Political realignment thread.

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo on the ropes - after this - if Raila doesn't hand over the mantle to Kalonzo - but as expected to Orengo-Joho then Kalonzo end is nigh
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Kalonzo-Musyoka-is-a-burden-to-Kambas-David-Musila/1056-4090852-bg4etz/index.html

[Kichwa]

RV-Pundit-Actually Kalonzo and Ruto are in similar situations only that Ruto's is not apparent to you.  If Ouru wins then he can hand-over the mantle to Ruto and so Raila to Kalonzo if Raila wins.  However, the handing-over does not assure them that nobody in the party will challenge them.  One thing a lot of people do not appreciate is that politics in Kenya is very fast moving and five years will make a lot of difference. Five years from now the country may not be in the mood for either Kalonzo or Ruto.  Let us begin with Kalonzo, if Raila does not get the presidency, NASA will be led by very politically radical group and Kalonzo may not fit in unless he re-invents himself.  Ruto will also be surprised that the country will not be in the mood for this two tribe arrangement five years down the line.  It is a very primitive concept of governance and I can already see Kenyans getting tired of it.

Just to illustrate my point,  five years ago, a supreme court made up of activists and very liberally leaning intellectuals  could not overturn an election where the president purportedly won by 50 plus one but five years later the same court with more conservative-Moderate judges found it very easy to overturn an election where the winner purportedly won by 54%. They were able to see through that 54% was a gimmick to intimidate them into ignoring the seriously flawed process.  "Vindu vi chenjanga"

Kalonzo on the ropes - after this - if Raila doesn't hand over the mantle to Kalonzo - but as expected to Orengo-Joho then Kalonzo end is nigh
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Kalonzo-Musyoka-is-a-burden-to-Kambas-David-Musila/1056-4090852-bg4etz/index.html

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo is cooked. His Ukambani base has two rising leaders Sonko & Mutua - while his backyard is ran by Ngilu & Kivutha who don't have time for Kalonzo - he has less than 20 mps - 2 or 3 senators - the man is as Kaput as MaDVD or Wetangula. He is now at same level with Gideon Moi. Ruto is at same level with Raila and Uhuru. You cannot compare Kalonzo with Ruto.

RV-Pundit-Actually Kalonzo and Ruto are in similar situations only that Ruto's is not apparent to you.  If Ouru wins then he can hand-over the mantle to Ruto and so Raila to Kalonzo if Raila wins.  However, the handing-over does not assure them that nobody in the party will challenge them.  One thing a lot of people do not appreciate is that politics in Kenya is very fast moving and five years will make a lot of difference. Five years from now the country may not be in the mood for either Kalonzo or Ruto.  Let us begin with Kalonzo, if Raila does not get the presidency, NASA will be led by very politically radical group and Kalonzo may not fit in unless he re-invents himself.  Ruto will also be surprised that the country will not be in the mood for this two tribe arrangement five years down the line.  It is a very primitive concept of governance and I can already see Kenyans getting tired of it.

Just to illustrate my point,  five years ago, a supreme court made up of activists and very liberally leaning intellectuals  could not overturn an election where the president purportedly won by 50 plus one but five years later the same court with more conservative-Moderate judges found it very easy to overturn an election where the winner purportedly won by 54%. They were able to see through that 54% was a gimmick to intimidate them into ignoring the seriously flawed process.  "Vindu vi chenjanga"

[Kichwa]

It is true that Ruto looks better than Kalonzo right now but things can flip on Ruto too very quickly.  There are a lot of land mines in Kenyan politics.  The so called super majority can also be a double edged sword.

Kalonzo is cooked. His Ukambani base has two rising leaders Sonko & Mutua - while his backyard is ran by Ngilu & Kivutha who don't have time for Kalonzo - he has less than 20 mps - 2 or 3 senators - the man is as Kaput as MaDVD or Wetangula. He is now at same level with Gideon Moi. Ruto is at same level with Raila and Uhuru. You cannot compare Kalonzo with Ruto.

RV-Pundit-Actually Kalonzo and Ruto are in similar situations only that Ruto's is not apparent to you.  If Ouru wins then he can hand-over the mantle to Ruto and so Raila to Kalonzo if Raila wins.  However, the handing-over does not assure them that nobody in the party will challenge them.  One thing a lot of people do not appreciate is that politics in Kenya is very fast moving and five years will make a lot of difference. Five years from now the country may not be in the mood for either Kalonzo or Ruto.  Let us begin with Kalonzo, if Raila does not get the presidency, NASA will be led by very politically radical group and Kalonzo may not fit in unless he re-invents himself.  Ruto will also be surprised that the country will not be in the mood for this two tribe arrangement five years down the line.  It is a very primitive concept of governance and I can already see Kenyans getting tired of it.

Just to illustrate my point,  five years ago, a supreme court made up of activists and very liberally leaning intellectuals  could not overturn an election where the president purportedly won by 50 plus one but five years later the same court with more conservative-Moderate judges found it very easy to overturn an election where the winner purportedly won by 54%. They were able to see through that 54% was a gimmick to intimidate them into ignoring the seriously flawed process.  "Vindu vi chenjanga"

[RV Pundit]

Munya - not sure if it's legit

[Kichwa]

I wouldn't be surprised, folks are being sawn videos of people being tortured and others are being threatened with audit or both.  What US ambassador Hempton (sp) observed in the 80's is even more true today.  He said "Kenya is like Chicago in the 40"s except here Al Capone is the mayor".  Ruto and Ouru are a bunch of thugs running a criminal syndicate. Kivuitu said that the people who picked him up and forced him to announce the 2007 election results should never have been born.  No, I am not surprised if Munya capitulates.  This is not political realignment, this is Mafia at work. 

Munya - not sure if it's legit

[vooke]

Smart negro, he hasn't a better chance in 2022 with Jubilee than NASWA

EX-MERU Governor Munya ends short-lived dalliance with NASA; vows to support President Kenyatta in Oct 17 repeat poll. #ElectionsKE pic.twitter.com/zJYO5aEaB4

— CapitalFM Breaking News (@BreakingNewsKE) September 12, 2017

[RV Pundit]

One of the most short-lived defection - Why did NASA make him a principal

[vooke]

Sielewi

This
PRESS RELEASE: I AM IN NASA TO STAY
HON. PETER MUNYA
It has come to my attention of a fake letter doing rounds on social media,purporting to have my name.
I wish to inform the people of Meru and Kenyans at large that Iam firmly in NASA.The merchants of impunity are already running amok on our resolve,as the Party of National Unity (PNU) to join hands in the liberation of our country.
I wish to affirm here that no amount of fake news or propaganda will stop our agenda.
Peter Munya.
Party Leader,PNU.

Then this

[RV Pundit]

Alfred sambu -Webuye Mp-from opposition attended the 12th parliament session.

[vooke]

Babu claims Munya and Rutto was blackmailed/intimidated into joining Jubilee

[Kichwa]

they are making a mockery of democracy.  Trust Africans to mess up anything good, whether it is democracy or capitalism.  Those who came up with the concept of democracy never envisioned the idea of people being intimidated, threatened and bought with a lot of money to form  a majority. The concept of democracy is predicated upon the assumption of freedom of thought, expression and association. Democracy never saw primitive, corrupt and power hungry leaders like Ruto who have stolen enough money to literally buy every politician in Kenya to form a super majority of tyranny and looting.  Nothing good will ever come out of it.  Ruto and Ouru are the enemies of democracy and Kenya will never be truly democratic with these two thugs in politics.

Babu claims Munya and Rutto was blackmailed/intimidated into joining Jubilee

[vooke]

they are making a mockery of democracy.  Trust Africans to mess up anything good, whether it is democracy or capitalism.  Those who came up with the concept of democracy never envisioned the idea of people being intimidated, threatened and bought with a lot of money to form  a majority. The concept of democracy is predicated upon the assumption of freedom of thought, expression and association. Democracy never saw primitive, corrupt and power hungry leaders like Ruto who have stolen enough money to literally buy every politician in Kenya to form a super majority of tyranny and looting.  Nothing good will ever come out of it.  Ruto and Ouru are the enemies of democracy and Kenya will never be truly democratic with these two thugs in politics.

Babu claims Munya and Rutto was blackmailed/intimidated into joining Jubilee

Damn right.
Throw in bungled primaries.
And pray if I may aks, is dangling positions any different from bribery?

[Nefertiti]

We said this already Kichwa - why are you surprised?  Huge chunks of cash are changing hands right now - NASA will be deserted by 17th - with the few big defections being spared for the final stretch. For kina Hassan Omar, Mwakwere and Mruttu. You have a right to be disgusted but not to be surprised. Welcome to tumbocracy.

[RV Pundit]

I am watching Nanok - the only governor with khaemba in former RV who is not in Jubilee. Taita Taveta - Jubilee can pick lot more there.Tana River governor could defect. There is little movement in Gusii - but Kuria is solidly Jubilee. It going to be rout against NASA. Raila definitely is going out with BANG - 40%-60%.

We said this already Kichwa - why are you surprised?  Huge chunks of cash are changing hands right now - NASA will be deserted by 17th - with the few big defections being spared for the final stretch. For kina Hassan Omar, Mwakwere and Mruttu. You have a right to be disgusted but not to be surprised. Welcome to tumbocracy.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

We said this already Kichwa - why are you surprised?  Huge chunks of cash are changing hands right now - NASA will be deserted by 17th - with the few big defections being spared for the final stretch. For kina Hassan Omar, Mwakwere and Mruttu. You have a right to be disgusted but not to be surprised. Welcome to tumbocracy.

That.  And more likely blackmail as Baba said in the interview.  If you are not squeaky clean, the jubilant has leverage over you.

[vooke]

We said this already Kichwa - why are you surprised?  Huge chunks of cash are changing hands right now - NASA will be deserted by 17th - with the few big defections being spared for the final stretch. For kina Hassan Omar, Mwakwere and Mruttu. You have a right to be disgusted but not to be surprised. Welcome to tumbocracy.

That.  And more likely blackmail as Baba said in the interview.  If you are not squeaky clean, the jubilant has leverage over you.

Or they saw the sense in Uhuru's point that Babu can't govern. This is the case. But feel free to invent all other NAZI permutations

[bryan275]

We said this already Kichwa - why are you surprised?  Huge chunks of cash are changing hands right now - NASA will be deserted by 17th - with the few big defections being spared for the final stretch. For kina Hassan Omar, Mwakwere and Mruttu. You have a right to be disgusted but not to be surprised. Welcome to tumbocracy.

That.  And more likely blackmail as Baba said in the interview.  If you are not squeaky clean, the jubilant has leverage over you.

In this post Msando world, mambo ni self preservation.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

We said this already Kichwa - why are you surprised?  Huge chunks of cash are changing hands right now - NASA will be deserted by 17th - with the few big defections being spared for the final stretch. For kina Hassan Omar, Mwakwere and Mruttu. You have a right to be disgusted but not to be surprised. Welcome to tumbocracy.

That.  And more likely blackmail as Baba said in the interview.  If you are not squeaky clean, the jubilant has leverage over you.

Or they saw the sense in Uhuru's point that Babu can't govern. This is the case. But feel free to invent all other NAZI permutations

Of course the drunkard and the thief is a better governor is the more convincing argument for vooke.

[Kichwa]

My point is that democracy is about winning minds with ideas and not through intimidation, tribalism, buying people and forcing them to join you.  Its majority  rule but not by all means.  Democracy is like any competitive sport, it has to have rules and neutral referees and not just about whomever gets the most goals regardless of how the goals are scored. That is what the supreme court case was all about. 

You and Pundit seem to think that what matters is how many goals are scored regardless of whether the winning team followed the rules of the game or NOT. 

Bottom line is this, Ouru and Ruto can buy, intimidate and force many politicians to join them but they will not buy everybody. 

This is the same thing Jomo did. When he saw Jaramogi winning the ideological argument, he started playing rough,  making rules that favored him, introduced tribalism a intimidation, force, detention without trial and murder. He was able to consolidate power but he never managed to subdue everyone into submission.  The same will happen to Ruto and Ouru. They will try to use money, intimidation, murder, threats, tribalism, force and they will get a lot of people because most people are weak, however, there will be enough people left to give them hell all the way. They cannot buy or kill everyone in Kenya plus they are human beings and will die and make mistakes which others will capitalize on.

 I am just surprised at the primitivity of folks like you who think they will succeed.

We said this already Kichwa - why are you surprised?  Huge chunks of cash are changing hands right now - NASA will be deserted by 17th - with the few big defections being spared for the final stretch. For kina Hassan Omar, Mwakwere and Mruttu. You have a right to be disgusted but not to be surprised. Welcome to tumbocracy.

That.  And more likely blackmail as Baba said in the interview.  If you are not squeaky clean, the jubilant has leverage over you.

Or they saw the sense in Uhuru's point that Babu can't govern. This is the case. But feel free to invent all other NAZI permutations