Dissenting Opinions of Njoki and Ojwang

[bryan275]

Turnout in central was the highest, generally toying with the limits of possibility.  Numbers you only see in countries with mandatory voting.  I am on a phone so I can't share the spreadsheet.

The results in PDF
https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/m3f8arLNjp.pdf

And in Excel
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2rMMQJiqMB8ZUlyd05MbmIwOGM/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msexcel

Of course it was not low,but not substantially higher than national average

Wait, on second thought it was very high. Approaching 90%

Thanks, that spreadhseet has apostrophes and needs cleansing before delving in.  I'll do it later when I get to a bigger screen.  Assuming that turnout was as you say 90%, and Uhuru and co still needed to stuff the ballots, then his 70%+1 is just load of bull. 

Next time rigging will be very tricky.

This is why he's driving around hurling abuse.  Chap knows his goose is cooked.  Worse so now that he's been caught stealing.

[bryan275]

I guess in Robina's eyes Chiloba is in the habit of committing illegalities just for the fun of it.  Nothing to see here.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Turnout in central was the highest, generally toying with the limits of possibility.  Numbers you only see in countries with mandatory voting.  I am on a phone so I can't share the spreadsheet.

The results in PDF
https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/m3f8arLNjp.pdf

And in Excel
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2rMMQJiqMB8ZUlyd05MbmIwOGM/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msexcel

Of course it was not low,but not substantially higher than national average

Wait, on second thought it was very high. Approaching 90%

Here is the link I have Chebukati Results ordered by turnout.  Red is jubilant, blue is NASA.

[vooke]

Turnout in central was the highest, generally toying with the limits of possibility.  Numbers you only see in countries with mandatory voting.  I am on a phone so I can't share the spreadsheet.

The results in PDF
https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/m3f8arLNjp.pdf

And in Excel
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2rMMQJiqMB8ZUlyd05MbmIwOGM/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msexcel

Of course it was not low,but not substantially higher than national average

Wait, on second thought it was very high. Approaching 90%

Thanks, that spreadhseet has apostrophes and needs cleansing before delving in.  I'll do it later when I get to a bigger screen.  Assuming that turnout was as you say 90%, and Uhuru and co still needed to stuff the ballots, then his 70%+1 is just load of bull. 

Next time rigging will be very tricky.

This is why he's driving around hurling abuse.  Chap knows his goose is cooked.  Worse so now that he's been caught stealing.

Karibu. I converted the document online so they may explain it.

Uhunye's days may be numbered if he stole to get 54%. I'm yet to see anything convincing on this end,and I felt his results were hard fought, we'll find out soon

[Kadame7]

The judgement touches on the issues of law as well as the integrity of the process. Once the ruling is out, I'm certain it will be vigorously debated whether the elections were really held contrary to the constitution. That bit doesn't concern me at all, I'll leave that to legal minds, and I can assure you that even there,there will never be any consensus.

What concerns me is the integrity bit. In short,the results were hopelessly unreliable. Babu did not go to court because of a principle called integrity; he went there because he felt whatever lacked in the election disadvantaged him. The court just aksin IEBC to remedy that and repeat. So if they did and he still lost,the remedy never disadvantaged Babu in the first place. It's only the Court imagined they did.

I see. But if Baba went to court to complain of problems that he felt disadvantaged him and the court asked IEBC to fix them and they did and he still lost, the conclusion is Raila imagined it, not the court. Its like if you complain to a referee that a goal is wrongly scored and he sees yes, the scorer was ahead of the ball on the other side and cancels it. If you score again the next minute without flouting the rules, it will not mean the referee made the wrong call the first time.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The judgement touches on the issues of law as well as the integrity of the process. Once the ruling is out, I'm certain it will be vigorously debated whether the elections were really held contrary to the constitution. That bit doesn't concern me at all, I'll leave that to legal minds, and I can assure you that even there,there will never be any consensus.

What concerns me is the integrity bit. In short,the results were hopelessly unreliable. Babu did not go to court because of a principle called integrity; he went there because he felt whatever lacked in the election disadvantaged him. The court just aksin IEBC to remedy that and repeat. So if they did and he still lost,the remedy never disadvantaged Babu in the first place. It's only the Court imagined they did.

I see. But if Baba went to court to complain of problems that he felt disadvantaged him and the court asked IEBC to fix them and they did and he still lost, the conclusion is Raila imagined it, not the court. Its like if you complain to a referee that a goal is wrongly scored and he sees yes, the scorer was ahead of the ball on the other side and cancels it. If you score again the next minute without flouting the rules, it will not mean the referee made the wrong call the first time.

Exactly.  It's the fucking rules.  I am starting to get bewildered that this is not so obvious.

[bryan275]

The judgement touches on the issues of law as well as the integrity of the process. Once the ruling is out, I'm certain it will be vigorously debated whether the elections were really held contrary to the constitution. That bit doesn't concern me at all, I'll leave that to legal minds, and I can assure you that even there,there will never be any consensus.

What concerns me is the integrity bit. In short,the results were hopelessly unreliable. Babu did not go to court because of a principle called integrity; he went there because he felt whatever lacked in the election disadvantaged him. The court just aksin IEBC to remedy that and repeat. So if they did and he still lost,the remedy never disadvantaged Babu in the first place. It's only the Court imagined they did.

I see. But if Baba went to court to complain of problems that he felt disadvantaged him and the court asked IEBC to fix them and they did and he still lost, the conclusion is Raila imagined it, not the court. Its like if you complain to a referee that a goal is wrongly scored and he sees yes, the scorer was ahead of the ball on the other side and cancels it. If you score again the next minute without flouting the rules, it will not mean the referee made the wrong call the first time.

Exactly.  It's the fucking rules.  I am starting to get bewildered that this is not so obvious.

My conclusion is that jubilee has done a number on their supporters.  They've become willfully blind to crime, corruption and basic theft.

[vooke]

The judgement touches on the issues of law as well as the integrity of the process. Once the ruling is out, I'm certain it will be vigorously debated whether the elections were really held contrary to the constitution. That bit doesn't concern me at all, I'll leave that to legal minds, and I can assure you that even there,there will never be any consensus.

What concerns me is the integrity bit. In short,the results were hopelessly unreliable. Babu did not go to court because of a principle called integrity; he went there because he felt whatever lacked in the election disadvantaged him. The court just aksin IEBC to remedy that and repeat. So if they did and he still lost,the remedy never disadvantaged Babu in the first place. It's only the Court imagined they did.

I see. But if Baba went to court to complain of problems that he felt disadvantaged him and the court asked IEBC to fix them and they did and he still lost, the conclusion is Raila imagined it, not the court. Its like if you complain to a referee that a goal is wrongly scored and he sees yes, the scorer was ahead of the ball on the other side and cancels it. If you score again the next minute without flouting the rules, it will not mean the referee made the wrong call the first time.

No. The issues were real but not big or serious enough to disadvantage him.

Babu has severally claimed he was rigged out. He went to court to get justice, another shot in a fairer fashion. The courts bought his narrative. Imagine if Uhuru got exact same votes he got while Babu concedes. Do you honestly wish to tell me you won't have second thoughts on merits of his petition?

4 vs 2, who was right? Was invalidation well founded or was it populist?

The converse is true. If Uhunye loses miserably say gets 44% while Babu grabs 54%, the whole world will say Maraga saw irregularities, overturned the election,and the rerun proves it.

Look at the ruling without your legal shades. Look at an ordinary voter persuaded Babu's victory was robbed,goes back to the ballot and Babu loses. What does he make of this? It's a fat lie that Babu's victory was stolen. Maraga gave Babu a second chance he never deserved.

Your analogy is deeply flawed; scoring is highly probabilistic (1001 factors work into a goal) unlike elections which are deterministic(voting patterns don't shift in days) especially when repeated so closely. Yes,no election is like the other but there is no reasonable expectation of serious deviation

[MOON Ki]

vooke, with respect, that makes ZERO sense. Stop confusing judgments with MOAS. The soundness of court decisions is determined on their adherence to sound principles. This you have created here is an arbitrary and strange test. I have read and heard countless comments from the most ordinary wananchi on both sides who understand perfectly way that Maranga isnt saying anything but that the election should be done well per law. He is NOT sayin Raila won. Or that Uhuru lost. Everyone seems to understand that perfectly well.

So clearly do they understand the ruling that they are happy to do the election again so their win can or loss can be free or fair and they can accept. Who are these confused chaps you are envisioning who dont get this? I have never in my life seen a worse test for a judgment. They are not Pundits saying Uhuru lost or Raila won and I have seen no one yet thats confused about that.

Exactly.

On Vooke's (1): Maraga and his majority will stay in the history books for a very simple reason: the court was largely  expected to just stamp Uhuru's "victory".    They did not do that; and indeed the anger, insults, and threats from the likes of Uhuru only reflect their astonishment.

(Further, the significance of the judiciary's showing of some spine goes well beyond the elections.)

On Vooke's (2), a point he keeps repeating in different forms: the logic is faulty.   

(i) We haven't seen the judgement, but a core part of it seems to be the process was so tainted that the numbers are meaningless and cannot be used to announce the winner.

(ii) Now, let us suppose that in Round 2, the same number of people vote in exactly the same way, there are no illegalities and irregularities, and Uhuru still wins by the same margin.  That would tell us absolutely nothing about the soundness of  the judgment in (i).    Whatever happens in Round 2 cannot possibly alter what happened in Round 1 and which was the basis of the judgement.   
 

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The judgement touches on the issues of law as well as the integrity of the process. Once the ruling is out, I'm certain it will be vigorously debated whether the elections were really held contrary to the constitution. That bit doesn't concern me at all, I'll leave that to legal minds, and I can assure you that even there,there will never be any consensus.

What concerns me is the integrity bit. In short,the results were hopelessly unreliable. Babu did not go to court because of a principle called integrity; he went there because he felt whatever lacked in the election disadvantaged him. The court just aksin IEBC to remedy that and repeat. So if they did and he still lost,the remedy never disadvantaged Babu in the first place. It's only the Court imagined they did.

I see. But if Baba went to court to complain of problems that he felt disadvantaged him and the court asked IEBC to fix them and they did and he still lost, the conclusion is Raila imagined it, not the court. Its like if you complain to a referee that a goal is wrongly scored and he sees yes, the scorer was ahead of the ball on the other side and cancels it. If you score again the next minute without flouting the rules, it will not mean the referee made the wrong call the first time.

Exactly.  It's the fucking rules.  I am starting to get bewildered that this is not so obvious.

My conclusion is that jubilee has done a number on their supporters.  They've become willfully blind to crime, corruption and basic theft.

I don't know if it's willful or they just don't consider it corruption and theft.  Because if you steal a chicken, people will kill you.  It means on some level they know when something is wrong.  Unfortunately it's a trait they share with NASA supporters.

[Nefertiti]

I guess in Robina's eyes Chiloba is in the habit of committing illegalities just for the fun of it.  Nothing to see here.

Chiloba has not run other elections before to the best of my knowledge, I could be wrong. He was hired as IEBC CEO along with Chebukati after NASA hounded the previous officials out of office. What habits is he in - is he honest? I don't know. Because of extreme propaganda from Jubilee and NASA, I chose to believe few things such as information from the court ruling. They ruled there were grave flaws, not bribery and outright sabotage like you may have concluded. Possibly just incompetence? They didn't find rigging either, that's a convenient assumption too. They absolved Uhuru of mischief, however you want him barred from this and future elections. Why do you accept the invalidation but not the absolution?

It's understandable why you and I may see the ruling from different viewpoints: we support Raila to different extents and for reasons apart. I am unconvinced there was rigging but wish Raila the best in the re-run.

[vooke]

On Vooke's (1): Maraga and his majority will stay in the history books for a very simple reason: the court was largely  expected to just stamp Uhuru's "victory".    They did not do that; and indeed the anger, insults, and threats from the likes of Uhuru only reflect their astonishment.

(Further, the significance of the judiciary's showing of some spine goes well beyond the elections.)

On Vooke's (2), a point he keeps repeating in different forms: the logic is faulty.   

(i) We haven't seen the judgement, but a core part of it seems to be the process was so tainted that the numbers are meaningless and cannot be used to announce the winner.

(ii) Now, let us suppose that in Round 2, the same number of people vote in exactly the same way, there are no illegalities and irregularities, and Uhuru still wins by the same margin.  That would tell us absolutely nothing about the soundness of  the judgment in (i).    Whatever happens in Round 2 cannot possibly alter what happened in Round 1 and which was the basis of the judgement.   
 

(I) by secret ballot;
(ii) free from violence, intimidation, improper in uence or corruption;
(iii) conducted by an independent body;
(iv) transparent; and
(v) administered in an impartial, neutral, ef cient, accurate and accountable manner.

Looking at our constitutional definition of free and fair, it is quite possible that Uhuru's 54% was real. For instance, transparency alone is enough to call an election not free and fair. But that's is not to mean a candidate padded their votes. Accurate means his real votes were +/- 54%. Neutral may or may not affect a candidate's performance...and so forth.

Maraga (and Babu of course) had better pray that whatever ways the election fell short of constitutional and electoral laws principles,Uhuru's REAL votes were way less than 54%, else he will be another crack judge who wasted Kenya's two months.

[Nefertiti]

Turnout in central was the highest, generally toying with the limits of possibility.  Numbers you only see in countries with mandatory voting.  I am on a phone so I can't share the spreadsheet.

The results in PDF
https://www.iebc.or.ke/uploads/resources/m3f8arLNjp.pdf

And in Excel
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2rMMQJiqMB8ZUlyd05MbmIwOGM/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msexcel

Of course it was not low,but not substantially higher than national average

Wait, on second thought it was very high. Approaching 90%

Thanks, that spreadhseet has apostrophes and needs cleansing before delving in.  I'll do it later when I get to a bigger screen.  Assuming that turnout was as you say 90%, and Uhuru and co still needed to stuff the ballots, then his 70%+1 is just load of bull. 

Next time rigging will be very tricky.

This is why he's driving around hurling abuse.  Chap knows his goose is cooked.  Worse so now that he's been caught stealing.

These turnout records are OK - 86% max. They are higher in Jubilee which appears to explain the now invalid 54%. No county or constituency has 100% turnout. I am still waiting to see the stuffed polling stations list from someone... - Windy?

[bryan275]

On Vooke's (1): Maraga and his majority will stay in the history books for a very simple reason: the court was largely  expected to just stamp Uhuru's "victory".    They did not do that; and indeed the anger, insults, and threats from the likes of Uhuru only reflect their astonishment.

(Further, the significance of the judiciary's showing of some spine goes well beyond the elections.)

On Vooke's (2), a point he keeps repeating in different forms: the logic is faulty.   

(i) We haven't seen the judgement, but a core part of it seems to be the process was so tainted that the numbers are meaningless and cannot be used to announce the winner.

(ii) Now, let us suppose that in Round 2, the same number of people vote in exactly the same way, there are no illegalities and irregularities, and Uhuru still wins by the same margin.  That would tell us absolutely nothing about the soundness of  the judgment in (i).    Whatever happens in Round 2 cannot possibly alter what happened in Round 1 and which was the basis of the judgement.   
 

(I) by secret ballot;
(ii) free from violence, intimidation, improper in uence or corruption;
(iii) conducted by an independent body;
(iv) transparent; and
(v) administered in an impartial, neutral, ef cient, accurate and accountable manner.

Looking at our constitutional definition of free and fair, it is quite possible that Uhuru's 54% was real. For instance, transparency alone is enough to call an election not free and fair. But that's is not to mean a candidate padded their votes. Accurate means his real votes were +/- 54%. Neutral may or may not affect a candidate's performance...and so forth.

Maraga (and Babu of course) had better pray that whatever ways the election fell short of constitutional and electoral laws principles,Uhuru's REAL votes were way less than 54%, else he will be another crack judge who wasted Kenya's two months.

My position is that jubilee needn't have stuffed ballots had they had the numbers. 

[vooke]

These turnout records are OK - 86% max. They are higher in Jubilee which appears to explain the now invalid 54%. No county or constituency has 100% turnout. I am still waiting to see the stuffed polling stations list from someone... - Windy?

Robina,
The idea is if turnout was higher in Central than the 'average', the excess was stuffed ballots.

What I find more ridiculous is claims that Jubilee rigged in NASWA strongholds. Like they would have been called out right away. I can tell you for free that even if Babu won in 2013 and was the president, it would be nigh impossible to rig in Kiambu. You don't steal with all them hostile negroes eyeballing you.

[bryan275]

These turnout records are OK - 86% max. They are higher in Jubilee which appears to explain the now invalid 54%. No county or constituency has 100% turnout. I am still waiting to see the stuffed polling stations list from someone... - Windy?

Robina,
The idea is if turnout was higher in Central than the 'average', the excess was stuffed ballots.

What I find more ridiculous is claims that Jubilee rigged in NASWA strongholds. Like they would have been called out right away. I can tell you for free that even if Babu won in 2013 and was the president, it would be nigh impossible to rig in Kiambu. You don't steal with all them hostile negroes eyeballing you.

Vooke, the stuffing was e-stuffing.  It wasn't done locally in katch.  There's an analysis of the Jirongo angle doing the rounds.

http://www.kenyainsights.com/jirongo/

Explains it.

[vooke]

My position is that jubilee needn't have stuffed ballots had they had the numbers. 

True, but did he stuff ballots?
That's an assumption.

 And my point is,while all irregularities and illegalities are wrong, the most important ones are those that suppress or outrightly rob your opponent of their genuine votes while padding yours.

Babu couldn't care less if the results were recorded on a serviette so long as he got his votes, but he'd be worried stiff if his votes were stolen before being recorded on form 34A with currency-grade security features.

[bryan275]

My position is that jubilee needn't have stuffed ballots had they had the numbers. 

True, but did he stuff ballots?
That's an assumption.

 And my point is,while all irregularities and illegalities are wrong, the most important ones are those that suppress or outrightly rob your opponent of their genuine votes while padding yours.

Babu couldn't care less if the results were recorded on a serviette so long as he got his votes, but he'd be worried stiff if his votes were stolen before being recorded on form 34A with currency-grade security features.

The fact the 34As were forged, tells us that the original counts were suppressed and possibly destroyed.  This is further explained by the hackers that deleted 34As off the servers.  Someone was on a clean up of evidence.

Additional ballots or counts of ballots were introduced to create the "winning" margin and put it beyond contention.   We need access to the evidence that nasa put forward.  The other clue is the bitter opposition that ngatia and muite had of Orengos IT report.  Nasa need to release it in full.  It must have had gems in it. 

[Nefertiti]

My position is that jubilee needn't have stuffed ballots had they had the numbers. 

True, but did he stuff ballots?
That's an assumption.

 And my point is,while all irregularities and illegalities are wrong, the most important ones are those that suppress or outrightly rob your opponent of their genuine votes while padding yours.

Babu couldn't care less if the results were recorded on a serviette so long as he got his votes, but he'd be worried stiff if his votes were stolen before being recorded on form 34A with currency-grade security features.

The fact the 34As were forged, tells us that the original counts were suppressed and possibly destroyed.  This is further explained by the hackers that deleted 34As off the servers.  Someone was on a clean up of evidence.

Additional ballots or counts of ballots were introduced to create the "winning" margin and put it beyond contention.   We need access to the evidence that nasa put forward.  The other clue is the bitter opposition that ngatia and muite had of Orengos IT report.  Nasa need to release it in full.  It must have had gems in it.

bryan,

I am waiting for Maraga's detailed ruling but I don't believe this story from the information available currently. If the forms were forged, why does NASA not have a single photo/image (taken by phone/camera) of the original unforged forms? Those would surely prove rigging. Omollo tells us that NASA agents did not take a single photo because they were afraid of Matiang'i. Imagine that - despite the presence of local  & international media & observers - NASA agents were too scared to do their job - to take a single photo of the legit results that were later forged. 11K of those. However they were not too scared to append their signatures to the forgeries  Something is really flawed about this explanation. It is at this point that I grew cold feet about NASA's claims.

The detailed ruling will tell us if the deep flaws were due to rigging or incompetence or whatever - hopefully too in whose favor.

[Kadame7]

NASA presented something like 5,000 of their own agents copies to the court. That we have not seen them on nipate does not mean they don't exist. And while we are at it, why would anyone resort to unauthorized forms after they had been issued proper forms, and then to fo that to the tune of thousands? Thousands of agents just decided to dump the forms they were issued and replace them with different forms...why exactly would that happen?

Why would anyone risk contempt charges rather than permit access to the servers as ordered on live TV by the top court? What were they afraid of? The log copies they gave already showed unauthorized access and delition of forms, and the fact that the over 40, 000 KIEMS never communicated with the IEBC server but that all uploads happened from a mere 277 places...I mean seriously...that reminds me of the "Omolloesque" 'remote voting' charges that were ridiculed on this board for endless weeks.

Robina, you say you are objective but you arent. You have a position: there was no rigging, and from that you are setting the standards of proof that would be acceptable to you. If no one produces a photo, none of the other smelly things matter as far as evidence go. Any explanation would be preferable to interference until you see a photo. It is an ok position but it is a position on one side, just like Bryan's. (And mine). Its not neutral.