If Kenya erupts after the elections

[Kichwa]

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https://awmagazine.org/dr-wandia-njoya- ... ul-change/

[Nefertiti]

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

You've left out the possibility of a winner being declared loser.  Is that intentional?

[Nefertiti]

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

You've left out the possibility of a winner being declared loser.  Is that intentional?

That's scenario 1. actually hence the teargas

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

You've left out the possibility of a winner being declared loser.  Is that intentional?

That's scenario 1. actually hence the teargas

If it's a clean win, I don't foresee any trouble.  Luos are not unhinged as many seem to suggest.

[Nefertiti]

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

You've left out the possibility of a winner being declared loser.  Is that intentional?

That's scenario 1. actually hence the teargas

If it's a clean win, I don't foresee any trouble.  Luos are not unhinged as many seem to suggest.

We all know "clean" is subjective in Zamunda. Heck, even in the US. Was 2013 a clean win?

[Nefertiti]

Windy have you seen the "apartheid era killer trucks" [sic] Just get ready for scenario 1. Safer out there in botsphere.

891606799362605058[/tweet]/photo/1]

Polls: State acquires more anti-riot gearhttps://t.co/frX7mkGeet
^KW pic.twitter.com/VVJQ9lJQlJ

— The Standard Digital (@StandardKenya) July 30, 2017

/photo/1[/url]

[Kichwa]

Robina.  Being a cynic is a choice and not the reality that we have to accept.  This country is where it is today because some people dared to believe that change is possible. Yes, its been three steps forward and two steps backwards but there has been a net gain in areas of democracy and freedoms.  Some of us are dreamers and be believe that  change is possible and real. I do not pay Pundits MOAS any mind because its all about cynicism-that we are doomed into voting along tribal lines.  If ouru believed that he would not be campaigning so hard and getting frustrated.  Even if Ouru wins I will never believe in the premise of MOAS because its insulting and I believe we are better than that.

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

[vooke]

Summary

There never will be credible elections with a Babu loss.

Question is, how much blood will be shed after rejecting the results

[RV Pundit]

I think Robina nailed it.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

You've left out the possibility of a winner being declared loser.  Is that intentional?

That's scenario 1. actually hence the teargas

If it's a clean win, I don't foresee any trouble.  Luos are not unhinged as many seem to suggest.

We all know "clean" is subjective in Zamunda. Heck, even in the US. Was 2013 a clean win?

I think there is still a threshold for free and fair elections.  If most systems are go, people will accept without major misgivings, if Raila loses.  I find it comical that you associate the jubilant supporter with maturity which you deny the NASA supporters.  What's the rationale?

[Nefertiti]

Change was achieved by the constitution which the best path was parliamentary but sadly turned out a purely presidential. The rest are details as you cannot tell us "change" will only happen once your hero wins. Raila supported the pure presidency that entrenched the tyranny of numbers; chiding them now is hypocrisy. He praised Mutunga (after thwarting Vishram) and went cobra on him after the petition. He claimed during the campaigns that he was best placed to implement the constitution as UhuRuto were watermelons; he now has a prime minister. If Jubilee loses, Ruto as opposition leader would demand all kinds of "reforms". If Ruto wins in 2022 and mistreats Kikuyus, they will swiftly join the "change" bandwagon.

Nothing new under the sun. Sorry I don't believe in any change except the one that stops ruling class impunity. Wait a minute, noone is promising this one.

No, Kenya will not explode. One of two things will happen.

1. Uhuru wins - NASA cries rigging. Expect riots and teargas. In a few days Kambas then Luhyas abandon Luos to a lone cause

2. Raila wins - Uhuru goes home, Ruto becomes opposition leader. Kikuyus await the decree condemning them to short trousers & slavery. Luos await manna & free housing. Both wait in vain

You've left out the possibility of a winner being declared loser.  Is that intentional?

That's scenario 1. actually hence the teargas

If it's a clean win, I don't foresee any trouble.  Luos are not unhinged as many seem to suggest.

We all know "clean" is subjective in Zamunda. Heck, even in the US. Was 2013 a clean win?

I think there is still a threshold for free and fair elections.  If most systems are go, people will accept without major misgivings, if Raila loses.  I find it comical that you associate the jubilant supporter with maturity which you deny the NASA supporters.  What's the rationale?

I don't. The jubilant is in charge of violence apparatus - so his supporters are expected to be "peaceful" while those of NASA are not. Both are paranoid of the others' intentions. During the Moi days - 90s - the jubilant Gema wing was deemed violent, unhinged etc.

[Kichwa]

Robina, I think you are stuck in the current reality like Pundit's MOAS. If this elections is conducted in a transparent way, and Raila lost fair and square you will be surprised how quickly Raila will concede and congratulate Ouru. In 2008, many people including WSR urged Raila to refuse the peaceful resolution which paved way to NARA but he chose peace. Anybody who knows Raila is not worried about him being the cause of violence. NASA leaders have not killed anybody while I cannot say the same about the other side. Change, real change is very possible with a change in regime. Africa can be changed and Kenya can lead the way under Raila. Stop the cynicism and the defeatist attitude paraded as wisdom and let people of Kenya freely dream and strive for a better future. We have to stop being slaves of the past. I remember when Kibaki made the Mugumo tree statement. That was the conventional wisdom at that time. 

[Nefertiti]

I dream too Kichwa. We just have different dreams. I am voting Raila not because he will bring conventional reforms - I don't buy that for a minute after Caroli, Kajwang, etc - but because UhuRuto's defeat will turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a chance. That's the real change I want - transition from tribalism to meritocracy.

Right now Sarai Omar Hassan cannot beat Joho regardless of the latter's mediocre performance. Why? -tribalism. Sterling Mutua might lose to Wavinya. Why? -tribalism. PK has zero chance vs drug dealer Sonko... I could go on.

That is the kind of change I am voting for not delusions about Raila miracles. You and Pundit stand to be the most disappointed:- Raila will consolidate power, reward his cronies and not a penny more will be devolved... ditto WSR. Don't lie to yourself.

[Kichwa]

I hear you.  I am not talking about revolution or some wild dreams either.  I for example think we have come far and Ouruto .  I heard Raila talk passionately about devolution/new katiba/freedom of press etc., a long time ago and it sounded like a dream back then.  These are the kinds of dreams I have-nothing crazy.

On the issue of tribalism: I think we are too quick to give tribalism credit or blame it because it sticks out like a sore thumb in our culture.

I dream too Kichwa. We just have different dreams. I am voting Raila not because he will bring conventional reforms - I don't buy that for a minute after Caroli, Kajwang, etc - but because UhuRuto's defeat will turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a chance. That's the real change I want - transition from tribalism to meritocracy.

Right now Sarai Omar Hassan cannot beat Joho regardless of the latter's mediocre performance. Why? -tribalism. Sterling Mutua might lose to Wavinya. Why? -tribalism. PK has zero chance vs drug dealer Sonko... I could go on.

That is the kind of change I am voting for not delusions about Raila miracles. You and Pundit stand to be the most disappointed:- Raila will consolidate power, reward his cronies and not a penny more will be devolved... ditto WSR. Don't lie to yourself.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I think there is still a threshold for free and fair elections.  If most systems are go, people will accept without major misgivings, if Raila loses.  I find it comical that you associate the jubilant supporter with maturity which you deny the NASA supporters.  What's the rationale?

I don't. The jubilant is in charge of violence apparatus - so his supporters are expected to be "peaceful" while those of NASA are not. Both are paranoid of the others' intentions. During the Moi days - 90s - the jubilant Gema wing was deemed violent, unhinged etc.

Ultimately I still think it's perception of lack of fairness that drives the violence.  If the incumbent is declared the loser, it is very very unlikely that they were rigged out.  Very likely that the process was clean.  So there would be no issues on that basis alone.  Not because they have the means of violence. 

[Kichwa]

I must add that if the process is transparent and the opposition loses, it will be very clear because a lot of people can add.  There will always be fanatic core supporters who will not accept defeat but what you need is a critical mass to accept the results and the only way is to be extremely transparent.  I believe that if Jubilee thought they were going to win as Pundit has unsuccessfully tried to convince us, they would have bended backwards to make the process as transparent as possible. MOAS as its predecessor, Tyranny of Numbers,  was intended to demoralize the opposition into submission but it failed miserably.  The opposition who was left for dead in 2013 and told to forget 2017,  ran this campaign like champions and are poised to win if they can sustain the moment for the next couple of days.  This is why I prefer dreamers to cynics who are always pouring water on peoples dreams by citing statistics and "reality"-F--CK statistics and MOAS.

I think there is still a threshold for free and fair elections.  If most systems are go, people will accept without major misgivings, if Raila loses.  I find it comical that you associate the jubilant supporter with maturity which you deny the NASA supporters.  What's the rationale?

I don't. The jubilant is in charge of violence apparatus - so his supporters are expected to be "peaceful" while those of NASA are not. Both are paranoid of the others' intentions. During the Moi days - 90s - the jubilant Gema wing was deemed violent, unhinged etc.

Ultimately I still think it's perception of lack of fairness that drives the violence.  If the incumbent is declared the loser, it is very very unlikely that they were rigged out.  Very likely that the process was clean.  So there would be no issues on that basis alone.  Not because they have the means of violence.