How to Rig and Election

[bryan275]

Omorlo,
The 10/11% 'constant' gap is derived from the portal. I honestly don't believe anything extracted from the portal will help NASWA's cause.

The reason is simple; the keyed in figures are/were not final. Given the Constituency results are final, National Tallying Center's eole in cooking figures is somewhat diminished. Plus unfortunately we don't have any chronology of how the Constituency results streamed in.

I can predict IEBC's excuse will be, 'the results were provisional.'

Which makes the"winner" provisional too?

[vooke]

Omorlo,
The 10/11% 'constant' gap is derived from the portal. I honestly don't believe anything extracted from the portal will help NASWA's cause.

The reason is simple; the keyed in figures are/were not final. Given the Constituency results are final, National Tallying Center's eole in cooking figures is somewhat diminished. Plus unfortunately we don't have any chronology of how the Constituency results streamed in.

I can predict IEBC's excuse will be, 'the results were provisional.'

Which makes the"winner" provisional too?

Yeah, based on the portal,but was he declared based on the portal?

[Omollo]

1. Nowhere have I said this in support of the petition.
2. This is a rebuttal of the claim that the results were transmitted "randomly"
3. The portal is supposed to eventually have the accurate results. Already the senate results for Trans Nzioa have been "overturned".

Omorlo,
The 10/11% 'constant' gap is derived from the portal. I honestly don't believe anything extracted from the portal will help NASWA's cause.

The reason is simple; the keyed in figures are/were not final. Given the Constituency results are final, National Tallying Center's eole in cooking figures is somewhat diminished. Plus unfortunately we don't have any chronology of how the Constituency results streamed in.

I can predict IEBC's excuse will be, 'the results were provisional.'

[Omollo]

The Court of appeal upheld the High court decision to strike out the law providing for Provisional results.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I guess the portal doesn't matter except when it confirms the result.  The idea that it was part of making the election transparent, clear and verifiable goes out the window the moment it does not support the process.  All said without batting an eyelid.

[vooke]

I guess the portal doesn't matter except when it confirms the result.  The idea that it was part of making the election transparent, clear and verifiable goes out the window the moment it does not support the process.  All said without batting an eyelid.

Data entry errors we're anticipated. I shared that Mutula Kilonzo tweet as well as IEBC's to this effect. The figures are good but not error free. Good in the sense that there is little to zero variance with the final results.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I guess the portal doesn't matter except when it confirms the result.  The idea that it was part of making the election transparent, clear and verifiable goes out the window the moment it does not support the process.  All said without batting an eyelid.

Data entry errors we're anticipated. I shared that Mutula Kilonzo tweet as well as IEBC's to this effect. The figures are good but not error free. Good in the sense that there is little to zero variance with the final results.

Therefore it matters.  Or not?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Forget this arguement about the portal, IEBC did not use this electronically submitted results to declare a winner. Find evidence on how form 34c does not agree with form 34b and 34b does not agree with 34a.

Just like how we did in 2013 and 2007.  Right?

[vooke]

1. Nowhere have I said this in support of the petition.
2. This is a rebuttal of the claim that the results were transmitted "randomly"
3. The portal is supposed to eventually have the accurate results. Already the senate results for Trans Nzioa have been "overturned".

So far IEBC claims they relayed keyed in results from the stations. Is maintain the portal results were random on this account.

Yes the portal results were supposed to be accurate but I think IEBC and the Senate committee anticipated errors.

Look at article number 4 ,Transmission of Results , paragraph 2

Press Statement - Update on Elections Preparedness - 4th August 2017
Read yesterday at Bomas of Kenya. #WeweNdioKusema #ElectionsKE2017 pic.twitter.com/SWC6sRV747

— IEBC (@IEBCKenya) August 5, 2017

?s=09

Here's Mutula Kilonzo confirming this I think;

The joint select Commitee was aware that figures were subject to alterations & or amendments. This impasse in wholly unnecessary.

— Mutula KilonzoJR CBS (@GvnMutula) August 9, 2017

I doubt any serious argument can be sustained against anticipated errors.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Affidavit by Ole Kina

Thanks for sharing.  Hopefully the names in there remain safe.  Nobody wants to be involved this situation in any way.  It almost reminds me of ICC and witness intimidation, bribery and elimination.

Do you know why Muhati was suspended?

Bumping this up.

[RV Pundit]

Muhati failed to avail required info KPMG the auditors appointed to look into IEBC

[Omollo]

vooke

How long do you intend to recycle this Mutula Kilonzo jr tweet?

That aside: We have two issues:

1. Were the results were transmitted randomly
2. Why was there maintained a steady, unchanging gap between the "winning" candidate and the "losing" candidate?
3. Is 2 (above) the result of 1(above)
4. Upon what evidence did the IEBC base it declaration of results

My response:

1. They may well have been transmitted randomly. If that be the case, then every time the field offices transmitted say 3000 votes for Raila, Uhuru got exactly or near exactly the same. I can assure you that you have a greater chance of winning ALL the major world lotteries before that happens
2. The steady, unchanging gap between the two could only be maintained by a computer algorithm. This was first seen when during testing, it deducted 1 vote from Raila. If they allow the result to move from 99% to 100% you will see wonders. Uhuru would reach over 9M while Raila would get 8M (a different topic).
3. Some IT quack has tried to explain that the randomness caused 2. In fact I wish he had tried the exact opposite. If he had said the IEBC arranged for specific polling stations to transmit at certain times based on the perceived strengths of the candidates, it could have made more sense. Dismiss it as cheap uneducated propaganda
4. The IEBC did not use the electronic results to declare a winner; And did not have all the Form 34B and 34As with 11,000 missing at the time. So my bet is that State House gave them the figures to announce.

So far IEBC claims they relayed keyed in results from the stations. Is maintain the portal results were random on this account.

Yes the portal results were supposed to be accurate but I think IEBC and the Senate committee anticipated errors.

Look at article number 4 ,Transmission of Results , paragraph 2

Here's Mutula Kilonzo confirming this I think;

I doubt any serious argument can be sustained against anticipated errors.

[vooke]

vooke

How long do you intend to recycle this Mutula Kilonzo jr tweet?

That aside: We have two issues:

1. Were the results were transmitted randomly
2. Why was there maintained a steady, unchanging gap between the "winning" candidate and the "losing" candidate?
3. Is 2 (above) the result of 1(above)
4. Upon what evidence did the IEBC base it declaration of results

My response:

1. They may well have been transmitted randomly. If that be the case, then every time the field offices transmitted say 3000 votes for Raila, Uhuru got exactly or near exactly the same. I can assure you that you have a greater chance of winning ALL the major world lotteries before that happens
2. The steady, unchanging gap between the two could only be maintained by a computer algorithm. This was first seen when during testing, it deducted 1 vote from Raila. If they allow the result to move from 99% to 100% you will see wonders. Uhuru would reach over 9M while Raila would get 8M (a different topic).
3. Some IT quack has tried to explain that the randomness caused 2. In fact I wish he had tried the exact opposite. If he had said the IEBC arranged for specific polling stations to transmit at certain times based on the perceived strengths of the candidates, it could have made more sense. Dismiss it as cheap uneducated propaganda
4. The IEBC did not use the electronic results to declare a winner; And did not have all the Form 34B and 34As with 11,000 missing at the time. So my bet is that State House gave them the figures to announce.

I will not weary you on back and forth arguments on randomness and the 'constant' gap. I leave it at that.

I believe IEBC replying affidavit will simply deny declaring results without all the forms 34A and B.


There was a meeting at Bomas that Ledama alludes to between the principals and IEBC. I saw them on TV. They came out and said IEBC had promised to look into their issues before declaration,but it was a charade because the results were declared anyway albeit hours later than initially planned.

I know NASWA are well meaning, but I wouldn't trust their word on the subject of this meeting unless I independently verified it. Do you have any idea what was discussed?

There's a bit I heard about Constituency ROs taking responsibility for the final results declared or something.

[KenyanPlato]

TOP 10 COUNTIES WITH HIGHEST PRESIDENTIAL VOTER TURNOUT
1. Kirinyaga 88.08%
2. Muranga 87.08%
3. Nyeri 87.04%
4. Nyandarua 86.62%
5. Homa Bay 84.92%
6. Turkana 84.80%
7. West Pokot 84.32%
8. Kiambu 84.06%
9. Migori 83.30%
10. Siaya 83.26%
While the following ten counties recorded the lowest % turnout:
1. Trans Nzoia 74.09%
2. Taita Taveta 73.95%
3. Wajir 73.51%
4. Lamu 73.30%
5. Nairobi City 72.68%
6. Isiolo 72.50%
7. Garissa 70.25%
8. Kwale 66.82%
9. Kilifi 65.36%
10. Mombasa 59.94%
Tonight 10 highest and lowest constituencies.
Watch this space!!!!

[Empedocles]

Omollo,

We may not agree on much and I know you're still convinced I'm a jubilee sympathizer (the typical simplistic thinking of either you're with us or you're against us. Bah humbug!).

Whatever.

Anywho, there's one thing which, even though I really couldn't give a hoot who won (reasons why is a story for another day...maybe), convinced me that NASA has nothing in the petition is this one picture:

You wanna know why?

"Grandstanding is often applied to politicians or other public figures perceived to be using tactics designed to call attention to themselves instead of the issues".

This whole grandstanding charade is only about one thing (purposely left unsaid) and, as planned, NASA supporters fell for it hook, line, sinker, fishing pole, and bucket. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this petition is DOA and was only filed to galvanize supporters.

And you know what the funny thing is (not haha funny, mind you)? Once Uhuru's (along with his kleptomaniac deputy's) re-election is upheld by the SCOK, it's not gonna make any difference to NASA supporters, what lies right in front of their eyes. Not a single bit.

But then again, that's how magicians do their tricks.

[Omollo]

I will assume you are raising a genuine concern and respond to you. If I find I am wasting my time, I will promptly switch on the ignore button.

1. You are concerned by the photo because to you Raila and Kalonzo are grandstanding by carrying the "petition" for the media: Here is the response: NASA and indeed anybody who tried to file a petition against Uhuru was subjected to inhuman harassment. One prominent woman was abducted, assaulted and left for dead. She chose not to go public.

Uhuru pulled no punches raiding five locations (three publicized) where NASA lawyers were preparing the petition. A Few hours to the deadline and Uhuru upped the ante, setting up roadblocks and pouring police on the road from Raila's home to the courts. The petition could be impounded and destroyed at any of the places.

It was then made clear that to succeed the principals must be involved. Phone calls were made to all people in NASA who matter and who if injured would generate international headlines to come to Raila's home for the journey to Milimani.

Inside the courts there were still NIS operatives who nearly made off with one bunch of papers containing the real Form 34As and some affidavits.

You may recall that the SCOK banned the submission of evidence out of time. Therefore ALL evidence was to be submitted. There is no room after to file something afterwards.

Raila need not have come to the court. However without him and the principals, Uhuru would not have allowed that petition through. Only the presence of the international press summoned to come see Raila present the petition to the Registrar put a stop to it.

The information we have is that Ahmednassir and others are planning to have it knocked out on grounds that it was filed late.

[vooke]

I will assume you are raising a genuine concern and respond to you. If I find I am wasting my time, I will promptly switch on the ignore button.

1. You are concerned by the photo because to you Raila and Kalonzo are grandstanding by carrying the "petition" for the media: Here is the response: NASA and indeed anybody who tried to file a petition against Uhuru was subjected to inhuman harassment. One prominent woman was abducted, assaulted and left for dead. She chose not to go public.

Uhuru pulled no punches raiding five locations (three publicized) where NASA lawyers were preparing the petition. A Few hours to the deadline and Uhuru upped the ante, setting up roadblocks and pouring police on the road from Raila's home to the courts. The petition could be impounded and destroyed at any of the places.

It was then made clear that to succeed the principals must be involved. Phone calls were made to all people in NASA who matter and who if injured would generate international headlines to come to Raila's home for the journey to Milimani.

Inside the courts there were still NIS operatives who nearly made off with one bunch of papers containing the real Form 34As and some affidavits.

You may recall that the SCOK banned the submission of evidence out of time. Therefore ALL evidence was to be submitted. There is no room after to file something afterwards.

Raila need not have come to the court. However without him and the principals, Uhuru would not have allowed that petition through. Only the presence of the international press summoned to come see Raila present the petition to the Registrar put a stop to it.

The information we have is that Ahmednassir and others are planning to have it knocked out on grounds that it was filed late.

This is worse than what I read
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-lawyers-sought-refuge-at-Raila-residence/1056-4063996-vcykn4z/index.html


So it's either this petition has some realistic chance of success, or these are fabrications. I only trust Omorlo if his claims are corroborated. So it's true Jubilee is having nightmares. IEBC too. I think one of the commissioners will commit suicide...at least one

It can't be having chances of success if Judiciary is an appendage of Executive. So I'd say Jubilee guerilla tactics is the best proof of independence of the Judiciary

[Omollo]

Uhuru and Ruto decided to use the power of state to retain power.

This is a beast that is far moire dangerous than any party. They do not care if the judiciary is independent or not. They just can't take chances and want to make sure that the desired outcome is delivered to the current nominal head of it : Uhuru Kenyatta.

This is worse than what I read
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Nasa-lawyers-sought-refuge-at-Raila-residence/1056-4063996-vcykn4z/index.html


So it's either this petition has some realistic chance of success, or these are fabrications.

It can't be having chances of success if Judiciary is an appendage of Executive. So I'd say Jubilee guerilla tactics is the best proof of independence of the Judiciary

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I know I have asked this before.  But so many threads with the same subject.  So when can we expect to see the lawyers speaking to the judges about this petition?

[Omollo]

I know I have asked this before.  But so many threads with the same subject.  So when can we expect to see the lawyers speaking to the judges about this petition?