Very low. The interest was mainly local elections - governor or mp or mca - now hii ya PORK is for big tribes. For once despite giving huge turn out boost to Coast in MOAS - thinking MRC had suppressed turn out - they were even lower than 2013!
I am thinking of using historical turn out pre-2010 - I think high turn out (compared to historical average) in western, coast,gusii, northern kenya and such places that we saw in 2013 & 2017 (where it matches national average save for coast) will not be replicated - again they have no horses, no stake, it's no biggie for them.
We could go back to usual 40-60% in all those places - and high turn out in Luo, GEMA & Kalenjin land. Kambas I doubt have so much to play for here.
And this basically spell doom for NASA - whose base support is wide.
Pundit - what do you expect of turnout outside the strongholds of RV, Kikuyu, Luo, Kamba?