Final Comments on Elections 2017

[MOON Ki]

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As expected, a circus, on which I have little to say.   The little that I have is as follows.

Has there been some mischief in the conduct of these elections?  I'm sure of it; otherwise it would not be Kenyan Elections.  Just how much is the question.  Presumably the court cases will sort out some  things.    But did the Opposition really have a strong chance of winning?   Prior to the elections, I made various comments that were vigorously opposed, denied, etc., by people who saw only what they wanted to see.  Many of those comments were about the Opposition's preparation, which they should have started right after the 2013 elections.   Here is a summary from a couple of months ago:

My thoughts on these elections were that for the Opposition to win they would have to:

(a) ensure that their supporters---whether categorized by "tribe" or by "issues"---registered in massive numbers;

(b) do a better job on turnout than they did in 2013;

(c) the combination of (a) and (b) sufficient to ensure a "rig-proof" majority.

I wrote quite a bit on (a), and you, Omollo, and I exchanged views on the same.    I'm not sure that they did (a), but I haven't seen the official numbers, so I can't comment any further.   I don't know what the strategy and situation are with regard to (b), but I hope it does not revolve on the assumption (proven wrong in the past) that huge crowds at rallies mean so many votes in the bag.   

I have no great expertise in politics, but after the last elections, I did a "project-management exercise" on how the Opposition might go about winning the next elections---what they would have to do, when it have to be done, who would do what, where, plans for contingencies for missed deadlines and "non-deliverables", when to start (right after the last elections!), etc.  I have seen little of that. Yes, mine was an "amateur project plan", but still. 

http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=4567.msg32878#msg32878

To the future:

Regardless of how much mischief gets discovered, it is most likely that Jubilee will remain in power.   (Even with court cases, this is Kenya, and judges too are mindful of power.)   Taking a long-term view, that is not necessarily bad: Kenyans get serious about change only when the pain is sufficiently high, and another five years of Jubilee might just be what the doctor ordered.  In that context, even Sonko will be "good" for Nairobi.

For the other positions, all sorts of thieves and scoundrels have been voted into office.   By this time next year, Kenyans will be complaining: "Thieves and scoundrels, the entire lot!   We'll throw them out at the next elections!".   And so on it will go, as usual.

   

[Kadame6]

This time, Im totally with you.

[RV Pundit]

Accept the fact that dynamic duo ran the most serious campaign n stayed on message.

[Kadame6]

Accept the fact that dynamic duo ran the most serious campaign n stayed on message.

I thought MOAS was the thing. Predictable even long before campaigns....lol! Do you think if tbe opposition had ran a serious campaign and stayed on message they would have beaten your MOAS? Cant have it both ways Pundit...so your demands dont make sense in light of your claims over the past year

[vooke]

Accept the fact that dynamic duo ran the most serious campaign n stayed on message.

I thought MOAS was the thing. Predictable even long before campaigns....lol! Do you think if tbe opposition had ran a serious campaign and stayed on message they would have beaten your MOAS? Cant have it both ways Pundit...so your demands dont make sense in light of your claims over the past year

I don't think campaigns are inconsistent with MOAS

Politicians are going to ride on tribe whether they like it or not, but before they ride on that, they must be reasonably prominent. Prominence is where campaigns come in. They buy and maintain your prominence. Shebesh for instance went out of sight and that's where she lost her prominence. No amount of campaigning would save her

[MOON Ki]

Accept the fact that dynamic duo ran the most serious campaign n stayed on message.

Let us suppose, for the sake of argument, that I accept your claim.   How does it affect what I have written?

[Omollo]

Moon Ki

The Opposition working under very hostile circumstances managed to secure a win. The reason there is an impasse as of now is known to every Kenyan.

I am not sure about the part about Uhuru remaining in power. He lost too badly to attempt a Kibaki. The IEBC has been slowly but surely working through the mess and the information we have negates the view of automaticity in terms of holding on to power. He can do that if he is ready for another round of PEV. I am moderately convinced he lacks the stomach and stamina to withstand even one full week of mass action and the attendant killings. The tigger will be him being declared the winner. Just like Kibaki's swearing in unleashed hell in 2007. What is keeping people calm is the hope that the IEBC and Uhuru will see sense and not proceed on this journey.

I am willing to accept if to avoid shame, he agrees to a runoff in which he would eschew the acts of fraud and blatant electoral fraud. However there is the matter of MPs, Governors and MCAs who have also been rigged in.

If I digress, Kibaki partialy pulled it off because he only targeted the Presidency and never interfered with the other races with a few exceptions.Uhuru has gone for an omnibus rigging and that has simply mobilized forces that even Rasila has no control over.

For Kenya to change, the electoral system would have to be reformed along with the revival and strengthening of independent institutions. Jubilee has spent its time in office pulverizing all of the institutions to the extent that we are now where we were in 2007 when going to the courts was not an option.

I believe NASA will send a trial balloon to Njoki and Maraga's court and if it bursts believe you me, they will not step within 100KMs of the so called Supreme Court.

[Omollo]

Accept the fact that dynamic duo ran the most serious campaign n stayed on message.

Kindly keep Jubilee Post Rigging Propaganda out of some threads. We are all experts in spinning so please don't attempt to spin to spinners.
Accord as "professional" courtesy even as burglars meeting in a house salute each other.

[Kadame6]

Accept the fact that dynamic duo ran the most serious campaign n stayed on message.

I thought MOAS was the thing. Predictable even long before campaigns....lol! Do you think if tbe opposition had ran a serious campaign and stayed on message they would have beaten your MOAS? Cant have it both ways Pundit...so your demands dont make sense in light of your claims over the past year

I don't think campaigns are inconsistent with MOAS

Politicians are going to ride on tribe whether they like it or not, but before they ride on that, they must be reasonably prominent. Prominence is where campaigns come in. They buy and maintain your prominence. Shebesh for instance went out of sight and that's where she lost her prominence. No amount of campaigning would save her

You think the President and Deputy need campaigns to acquire or maintain prominence? Especially in their tribes? Lol c'mon vooke. They couldnt lose prominence if they paid to while holding those positions. Besides, MOAS is based on people who are already leaders. So unless a President/DPORK could realistically stand a chance of losing it to a nobody from their own tribe, campaigns have zero to do with it. The rest comes from gaining the allegiance of tribal and subtribal leaders. Thats MOAS. Campaigns assume you can go directly to the people...the thought!

My argument against what pundit is demanding is that he wants to CREDIT the result to campaign and messaging and not MOAS....which is so predictable he can tell you what the result will be next election.

[MOON Ki]

Omollo:

On the "hostile circumstances", my views, expressed here over a long period and summarized above, were that there was nevertheless a great deal that the Opposition could have and should have  done (if they wanted victory), and I saw little of it in the 4+ years since 2013.

On Uhuru and Jubilee holding onto power, by whatever means, this is Kenya, so the "odds" favour them.   But, of course, the Opposition must fight to uncover the mischief that was wrought.

[Kichwa]

Of course with the benefit of hindsight, NASA is fair game for those who never let an opportunity like this pass them, however, I am very proud of NASA because  they put together a coalition  that reflected this country, gathered private resources  and dared to go against an entrenched incumbent African government ran by thugs. The final chapter of their effort is not going to be written today or tomorrow but later on.  Meanwhile Kenyans can decide to give in to the thugs or keep fighting for what they believe to be right. That decision will be made at individual levels.  Some will become even more cynical and apolitical but others will fight on. That's the nature of the beast.

As expected, a circus, on which I actually have little to say.   The little is as follows.

Has there been some mischief in the conduct of these elections?  I'm sure of it; otherwise it would not be Kenyan Elections.  Just how much is the question.  Presumably the court cases will sort out some  things.    But did the Opposition really have a strong chance of winning?   Prior to the elections, I made various comments that were vigorously opposed, denied, etc., by people who saw only what they wanted to see.  Many of those comments were about the Opposition's preparation, which they should have started right after the 2013 elections.   Here is a summary from a couple of months ago:

My thoughts on these elections were that for the Opposition to win they would have to:

(a) ensure that their supporters---whether categorized by "tribe" or by "issues"---registered in massive numbers;

(b) do a better job on turnout than they did in 2013;

(c) the combination of (a) and (b) sufficient to ensure a "rig-proof" majority.

I wrote quite a bit on (a), and you, Omollo, and I exchanged views on the same.    I'm not sure that they did (a), but I haven't seen the official numbers, so I can't comment any further.   I don't know what the strategy and situation are with regard to (b), but I hope it does not revolve on the assumption (proven wrong in the past) that huge crowds at rallies mean so many votes in the bag.   

I have no great expertise in politics, but after the last elections, I did a "project-management exercise" on how the Opposition might go about winning the next elections---what they would have to do, when it have to be done, who would do what, where, plans for contingencies for missed deadlines and "non-deliverables", when to start (right after the last elections!), etc.  I have seen little of that. Yes, mine was an "amateur project plan", but still. 

http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=4567.msg32878#msg32878

To the future:

Regardless of how much mischief gets discovered, it is most likely that Jubilee will remain in power.   (Even with court cases, this is Kenya, and judges too are mindful of power.)   Taking a long-term view, that is not necessarily bad: Kenyans get serious about change only when the pain is sufficiently high, and another five years of Jubilee might just be what the doctor ordered.  In that context, even Sonko will be "good" for Nairobi.

For the other positions, all sorts of thieves and scoundrels have been voted into office.   By this time next year, Kenyans will be complaining: "Thieves and scoundrels, the entire lot!   We'll throw them out at the next elections!".   And so on it goes, as usual.

   

[MOON Ki]

Kichwa wrote:

Of course with the benefit of hindsight, NASA is fair game

I am not engaged in "hindsight analysis".   Those are views that I wrote well before the elections and are consistent with views I had been expressing here all along; Nipate has a search facility, if you care to use it. All I have done is put them up again.

Of course, your response is not entirely unexpected.    You have had threads such as "This election may shock everyone", and you put up a very strong disagreement when I suggested that you were wrong (and nobody would be shocked, etc.).   

[Kichwa]

Omollo:

On the "hostile circumstances", my views, expressed here over a long period and summarized above, were that there was nevertheless a great deal that the Opposition could have and should have  done (if they wanted victory), and I saw little of it in the 4+ years since 2013.

On Uhuru and Jubilee holding onto power, by whatever means, this Kenya, so the "odds" favour them.   But, of course, the Opposition must fight to uncover the mischief that was wrought.

[vooke]

Accept the fact that dynamic duo ran the most serious campaign n stayed on message.

I thought MOAS was the thing. Predictable even long before campaigns....lol! Do you think if tbe opposition had ran a serious campaign and stayed on message they would have beaten your MOAS? Cant have it both ways Pundit...so your demands dont make sense in light of your claims over the past year

I don't think campaigns are inconsistent with MOAS

Politicians are going to ride on tribe whether they like it or not, but before they ride on that, they must be reasonably prominent. Prominence is where campaigns come in. They buy and maintain your prominence. Shebesh for instance went out of sight and that's where she lost her prominence. No amount of campaigning would save her

You think the President and Deputy need campaigns to acquire or maintain prominence? Especially in their tribes? Lol c'mon vooke. They couldnt lose prominence if they paid to while holding those positions. Besides, MOAS is based on people who are already leaders. So unless a President/DPORK could realistically stand a chance of losing it to a nobody from their own tribe, campaigns have zero to do with it. The rest comes from gaining the allegiance of tribal and subtribal leaders. Thats MOAS. Campaigns assume you can go directly to the people...the thought!

My argument against what pundit is demanding is that he wants to CREDIT the result to campaign and messaging and not MOAS....which is so predictable he can tell you what the result will be next election.

Of course, something to excite voters to turn out. That's where campaigning in their strongholds come in...no-brainer. MOAS models turnout.


I don't for a second think Uhuru felt threatened by Baba in Limuru/Kiambu, but he knows apathy in his turf can be deadly.

[Kadame6]

I agree with you vooke, I just disagree that what youre describing is MOAS. As an example, turnout was predicated on 2013 trends, one of Robina's disputes was precisely the failure to factor in different GOTV factors that may change turnout from time to time. The assumption was that it would hold based on the same pairing remaining. So I'm not sayin you are wrong about how things work in our elections, it just doesnt align with arguments Ive seen made by our resident Pundit ad infinitum.

[Kichwa]

The colonialists made us believe we are inferior to them intellectually but they used force to make sure the prophesy was fulfilled.  MOAS or tyranny of numbers cannot work on their own if not enforced by stealing votes from registration all the way to counting the votes. If MOAS was true then Msando and the young lady did not have to die such a brutal death. 

I agree with you vooke, I just disagree that what youre describing is MOAS. As an example, turnout was predicated on 2013 trends, one of Robina's disputes was precisely the failure to factor in different GOTV factors that change from time to time. So Im not sayinf you are wrong, but what you say DOESNT align with arguments Ive seen made by our resident Pundit ad nauseum.

[GeeMail]

MoonKi before you go away and make final comments I'd really like to know your view on the Form 34A debacle. Here is a case where IEBC has announced results on its website and is well on its way to declaring a winner. Then we are being informed not all form34As are in. In fact it seems they are still being signed. Do you remember the thread on the court case precisely tackling the issue of ROs and the role of Chebukati in Bomas? We thought it was wise of the courts to make the ROs results count and not Chebukati's gymnastics at Bomas. Now results are being declared without forms 34A. What is your final feeling on this? Is IEBC not working backwards instead? What is this indicative of?

[vooke]

I agree with you vooke, I just disagree that what youre describing is MOAS. As an example, turnout was predicated on 2013 trends, one of Robina's disputes was precisely the failure to factor in different GOTV factors that may change turnout from time to time. The assumption was that it would hold based on the same pairing remaining. So I'm not sayin you are wrong about how things work in our elections, it just doesnt align with arguments Ive seen made by our resident Pundit ad infinitum.

How's what I'm describing different from MOAS, or rather,what's your understanding of MOAS?

[vooke]

The colonialists made us believe we are inferior to them intellectually but they used force to make sure the prophesy was fulfilled.  MOAS or tyranny of numbers cannot work on their own if not enforced by stealing votes from registration all the way to counting the votes. If MOAS was true then Msando and the young lady did not have to die such a brutal death. 

I agree with you vooke, I just disagree that what youre describing is MOAS. As an example, turnout was predicated on 2013 trends, one of Robina's disputes was precisely the failure to factor in different GOTV factors that change from time to time. So Im not sayinf you are wrong, but what you say DOESNT align with arguments Ive seen made by our resident Pundit ad nauseum.

One can equallly and quite validly atate that MOAS is precisely why Msando had to go; the only way to beat RVGEMA juggernaut is by stealing

[MOON Ki]

MoonKi before you go away and make final comments I'd really like to know your view on the Form 34A debacle. Here is a case where IEBC has announced results on its website and is well on its way to declaring a winner. Then we are being informed not all form34As are in. In fact it seems they are still being signed. Do you remember the thread on the court case precisely tackling the issue of ROs and the role of Chebukati in Bomas? We thought it was wise of the courts to make the ROs results count and not Chebukati's gymnastics at Bomas. Now results are being declared without forms 34A. What is your final feeling on this? Is IEBC not working backwards instead? What is this indicative of?

I started to write a long response but then decided to "cross it out".   Instead, I will focus on a little (true) story.

Little (True) Story: I have heard of or read from many Kenyans, at all levels, complaining endlessly---and quite rightly too---about the pervasive corruption in our country.   Raila and his buddies have made endless noises about it.   Even H.E. Uhuru has not been left out: he has, in public, wrung his hands and exclaimed "Too much!  But, ngai!, nitafanya nini?".  Now, I remember looking at photos from an "anti-corruption demonstration" last year---smack in the middle of yet another huge scandal---and counting only about 30 people.    And something like half of that "crowd" consisted Boniface Mwangi and other NGO types on their day-job.  End of Little (True) Story.   

Getting back to your "request": Has there been some mischief in these elections?  It's Kenya;  I'd be astonished if there wasn't.     Has the IEBC been involved?   Quite possible.    But here's a question for you:

What are the signs out there that Kenyans really give a f**k about this Form 34A or, indeed, anything that they see as problematic in the tallying process, or a lack of transparency and integrity, or ... whatever?

Kichwa writes of a total-liberation struggle against a ruthless beast.  I am an upright citizen, so any struggle for total liberation will always have my full support.  And especially so when it's against a ruthless beast.   Sadly, however, nobody in Kenya is engaged in anything of the sort.   Kenya is a country that is slowly going to the dogs, with the "next generation" (a.k.a the "youth") mostly preoccupied with "hustling" (the males) or being "sponsored" (the females).   Most of the rest appear to be no more than clueless, tribal sheeple.   That, by the way, is a partial explanation for the support that the "ruthless beast" has from millions and millions. (I know my compatriots quite well, so I don't put much stock in claims, however noble or well-intentioned, that "Kenyans are better than that", "Kenyans really care about the issues", ...)

"This too shall pass" or "Kazi iendelee".   Your pick.  When Kenyans get ready, they will be ready.   Nothing to do with Form 123-ABC.

A final word or two: