here? The IEBC would conduct the elections regardless of who the candidates are. More reforms? Or NASA can front Madvd-Kalonzo - in fresh nominations - this I would like to see

There's a pet theory being peddled that any candidate pulling out of the race means no elections and no elections means constitutional crisis and constitutional crisis means 'caretaker government'.

It follows that Jubilee must prostrate itself before Babu and lick his rear lest he is tempted to reduce Uhunye from a temporary incumbent to a raia by just pulling out.

[vooke]

Read my last post for answers or find PETITION NO. 5 OF 2013, RAILA ODINGA vs THE INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL AND BOUNDARIES COMMISSION and others. Scroll to 285 -294 and when you are done you will know why I call Githu Muigai Consigliere!

[Nefertiti]

290 is why I questioned Raila's motivation in abandoning the re-run. The effect of that is exactly what he would be abandoning - another election - with IEBC - the only difference is fresh nominations. And the incumbent would remain in office until then.

Read my last post for answers or find PETITION NO. 5 OF 2013, RAILA ODINGA vs THE INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL AND BOUNDARIES COMMISSION and others. Scroll to 285 -294 and when you are done you will know why I call Githu Muigai Consigliere!

[Omollo]

Would you care to explain what that "only" difference is ... time lines and all?

290 is why I questioned Raila's motivation in abandoning the re-run. The effect of that is exactly what he would be abandoning - another election - with IEBC - the only difference is fresh nominations. And the incumbent would remain in office until then.

[RV Pundit]

Keep dreaming on.Let Raila officially withdraw and saves us the rerun

[Omollo]

I respectfully submit that you are the one snoring in the midst of a busy highway at high noon!

Keep dreaming on.Let Raila officially withdraw and saves us the rerun

[Kadame7]

I respectfully submit that you are the one snoring in the midst of a busy highway at high noon!

Keep dreaming on.Let Raila officially withdraw and saves us the rerun

The idea that if Raila withdraws, Uhuru becomes president automatically....where does it come from? Do you know? I've seen it here a few times.

[RV Pundit]

The constitution. Uhuru would be unopposed in the re-run and IEBC would declared him PORK. Uhuru has was already nominated - so this tortured arguments about nomination was already one.

The idea that if Raila withdraws, Uhuru becomes president automatically....where does it come from? Do you know? I've seen it here a few times.

[Omollo]

Do you now say the Supreme Court has no powers to interpret the constitution?

Pole bro! I feel your pain-

The constitution. Uhuru would be unopposed in the re-run and IEBC would declared him PORK. Uhuru has was already nominated - so this tortured arguments about nomination was already one.

The idea that if Raila withdraws, Uhuru becomes president automatically....where does it come from? Do you know? I've seen it here a few times.

[RV Pundit]

I have bad tooth ache so thanks for your symapthizes. Otherwise Uhuru last I checked is PORK and will remain PORK until he is re-elected again.

Do you now say the Supreme Court has no powers to interpret the constitution?
Pole bro! I feel your pain-

[Kadame7]

The constitution. Uhuru would be unopposed in the re-run and IEBC would declared him PORK. Uhuru has was already nominated - so this tortured arguments about nomination was already one.

The idea that if Raila withdraws, Uhuru becomes president automatically....where does it come from? Do you know? I've seen it here a few times.

Please tell me what part of the constitution says if candidates withdraw, whoever is left becomes president automatically and the citizenry don't get to elect their own president?

[RV Pundit]

The constitution. Don't be lazy. Google it.

Please tell me what part of the constitution says if candidates withdraw, whoever is left becomes president automatically and the citizenry don't get to elect their own president?

[RV Pundit]

If raila withdraw his candidature;there are two things - IEBC can conduct an election anyway - and waste time - or interpret his move as withdrawal of his nomination.

(1) If only one candidate for President is nominated, that candidate shall be declared elected. (2) If two or more candidates for President are nominated, an election shall be held in each constituency. (3) In a presidential election-- (a) all persons registered as voters for the purposes of parliamentary elections are entitled to vote; (b) the poll shall be taken by secret ballot on the day specified in Article 101 (1) at the time, in the places and in the manner prescribed under an Act of Parliament; and (c) after counting the votes in the polling stations, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall tally and verify the count and declare the result. (4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives-- (a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties. (5) If no candidate is elected, a fresh election shall be held within thirty days after the previous election and in that fresh election the only candidates shall be-- (a) the candidate, or the candidates, who received the greatest number of votes; and (b) the candidate, or the candidates, who received the second greatest number of votes. (6) If more than one candidate receives the greatest number of votes, clause (5) (b) shall not apply and the only candidates in the fresh election shall be those contemplated in clause (5) (a). (7) The candidate who receives the most votes in the fresh election shall be declared elected as President. ( A presidential election shall be cancelled and a new election held if-- (a) no person has been nominated as a candidate before the expiry of the period set for the delivery of nominations; (b) a candidate for election as President or Deputy President dies on or before the scheduled election date; or (c) a candidate who would have been entitled to be declared elected as President, dies before being declared elected as President. (9) A new presidential election under clause ( shall be held within sixty days after the date set for the previous presidential election. (10) Within seven days after the presidential election, the chairperson of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall-- (a) declare the result of the election; and (b) deliver a written notification of the result to the Chief Justice and the incumbent Preside

[Kadame7]

Pundit, methinks the situation where there are no available/willing candidates to be president except one is not the same as where someone(s) withdraws just before the election at the tail end of a very long process. Methinks the first envisages a situation where no one wants/is qualified to be president except one and that this situation is all very clear to the electorate as/before it happens.

If raila withdraw his candidature;there are two things - IEBC can conduct an election anyway - and waste time - or interpret his move as withdrawal of his nomination.

(1) If only one candidate for President is nominated, that candidate shall be declared elected. (2) If two or more candidates for President are nominated, an election shall be held in each constituency. (3) In a presidential election-- (a) all persons registered as voters for the purposes of parliamentary elections are entitled to vote; (b) the poll shall be taken by secret ballot on the day specified in Article 101 (1) at the time, in the places and in the manner prescribed under an Act of Parliament; and (c) after counting the votes in the polling stations, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall tally and verify the count and declare the result. (4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives-- (a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties. (5) If no candidate is elected, a fresh election shall be held within thirty days after the previous election and in that fresh election the only candidates shall be-- (a) the candidate, or the candidates, who received the greatest number of votes; and (b) the candidate, or the candidates, who received the second greatest number of votes. (6) If more than one candidate receives the greatest number of votes, clause (5) (b) shall not apply and the only candidates in the fresh election shall be those contemplated in clause (5) (a). (7) The candidate who receives the most votes in the fresh election shall be declared elected as President. ( A presidential election shall be cancelled and a new election held if-- (a) no person has been nominated as a candidate before the expiry of the period set for the delivery of nominations; (b) a candidate for election as President or Deputy President dies on or before the scheduled election date; or (c) a candidate who would have been entitled to be declared elected as President, dies before being declared elected as President. (9) A new presidential election under clause ( shall be held within sixty days after the date set for the previous presidential election. (10) Within seven days after the presidential election, the chairperson of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall-- (a) declare the result of the election; and (b) deliver a written notification of the result to the Chief Justice and the incumbent Preside

[Omollo]

You can take an old cow to the river but cannot force it to drink water!

How can I tell Pundit to read what I am posting!

Pundit,

Good luck. Come back and read this when it does not work the way you say. Its just a few weeks away. I give up

[Omollo]

Kadame

Do not labor. The AG invited the SCOK to rule on the matter. The interpretation is contained in the Raila vs IEBC. There is no nomination. The SCOK went further to state what would happen in event one of the two dies or withdraws.

Pundit, methinks the situation where there are no available/willing candidates to be president except one is not the same as where someone(s) withdraws just before the election at the tail end of a very long process. Methinks the first envisages a situation where no one wants/is qualified to be president except one and that this situation is all very clear to the electorate as/before it happens.

[Kadame7]

Kadame

Do not labor. The AG invited the SCOK to rule on the matter. The interpretation is contained in the Raila vs IEBC. There is no nomination. The SCOK went further to state what would happen in event one of the two dies or withdraws.

Pundit, methinks the situation where there are no available/willing candidates to be president except one is not the same as where someone(s) withdraws just before the election at the tail end of a very long process. Methinks the first envisages a situation where no one wants/is qualified to be president except one and that this situation is all very clear to the electorate as/before it happens.

Kibe was giving them a way to pretend to ignore that interpretation by pretending it was non-binding,  Maybe that's where the hope comes from.

[RV Pundit]

That is tortured argument. There is no long process. There is nomination and election. If you withdraw from election - then candidate become un-opposed. If you die - before it - then we have new nomination. In any case why are we even worried about this - Let NASA do their thing - and we shall see. Just refuse to participate.

Pundit, methinks the situation where there are no available/willing candidates to be president except one is not the same as where someone(s) withdraws just before the election at the tail end of a very long process. Methinks the first envisages a situation where no one wants/is qualified to be president except one and that this situation is all very clear to the electorate as/before it happens.