Final Final MOAS

[vooke]

Ati I have never been right.  In your little world 2013 was the first election ever anywhere in the world.

Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.

Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.

They might win.  Or not.  But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete.  They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction.  People are helplessly partisan.  One is better off just waiting for 8/8.  Less than a week to go.

You are wrong and will be wrong, and your excuse will be rigging

[RV Pundit]

Kericho n Bomet definitely going to get wrong..Raila will score single digits.

[RV Pundit]

Adding Prof Charles Hornsby take

https://www.theelephant.info/future/2017/08/05/the-end-of-the-line-predicting-kenyas-vote-on-august/

Presidential
I still predict a Jubilee victory by 52% for Kenyatta and Ruto to 48% for Odinga and Musyoka, with all others less than 1% combined. On a 76% turnout, that would be just under 8 million votes for Jubilee and just over 7 million for NASA.

Gubernational.

At the 290 parliamentary constituencies level, it is near-impossible to apply the same level of scrutiny, but at a high level, the pattern is similar. Roughly 54% of parliamentary constituencies look like being pro-Jubilee (including affiliate parties and independents); 46% pro-NASA.

[RV Pundit]

Comparing FINAL MOAS & Charles Hornby.
- PRESIDENTIAL - 52% versus 47% -
-Turn out -76% versus MOAS 86%
-GOV (23 jubilee, 20 Nasa, 4 too close to call ) - MOAS (ANC 1 MCC 1 FDR 1 JUBILEE 27 WIPER 1 FORD K 1 ODM 11 INDEPENDENT 4)
-Parliament (54% versus 46%) - MOAS (55% for Jubilee, 38% for NASA, 7% for Independent & others parties).

[Nefertiti]

I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.

[RV Pundit]

Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately  read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so  hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.

Put your figures down.

I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.

[vooke]

Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately  read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so  hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.

Put your figures down.

I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.

I like that commentary.

[Kichwa]

What hopefully this election result will help you understand is the distinction between describing normative behavior and stating facts. 

Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately  read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so  hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.

Put your figures down.

I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.

[Nefertiti]

Guess - according to Global - Ruto will die in 2020

Until you learn to distinguish btw what you desire and what will pan out you'll not be able to dispassionately  read politics. That is difference btw Ngina and Njamba. Robina confuses what she wants with reality. GlobalCitizen although he would like different outcome is acutely aware of the reality. Kichwa Mbaya create his own universe. Omollo tries so  hard to literally fight reality - an exercise in futlity.

Put your figures down.

I agree with Hornsby - except on PORK . NASA executive with a hung parliament.

[Globalcitizen12]

Pundit,
Upload this to SCRIb or google share.. Or send them my inbox.. I need to review the numbers against results so that I can see how Good/bad the MOAS is

[RV Pundit]

I will share the excel shortly

[Nefertiti]

In a jiffy we can annoint this a new branch of science - or the Mother Of All (B)S.

[Globalcitizen12]

The moron fled to go back to kericho ..I asked fo the file. It promised to give it to me 3 hours ago. It is in naivasha now driving like an elephant on hest

[RV Pundit]

Attached the Final Final MOAS EXCEL

[Globalcitizen12]

Attached the Final Final MOAS EXCEL

THank you sir you are a tribal lord of our times

[Globalcitizen12]

I tweeked the numbers and it is so sad NASA has no path to presidency

[Nefertiti]

Jubilee reminds me of Hillary Clinton and her media choir. Trump had no path to the White House... cos of the "blue wall"... before the fat lady dude sang... and she got beaten like isukuti. The rest is history. Global here will be leading the #notmypresident procession.

I tweeked the numbers and it is so sad NASA has no path to presidency

[Globalcitizen12]

I do not vote in USA because to me it is a waste of time. I vote in local elections only and school board or referendum.

[vooke]

Pundito the Numbers Bandito

[RV Pundit]

Look good so far..but we will review MOAS once we have final final results.